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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST8| Press Your (Nintendo Direct) Luck!

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My predictions for the end of the year have not changed.

  • Fire Emblem 4 Remake
  • Metroid Prime 4
  • Pokemon Legends Z-A

The rest is a bonus.

If there's a new Donkey Kong, I see it coming out next year. Cross-gen or not.
 
jirou said:
soooo... is Horii allowed to say Dragon Quest XII is coming to the successor now? Perhaps on the 27th?
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As if Horii would've cared for Nintendo to officially speak first. ;D

Dude is pretty much untouchable, so outside of a "bad Horii, please don't do again" nothing would've happened if he felt like doing that again. ^^

Lintendo said:
Who? What? Context please?
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Horii flat out confirmed DQ XI for Switch (NX) back when it still wasn't officially fully announced / revealed, only acknowledge via PR as "NX".
 
Magic-Man said:
The June Direct will probably be the last Switch-only Direct ever, and might be the only General Direct this year. End of an era.
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So dumb on that last point! They really should've had a direct in Jan-March to advertise all the H1 titles. It only hurt games like Another Code and Endless Ocean
 
Ricimer said:
So dumb on that last point! They really should've had a direct in Jan-March to advertise all the H1 titles. It only hurt games like Another Code and Endless Ocean
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Ehh, I'd argue Another Code and Endless Ocean hurt Another Code and Endless Ocean. Both games were doomed to fail from the start.
 
Magic-Man said:
Ehh, I'd argue Another Code and Endless Ocean hurt Another Code and Endless Ocean. Both games were doomed to fail from the start.
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Endless Ocean maybe but Another Code was a high quality release that really could've used the additional Direct marketing.
 
Here's my timeline from April 21st, updated. Updates in bold and italics:
  • May 7th: fiscal briefing includes a text statement (ok, they tweeted) confirming a new console will be announced this fiscal year. [you are here]
  • May or June: Nintendo also confirms the return of Nintendo Selects, [Nintendo might be more traditional and do standard physical/digital Selects] available as digital-only discounts for NSO subscribers. Nintendo confirms the first official global pricecut for the Nintendo Switch family of systems.
  • May 14th: Nintendo announce Art Academy: Master Class Nintendo World Championships: NES Edition from EPD and indieszero, launching July 25th globally.
  • June 5th: Pokemon Presents drops, showing the first in-game footage of Pokemon Legends ZA and announces a release window of autumn/fall 2025. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time and Darkness also announced, launching August 22nd 2024.
  • July 3rd June 19th: Nintendo Direct finally happens.
For those who haven't looked at the full fiscal supplementary information, Nintendo forecast a 38% decline in both operating profit and net profit, hence my expectation of a Switch price cut and Nintendo Selects range before long.
 
They have a 13.5m forecast for this FY, which would be an insane hold from last year's 15m and given the line-up so far, they cannot get there without some real big guns.

Fire Emblem 4 remake and Metroid Prime 4 are definitely on the table, but both are not likely to appeal to a huge amount of people and as such won't be enough to meet the forecast.

Midori did say there was a Nintendo game in development with the codename Banquet. That's the kind of codename that could be attributed to a Mario Party game, so I think that's a possibility, and a big gun that can drive sales in the holiday/fall seasons.

Another potential big gun could be EPD Tokyo's long-rumored DK game. After 10 years without a proper game, this new game could get Returns numbers (aka over 5 million) on nostalgia alone. Bonus point if it's 3D, in which case, in light of how well Kirby and The Forgotten Land has performed (over 7.5 million in two years), it's definitely a title that could play a big part in helping to achieve the forecast.
 
entut1 said:
They have a 13.5m forecast for this FY, which would be an insane hold from last year's 15m and given the line-up so far, they cannot get there without some real big guns.

Fire Emblem 4 remake and Metroid Prime 4 are definitely on the table, but both are not likely to appeal to a huge amount of people and as such won't be enough to meet the forecast.

Midori did say there was a Nintendo game in development with the codename Banquet. That's the kind of codename that could be attributed to a Mario Party game, so I think that's a possibility, and a big gun that can drive sales in the holiday/fall seasons.

Another potential big gun could be EPD Tokyo's long-rumored DK game. After 10 years without a proper game, this new game could get Returns numbers (aka over 5 million) on nostalgia alone. Bonus point if it's 3D, in which case, in light of how well Kirby and The Forgotten Land has performed (over 7.5 million in two years), it's definitely a title that could play a big part in helping to achieve the forecast.
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Look, i love Fire Emblem. Love the series.
But not even a full new game would carry sales this much. And despite being a "new" game for the west, a remake won't do that even moreso.

And Prime 4 might be held back if it end up as a cross-gen game. (And let's be honest, it should be a cross-gen game.)

A bold price drop might be able to carry sales through the holidays. But i wouldn't be surprised if they either correct those estimates down at one of their next meetings, or increase the estimates after they've fully revealed and announced the successor, even if it would drop on the last day of the FY.
 
MisterSpo said:
Here's my timeline from April 21st, updated. Updates in bold and italics:
  • May 7th: fiscal briefing includes a text statement (ok, they tweeted) confirming a new console will be announced this fiscal year. [you are here]
  • May or June: Nintendo also confirms the return of Nintendo Selects, [Nintendo might be more traditional and do standard physical/digital Selects] available as digital-only discounts for NSO subscribers. Nintendo confirms the first official global pricecut for the Nintendo Switch family of systems.
  • May 14th: Nintendo announce Art Academy: Master Class Nintendo World Championships: NES Edition from EPD and indieszero, launching July 25th globally.
  • June 5th: Pokemon Presents drops, showing the first in-game footage of Pokemon Legends ZA and announces a release window of autumn/fall 2025. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time and Darkness also announced, launching August 22nd 2024.
  • July 3rd June 19th: Nintendo Direct finally happens.
For those who haven't looked at the full fiscal supplementary information, Nintendo forecast a 38% decline in both operating profit and net profit, hence my expectation of a Switch price cut and Nintendo Selects range before long
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I'll post my updated doomer/pessimist timeline for funsies:
  • May 7th hardware confirmation reveal for this FY [Confirmed]
  • June Direct showcasing the Switch 2's meager H2. FE4 Remake, Nintendo World Championships, Mario Party 12, WW HD, Prime 2 HD, Mario Sports Ultramix by Camelot
  • July-December: NOTHING
  • January 2025: Hardware concept reveal ala Switch 1 October 2016. Full reveal Summer 2025.
  • Feburary-May: Twitter announcements for the Switch's few 2025 games (Prime 3 HD, TP HD)
  • June 2025: Blowout reveal event, first time actually looking at Switch 2 games.
  • July-October: NOTHING
  • November 2025: Switch 2 launch.
Dread from it. Run from it. Accept the doom.
 
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entut1 said:
They have a 13.5m forecast for this FY, which would be an insane hold from last year's 15m and given the line-up so far, they cannot get there without some real big guns.

Fire Emblem 4 remake and Metroid Prime 4 are definitely on the table, but both are not likely to appeal to a huge amount of people and as such won't be enough to meet the forecast.

Midori did say there was a Nintendo game in development with the codename Banquet. That's the kind of codename that could be attributed to a Mario Party game, so I think that's a possibility, and a big gun that can drive sales in the holiday/fall seasons.

Another potential big gun could be EPD Tokyo's long-rumored DK game. After 10 years without a proper game, this new game could get Returns numbers (aka over 5 million) on nostalgia alone. Bonus point if it's 3D, in which case, in light of how well Kirby and The Forgotten Land has performed (over 7.5 million in two years), it's definitely a title that could play a big part in helping to achieve the forecast.
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Even if Nintendo pull out guaranteed 5 million plus or 10 million plus titles for later this year, that 13.5 million target for hardware is a tall order and so is the software target. Given the rate at which they expect profits to fall, I would say there's a fairly clear signal price cuts are coming, Nintendo Selects are now very likely in some capacity, and perhaps we'll see some permanent hardware bundles (or at least better value ones for this holiday season). Honestly I thought Nintendo would be more interested in protecting revenue and profit than the new forecast suggests. Price cuts for hardware and software might be Nintendo's real 'in case of emergency break glass' strategy, with new software plans possibly remaining as they were. Certainly the regular rate at which they've launched games this year didn't suggest any impending absence of games to me, but I am a bit surprised by the software and profit forecasts.

EPD 8's 2D project absolutely is possible for later this year, but judging by SMB Wonder's performance (13 million in 4-5 months), I'd say a new DK game will push 5 million plus this holiday season but it's not going to compare to Mario (no 2D platformer does, commercially). Equally, it's difficult to see the third Mario Party on Switch pushing huge numbers this year unless there's some major new change or mechanic; again, you're looking at probably 5 million sales rather than 10 million or more; both games have done well on Switch but they've been slow-burn success stories. The obvious possibility is Pokemon Legends ZA landing late in the fiscal year, so early calendar 2025, and doing 10 million or more; but that's still forecasting a surprisingly strong hold for software given the current fiscal year line-up consists almost entirely of titles that will land under 5 million units, with the exception of possibly Luigi's Mansion 2 HD and perhaps Pokemon Legends ZA.

The wildcards for me would be franchises like an Animal Crossing remake (of the original) or spin-off (NdCube); new Tomodachi being a breakout hit; or a Pokemon remake being planned to launch later this year despite the lack of announcement thus far.
 
So if the next direct is gonna span the rest of this year, wouldn’t that imply it’s gonna be a major one? Because even if Nintendo was having a slower year, they would still have a shit ton of announcements when going over the entire second half lineup
 
In terms of software for the rest of this FY, my predictions are: Prime 4, FE4 remake, new Mario Party, maybe a smaller unannounced Pokémon title and maybe a couple more ports/remasters (zelda maybe) this would definitely see us through the holiday season, although I have to wonder if there is one more heavy-hitter considering Nintendo's software forecast
 
Under the circumstances my dream Direct would be:
  • Tomodachi Life / Miitopia Sequel
  • that rumored Hi-Fi Rush Port I don't need because it will for sure not look that good on Switch but would be cool if that game gets more exposure
  • a Rhythm Heaven Game
  • Metroid Prime 4
 
Pillydillsy said:
So if the next direct is gonna span the rest of this year, wouldn’t that imply it’s gonna be a major one? Because even if Nintendo was having a slower year, they would still have a shit ton of announcements when going over the entire second half lineup
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It has to be pretty big in the sense the only “old” thing that can pop in June is Luigi’s Mansion 2. (Depending on whatever happens with Nintendo World Championship)

Hypothetically we could easily see four or five new first party announcements and Prime 4 which may as well be new if they stick to roughly one new game a month. That doesn’t mean everything will be huge or on Prime 4’s level as I imagine a few are old games brought back, but it should be a big show.
 
My guess for 2024 games:
  • Xenoblade Chronicles musou
  • Fire Emblem remake
  • Pick one: (Nintendogs, Tomodochi, Rhythm Heaven, etc.)
  • Mario Party
  • Maybe Metroid Prime 2
 
I'm feeling that they'll get the last of the essential Wii U stuff over the line, enhanced Zelda ports (60fps) and Xenoblade X. Then maybe Fire Emblem, new Mario Party, something smaller and left-field, and they'll show off Prime 4 - but that will be a cross-gen and release next year with the Switch 2.
 
To get some big sales they’ll need some big remasters this year

  • Wind Waker HD/Twilight Princess HD
  • Super Mario Galaxy 2 HD
  • Metroid Prime 2&3 HD

Then give us a price drop and you’ll be good to go!

Was FZero GX remastered still a thing that was expected? Can’t remember if speculation for that died when FZero 99 came out.
 
Pillydillsy said:
So if the next direct is gonna span the rest of this year, wouldn’t that imply it’s gonna be a major one? Because even if Nintendo was having a slower year, they would still have a shit ton of announcements when going over the entire second half lineup
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It depends what they decide to announce outside of the Direct format; the leaked NWC game might be a standalone announcement, for example.

The fuller Directs tend to have around half a dozen or so new announcements from Nintendo. Maybe this one isn't quite up there, but I'd say 4 to 6 new announcements is the likely range. There might be eShop only stuff, for example, which can push up that total.
 
So what happens to this thread if we got an announcement a month in advance...

jEfE5lE.png
 
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I think that a full Switch line hardware price drop and Selects line of games is inevitable

I would rationally suppose they would do it in time for holidays 2024 to give Switch one last hurrah, but who knows, it might not be until post-Switch 2 launch
 
Bonejack said:
Look, i love Fire Emblem. Love the series.
But not even a full new game would carry sales this much. And despite being a "new" game for the west, a remake won't do that even moreso.

And Prime 4 might be held back if it end up as a cross-gen game. (And let's be honest, it should be a cross-gen game.)
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I mean, my point precisely is that any or both of those games wouldn't be enough to meet this ambitious forecast. So either with or without them Nintendo would still have a bulk of the task to act on to get there, be it pricecuts or bigger games (I suggested Mario Party and monkEPD to that effect).
 
I think Nintendo will cut prices on all models sometime late june or early to mid july. So rather soon.
It's definitely an integral part of reaching the HW forecast but pricedrop alone wont be enough, there needs to be some compelling games going with it.
 
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slide's said:
hmmm I haven’t seen this source leak a Direct timeframe before, are they reliable? how’s this Furukawa guy’s track record?
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Lets see if this is true, his track record is slim and this is his first tweet. His method of communication is known to be "heavy PR" so its hard to say.
 
With a June direct being confirm, here’s my speculation of Switch titles releasing the second half of 2024.

  • Prime 2-3 remaster or HD port.
  • Either announcing Windwaker or Twilight princess or possibly making it a dual pack or release them separately
  • A new 2D DK game developed by EDP8, probably a passion project and smaller scale, still really exciting.
  • HD version of Mario Galaxy 2 or possibly a Mario galaxy pack.
  • Remake of fire emblem
  • Pokémon Arriving to NSO with scheduled release dates all the way until Christmas.
  • Lastly the big reveal, Metroid prime 4 slated for a November release.
Smaller scale third party games that consist of PS2-PS3 titles.

With that I made a direct specifically made for me. Also I don’t see Nintendo revealing any big titles with the exception of Prime 4, but here comes the question if Nintendo plans of making a reveal trailer in October and announcing pathed backward compatibility, like I can see prime 4 getting a patched NG version, which includes upscale 4k docked and 1080p native in portable mode.
 
Steve said:
With a June direct being confirm, here’s my speculation of Switch titles releasing the second half of 2024.

  • Prime 2-3 remaster or HD port.
  • Either announcing Windwaker or Twilight princess or possibly making it a dual pack or release them separately
  • A new 2D DK game developed by EDP8, probably a passion project and smaller scale, still really exciting.
  • HD version of Mario Galaxy 2 or possibly a Mario galaxy pack.
  • Remake of fire emblem
  • Pokémon Arriving to NSO with scheduled release dates all the way until Christmas.
  • Lastly the big reveal, Metroid prime 4 slated for a November release.
Smaller scale third party games that consist of PS2-PS3 titles.

With that I made a direct specifically made for me. Also I don’t see Nintendo revealing any big titles with the exception of Prime 4, but here comes the question if Nintendo plans of making a reveal trailer in October and announcing pathed backward compatibility, like I can see prime 4 getting a patched NG version, which includes upscale 4k docked and 1080p native in portable mode.
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Ooh Pokemon on NSO is a good call. This is about the same time in the system's lifespan the 3DS Virtual Console releases landed.
 
Great clear cut talk from Furukawa. I’m assuming this June direct will be the final general direct for Nintendo Switch. Then sometime before November the Switch 2 will be announced
 
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Prime 4 trailer, but I don't think its a 2024 game

My guess is its a 2025 cross-gen game (but not at launch, I think that will be 3D Mario)
 
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ITSMILNER said:
To get some big sales they’ll need some big remasters this year

  • Wind Waker HD/Twilight Princess HD
  • Super Mario Galaxy 2 HD
  • Metroid Prime 2&3 HD

Then give us a price drop and you’ll be good to go!

Was FZero GX remastered still a thing that was expected? Can’t remember if speculation for that died when FZero 99 came out.
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No. Remasters don't sell much unless they've never been released in U.S. and/or Europe.

Fire Emblem 4 Remake or Metroid Prime 4 will have much impact ;)
 
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Casual reminder that the early Direct announcement could simply be a thing to calm down investors, and doesn't have any implications for the content.
 
Bonejack said:
Casual reminder that the early Direct announcement could simply be a thing to calm down investors, and doesn't have any implications for the content.
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It absolutely is. But considering there are zero games announced for H2 2024, there are bound to be some announcements.
 
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