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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Machrider said:
Well Nintendo, looks like you made it. Five, going on four days till Christmas and no Switch 2 leak to interfere with Switch 1 holiday sales. Mission: accomplished on that front, now lets bring on 2024 and get to it.
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Well, the thing is, Nintendo can't announce the Switch 2 in 2024 because it would affect the 2024 holiday sales.

I'm kidding, I'm kidding.
 
Machrider said:
Well Nintendo, looks like you made it. Five, going on four days till Christmas and no Switch 2 leak to interfere with Switch 1 holiday sales. Mission: accomplished on that front, now lets bring on 2024 and get to it.
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I will leak the Switch 2 at 11:59 PM on Christmas Eve and RUIN their holiday sales. Everyone will return the Switches they've bought for their family that didn't know video games existed before now.
 
carbvan said:
I will leak the Switch 2 at 11:59 PM on Christmas Eve and RUIN their holiday sales. Everyone will return the Switches they've bought for their family that didn't know video games existed before now.
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anime-boy.gif
 
What would bring chaos would be a late january/early february direct without any mention of the next Switch.
And there are chances that it will happen. Imo they'll try to somehow announce that hardware news will come very soon though.
 
Herb Alpert said:
What would bring chaos would be a late january/early february direct without any mention of the next Switch.
And there are chances that it will happen. Imo they'll try to somehow announce that hardware news will come very soon though.
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"Hello this is Miyamoto. Be excited for our next big title this Holiday 2024: Hey Pikmin Deluxe!"
 
Ghostsonplanets said:
In others news:


Mobile DRAM and Storage prices are on the rise after some years in the slump. Might signify that Nintendo has very little room to maneuver with regards to RAM and Storage and whatever they have chosen, it's final spec by now.
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I am pretty sure Nintendo by now has all the long-term contracts for components covered and won't worry much about the spot market.
 
bmfrosty said:
It should be noted that Microsoft really wants to get out of the $500 console business and wants to change the business model to streaming. Arguments on technical merit of such an endeavour is currently the big question and the part that's not really solved. They want the business model to be that they sell you a controller that talks to whatever device is hooked to your TV and you pay a subscription for gamepass games, and buy non-gamepass games individually, then they run the games on whichever Azure hardware fits the bill.

The big hurdle is latency, and apparently RFC9330 improves that a huge amount.
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Is there any details on RFC9330? Like how much better is it? Any sign that Microsoft is planning to use it?
 
I think we still have one more fully Switch only direct left in Feb/March.

Then we’ll probably get some separate “reveal video” of the system a few weeks after.

Their “E3” summer event will be a proper showcase of the system and its launch details.

September direct will be a hybrid of both Switch and next gen with next gen launching soon after.

That’s how I feel it’ll play out.
 
I'm a little new to this thread so I apologize if it's already been asked but when do you all realistically think new Nintendo hardware could be announced? I've been thinking it could be announced at some point next month in a similar way they did with the Nintendo Switch but I don't know if that would have implications on an early year Nintendo Direct as well in terms of games they'd announce and if they'd announce any first party ones before a larger presentation for the console. I apologize for rambling a little at the end!
 
3dsboss said:
I'm a little new to this thread so I apologize if it's already been asked but when do you all realistically think new Nintendo hardware could be announced? I've been thinking it could be announced at some point next month in a similar way they did with the Nintendo Switch but I don't know if that would have implications on an early year Nintendo Direct as well in terms of games they'd announce and if they'd announce any first party ones before a larger presentation for the console. I apologize for rambling a little at the end!
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It’s highly likely that the hardware will be announced between March-June - if the plan is for a 2024 release.
 
chocolate_supra said:
That video is a very apt metaphor for how my hype is gonna go, actually.

Switch 2 announced = celebration on Endor

Switch 2 then shown to have monochrome buttons = Hayden Christensen appearing in place of Sebastian Shaw
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I really needed this laugh while catching up with the thread this morning (would have spit out my coffee if I was still drinking it). Anyway, back to lurking...
 
3dsboss said:
I'm a little new to this thread so I apologize if it's already been asked but when do you all realistically think new Nintendo hardware could be announced? I've been thinking it could be announced at some point next month in a similar way they did with the Nintendo Switch but I don't know if that would have implications on an early year Nintendo Direct as well in terms of games they'd announce and if they'd announce any first party ones before a larger presentation for the console. I apologize for rambling a little at the end!
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great username
 
3dsboss said:
I'm a little new to this thread so I apologize if it's already been asked but when do you all realistically think new Nintendo hardware could be announced?
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YolkFolk said:
It’s highly likely that the hardware will be announced between March-June - if the plan is for a 2024 release.
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If the plan is for a 2024 release, then an announcement prior to the beginning of May, when the sales forecast for the coming FY will be released, seems almost certain.

I guess there is still a chance of a minimalist announcement with a press release and not much more in late January or early February, but in general rumours seem to be lining up for March pretty nicely, with Nate saying that something, probably the reveal/announcement, is scheduled for March, and Necro now claiming that this thread will blow up then. That would entail one last investor Q&A with frustrating non-answers in early February, but if everyone expects the reveal to be just a month or two away at that point, then I guess Furukawa can get away with it without too much fallout.
 
i wonder if nintendo may feel more pressure to at least give their stockholders something (“we are indeed releasing a console this year!” type stuff) sooner due to the relatively poor holiday results so far. maybe we get something by the february Q&A to at least bolster shareholder confidence?
 
rêverie said:
i wonder if nintendo may feel more pressure to at least give their stockholders something (“we are indeed releasing a console this year!” type stuff) sooner due to the relatively poor holiday results so far. maybe we get something by the february Q&A to at least bolster shareholder confidence?
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I don’t think their holiday results are poor.
They will easily reach their 15M target by the end of this FY.
 
rêverie said:
i wonder if nintendo may feel more pressure to at least give their stockholders something (“we are indeed releasing a console this year!” type stuff) sooner due to the relatively poor holiday results so far. maybe we get something by the february Q&A to at least bolster shareholder confidence?
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No. Nintendo is still on track to hit their sales goal for the year. The pressure wont really build until the fiscal year concludes. As fans, impatiently waiting causes us to hope they feel pressure so we can get this thing announced sooner rather than later, but the reality is Nintendo is feeling no pressure at the moment. The top 10 best selling games this past week in Japan were all Switch titles. Things are certainly on the decline, but they have in no way fallen off the cliff.

With the success of the Switch and the sustained year after year demand Nintendo likely feels good about long generations going forward. Nintendo has very little competition in the portable market and with what we know about T239's specs, it will be a very capable portable console for the next 7-8 years. With this plan, it may have made sense to spec the hardware for the long term. For example, 16GB of ram could be considered a bit overkill for it in 2024, but six years later not so much. Same with internal storage, they could get away with 256GB of internal storage in 2024, but if they choose to go with 512GB, that will be a blessing years down the road.

Even though I do expect fast internal storage for SNG, I expect MicroSD cards to be the solution for expanding storage. Not all games will require the fast internal storage, and the speeds for MicroSD are fast enough to make swapping to and from internal storage acceptable. Perhaps the reader will support the newer high speed MicroSD cards, but I do not see it being mandatory.
 
Erika said:
I don’t think their holiday results are poor.
They will easily reach their 15M target by the end of this FY.
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Goodtwin said:
No. Nintendo is still on track to hit their sales goal for the year. The pressure wont really build until the fiscal year concludes. As fans, impatiently waiting causes us to hope they feel pressure so we can get this thing announced sooner rather than later, but the reality is Nintendo is feeling no pressure at the moment. The top 10 best selling games this past week in Japan were all Switch titles. Things are certainly on the decline, but they have in no way fallen off the cliff.

With the success of the Switch and the sustained year after year demand Nintendo likely feels good about long generations going forward. Nintendo has very little competition in the portable market and with what we know about T239's specs, it will be a very capable portable console for the next 7-8 years. With this plan, it may have made sense to spec the hardware for the long term. For example, 16GB of ram could be considered a bit overkill for it in 2024, but six years later not so much. Same with internal storage, they could get away with 256GB of internal storage in 2024, but if they choose to go with 512GB, that will be a blessing years down the road.

Even though I do expect fast internal storage for SNG, I expect MicroSD cards to be the solution for expanding storage. Not all games will require the fast internal storage, and the speeds for MicroSD are fast enough to make swapping to and from internal storage acceptable. Perhaps the reader will support the newer high speed MicroSD cards, but I do not see it being mandatory.
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i'm not sure of how on track they are for their total FY tbf, but the fact remains that the holiday sales are not that great. the switch sold only almost half of 2022's US sales (ballpark of 530k TY) and have yet to crack a 100k week since the holiday season started in japan. not sure of europe's holiday performance, but that's not great - which is what i was referring to. notice i didn't mention FY results but rather just holiday sales. if anything, their surprisingly good Q2 is what is propping them up.

also, i don't think they're falling off a cliff, that would be a pretty dramatic statement lol.
 
rêverie said:
i'm not sure of how on track they are for their total FY tbf, but the fact remains that the holiday sales are not that great. the switch sold only almost half of 2022's US sales (ballpark of 530k TY) and have yet to crack a 100k week since the holiday season started in japan. not sure of europe's holiday performance, but that's not great - which is what i was referring to. notice i didn't mention FY results but rather just holiday sales. if anything, their surprisingly good Q2 is what is propping them up.

also, i don't think they're falling off a cliff, that would be a pretty dramatic statement lol.
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As long as not that great is close enough to what they expected, there's no reason for it to make them change their behavior from what they expected.
 
Erika said:
I don’t think their holiday results are poor.
They will easily reach their 15M target by the end of this FY.
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I don't understand why for the past few days we've been constantly reading this fan fiction about supposedly poor results. The targets set are very ambitious and there's nothing to suggest that they won't be reached at the end of the fiscal year, but it's either become apparently factual that sales are poor, for reasons I don't know or perhaps because people's impatience makes them want that to be true.
 
rêverie said:
i'm not sure of how on track they are for their total FY tbf, but the fact remains that the holiday sales are not that great. the switch sold only almost half of 2022's US sales (ballpark of 530k TY) and have yet to crack a 100k week since the holiday season started in japan. not sure of europe's holiday performance, but that's not great - which is what i was referring to. notice i didn't mention FY results but rather just holiday sales. if anything, their surprisingly good Q2 is what is propping them up.

also, i don't think they're falling off a cliff, that would be a pretty dramatic statement lol.
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The important thing is not to know the results of the previous year, but to know the objectives for the current year. If they are not achieved, we can speak of poor sales. For the moment, there's nothing to suggest that this is the case.

On the other hand, if you think that because of the current trajectory we know that Nintendo will be forced to accept failure and won't be able to sell 15 million units, then I understand. But talking about last year's holiday season assumes that Nintendo wasn't able to factor a decline into its overall forecasts, and so far there's no evidence of that.
 
gnetc said:


Gonna feel like this when that happens
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What if... (©️) the Switch 2 is to the Switch 1 what Episode VI Special Edition is to OG Episode VI ? Same old stuff but with added nightmarish things that don't belong here and just makes everything worse ?
 
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Watching recent videos from LowSpecGamer on the Game Boy, Virtual boy, GBC, and just the general history of Nintendo’s early days in the video game industry, if Yamauchi were still around, and was still leading Nintendo, how things would be right now?

Would the Blue Ocean strategy, the Casual Market, the Wii, etc all have been part of the equation? Or would Nintendo have doubled down on trying to rival against Sony, and also Microsoft in the horsepower wars?

(Yes, I know they’re still competing against them in reality)
 
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boodream said:
I don't understand why for the past few days we've been constantly reading this fan fiction about supposedly poor results. The targets set are very ambitious and there's nothing to suggest that they won't be reached at the end of the fiscal year, but it's either become apparently factual that sales are poor, for reasons I don't know or perhaps because people's impatience makes them want that to be true.
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boodream said:
The important thing is not to know the results of the previous year, but to know the objectives for the current year. If they are not achieved, we can speak of poor sales. For the moment, there's nothing to suggest that this is the case.

On the other hand, if you think that because of the current trajectory we know that Nintendo will be forced to accept failure and won't be able to sell 15 million units, then I understand. But talking about last year's holiday season assumes that Nintendo wasn't able to factor a decline into its overall forecasts, and so far there's no evidence of that.
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please stop hyperbolizing what i'm saying. this is not a fan fiction, i'm not saying they won't meet their FY results, and i'm not saying they need to accept failure. all i'm saying is the holiday results have not been that great so far (really not a crazy statement - a 62% drop in US november YoY sales for instance, is not great to any business) and was purposing that maybe they'd feel pressure by their shareholders to announce something sooner. personally, i am expecting a march announcement like many others.

granted, the NPD results from november haven't negatively affected their stocks at all and they've actually been climbing. which is interesting.
 
It makes no sense to take a year-on-year figure without any context, for example without knowing Nintendo's specific forecasts. It assumes that Nintendo's forecasts didn't expect this drop. If that's the case, then they won't reach their target of 15 million units sold. My point is that we don't know yet, so it's risky to say. It's not being hyperbolic to say that using this decline in this way, without linking it to anything, is not necessarily relevant.
 
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rêverie said:
please stop hyperbolizing what i'm saying. this is not a fan fiction, i'm not saying they won't meet their FY results, and i'm not saying they need to accept failure. all i'm saying is the holiday results have not been that great so far (really not a crazy statement - a 62% drop in US november YoY sales for instance, is not great to any business) and was purposing that maybe they'd feel pressure by their shareholders to announce something sooner. personally, i am expecting a march announcement like many others.

granted, the NPD results from november haven't negatively affected their stocks at all and they've actually been climbing. which is interesting.
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I don't think any increased pressure from their shareholders (which is not happening, cause everyone expected a YoY loss...yadda yadda yadda uncharted territory etc.) would get Nintendo to do anything sooner. They don't need to get things done sooner. They need to get it done right. So whatever they have been planning for the past few years, they just need to execute.

And because everybody "knows" that it's a Switch 2 and because everybody "knows" that it's coming out in 2024, nobody is worried (yet*) and they are already looking past/ignoring this holiday season - unless it craters compared to the expectations (and even then, meh) . So obviously Nintendo can't afford to look past it, publicly anyway.

*i imagine after the reveal there will be some criticism about something or other.
 
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Hosermess said:
I don't think any increased pressure from their shareholders (which is not happening, cause everyone expected a YoY loss...yadda yadda yadda uncharted territory etc.) would not get them to do anything sooner. They don't need to get things done sooner. They need to get it done right. So whatever they have been planning for the past few years, they just need to execute.

And because everybody "knows" that it's a Switch 2 and because everybody "knows" that it's coming out in 2024, nobody is worried (yet*) and is already looking past/ignoring this holiday season - unless it craters compared to the expectations (and even then, meh) . So obviously Nintendo can't afford to look past it, publicly anyway.

*i imagine after the reveal there will be some criticism about something or other.
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yah, i fully believe nintendo already has pretty concrete roadmaps in mind for the switch 2 rollout next year. i don't think they'll really stray from that either as, like you said, there's not much of a reason to change the roadmap. what i was thinking when i made the original post, but didn't outright say, was during the Q&A some stockholder bringing up the holiday sales as a sore point for them and further pushing for a real acknowledgment of the successor. especially since at that point we'll be past the holidays, the likelihood of some type of acknowledgment is at least a little more probable than it has been before.

i wouldn't go so far as to say that nintendo is ignoring this holiday season, though. i think them pushing bundles this holiday more than they seemingly ever have before does allude to the fact that they are keenly aware they had to do something more to prop up sales this season. that, or like others mentioned i think in this thread before, that could've been them clearing out stock. either way, it's something.
 
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With Elden Ring DLC remaining missing in action, I wonder if it isn't connected to the new hardware. I think Elden Ring as a launch or near launch title makes an extraordinary amount of sense. Furthermore I think it would be a great showing of the hardware, "we can do 4K Elden Ring too, and when you need to go somewhere, it's portable!". Third party titles to emphasise the power and support of the platform will be beneficial, but I wonder just what the development environment is like. Are they good enough for slick, day and date ports without an extraordinary amount more effort due to the difference architecture. Getting Elden Ring DLC (and perhaps a re-release?) day and date with other platforms would be nice.
 
boodream said:
I don't understand why for the past few days we've been constantly reading this fan fiction about supposedly poor results. The targets set are very ambitious and there's nothing to suggest that they won't be reached at the end of the fiscal year, but it's either become apparently factual that sales are poor, for reasons I don't know or perhaps because people's impatience makes them want that to be true.
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The results thus far are a coin flip whether they will hit their fiscal targets. We'll know what they post in early Feb but last Q3 their sell through was poorer than expected. I do not anticipate this Q3 is going to be favourable even keeping the natural decline in mind.

rêverie said:
granted, the NPD results from november haven't negatively affected their stocks at all and they've actually been climbing. which is interesting.
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There is 0 reason to think one Circana report from one region for one month would make shareholders freak out.
 
I think the best way to keep youtubers from mining this thread for video fodder would be to keep a constant mill of arguments like the GB to GBC: Pro vs. successor cycle that just concluded. I'll provide some ideas for further distraction:
What if N64 used CDs?
What if N64 used zip disks?
Should the gamecube controller have used a bean-shaped B button or was it right to change it to a circle?
Is the Super Mario World goomba a true goomba?
Is Captain Toad the Toad in Mario Kart 64?
Would Twelve Tales: Conker 64 have been better than Bad Fur Day?
 
Brannigan said:
I think the best way to keep youtubers from mining this thread for video fodder would be to keep a constant mill of arguments like the GB to GBC: Pro vs. successor cycle that just concluded. I'll provide some ideas for further distraction:
What if N64 used CDs?
What if N64 used zip disks?
Should the gamecube controller have used a bean-shaped B button or was it right to change it to a circle?
Is the Super Mario World goomba a true goomba?
Is Captain Toad the Toad in Mario Kart 64?
Would Twelve Tales: Conker 64 have been better than Bad Fur Day?
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The industry would be a much different place.
There'd be more JRPGs on N64 maybe, but thats it.
Circle
No
No
Absolutely not.
 
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