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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

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MisterSpo said:
Personally one of the reasons I'd suggest a year round speculation thread(s) is unnecessary is because we do have other places where news, rumours, and other developments can be shared. We have a hardware thread; we have threads for individual games; we have a thread on first party development which isn't necessarily full of speculation, but does have interesting information about development arrangements, hiring calls, the activities of different producers and so on.

Right now though I kind of think this conversation isn't going to be that relevant. We're a week away from August and there are reasonable grounds to expect multiple news drops (Pokemon, Kart, Indie World, Splatoon Direct) in August, which means there's plenty of justification to keep going here. With TGS still on for September, some sort of Direct (regular or Partner Showcase) seems very likely, too.
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Great points.

So maybe have this be a General Speculation thread that is always open, and when a Direct is announced, have a Direct Speculation thread for that specific Direct that stays open for a week or so after it airs.
 
DecoReturns said:
This getting far to serious.

Just let the folks of Fami decide what they want. 2 threads or not.

How’s about that Mods?
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I imagine they've been gauging the responses and will provide a decision.

I do hope that they wait until the weekday crowd logs in and give their thoughts
 
TheBodge said:
Great points.

So maybe have this be a General Speculation thread that is always open, and when a Direct is announced, have a Direct Speculation thread for that specific Direct that stays open for a week or so after it airs.
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This is sort of how it used to work, except the latter thread was just the news thread made for the announcement rather than an OT
 
DecoReturns said:
This getting far to serious.

Just let the folks of Fami decide what they want. 2 threads or not.

How’s about that Mods?
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Yep, that's the plan!
Raccoon said:
I imagine they've been gauging the responses and will provide a decision.

I do hope that they wait until the weekday crowd logs in and give their thoughts
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Yeah, we're not going to rush it. We also intentionally didn't set it up as a binary poll because we want to read people's thoughts (and everyone's thoughts are being read and appreciated, by the way!), not just boil it down to "votes".
 
As attached as I am to my original proposal of Direct threads as events, I think I've had my mind changed by the arguments made here. If people want a speculation thread all the time, there's no good reason they shouldn't have one. I'd personally endorse it being called "Nintendo Speculation" since Directs are no longer to be taken for granted.
 
SirShorse said:
I'd hold that thought for until we go past September and may or may not have a General Direct. I'm still of the belief Nintendo said "no E3? well no General Direct then, Partner is good enough"
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I'd say the fact that September has become a "may or may not" means we're not taking them for granted anymore
 
Raccoon said:
I'd say the fact that September has become a "may or may not" means we're not taking them for granted anymore
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I'm personally still fully of the belief we're definitely getting a September Direct, it's just the fact that we didn't get one in June is throwing people off that train of thought.

We're definitely getting one imo
 
No. keep calling it Nintendo Direct.

Just silly seeing the turmoil cause of June.

Cause we did get a direct in June.

Anyways. I’m done with this topic until the voting. Back to Xenoblade
 
SirShorse said:
I'm personally still fully of the belief we're definitely getting a September Direct, it's just the fact that we didn't get one in June is throwing people off that train of thought.

We're definitely getting one imo
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I think a Partner Showcase is a non-negligible possibility.

DecoReturns said:
No. keep calling it Nintendo Direct.

Just silly seeing the turmoil cause of June.

Cause we did get a direct in June.

Anyways. I’m done with this topic until the voting. Back to Xenoblade
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Why call it Nintendo Direct Speculation when much of its duration will be about any Nintendo speculation? And anyway, from my understanding there won't actually be a poll; they're gauging the responses now.
 
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SirShorse said:
I'm personally still fully of the belief we're definitely getting a September Direct, it's just the fact that we didn't get one in June is throwing people off that train of thought.

We're definitely getting one imo
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I believe so too. And don't forget that NSO subscrptions will start to run out in September, great time to announce GBA games coming.
 
Some people here speculated that Nintendo could do a Direct on 31th of August but if that's the case then it would be September 1st in Japan, and I don't personally think they will go this way, have it in "different" month.
 
mazi said:
just curious, IF we were to have this thread year round, would you prefer it to be called "nintendo direct speculation" or something along the lines of "general nintendo speculation"?
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I personally think "Nintendo Speculation |ST|" would suffice
 
I'm also of the opinion that there's no reason to think there won't be a Direct in September. Nintendo has had predictable Direct slots for a while now, with the notable exceptions (2020, June 2022) having quite obvious explanations (Covid, cancelation of E3). The fact that the exceptions have been quite close has understandably shaken people's confidence but I still believe we should assume the default is a full Direct in September
 
N75 said:
They’ve already said more HD-2D games are in development. Octopath 2 has basically been confirmed and I wouldn’t be surprised if BD continues.
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I dont remember if it was Takahashi or Tomoya that said it, but they mention after BD2 came out that they were really earlier in concept art for the next installment. So give it 4 years maybe
 
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Even if we don't have a Direct in September, we'll almost certainly get one in early 2023 I think. This reminds me of when Arlo said Directs might be over after 2020, only for 2021 to prove that very much not the case.
 
Can we all agree that this was the worst Headlines layout? You basically knew what was coming next.


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I think there will be another Direct before the end of the year. Like I said in a previous post, the September Directs are the last big sales pitch before the holidays. They want to be sure you own a Switch by Christmas and parts of that sales pitch means letting you know what you can look forward right after the holidays. Other than BOTW 2, Nintendo has no first party games scheduled. They are not going to wait till January or February to show off the game if it's coming in Spring. And if it doesn't make Spring, Nintendo still needs to announce what else is coming out in early 2023.
 
mazi said:
just curious, IF we were to have this thread year round, would you prefer it to be called "nintendo direct speculation" or something along the lines of "general nintendo speculation"?
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I’d be content with either option. For the sake of discussion, I will say I’m partial to Nintendo Direct Speculation.

General Nintendo Speculation is not a dealbreaker for me, but it is a little too close to Nintendo General Discussion. Having the word “Direct” in the title makes it clearer (to both site veterans and newcomers) what the main focus/drive of the thread is even when the line gets a little blurry. In that respect, it seems like a way more elegant solution to me.

I know the argument goes “but then what about twitter drops and other non-Direct events like TGA, etc”, but I find that, in actual practice, people tend to discuss those in terms of “what does this announcement mean for the next Direct?” which is 100% within the scope of the topic. Besides, those get their own threads anyway, so that’s where the bulk of discussion for those things happens.

Until Nintendo officially retires Directs permanently, I don’t see a reason to do away with the word Direct in the title. I’d rather we don’t repeat Era’s mistake if we can help it.
 
The important point about September that shouldn't be overlooked is that, at the very least since the Switch launched, Nintendo have held a Direct 6 to 8 days before Tokyo Game Show. Even in 2020, Nintendo held the back to back Partner Showcase and Monster Hunter Direct the week prior to TGS.

Domestic sales and the Japanese market remains important to Nintendo, and so long as the conventional (I.e. non-indie) third party support for Nintendo skews heavily towards Japanese firms, TGS is going to be a significant point on the calendar. TGS 2022 starts on September 15th, and so right now, the week prior to that (with Splatoon 3 releasing) remains the likeliest window for a new Direct.

Given Nintendo have only announced one new title since February - an eShop only game at that - and have delayed two 2022 games in that time (Zelda and Advance Wars), I think it remains likely September is a general presentation with some details on 2023 first party games as well as lots of third party stuff for the October through March period.
 
Wouldn't speculation threads just slow down during non-peak periods? I don't get why having one around is a bad thing. Leave the General Thread for actual gaming stuff instead of rumors.
 
MisterSpo said:
The important point about September that shouldn't be overlooked is that, at the very least since the Switch launched, Nintendo have held a Direct 6 to 8 days before Tokyo Game Show. Even in 2020, Nintendo held the back to back Partner Showcase and Monster Hunter Direct the week prior to TGS.

Domestic sales and the Japanese market remains important to Nintendo, and so long as the conventional (I.e. non-indie) third party support for Nintendo skews heavily towards Japanese firms, TGS is going to be a significant point on the calendar. TGS 2022 starts on September 15th, and so right now, the week prior to that (with Splatoon 3 releasing) remains the likeliest window for a new Direct.

Given Nintendo have only announced one new title since February - an eShop only game at that - and have delayed two 2022 games in that time (Zelda and Advance Wars), I think it remains likely September is a general presentation with some details on 2023 first party games as well as lots of third party stuff for the October through March period.
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I think it's obvious that there will be a september direct but a direct doesn't mean a general direct. It could be a mini or another partner showcase. I'm personally not expecting any more general directs until they unveil the drake, probably immediately after the holidays. Because they're probably waiting to showcase games for it.
 
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This thread has clearly absorbed a lot of the posts from General Discussion, so it does need to be addressed, but I kind of like having this thread around. The conversation here grew up organically in the last few months, just like the original Direct threads on Era. There was a hint of rebelliousness in the chaos of how the threads were structured, which was why it hurt so much when Era admin tried to clamp down and bring it in line with the Xbox and PS community threads. That was one of the first major betrayals of trust that eventually led to this site, I think.

This is a pet theory, but I actually think a lot of the imbalance may stem from General Discussion being stickied; even back on Era, it always seemed to me that stickied threads got less engagement than non-stickied threads. When a thread is stuck to the top of the page, my brain sometimes just tunes it out; it’s hard to tell how active the thread is. When a thread can float around freely and you have to actively hunt for it on the front page, you can really tell when the conversation is hot. It’s hard to explain, but it feels more satisfying to post in the wild west that is the Speculation threads too.

There needs to be a reconciliation between the purpose of this thread and the General Discussion thread to avoid splitting the discussion, I suppose, but I personally think it would be in the spirit of the Famiboards culture to let Direct Speculation grow and develop its culture freely.
 
Homura said:
Usually October and November are all about TGA announcements speculation.
December is the only dead month.
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TGA announcement speculation should have died out long ago. Nothing significant from Nintendo is announced during that event.
MissingNo. said:
Let's be honest, nobody goes there. Willing to bet the majority of people barely check out the Roost section in general once a month, let alone the chit chat thread specifically.
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I didn't even know we had a chit chat thread until now lol. Always thought that was the General Discussion threads purpose.
 
Anatole said:
This is a pet theory, but I actually think a lot of the imbalance may stem from General Discussion being stickied; even back on Era, it always seemed to me that stickied threads got less engagement than non-stickied threads. When a thread is stuck to the top of the page, my brain sometimes just tunes it out; it’s hard to tell how active the thread is. When a thread can float around freely and you have to actively hunt for it on the front page, you can really tell when the conversation is hot. It’s hard to explain, but it feels more satisfying to post in the wild west that is the Speculation threads too.
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I think this is a great point, actually
 
I honestly don't really get why people still think the drake is coming out soon.
If it was coming this year they would have announced it by now. And releasing it early next year would damage holiday sales, whether they announce it publicly or it simply leaks due to manufacturing. Mid to late 2023 just makes the most sense in the current circumstances. And to be honest, it always made the most sense, because it would be extremely difficult to get the orin in the switch without die shrinking it which they probably cant do until late next year.
 
BobNintendofan said:
I honestly don't really get why people still think the drake is coming out soon.
If it was coming this year they would have announced it by now. And releasing it early next year would damage holiday sales, whether they announce it publicly or it simply leaks due to manufacturing. Mid to late 2023 just makes the most sense in the current circumstances. And to be honest, it always made the most sense, because it would be extremely difficult to get the orin in the switch without die shrinking it which they probably cant do until late next year.
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A spring release wouldn't damage holiday sales because this shit will be sold out either way. It doesn't matter when it launches.
 
BobNintendofan said:
I honestly don't really get why people still think the drake is coming out soon.
If it was coming this year they would have announced it by now. And releasing it early next year would damage holiday sales, whether they announce it publicly or it simply leaks due to manufacturing. Mid to late 2023 just makes the most sense in the current circumstances. And to be honest, it always made the most sense, because it would be extremely difficult to get the orin in the switch without die shrinking it which they probably cant do until late next year.
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In what world you live that holiday buyers of consoles are the audience of hardware leaks?
 
september direct with..

  • new fire emblem as opening announcement
  • metroid prime remaster + possible a prime 4 teaser in the middle
  • zelda botw 2 as ending

add more info on announced titles (bayo 3, mario + rabbids 2, pokemon scarlet/violet), a mid budget title for early 2023 (new good-feel game?) and maybe some updates on mario strikers or mario kart. You can have a very good direct will all that (i think?). I think AW1+2 release date will be shadowdropped via twitter later on the year.
 
Raccoon said:
I think this is a great point, actually
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I think a good replacement, if others agree that this is part of the cause, would be removing the sticky from General Discussion, but adding a stickied admin post that has updated links to the main discussion OTs for each month/time period and clearly lays out and explains their different purposes. It would be a charter for the discussion threads, like the Nibel one you used to always put in the OTs. This would help make sure the intent and spirit of each thread is clearly defined for new and current members and give the same utility of updated links.
 
Here is your reminder that in August of 2014, Nintendo announced New 3DS models in Japan. They launched there in October but they were "reintroduced" in January of 2015 and launched only month after that in US and EU.
 
LoneRanger said:
september direct with..

  • new fire emblem as opening announcement
  • metroid prime remaster + possible a prime 4 teaser in the middle
  • zelda botw 2 as ending

add more info on announced titles (bayo 3, mario + rabbids 2, pokemon scarlet/violet), a mid budget title for early 2023 (new good-feel game?) and maybe some updates on mario strikers or mario kart. You can have a very good direct will all that (i think?). I think AW1+2 release date will be shadowdropped via twitter later on the year.
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Zelda BOTW 2 should be opening and they should finish with EPD Tokyo or EPD 9 (if they have something).
 
LukasManak22 said:
Here is your reminder that in August of 2014, Nintendo announced New 3DS models in Japan. They launched there in October but they were "reintroduced" in January of 2015 and launched only month after that.
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You're getting a little mixed up here. The new nintendo 3ds was announced for Japan and released in Japan in the same year. The new 3ds XL was then announced for NA and released in NA in the same year. They did not announce a product for a region for the following year. It is a little confusing because the new 3ds did not actually come out in NA until late 2015 for some reason, Nintendo instead opting to go for an XL.
 
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