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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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That's... a completely different discussion though. You're the one who brought up them possibly producing models in 2022 for a launch in 2024, that's a two year delay.
You don't have to buy all or any of the many rumors pointing to 2022 but you should at least acknowledge they exist.
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That's... not a delay. That's how manufacturing works. There's lead times from products being made to them making it to stores. A lot of the release day OG Switches, released in 2017, were manufactured in 2016. Amiibo, which are relatively simple toys, often take 6 months or more from manufacturing start to retail availability. And this is under normal circumstances.
My point is that if they wanted to start manufacturing in late 2022, then they weren't aiming for a 2022 release at all, even without the shortages, because they're gonna need a lead time from Dane existing to it being put on newly made Succs, to there being stock for a launch. We know from the Lite that manufacturing began around 6 months before they actually made it into stores, and this was without shortages.
If they wanted to release a Succ in 2022, manufacturing should probably start in March 2022 by the latest. Is Dane even going to be ready by then?
Which rumors actually point to a 2022 Succ release, is the thing. We know some devs were targeting end of 2022 for some projects, but that doesn't really mean anything as to when those games or the console they're for are releasing. I think Nate has said as much himself. We also have a timeline of when Dane will exist, but that's also not really anything, because those SoCs have to be built into an entire console, and there's gonna be supply chain to account for between Dane SoCs being made and Nintendo building those consoles.
We know Dane doesn't really exist yet, so the devkits for a "4k switch" they have can't actually be running final hardware at all, right? So for all we know, they're targeting late 2022 because that's when Nintendo expects to have final devkits with actual Dane hardware available, and they want the games to be ready for whatever testing and adjustments they have to make.
Like, I'm not disbelieving any rumors here. It's just that even going off the rumors, the 2022 release possibility makes no goddamn sense, less so under a global shortage, lol.
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Manufacturing a console does not take two full years. Usually it takes 6-8 months or so, in this environment maybe closer to 10. 2017 Switches were manufactured in 2016 because the Switch launched in March 2017. That's a gap of 3+ months. Your scenario where 2024 consoles start being manufactured in 2022 is completely out of touch with reality. They'd need to pay astronomical prices for storing all of those millions of finished units and components for 2 years.
Many rumors have explicitly stated the expected launch for the device is 2022. Sources include Jeff Grubb, Nate Drake, Takashi Mochizuki, even the guys from Digital Foundry heard similar. I can't remember if Nikkei explicitly mentioned a 2022 launch too but I do think they alluded to it.
It's not just based on when devs have games ready, I have no idea how that became a narrative here.
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If manufacturing started in late 2022 and the release was on early 2024, we'd have around 18 months. Of which 6-8 would already be the expected lead time from manufacturing start to release. The actual "delay", if you want to name it like that, would be 10-12 months at worst. It's not that unlikely during a component shortage, and it's under half of what you keep saying it would be.
Well, I was under the impression that was literally it, we had a expected launch based on the games having to be ready.
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You keep saying that but again there are still tons of companies putting out electronics products and not running into this issue. Why exactly will Nintendo be affected so drastically and nobody else?
Nope, plenty of sources have explicitly stated they were given a window of when to expect a launch.
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I don't really expect much from Takahashi Mochizuki outside of informing when Nintendo plans on mass manufacturing the DLSS model* if Nintendo plans on launching on holiday 2022.
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He’s been publishing articles on his Nintendo hardware findings for years now. Especially with how things left off in 2021 I can’t imagine he’s just stopped investigating.
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I should clarify that I don't expect much from Takahashi Mochizuki in terms of hardware specs, primarily the SoC, since almost all of the articles I've read from him don't really go in depth in that department. (There's one article Takahashi Mochizuki wrote where he mentioned that the SoC is capable of DLSS, but he didn't really go any further than that.) My apologies for the bad wording.
But I think information from his manufacturing sources is a possibility, such as which display is being used, as an example.
InsouciantSoul
Rattata
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I think it's a strange idea to suggest Nintendo of all companies would stockpile manufactured hardware, when Nintendo is also the company who has been accused of creating artificial scarcity for their products several times in the past.
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Manufacturing the whole device with all the parts that were ordered from start to finish wouldn’t take 10 months. PS5 went into production around June but was in “store” shelves by November.
XBox Series X|S really cut it close and went into production in August for a November release.
Switch Lite went into production like around April(?) for a September release.
Switch OLED display went into production(?) in June but assembly started in July for an October release.
it does not take you over a year of manufacturing to make a device like this. Come on now.
for a device like this to take 14 months to manufacture would have to be something that has gone so horrifically awry that it resulted in such a tike span.
Mind you I’m not talking about them signing a contract for the space to be allocated for their product needs, because even 14 months is very optimistic from signing to getting the space on the fab for the semiconductor, let’s be honest here. You signing in late 2022 isn’t going to get you an early 2024 release unless you’re incredibly lucky here, best look at late 2025 as the most likely outcome here.
I’m talking about from the start of manufacturing to take 14 months to get to a store shelf would have something have gone horrifically awry in between, something that isn’t only the shortages. And they already signed the contracts years prior to the start of this that is 14 months before the store shelves.
The whole process varies, there is no fixed amount of time for this. But, if it takes such a long time for that when you already allocated years in advance from signing, what on earth happened?
Mind you Nintendo isn’t a small company either, they are much bigger than a company like valve in this space.
XBox Series X|S really cut it close and went into production in August for a November release.
Switch Lite went into production like around April(?) for a September release.
Switch OLED display went into production(?) in June but assembly started in July for an October release.
it does not take you over a year of manufacturing to make a device like this. Come on now.
for a device like this to take 14 months to manufacture would have to be something that has gone so horrifically awry that it resulted in such a tike span.
Mind you I’m not talking about them signing a contract for the space to be allocated for their product needs, because even 14 months is very optimistic from signing to getting the space on the fab for the semiconductor, let’s be honest here. You signing in late 2022 isn’t going to get you an early 2024 release unless you’re incredibly lucky here, best look at late 2025 as the most likely outcome here.
I’m talking about from the start of manufacturing to take 14 months to get to a store shelf would have something have gone horrifically awry in between, something that isn’t only the shortages. And they already signed the contracts years prior to the start of this that is 14 months before the store shelves.
The whole process varies, there is no fixed amount of time for this. But, if it takes such a long time for that when you already allocated years in advance from signing, what on earth happened?
Mind you Nintendo isn’t a small company either, they are much bigger than a company like valve in this space.
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No company at Nintendo's scale would run into issues like this, at least. Some projects from much smaller companies are getting hit pretty hard, but even when I'm seeing that happen (like with the retroUSB AVS I ordered recently because I don't have a functional NES), it's not just the shortages at fault.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
The chances of the Switch 2 releasing within a year is probable, assuming that it's based on Orion.
This is because
1. Nvidia sounds confident they aren't affected too much by the shortage, but it could just be PR stunt for investors.
2.Jetson Orion NX module is scheduled to be released in Q4 2022, and developer kits are being sent out in Q1(but for switch, couple of decs have done form of kits or similar hardware) according to insiders who reported a few months back (wsj, Nate?).
.https://developer.nvidia.com/embedded/jetson-orin-nx
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It is just PR
.Improving by 1% is an improvement, doesn’t mean it helps much.
Of course it’s an extreme case that I provided. It’s just that it doesn’t amount to much of anything.
This doesn’t really mean much of anything tbh. ORIN and Dane are two different products meant for two different purposes with the former being for automotive and even facilitating medical use to an extent. The latter is meant for a game console. So ORIN would be a chip that needs very strict regulation. Dane would be a chip that gets clocked really low to fit a portable form factor for a game console.
It’s honestly apples to orange.
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Because we're talking about a product that doesn't physically exist yet.
Dane isn't a physical reality yet, the SoC itself doesn't exist, it hasn't been manufactured yet, it's not as easy as getting parts that exist and have a supply of them available and putting them together.
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And this is the case for basically all electronics hardware that has been released since 2021. Yet, they're still being released. I don't understand why you feel this is going to be so drastically different.
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
Nintendo might manufacture stock for a few months to build up a decent launch number but no company in their right mind would do a 18 month or so run and release the device at a much later date.
How would they even justify such a thing to their investors in quarterly earnings about burning profits while sitting on the product?
Let's be honest limited stock demand only drives more interest in the product and it hasn't hurt either of the PS5 or Series X consoles...
as someone on InstallBase put it, people can take a wait, but a sustained delay in getting a system would put them off on it
in other news, an outlet had an interview with someone with a Steam Deck dev kit. not much here, but I found this relevant
Steam Deck Developer Kit Impressions - Boiling Steam
We had a chance to have a quick Q&A with a developer, who asked to remain anonymous, with hands-on access to the developer kit of the Steam Deck. Because of a non-disclosure agreement (NDA), they couldn’t comment on every question… <a...
boilingsteam.com
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I'd personally be fine with UFS cards being an option for external flash storage for the DLSS model*.in other news, an outlet had an interview with someone with a Steam Deck dev kit. not much here, but I found this relevant
Steam Deck Developer Kit Impressions - Boiling Steam
We had a chance to have a quick Q&A with a developer, who asked to remain anonymous, with hands-on access to the developer kit of the Steam Deck. Because of a non-disclosure agreement (NDA), they couldn’t comment on every question… <a...
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Because we're talking about a product that by all conceivable timelines, wasn't going to be ready for 2022 in a best case scenario, less so the current one.
Please actually read my posts. At no point I say they're going to do a 18 month run.
The investors... that don't know the product is being manufactured... or expect it to release...
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It was originally said to be an early 2022 product, now rumors say it'll definitely be out by early 2023. How on earth is there anything suggesting it wouldn't be ready for 2022 "in a best case scenario".
Everything we've heard literally says the opposite of this.
NineTailSage
Bob-omb
This was what I was replying to...
Again Nintendo would have to explain the exorbitant amounts of capital needed to fund the production of a product that they don't plan on selling in a 3-6 month window... Even with the component shortages Sony are still claiming that they are beating PS4 numbers and its not like Nintendo themselves have revised Switch numbers drastically under what they projected.
The production timeline just fits because Nvidia will be onto TSMC's 5nm with Lovelace and the bulk of Samsung’s 8nm volume would for certain be the new Switch over every potential car using an Orin SoC.
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I think we're confusing ordering with going into production.
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In a document submitted to the UK government by Nvidia that the UK government made public today, Nvidia made some interesting arguments with respect to video game consoles.
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Exclusive as in not coming to the base Switch, not exclusive as in not coming to any other platform at all.
So games like Elden Ring could feasibly count, a game that's coming to Dane Switch and other platforms but not the base Switch.
Look over there
Bob-omb
Indistinguishable in feel lines up with the earlier slide. So that tells us that the NVMe drive is using some really low power state, for battery and/or heat reasons.as someone on InstallBase put it, people can take a wait, but a sustained delay in getting a system would put them off on it
in other news, an outlet had an interview with someone with a Steam Deck dev kit. not much here, but I found this relevant
Steam Deck Developer Kit Impressions - Boiling Steam
We had a chance to have a quick Q&A with a developer, who asked to remain anonymous, with hands-on access to the developer kit of the Steam Deck. Because of a non-disclosure agreement (NDA), they couldn’t comment on every question… <a...
I had this thought that the choice of an NVMe drive over eUFS for the Steam Deck is less for practical speed reasons and more for:
1. Marketing; 'NVMe' is much more recognizable to the presumed target demographic, who'd be assumed to have some familiarity with PC hardware terminology.
2. Secondarily, sure, there's the user replaceability aspect, but I think that reaches a smaller group than 1.
That’s what I mean, so those Dane exclusive versions of 3rd party are, presumably, in dev right now so surely that would not be the case for something launching in just over 2 years time right?
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Presumably, but I also don't really think they're games that need to wait for Dane to be released elsewhere. 2 years would be a very long time though, yeah.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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Around a PS4 in portable mode (in raw theoretical performance), and around the ballpark of an Xbox Series S in docked. Of course the performance of a Series S in a Switch form factor probably gives you an idea of the cost!
In reality bandwidth would probably be the major bottleneck. Even with 128-bit LPDDR5X you'd be pretty severely bottlenecked, I'd imagine. Of course, if money is no object, then a 24GB stack of HBM3 should probably do the job (might want to clock it down a bit, though, 819GB/s is a tad overkill).
It's fair in the sense that GA104 is a 17.4 billion transistor, 392.5mm2 chip, and Orin's a 21 billion transistor, 460mm2 chip. GA104 has a lot more GPU logic, but Orin has CPU cores, deep learning accelerators, vision accelerators, etc., all of which consume power. The RAM situation is definitely different, though, that GDDR6 is hungry.
My point was more that chips of that size are usually GPUs or big server CPUs, designed to consume as much as 200W. The clocks we have for Jetson AGX Orin are for a 50W envelope, and they could certainly clock a lot higher if it wasn't limited to such a low power budget. I'd say CPU clocks around 2.8GHz and GPU around 1.5GHz should probably be doable. In fact, Nvidia advertise 254 TOPS for the Drive AGX Orin (vs 200 for the Jetson Orin), which would suggest some kind of increased clock and power draw in that use-case, although they don't specify whether it's an increase on the GPU or DLA side (or both).
Yeah, I could see them getting a 25%-33% improvement in capacity, which would be a nice bump and might allow closer to Mariko battery life with closer to TX1 power draw, but I don't expect it to make a major change to the capabilities of the console. Basically I'm just trying to caution against unrealistic expectations that things like solid state batteries will come along and triple battery life any time soon.
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Just for clarification, it was me, I said that. And I stand by it.
I couldn't imagine it being a controversial statement in the first place
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I would say that's probably too thick yeahhere's a question for ya. how thicc is too thicc?
here's the new Aya Neo Next for comparison
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I personally think the ideal thickness for the DLSS model* is probably in between the Nintendo Switch's (and the OLED model's) thickness and the AYANEO's thickness.here's a question for ya. how thicc is too thicc?
here's the new Aya Neo Next for comparison
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you're expecting it to be a successor then? I'm curious what the consensus is on that front
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Yes, except with a much longer cross-gen period. Basically, I view the DLSS model* as an iterative successor in a similar manner to the iPhones (e.g. the iPhone 13 is an iterative successor to the iPhone 12, etc.).
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the dock is just a dumb terminal. there's not much there that's worth upgrading outside of, possibly, 4K support. I don't know if people found if the dock was restricted or not because the switch itself is limited to 1080p/60
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yeah but it'd need updating if the tablets were a quarter inch thicker
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I believe the dock is capable of 2160p60 and HDR on a hardware level, maybe not all three at the same time to the best of its abilities, just unlike the OG dock. However, the switch doesn’t have the components for allowing it anyway even if the dock itself is ready from what I gathered a few months ago pertaining to it.
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I don't think Nintendo necessarily made changes to the OLED model's dock to make it future proof.
I think there's a possibility the only reason why the OLED model's dock features a DisplayPort 1.4 to HDMI 2.0b converter chip is simply because the Mobility DisplayPort 1.2a to HDMI 1.4b chips the Nintendo Switch's dock's using are no longer being produced. And considering that the OLED model's still limited to 1080p 60 Hz for TV mode, I don't think Nintendo's planning to add support for upscaling to 4K 60 Hz for TV mode for the OLED model.
And I think there's also a possibility the only reason why the OLED model's dock features a wired LAN port is because Nintendo couldn't really enable USB 3.0 speeds on the USB A 3.0 port in the back of the Nintendo Switch's dock due to USB 3.0 potentially causing radio frequency interference. So Nintendo simply decided to replace the USB A 3.0 port with a wired LAN port. (The network speeds when connected via the wired LAN port is not very good though.)
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Alovon11
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Yeah, and honestly with the environment of a console like a Switch 2, they can control the SSDs better like Msoft is with theirs, or Sony with regulating of what can/can't be used.
The new dock does have firmware upgrades though. So that points to some kind of future proofing.
Esticamelapixa
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The GTAV thread got me thinking and I have a question for the well informed people on this thread regarding the Dane model. Based on the "rumoured" specs (by rumoured I'm referring to the expectations based on your educated guesses):
- how much is the total storage it can have?
- how much storage do you expect it to have?
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Total storage is 1024GB I think for eUFS that was released a couple of months ago, no phone has higher than 512GB though but even those are very expensive devices despite the heavy markup that they do to them as it is fast flash storage.
I think 1TB is what it can have as the most, how much do I expect it to have? 128GB at minimum, and use the microSD card still, I can’t depend on it using the UFS cards as a possibility despite being good for a device of this nature, even if the hardware can work for both. As in, a UFS reader works with a Micro SD card reader.
This is an area I’m pessimistic about. Hopefully they opt for UFS compatible and just support both.
Devs aren’t really requesting a stupid fast SSD so it isn’t like they can’t have that which is pretty close, but it’s unknown if Nintendo will try what they tagged with the n64 which is very fast loading.
I went in a tangent, my bad.
eMMC 128GB storage, 256GB UFS (or similarly fast storage) is the sweet spot but I’m not banking on that.
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