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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

WHEN

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It’s time he returns


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Magic-Man said:
I'm playing it right now and it looks like NSMB to me, just partially 3D. But then again 3D World and NSMB are pretty similar.
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I remember it being the 3d world style especially because the maker power up that's used in the hub is exclusive to the 3d world style
 
Magic-Man said:
No shot they're getting rid of the NSMB brand. I don't get why everyone expects some new artstyle tbh. The current one is fine.
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To be honest? It's just a little tired. New Super Mario Bros. sold so well that the Mario brand is the exact NSMB aesthetic. And when NSMBWii came out, they doubled down hard on that. It's at a point where it's less that the NSMB look is popular, it just...is the Mario brand. And when your 2D Mario game is just the standard brand look? Yeah, I understand why people are asking for something bolder. It reinforces the (not really wrong) perception that the NSMB games are safe. They're as standard as standard can be and not much more than that in a series that often goes the extra mile to be the best and brightest in its class.

They don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater, but if we get the same tired, plastic-like aesthetic and the same midi songs and the same level themes for the fifth game in a row (I'll be generous and leave off Mario Run), yeah, that'll dampen my excitement for sure.

Magic-Man said:
My eyes beg to differ
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The hub is based on 3D World. It's in the sound design and the animations. They DID make area texture more like NSMBU, but it's still rooted in 3D World.

...to be fair, the castle area in 3D World's intro (and Bowser's Fury, too) very much borrows from NSMB, down to the striped grass - it just had a more realistic grass texture.
 
I am pleased to reveal that Dill Spowser is now officially a WORLD RECORD HOLDER



(Or maybe I just beat the World 1 global record and changed my profile name to D. Spowser, and was upset that Dill Spowser wouldn’t fit due to the 10-character limit)
 
Koren Lesthe said:
How come people are expecting to see a trailer for MK 8‘s third wave of the DLC when the second wave just came out ?

Sounds kinda early.
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I mean, the first wave (even though it was the general announcement of the pass) was announced a month beforehand. Announcement mid September, release early November?
 
SirShorse said:
I mean, the first wave (even though it was the general announcement of the pass) was announced a month beforehand. Announcement mid September, release early November?
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Four waves remaining.
Last one is due for December 2023.
One wave every four months.

So (my guess) :
December 2022
April 2023
August 2023
December 2023
 
Damn this thread is moving at a clip. I don’t even care about a Direct right now just give me gd Splatoon 3
 
Like, a fresh shift in aesthetic and theme and maybe one new mechanic or structure shift is honestly all the next 2D Mario game needs. Look at Kirby Planet Robobot. Near identical to Triple Deluxe in design and structure, but throw Kirby in a mech suit and roboticize everything and it's the new fan favorite. I think people will be easy to please.

...though to tie this back into actual Direct speculation, I wonder how the schedule around BOTW 2. Like you don't wanna release 2D Mario that close to it, right?
 
Blue Monty said:
I wonder if we will get a late 2023 (or even early 2024 game) announcement for hiring purposes like it happened with Splatoon 3 that got announced more than one year before release and just the same week it got announced Nintendo opened contract positions to work in the title)
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I absolutely expect a 2024 game announcement for February Direct.
I don't think I expect any late 2023 game announcements tho... Oh. ACTUALLY. I do. Metroid Prime 4.
I would say 3D Mario, but I think that one already has a big team and would be more on polishing? Idk.
September Direct game announcements of games coming more than 12 months after that I recall are only Luigi's Mansion 3, Animal Crossing New Horizons and Bayonetta 3.

I think those "now in development" were more about the Switch first year and Zelda, don't really expect a 2024 game for that reason. But a late 2023 game announced for hiring can totally be delayed to 2024, so maybe that counts.
 
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Blue Monty said:
I wonder if we will get a late 2023 (or even early 2024 game) announcement for hiring purposes like it happened with Splatoon 3 that got announced more than one year before release and just the same week it got announced Nintendo opened contract positions to work in the title)
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Feel like the only game they’d do this for is something big like Mario. Doubt they’d want to do that for a mid tier IP like Pikmin or Star Fox.
 
Just for fun purposes I'm gonna list the late 2023 or 2024 games that I see being announced in the September Direct or February Direct for either the "we need developers to finish this game so we are revealing to make hiring", "look, you've waited so long, get hyped!!" or "don't worry, we have games coming next year and beyond" purposes:

- Metroid Prime 4: probably late 2023, and to me the most likely to happen in the September Direct, as we're gonna have Metroid Prime Remastered announcement, so perfect opportunity to show the game for the first time;

- Super Mario 3D Next/Odyssey 2: probably another late 2023 game, I would see them showing it to ride the hype of the movie, avoid possible backlash to a 2D Mario announcement, secure the Switch owners there's good things coming, and also having the game announced already so they can put in on Drake promotions(like Zelda BotW 2, Splatoon 3 appearing on OLED trailer);

- a brand new IP: to me that's the far less likely but definitely can happen, we had Splatoon, ARMS, LABO and Ring Fit Adventure from 2015-2019, I think we can have a new IP for the late Switch/early Drake life;

- Astral Chain 2: to me that's a likely announcement for the February Direct, not likely for the September one because there's Bayo 3 coming. I think there's evidence the game is in development, and expecting a similar dev time that the first got would put it late 2023(I expect it for 2024);

- Shin Megami Tensei V sequel/Persona 6: the first is far more likely than the latter, I think it'll come eventually, but I would expect more of a February or E3 2023 trailer for a late 2024 release. Anyways it would be announced like 1.5 year in advance for hiring, and for Atlus weirdness lol.
 
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Gengar said:
I feel like it was September 2018 when they announced Luigi's Mansion 3? That ended up releasing in October 2019. We also had Splatoon 3 announced over a year beforehand, like you said. Something like that could definitely happen again.

I'm wondering though, if the new Fire Emblem and BOTW 2 are set for the first half of 2023, would they feel the need to announce anything further out than that?
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I think it depends a lot really. They announced Luigi's Mansion 3 and Animal Crossing New Horizons in that Direct, while we got Mario Maker 2, Astral Chain, Dragon Quest XI S and Link's Awakening releasing before both.

While early 2019 was a little underwhelming, mid 2019 was insaaaaaane. February 2019 Direct was magical.

Nintendo can be weird with Directs.

I can see them announcing something like a new 3D Mario for 2023, that not appearing again until E3, while they announce a 2D Mario coming in June by the February Direct, or showing another holiday 2023 game this Direct, while April - September 2023 will remain an ? until February Direct. (I'm saying April onwards because I expected Zelda late March and Fire Emblem early February or late January).
 
Wow, Nate actually went ahead and put September Direct in the title of his latest video. I wasn't expecting that.
 
VolcanicDynamo said:
Like, a fresh shift in aesthetic and theme and maybe one new mechanic or structure shift is honestly all the next 2D Mario game needs. Look at Kirby Planet Robobot. Near identical to Triple Deluxe in design and structure, but throw Kirby in a mech suit and roboticize everything and it's the new fan favorite. I think people will be easy to please.

...though to tie this back into actual Direct speculation, I wonder how the schedule around BOTW 2. Like you don't wanna release 2D Mario that close to it, right?
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My 2 cents here

You can launch botw2 in feb-apr and launch 2d Mario in the summer time as the summer Mario game for the year (18 had tennis, 19 had maker 2, 20 had origami king, 21 had golf, 22 was strikers). You can make the argument that these all are non mainline Mario releases too and a 2D Mario is bigger than sticking it in the summer.


23 will probably have a big focus on DLC expansion content too (Pokémon, Xeno, Splat, switch sports, botw2, Rabbids 2, etc.) so you could schedule a big game with an expansion or 2 as a cheaper option to buy rather than a full fledged $60 title with potential global recession looming
 
Chrdmart said:
My 2 cents here

You can launch botw2 in feb-apr and launch 2d Mario in the summer time as the summer Mario game for the year (18 had tennis, 19 had maker 2, 20 had origami king, 21 had golf, 22 was strikers). You can make the argument that these all are non mainline Mario releases too and a 2D Mario is bigger than sticking it in the summer.


23 will probably have a big focus on DLC expansion content too (Pokémon, Xeno, Splat, switch sports, botw2, Rabbids 2, etc.) so you could schedule a big game with an expansion or 2 as a cheaper option to buy rather than a full fledged $60 title with potential global recession looming
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I completely agree. I think if we don't see 2D Mario this holiday (still a tiny chance IMO) we could we'll see it next summer. That or 3D Mario in the summer or fall. I don't expect both in the same year or less than 12 months apart though.

Someone mentioned Captain Toad could be NST's project. That makes a lot of sense to me and I could see that coming the same year as a 2D Mario.
 
Chrdmart said:
My 2 cents here

You can launch botw2 in feb-apr and launch 2d Mario in the summer time as the summer Mario game for the year (18 had tennis, 19 had maker 2, 20 had origami king, 21 had golf, 22 was strikers). You can make the argument that these all are non mainline Mario releases too and a 2D Mario is bigger than sticking it in the summer.


23 will probably have a big focus on DLC expansion content too (Pokémon, Xeno, Splat, switch sports, botw2, Rabbids 2, etc.) so you could schedule a big game with an expansion or 2 as a cheaper option to buy rather than a full fledged $60 title with potential global recession looming
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Agreed.
Next year will likely be heavy focused on DLC, and that’s why Nintendo has made big emphasis about it in the latest announcements.
 
2D Mario in Feburary (both NSMBUD and 3D World launched early in the year), BOTW2 in late April, and Fire Emblem in June is how I see this playing out. DLC will come in March and May. Not sure what the holiday title will be though, given that Pokemon is off the table and 3D Mario is unlikely IMO.
 
VolcanicDynamo said:
Like, a fresh shift in aesthetic and theme and maybe one new mechanic or structure shift is honestly all the next 2D Mario game needs. Look at Kirby Planet Robobot. Near identical to Triple Deluxe in design and structure, but throw Kirby in a mech suit and roboticize everything and it's the new fan favorite. I think people will be easy to please.

...though to tie this back into actual Direct speculation, I wonder how the schedule around BOTW 2. Like you don't wanna release 2D Mario that close to it, right?
Click to expand...
I think anywhere the big games fall will cause some "problem" where there's no perfect timing for them. Like, releasing 2D Mario close to Zelda might've been something to avoid, but what if putting it in the holiday would make it near 3D Mario or 2D DK?

I think they'd do fine with Zelda coming in March and Mario in either January or June.
We got Mario Kart 8 Deluxe the following month of BotW, Luigi's Mansion 3 2 weeks before Pokémon Sword and Shield, RingFit Adventure the same month as LM3, etc.
Chrdmart said:
My 2 cents here

You can launch botw2 in feb-apr and launch 2d Mario in the summer time as the summer Mario game for the year (18 had tennis, 19 had maker 2, 20 had origami king, 21 had golf, 22 was strikers). You can make the argument that these all are non mainline Mario releases too and a 2D Mario is bigger than sticking it in the summer.


23 will probably have a big focus on DLC expansion content too (Pokémon, Xeno, Splat, switch sports, botw2, Rabbids 2, etc.) so you could schedule a big game with an expansion or 2 as a cheaper option to buy rather than a full fledged $60 title with potential global recession looming
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I agree with all of this. I think while we probably will have gangbusters more spaced out next year, it'll still have a good flow of big games and expansions coming.
Nabbit said:
I completely agree. I think if we don't see 2D Mario this holiday (still a tiny chance IMO) we could we'll see it next summer. That or 3D Mario in the summer or fall. I don't expect both in the same year or less than 12 months apart though.

Someone mentioned Captain Toad could be NST's project. That makes a lot of sense to me and I could see that coming the same year as a 2D Mario.
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I will be very happy if we end up getting a Captain Toad sequel by NST. They were capable of doing Bowser's Fury and having a new game on their chest will be awesome! Also would mean we would have Captain Toad alive while EPD Tokyo has other stuff on the way.

I can see 2D Mario coming early summer and late 2023 having DK. Then 3D Mario would be early 2024. After Maker 2 coming so close to NSMBUDX and and 3D World so close to 3D All Stars tho I can see 2D Mario coming in, say, January or February and 3D Mario in November.
Magic-Man said:
2D Mario in Feburary (both NSMBUD and 3D World launched early in the year), BOTW2 in late April, and Fire Emblem in June is how I see this playing out. DLC will come in March and May. Not sure what the holiday title will be though, given that Pokemon is off the table and 3D Mario is unlikely IMO.
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I think it's gonna be Metroid Prime 4 as the October game(like Bayonetta 3 for this year, Metroid Dread last year, etc), and November, which won't have Pokémon, would be for 3D Mario... I think that's the only "holiday season driver" left in a year without Pokémon that already had its Zelda and 2D Mario. I can see that falling in early 2024 tho.

Metroid Prime 4 can't carry a holiday season by its own, only time we had a holiday season without a 10m+ selling game was 2020(which 3D World was supposed to), and that year had Animal Crossing New Horizons to carry the whole year lol. Only game I see possible to be ready by them that would join MP4 is a new 3D Mario. New 2D Mario would too, but that one would already be out alongside the movie. DK would be a strong addition too, but I don't see it being a Pokémon/Odyssey/Smash replacer.
 
Nintendo Direct September 21st - Runtime Approx 45 mins (This is a prediction):

Fire Emblem XIV
Nintendo Switch Sports Update
Super Mario Bros 2D Project
Mario Movie Teaser
F-Zero Rivals
Bayonetta 3
The Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess And Wind Waker HD
The Legend of Zelda Breath of The Wild 2


Dragon Ball: The Breakers
New Tales from the Borderlands
Alan Wake Remastered
Front Mission 1st: Remake
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion
Star Wars: Hunters
Hogwarts Legacy
Tunic
Super Bomberman R 2
Darkest Dungeon II
 
I’ve been wanting to make some predictions all day and I finally have the time! I’m mostly sticking with my predictions I had for the June Direct that never was. I ultimately settled on Splatoon week for the Direct, since I think Indie World will skip Gamescom week and instead aim for the following week.

The big three are the pillars of the Direct as Breath of the Wild 2, Metroid Prime 4 (a teaser as part of the Prime Remaster announcement), and a New Mario platformer ahead of the movie (which incidentally will get a new trailer) will all be shown here. The leaked Fire Emblem will also be revealed here as a big January game. We’ll get more info on the Switch Sports Golf update and maybe a smidge of Splatoon info. I really don’t think we’ll hear anything about Mario Kart Wave 3, but if we do at absolute most they’ll tease Merry Mountain for end of November / early December.

New hardware, Everybody 1-2 Switch, Advance Wars, and Goldeneye will all be no shows here as all four of those are standalone announcements for later. I do think we will get one more announcement in here that’s harder to predict. I think it could very well be the Dragon Quest III HD-2D version getting an early Q1 release date (maybe February?).

And that’s about it I think for Nintendo and Nintendo adjacent. Basically we’ll learn about the big pillars of next year, the last surprise of this year (Metroid Prime Remastered), and the Q1 line up. The more wild but smaller teases (like F-Zero and Pikmin) are going to be saved for the February Direct. I think we’ll have a pretty awesome 2023, but we won’t know quite what it looks like beyond the biggest hitters until next year.
 
Phendrift said:
Is there a reason for the increase in 2D Mario speculation
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They will have some Mario game roughly alongside the movie. It’s ultimately an advertisement for the Mario games even if it will be its own fun thing. It’s also been quite some time since both Odyssey and Mario Maker 2. The two main Mario teams (3D and 2D) are overdue for a game, the main question is what comes first.
 
Its either the 1st or 8th right? Could the 8th be too close to Splatoon 3? Maybe the Direct will be after Splatoon3? I noticed that Nintendo always releases a big Direct after a major game launch, thats why I think it will be after S3, but still very hopeful that its before the 10th 🥹
 
Phendrift said:
Is there a reason for the increase in 2D Mario speculation
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xghost777 said:
They will have some Mario game roughly alongside the movie. It’s ultimately an advertisement for the Mario games even if it will be its own fun thing. It’s also been quite some time since both Odyssey and Mario Maker 2. The two main Mario teams (3D and 2D) are overdue for a game, the main question is what comes first.
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Yeah, both teams have been working on their next major title for somewhere around 3 years; maybe longer for the 3D Mario team (we don't quite know what happened after Odyssey, but their 3D action game hiring call came literally 2 years after it released; of course, that hiring call doesn’t necessarily indicate the start of development).

3D Mario has had a couple of releases and a bigger presence recently than 2D Mario thanks to the 3D All Stars and 3D World + Bowser's Fury releases in 2020 and 2021. I also wonder if, like open world Zelda, Nintendo are content to let 3D Mario be something that simply takes a lot of time. It's the other prestige single player series and Zelda is already due in 2023; we talk about the pressure to get Zelda right, but I wonder if there's a similar pressure and similar privilege for the 3D Mario team right now.

But I do think we're getting one or the other mainline Mario series next year. Traditional 2D Mario is, alongside Kart, the flagship internal Nintendo series currently only represented by a port on Switch and I think a new entry could be a huge cross-generation hit for Nintendo. I'm expecting them to go for something like New Super Mario World, with a visual style somewhere between the New Bros style, Maker 2's hub and 3D World toolset, but hopefully with properly instrumental music and some wilder and more interesting level themes.
 
I hope the direct will be on the 1st of September.
The week of the 8th (like @CypressFX said) is the week of Splatoon 3. So I don't expect a direct there, then the week after there is TGS so I doubt they'll wait more. Also there hasn't been a general direct in June, so going from early February to late September seems kinda weird to me.

My bet is on the 1st. Maybe even the 31st of August (the midnight between the 31st and the 1st here).

As for my predictions:

1. What I want, and I'm kinda sure I'll get:
  • the new Fire Emblem.
  • a title and a BIG TRAILER for BotW2. I'm not sure about a release date tho.
  • a new game from Team Asano (unfortunately not Bravely related).

2. What I don't care about, but I think will be there:
  • Switch Sports DLC
  • Splatoon 3 last trailer
  • Metroid Prime HD remaster

3. What I would love to see, but I doubt will be there:
  • Ace Attorney 7 / The Great Ace Attorney 3 / Ace Attorney Investigations duology (<- from less hype to most hype lol)
  • a new Professor Layton (even I know that I will never see this)
  • a new 2D Zelda (I really hope this will be on Switch sooner or later)
  • Bravely Default. Anything.
  • Kid Icarus.
 
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