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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

WHEN

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robertman2 said:
No idea about Star Ocean 6, I haven't been following it at all, but I feel like Arise and Scarlet Nexus are more likely to get Drake ports.

Could see Soul Hackers 2 though, assuming weak sales so far don't put a stop to that plan
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I haven't played Scarlet Nexus yet, but nothing in Tales of Arise prevents it from running on the current Switch. It is less technically impressive or taxing than something like DQXI, and if that, or SMTV, or even Kakarot, were able to run on Switch, then Arise should definitely be able to as well.

But you are right, they absolutely could elect to wait for the successor (it would be stupid, but they could do it).

As far as SH2 goes, if a Switch port exists, it was greenlit before the poor sales became apparent. One way or the other, I think it is coming.
 
I think my own personal hesitation to place Fire Emblem any higher than B for this sort of discussion is it’s lack of a footprint outside of the series. Maybe I just don’t play enough strategy games, but I honestly can’t really think of anything that has its roots in Fire Emblem and spread beyond that.

Persona, on the other hand, has undoubtedly made its mark with Persona 5, whether that be through the schedule, social stats, or it’s UI. The fact that it’s become one of the standards for JRPG comparisons says a lot.
 
Phantom Thief said:
The calendar system in Fire Emblem is absolutely a Persona derivative. It is also worth remembering that the developers never denied a Persona influence on the game, they just said the school setting was them looking at older FE games. Mechanically and structurally, FE has absolutely taken from Persona with Three Houses, I don't think anyone would deny that (it would be foolish to given how obvious it is).

If the next FE game continues the series' run since Awakening, I would have zero issues moving it up a tier. I love Fire Emblem, it's not like I am putting it down there out of spite. You mentioned Awakening, which I think is a good illustration of what I am saying: if FE had consistently followed up on Awakening's prestige and reception (it definitely continued to follow up on its sales), then it would be a no questions asked A tier franchise in this reckoning for me. But it's sort of been swerving since. Hopefully the next FE game builds on FETH and solidifies a general direction for the series, rather than the wild swerves back and forth we saw in the 3DS era.
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To be fair, 3H still had better reception (obviously lol) than Fates, and I believe it's the second highest-rated FE game of all time.

I'm honestly pretty confident that FE17 will have a better reception than 3H—again, I think 93+ is possible, which would be great because that would mean beating Awakening as the new highest rated FE game of all time. In retrospect, Fates development was honestly kind of a turbulent time for both FE and Nintendo as a whole. We know from both Emily and Nate that this new game is composed of the same team as 3H, with Gust being on board as well to improve the graphics. FE is also in a much better position than when Fates was being made due to having several successful games to look back on (as opposed to a single game), all the extra experience and insight IS has gained since Awakening, and due to Nintendo's massive success with the Switch. I think these factors will undoubtedly improve the quality of this new game, and prevent it from becoming Fates 2 lol.
 
LuckyNumber69 said:
To be fair, 3H still had better reception (obviously lol) than Fates, and I believe it's the second highest-rated FE game of all time.

I'm honestly pretty confident that FE17 will have a better reception than 3H—again, I think 93+ is possible, which would be great because that would mean beating Awakening as the new highest rated FE game of all time. In retrospect, Fates development was honestly kind of a turbulent time for both FE and Nintendo as a whole. We know from both Emily and Nate that this new game is composed of the same team as 3H, with Gust being on board as well to improve the graphics. FE is also in a much better position than when Fates was being made due to having several successful games to look back on (as opposed to a single game), all the extra experience IS has gained since Awakening, and due to Nintendo's massive success with the Switch. I think these factors will undoubtedly improve the quality of this new game, and prevent it from becoming Fates 2 lol.
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I really hope so! I do think that with Heroes being so successful, the series' popularity in merchandising and spin-offs (such as the Warriors games), and plus its own core sales and critical reception, they are in a very secure spot now, and are probably likelier to put a much more confident step forward even while experimenting than they could with Fates, where the thinking was probably, "okay, Awakening saved this IP from death, now what about it was the most commercially appealing, let's double down on that". I think they no longer have that kind of knife's edge hanging over them during development now.

I think if the next FE is a logical and reasonable building upon TH's successes (which then is also reflected in its critical reception and sales), then the series' trajectory is on a clear upswing, and it will be on its way to moving on up. And I do have confidence that the next one will be great, hopefully it's coming soon.
 
I want to see the main hook of the next game before crowning it. It needs to be something than just “more Fire Emblem” for the series to truly break into the next tier.

LuckyNumber69 said:
again, I think 93+ is possible
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It’ll score well as always, but I’d be floored if Fire Emblem ever breaks 93+ in the current review landscape. Surpassing 90 would be a fantastic achievement on its own. Things are definitely different now than they were 10 years ago (and even then, I’m astounded Awakening scored as high as it did).
 
Thunder84 said:
I think my own personal hesitation to place Fire Emblem any higher than B for this sort of discussion is it’s lack of a footprint outside of the series. Maybe I just don’t play enough strategy games, but I honestly can’t really think of anything that has its roots in Fire Emblem and spread beyond that.

Persona, on the other hand, has undoubtedly made its mark with Persona 5, whether that be through the schedule, social stats, or it’s UI. The fact that it’s become one of the standards for JRPG comparisons says a lot.
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Back in the day Shining Force is probably the most obvious series reacting to Fire Emblem I think.

More recently there’s a stack of indies, Dark Deity in particular springs to mind.

Or Vestaria Saga on PC (although I don’t know if it counts as the creator made the first Fire Emblem games!).

Also Lost Eidolons (but we haven’t heard anything about it for a while).
www.nintendolife.com

Fire Emblem-Style Strategy RPG 'Lost Eidolons' Could Be Coming To Nintendo Switch

Depending on crowdfunding success
www.nintendolife.com www.nintendolife.com

Edit- apparently out very soon on PC


I’d agree that FE isn’t ‘A-tier’ but it’s been around so long that there are many SRPGs that owe it a nod.
 
Thunder84 said:
I want to see the main hook of the next game before crowning it. It needs to be something than just “more Fire Emblem” for the series to truly break into the next tier.



It’ll score well as always, but I’d be floored if Fire Emblem ever breaks 93+ in the current review landscape. Surpassing 90 would be a fantastic achievement on its own. Things are definitely different now than they were 10 years ago (and even then, I’m astounded Awakening scored as high as it did).
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I think the next Fire Emblem game is the first one in a very long time being made with any semblance of security regarding the series' future. At this point, Fire Emblem is a mainstay and a success, and it can command time, budget, and resources much better than it ever could before, and it can experiment without being at the risk of cancellation. All of that, I think, are factors that could contribute to a higher quality, more ambitious, more polished game than the series has ever managed to muster before.

Whether or not that is enough for it to break 90, of course, is anyone's guess.

DecoReturns said:
Fire Emblem does have a very successful mobile game tho.

Not many major JRPG series on consoles can say that honesty.

Which is rather surprising the series managed one
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This is true, how many other JRPG franchises have managed this? Pokemon, FF, and I think that's it?
 
DecoReturns said:
Fire Emblem does have a very successful mobile game tho.

Not many major JRPG series on consoles can say that honesty.

Which is rather surprising the series managed one
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Tales literally throws a new mobile game at the wall every other year in a desperate attempt to get something to stick.

Tales of Link lasted 4 years
Tales of Ray lasted 1 year
Tales of Cestoria lasted 1.5 years
Tales of Luminaria lasted 8 months
 
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Phantom Thief said:
I think the next Fire Emblem game is the first one in a very long time being made with any semblance of security regarding the series' future. At this point, Fire Emblem is a mainstay and a success, and it can command time, budget, and resources much better than it ever could before, and it can experiment without being at the risk of cancellation. All of that, I think, are factors that could contribute to a higher quality, more ambitious, more polished game than the series has ever managed to muster before.

Whether or not that is enough for it to break 90, of course, is anyone's guess.
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I agree that the series is in a position where it could continue setting itself apart, but the development of the franchise has been so chaotic that I want to see it before I believe it. Fingers crossed though.
 
Thunder84 said:
I agree that the series is in a position where it could continue setting itself apart, but the development of the franchise has been so chaotic that I want to see it before I believe it. Fingers crossed though.
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Yup, agreed. The chaotic development, and the limited profile the IP has outside of the core games (as you pointed out, though with Heroes, the merch, and the spin offs, I do think that is starting to change now) are the two primary reasons I don't place FE in a higher tier for now.
 
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DecoReturns said:
Three Houses broke 89 on critics.

With those graphics. That’s basically a 93 right there had it looked much better lol.
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Critics don’t really care much about Switch graphics. I doubt the score would’ve changed that much, if at all, had the graphics been reasonably improved.

At best, had the game had Tales of Arise level graphics, I see it scoring a 91.
 
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Breaking 90 is significantly harder now than it was in the past, fewer games than ever manage it at this point. Even TLOUP1 didn't, and in an earlier time, that would have been as obvious of a 90+ game as any.

I think FE can breach 90 again, to be clear, and I am hoping it manages it, but I think the current review landscape is severely stacked against it.
 
It’s interesting the difference between, say, how much mindspace Dragon Quest has as a cultural phenomenon in Japan and what comparative sales are today. Obviously there’s a huge drop-off after Pokemon and then after FF. But isn’t Persona 5 (all versions) now only a whisker behind Dragon Quest XI (all versions) in terms of copies sold? I don’t have the info in front of me but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Switch release of P5 puts them neck and neck. And that’s despite me thinking that DQXIS was ‘the most DQ game ever’. I love that game.

Both FE and Persona have made massive jumps into being major (for rpgs) series in the last decade, and for slightly different reasons I think (accessibility and presentation for FE, presentation for Persona). It kinda makes me wonder which, if any, other series are poised to make a similar jump.
 
Pixelknight said:
It’s interesting the difference between, say, how much mindspace Dragon Quest has as a cultural phenomenon in Japan and what comparative sales are today. Obviously there’s a huge drop-off after Pokemon and then after FF. But isn’t Persona 5 (all versions) now only a whisker behind Dragon Quest XI (all versions) in terms of copies sold? I don’t have the info in front of me but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Switch release of P5 puts them neck and neck.

Both FE and Persona have made massive jumps into being major (for rpgs) series in the last decade, and for slightly different reasons I think (accessibility and presentation for FE, presentation for Persona). It kinda makes me wonder which, if any, other series are poised to make a similar jump.
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DQXI is currently at 6.5 million across all versions.
Persona 5 is currently at 5 million across all versions.

I think the Steam and Switch release alone will be enough to add another 1.5-2 million to that total for P5, then whatever the Xbox and PS5 releases add on top of that.
 
Phantom Thief said:
DQXI is currently at 6.5 million across all versions.
Persona 5 is currently at 5 million across all versions.

I think the Steam and Switch release alone will be enough to add another 1.5-2 million to that total for P5, then whatever the Xbox and PS5 releases add on top of that.
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Thanks for the numbers! Yeah looks that way doesn’t it. Seems crazy to me, like in my head I feel like DQ should have sold more or something but you can’t really argue with sales there.
 
Pixelknight said:
It’s interesting the difference between, say, how much mindspace Dragon Quest has as a cultural phenomenon in Japan and what comparative sales are today. Obviously there’s a huge drop-off after Pokemon and then after FF. But isn’t Persona 5 (all versions) now only a whisker behind Dragon Quest XI (all versions) in terms of copies sold? I don’t have the info in front of me but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Switch release of P5 puts them neck and neck. And that’s despite me thinking that DQXIS was ‘the most DQ game ever’. I love that game.

Both FE and Persona have made massive jumps into being major (for rpgs) series in the last decade, and for slightly different reasons I think (accessibility and presentation for FE, presentation for Persona). It kinda makes me wonder which, if any, other series are poised to make a similar jump.
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XC3 sales should give us a decent idea if Xenoblade is close to making that jump. Nothing else really comes to mind though besides Yakuza.
 
Pixelknight said:
Thanks for the numbers! Yeah looks that way doesn’t it. Seems crazy to me, like in my head I feel like DQ should have sold more or something but you can’t really argue with sales there.
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Yeah, which is why I understand Square's desire to make Dragon Quest bigger in the west; in Japan, all versions of P5 put together have sold 1.2 million so far (800k for vanilla, 400k for Royal). That's slightly over 20% of the game's total global sales, meaning that a huge part of its success is coming from outside of Japan.

Dragon Quest XI sold 1.5 million on PS4, 1.8 million on 3DS, and then something around 800k on Switch, in Japan. That's 4.1 million out of 6.5 million, or pretty much 67% of its sales attributable to Japan (and very honestly, the number is almost definitely more skewed in Japan's favour, since the numbers here are pretty outdated).

If DQ could even match the sales it gets in Japan in the west, it would be unmatched in terms of commercial success by any JRPG franchise except for Pokemon and MH. Even FF doesn't do that well that consistently anymore.
 
Just checked my Amazon account. I have seven games preordered so far for the remainder of 2022... Splatoon, Neil Automata, Bayonetta, Shredders Revenge, Pokemon Violet, DQ Treasure, Crisis Core. And I'll preorder P5R once it's available to do so...

... This isn't even including the fact that I'm hella interested in Harvestella and whatever surprises may be looming in an upcoming direct.
 
Thunder84 said:
I’m astounded at how many in the mainstream media continue to use Zippo as a source of info
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Whether by sheer coincidence or lucky happenstance, zippo has made enough predictions that "panned out" that he remains a "credible" source for a lot of people. (New Paper Mario, new 2D Metroid, P4AU, P3/4).

Now of course, the guesses he got right were mostly obvious gimmes, and also accompanied by a huge number he didn't get right, but pfft, details.
 
I remember Zippo used to get a shutout by Nate during a podcast every now and then.

I always thought he had connections that way. Then it became more clear they more like Samus Hunter type leaking. But perhaps they know folks. Just don’t get leaks.

I don’t know. It’s a strange case. Always use to post like a regular member then started joining the insider game.
 
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Scrawnton said:
Just checked my Amazon account. I have seven games preordered so far for the remainder of 2022... Splatoon, Neil Automata, Bayonetta, Shredders Revenge, Pokemon Violet, DQ Treasure, Crisis Core. And I'll preorder P5R once it's available to do so...

... This isn't even including the fact that I'm hella interested in Harvestella and whatever surprises may be looming in an upcoming direct.
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Yeah, for the rest of the year, on Switch alone, I have:

  • Splatoon 3
  • Nier Automata
  • Persona 5 Royal
  • Pokemon Violet
  • Harvestella
  • Sonic Frontiers (maybe?)
  • Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion
  • Tactics Ogre
At some point I also want DioField, but I am willing to wait on that one.

Plus God of War Ragnarok, but that's not Switch.

It's gonna be rough.
 
Phantom Thief said:
Yeah, for the rest of the year, on Switch alone, I have:

  • Splatoon 3
  • Nier Automata
  • Persona 5 Royal
  • Pokemon Violet
  • Harvestella
  • Sonic Frontiers (maybe?)
  • Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion
  • Tactics Ogre
At some point I also want DioField, but I am willing to wait on that one.

Plus God of War Ragnarok, but that's not Switch.

It's gonna be rough.
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I more or less pretend my ps5 and XSX don't exist just so I can play more Switch hah.
 
Everyone knows 2D Mario is coming at some time or another so that's not exactly a leak lol. I'm almost certain the dumb "NEW!" moniker will be dropped either way and they'll freshen the series up a bit. At least I really hope so 🙏

I have recently sold off my Xbox Series X due to a financial hardship but just between Switch, 3DS, PS4 there's already way too much out and on the horizon so it's no love loss. I was never a fan of Microsofts 1st party output to begin with 🤷
 
Phantom Thief said:
and are probably likelier to put a much more confident step forward even while experimenting than they could with Fates, where the thinking was probably, "okay, Awakening saved this IP from death, now what about it was the most commercially appealing, let's double down on that". I think they no longer have that kind of knife's edge hanging over them during development now.
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Yes, thank you, this is basically what I was trying to say, but you put it way more succinctly haha. Fates was kinda a shitshow because on one hand IS looked at the massive unprecedented success of Awakening and all of the popular elements of that game (i.e. the matchmaker mechanics, children, artstyle and overall presentation, more recognizable characters defined by their designs and single personality trait, etc.) and on the other, the segment of hardcore fans criticicizing some of those elements in addition to the gameplay and story. So instead of trying to make a single great game that could appeal to everyone (aka Three Houses) they made Fates: good gameplay edition that was made specifically for for experienced fans, and Fates: boring and bland af edition in an attempt to make Awakening 2 without seemingly realizing what made Awakening special in the first place, or realizing that all of the new fans would probably also enjoy the more complex and gimmick-heavy gameplay of Conquest in comparison to the rather vanilla Awakening-style gameplay.

Fates was also just way too similar to Awakening in (I assume) an attempt to maintain its fanbase. Like, even the artstyle was the same despite being a completely separate game in a separate universe than Awakening. Based on the leaks of FE17 (both text and the leaked pics) it already seems like IS/Nintendo are way more confident in the IP than when Fates was being developed. A Gust-like artstyle is a lot different than what 3H looks like, and indeed, if we assume the pics are real, it definitely appears that way. I wouldn't be surprised if this game has a different character artist than 3H too given its (allegedly) vastly different art direction. After all, the whole "two games per artist" rule is fullfilled thanks to Three Hopes, and having the same exact character artist for the third FE game in a row (albeit only the second mainline game) and so soon after the previous game with said artist doesn't seem like something IS or Nintendo would want to do.

One last thing I want to say, since this post is getting pretty long lol: I think Three Houses success was incredibly beneficial for the franchise in terms of Nintendo's confidence in it (obviously its high sales help too haha) and IS's ambition and experimentation due to it being a huge success despite greatly cutting back on the things that allegedly lead to the success of the 3ds era. S-rank still exists, but is relegated to a single small cutscene at the end of the game, and can only be achieved with the avatar. Children aren't even a thing at all in the game. Character designs, outside of a couple like female Byleth, are much more modest and realistic. The storytelling, while still "anime", is a lot better and more serious in tone than the 3ds games, and with much better (but still far from perfect) world building. The characters are also a lot deeper this time around, and not written based off of a single haha funni personality trait. The game is also incredibly ugly lol. Yet, despite being a lot different in terms of tone/artstyle/design/mechanics etc compared to Awakening and Fates, the game is still by far the most successful game in the series, with its cast being by far the most beloved in FE history, and with its reception being second only to Awakening. That's gotta give Nintendo and IS a huge boost in confidence.
 
For switch for the rest of the year I got
  • Persona 5 Royal
  • Pokemon
  • Bayonetta 3
  • Mario Rabbids
Also planning on Sonic Frontiers and Midnight Suns, but I'm grabbing those on PS5
 
Really like going back to his predictions from the start of the year.
  • BotW2 in 2022 - Wrong
  • First look at the Mario Movie in the February direct - Wrong
  • No Pokémon Gen 9 - Wrong
  • Mario Sports by Bamco - Wrong
  • Mario Kart X - Wrong
Great track record there, Zippopotamus.
 
I just have Crisis Core (which I never played)
And
Tactics Orge (which I’ve played for a bit. Never beaten) pre-ordered.

I’ve been having a great year for a JRPG fan and still debating on other titles to get 😐
 
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Thunder84 said:
Really like going back to his predictions from the start of the year.
  • BotW2 in 2022 - Wrong
  • First look at the Mario Movie in the February direct - Wrong
  • No Pokémon Gen 9 - Wrong
  • Mario Sports by Bamco - Wrong
  • Mario Kart X - Wrong
Great track record there, Zippopotamus.
Click to expand...
I mean it's not really hard to see what he does.
He gives safeish predictions that have a chance to happen and hopes that he guessed right.
When he does he's a reliable insider, when he doesn't plans change.
 
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Thunder84 said:
XC3 sales should give us a decent idea if Xenoblade is close to making that jump. Nothing else really comes to mind though besides Yakuza.
Click to expand...

Phantom Thief said:
Yeah, which is why I understand Square's desire to make Dragon Quest bigger in the west; in Japan, all versions of P5 put together have sold 1.2 million so far (800k for vanilla, 400k for Royal). That's slightly over 20% of the game's total global sales, meaning that a huge part of its success is coming from outside of Japan.

Dragon Quest XI sold 1.5 million on PS4, 1.8 million on 3DS, and then something around 800k on Switch, in Japan. That's 4.1 million out of 6.5 million, or pretty much 67% of its sales attributable to Japan (and very honestly, the number is almost definitely more skewed in Japan's favour, since the numbers here are pretty outdated).

If DQ could even match the sales it gets in Japan in the west, it would be unmatched in terms of commercial success by any JRPG franchise except for Pokemon and MH. Even FF doesn't do that well that consistently anymore.
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Fair points both
 
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Cancelled Retro Studio games with good concept art. How you imagine the full game would be:
epic-mickey-art.jpg


How it would have actually been:
81pX35sRm1L._SL1500_.jpg
 
Zippo just needs a Reddit-style take down post much like the one that recorded all the nonsense S*m*sH*nt*r spewed by parroting other insiders.

I mean, you'd think the homophobic slurs would be enough, but Gamers™ don't listen to wokeness™
 
Phantom Thief said:
Sorry, what now
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From what I recall Zippo referred to the Nintendo crowd on ResetEra as an unsavory word choice on his blog site, shortly before or after he was banned on Era. Not entirely sure if that was the reasoning why, though or if something else he did caught the banhammer

Someone might recall the details better than me, but it's part of the reason I don't give traction to his site if I can avoid it.
 
Brofield said:
From what I recall Zippo referred to the Nintendo crowd on ResetEra as an unsavory word choice on his blog site, shortly before or after he was banned on Era. Not entirely sure if that was the reasoning why, though or if something else he did caught the banhammer

Someone might recall the details better than me, but it's part of the reason I don't give traction to his site if I can avoid it.
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Thank you, didn’t realize he was a shithead in addition to being a clout chaser
 
Just saw that No Split Screen Co-op for Halo infinite. 😭

wanted to go back to tradition and beat the game with my cousin like all
Other campaigns. Maybe next halo game. Can’t say much on infinite. I played for like a few hours and dropped it cuase I wanted to play it with my cousin instead. Bummer.
 
DecoReturns said:
Just saw that No Split Screen Co-op for Halo infinite. 😭

wanted to go back to tradition and beat the game with my cousin like all
Other campaigns. Maybe next halo game. Can’t say much on infinite. I played for like a few hours and dropped it cuase I wanted to play it with my cousin instead. Bummer.
Click to expand...

There's actually a way to glitch into splitscreen co-op



You might risk your save data but aside from that, it seems to work mostly fine with minimal bugs
 
Nintendo is asleep at the wheel.

Gamecube remasters? Ummm okay, but like where are my new Tetris 99 themes? 🤔

The Kirby one came out ages ago now, we're starving over here.
 
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So if Nintendo brings Twilight Princess to the Switch, which version do you see them going with?

1. The Wii U version with the upgraded texture work.
2. The Tegra version (basically a Nintendo made emulated version) that was already done and released in Chinese markets four years ago that lacked and of the upgraded textures but is probably all ready to go on Switch but would lack a lot of the cool editions found in the Wii U version of the game.

Tegra version for reference:

 
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