As
@LiC points out, purely napkin math, so big grain of salt. But yeah, 4k output won't be free. The question will be when would more-pixels-less-features be better than more-features-fewer-pixels. As upscaling gets heavier, then that trade-off will just tend to favor the latter.
Total bullshit example - if 4k DLSS is 8ms of frame time, and 1440p is 4ms of frame time, well, for a 60fps game, that is a giant chunk of time you could spend on shadows, particle effects, r a y t r a c i n g.
If it's instead 4ms and 2ms, then it's more of a shrug, right?
Yes, you are correct.
Well, who is to say that bumping from 1440p internal to 720p internal is enough performance to let 4k output be viable? It will absolutely depend on the game.
But it's also what the developers decide is the right balance between visual features and performance. Some of that will come down to personal preferences, but it's also about the games themselves. DLSS's artifacting is worst under lower frame rate, faster paced games, it struggles with particle effects and has to start off anytime the camera cuts.
In other words,
Death Stranding might look gorgeous under Ultra Performance, but
Bayonetta 3 completely becomes an unplayable fizzle-fest.