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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

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Raccoon said:
please god don't kill the switch yet

it's only a lad
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They can continue the switch while also running a successor. Sony is doing that now, and Nintendo has even somewhat done it themselves. The 3DS lasted about 2 years into the switch's life, and was even getting a handful of exclusive titles. I could see the switch lasting 3 years into Drake's life and running for around 9-10 years overall.
 
BobNintendofan said:
They can continue the switch while also running a successor. Sony is doing that now, and Nintendo has even somewhat done it themselves. The 3DS lasted about 2 years into the switch's life, and was even getting a handful of exclusive titles. I could see the switch lasting 3 years into Drake's life and running for around 9-10 years overall.
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it'll really be dead though, let's be real
 
BobNintendofan said:
They can continue the switch while also running a successor. Sony is doing that now, and Nintendo has even somewhat done it themselves. The 3DS lasted about 2 years into the switch's life, and was even getting a handful of exclusive titles. I could see the switch lasting 3 years into Drake's life and running for around 9-10 years overall.
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They really tried it with the 3DS yes and it instantly died after the Switch so no. I don't think they will do this again.
 
Pflaumenmus12 said:
BotW 2 is probably their most hyped title. They wont start a new direct with it.
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True, but like two Directs already ended with it. It's like, everyone know it will end with Zelda. In E3 2021 Direct it was so obvious they will end with Zelda when Aonuma was talking about everything but not BOTW2. They should have it as one before last thing.
 
Raccoon said:
it'll really be dead though, let's be real
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In terms of first party games, I largely agree. If they launch the drake as a successor as I envision, then most first party games will probably be drake exclusive to get people to upgrade. Nintendo would probably still give it some support, particularly lower budget games and ports/remasters.
But in terms of third party games I think the switch could thrive for a long time, even with a successor. There's going to be like 130m people with a regular switch, and that's a lot of potential software sales.

Also one thing I wonder is if Nintendo might retroactively upgrade Switch's NSO. Let's say they add gamecube and GBA games to the drake, these could also probably be added to the regular switch in lower quality.

And keep in mind when the next console comes we could also see price drops on first party software to increase sales of these existing games. It wouldn't be shocking to see Mario Odyssey eventually on sale for $25 for example. This could help sustain software sales on the previous console despite a new shiny one being out.
 
BobNintendofan said:
In terms of first party games, I largely agree. If they launch the drake as a successor as I envision, then most first party games will probably be drake exclusive to get people to upgrade. Nintendo would probably still give it some support, particularly lower budget games and ports/remasters.
But in terms of third party games I think the switch could thrive for a long time, even with a successor. There's going to be like 130m people with a regular switch, and that's a lot of potential software sales.

Also one thing I wonder is if Nintendo might retroactively upgrade Switch's NSO. Let's say they add gamecube and GBA games to the drake, these could also probably be added to the regular switch in lower quality.

And keep in mind when the next console comes we could also see price drops on first party software to increase sales of these existing games. It wouldn't be shocking to see Mario Odyssey eventually on sale for $25 for example. This could help sustain software sales on the previous console despite a new shiny one being out.
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you think that Switch could not handle GBA games?
 
Pflaumenmus12 said:
They really tried it with the 3DS yes and it instantly died after the Switch so no. I don't think they will do this again.
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I think they can try that move again if the new console is backwards compatible. A big problem of those late 3DS exclusives was that the reaction of lots of people was "Why isn't this on Switch too?!". Let's say that they make some relatively low-effort games (remasters, ports, minor spin-offs...) that can be played in both the current Switch and the next one. Sure, some people might think that it's time to move on and completely drop the previous system, but most people would probably be okay with it.
 
Lord Azrael said:
That's Game Freak though, they operate mostly separately from Nintendo. They're infamously slow to adopt new hardware; they did the same on DS with B2W2
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Detective Pikachu releasing in 2018 in the West is all Nintendo's decision Game Freak has nothing do with it they didn't even develop the game, also Nintendo influence in Game Freak/Pokemon is always underrated they do have some control and the decision to take time to release in new hardware is something they have to talk with Nintendo and probably the result of not wanting to miss kid audience, which are slower adopters.

Raccoon said:
didn't gamefreak publicly think the switch would fail
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They said they didn't expect it to be as successful at the start as it was
 
RE: Survey discussion, I’m totally fine with there being a Speculation Thread open whenever, especially with Nintendo making such unpredictable moves. My only real issue with it is two fold:

1. If it’s a Speculation thread, it should not be the home of discussing actual announcements that happen. Of course they’d be discussed in a meta way (eg. what does this tweet mean for X upcoming expected announcement) but the body of the announcement should be discussed in its own thread (eg. recent Kirby announcement getting it’s own thread).
2. We should take organizing the conversation of this thread vs the General one more seriously. I see a lot of random personal posts in here that luckily don’t pick up much traction, but make this thread a headache to read sometimes and hurt engagement on general. These tend to be from newer or infrequent users who may be confused as to the difference between threads. A pinned message from the staff (above the post entry box) could be helpful, to direct folks over to that thread. Also, if this thread is going to be an ”ongoing” one (and perhaps closed when there is an actual event to speculate on, which gets its own thread), it should be treated equally to the General thread and pinned next to it to help the point being discussed here where pinned threads can get overlooked.
 
Blue Monty said:
Anyone thinking Switch software sales will be dead in two years please check 3DS software sales in 2015-2016 versus Switch 2021-2022.
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I mean this much is true but it had some exclusive games. I don't think they will go back to developing exclusives for an older generation. Especially after Nintendo stating that they benefit greatly from unified game development.
 
Pflaumenmus12 said:
I mean this much is true but it had some exclusive games. I don't think they will go back to developing exclusives for an older generation. Especially after Nintendo stating that they benefit greatly from unified game development.
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My point is more that releasing game for Switch will still be worth due to high software sales, Drake will play this game and better so there is no issue with splitting resources until they start making Drake exclusive games but at that point Drake software sales will be enough to justify it and it will be a slow translation. I see it more as Sony supporting PS4+PS5 right now more than PS4+PSV
 
Blue Monty said:
My point is more that releasing game for Switch will still be worth due to high software sales, Drake will play this game and better so there is no issue with splitting resources until they start making Drake exclusive games but at that point Drake software sales will be enough to justify it and it will be a slow translation. I see it more as Sony supporting PS4+PS5 right now more than PS4+PSV
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yeah that I can get behind.
 
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Switch is a much better performing system than 3DS on both the hardware and software front. I'd expect Nintendo's strategy for long-tail software support to be more successful this time around on that basis.
 
LukasManak22 said:
Can we all agree that this was the worst Headlines layout? You basically knew what was coming next.


headlines.png
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Preach. It might sound like I am an idiot (and I probably am) but I close my eyes when they show these kind of headlines. Nowadays they just show one headline before the clip iirc but I still close my eyes lol.
 
LukasManak22 said:
Can we all agree that this was the worst Headlines layout? You basically knew what was coming next.


headlines.png
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Yeah this wasn’t good. I would constantly look forward to the future headlines and not pay attention to what’s getting announced. The way Directs are now are perfect.
 
Christo750 said:
Yeah this wasn’t good. I would constantly look forward to the future headlines and not pay attention to what’s getting announced. The way Directs are now are perfect.
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Eh not quite. They should stop with the teasing of an upcoming game entirely imo. Just let the trailer play without announcing it's "a return of a classic JRPG" or something like that.
 
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BobNintendofan said:
I honestly don't really get why people still think the drake is coming out soon.
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This has been explained so so so so so many times to you across multiple threads and you keep acting like it hasn't been and then repeating the same position every few days. I honestly don't really get why you keep doing this, and why you keep framing it with this weird passive aggression towards people who don't share your opinion.

BobNintendofan said:
OLED sales would absolutely collapse if a better pro version was announced.
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Not if it's $100 more expensive like expected, which is also something we covered the last time you made this same claim a few days ago.

Raccoon said:
hahaha I thought this was the hardware thread
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That's because he's making the same argument in the hardware thread as we speak
 
Phendrift said:
Wonder if there’s a reason Xeno 3 reviews hit 2 days before instead of the usual 1👀
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Wasn't it supposed to be three days? Last I heard they were dropping on Tuesday instead of the usual Wednesday. Two days is usually the norm, not one, unless I'm just misinterpreting what you said and that's what you meant.
 
SammyJ9 said:
Wasn't it supposed to be three days? Last I heard they were dropping on Tuesday instead of the usual Wednesday. Two days is usually the norm, not one, unless I'm just misinterpreting what you said and that's what you meant.
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Same concept, but you’re right. As a US non-EST person, I get games Thursday night so Nintendo reviews are a usually sign of “oh I’ll be playing this tomorrow night!” : P
 
I don't think Drake will have much in the way of exclusive first party software for its first couple of years. Nintendo doesn't have the capacity to make enough Drakes for it to grow a larger active user base than the Switch, and whatever enhancements it offers to existing games will be enough to keep it selling out for the first year.
 
I think that I solved what "NSW" trademark means. Nintendo Switch Weeb. 99% of Nintendo first party games are anime games. It sounds strange at first, but when you think about it then it makes sense.
 
Edengamer23 said:
I've never played Xenoblade before but may just start on 3 soon idk. Especially seeing that its supposed to be more open world and I love those games
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I think it's still a little up in the air exactly how open world it is, so hopefully the reviews will clarify that better. It seems to be more open than previous Xeno games since the areas are so massive, but not quite truly open like XCX was. At least that's the impression I get so far from previews and the like.
 
chocolate_supra said:
This has been explained so so so so so many times to you across multiple threads and you keep acting like it hasn't been and then repeating the same position every few days. I honestly don't really get why you keep doing this, and why you keep framing it with this weird passive aggression towards people who don't share your opinion.


Not if it's $100 more expensive like expected, which is also something we covered the last time you made this same claim a few days ago.


That's because he's making the same argument in the hardware thread as we speak
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Yes I keep bringing up my arguments for why the Drake is not a pro and for why an announcement is not imminent because people keep arguing that it is a pro and that an announcement is imminent. It it hilarious to me that you believe I need to stop repeating myself when that is all this board does. The entire purpose of this board is to rehash a switch pro existing for the 10th time and claiming an announcement is imminent for over 12 months in a row now.
 
Apopheniac said:
I don't think Drake will have much in the way of exclusive first party software for its first couple of years. Nintendo doesn't have the capacity to make enough Drakes for it to grow a larger active user base than the Switch, and whatever enhancements it offers to existing games will be enough to keep it selling out for the first year.
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I disagree because even for the DSi Nintendo made some exclusive software, I dont expect anything big but a couple of smaller exclusive titles will come imo
 
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BobNintendofan said:
Yes I keep bringing up my arguments for why the Drake is not a pro and for why an announcement is not imminent because people keep arguing that it is a pro and that an announcement is imminent. It it hilarious to me that you believe I need to stop repeating myself when that is all this board does. The entire purpose of this board is to rehash a switch pro existing for the 10th time and claiming an announcement is imminent for over 12 months in a row now.
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We only do that when there's actual evidence, AFAIK thats only happened twice, last year and this year. Last year it turned out to be the OLED and now we just wait until September/end of this year for the second time.
 
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