StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[YolkFolk]

Right. They’re not going to announce it before the busy holiday selling if it’s not going to be available this year. And it won’t be, so I wouldn’t expect an announcement this year.

I think it’ll be a 2H 2023 product, to be honest. Like the OLED and Switch Lite were, and like the majority of Nintendo’s hardware has been since time immemorial.

If Zelda is confirmed for Spring 2023 at the Direct then I’ll be confident of this hardware coming in that same time frame. It just makes too much sense for them to launch at the same time. The game could potentially be a fantastic showcase.

 

[ShaunSwitch]

Guys can we stop with the ram debate? Lol feels like we’re talking in circles. All that we know for sure is that it will be increased.

Spoiler

To 16GB!!!!

8 * 256bit interface 4GB modules for 32GB of ram at 800gbs or Drake is dead on arrival. (I have no idea how to calculate bus speed.)

Let’s talk about something else that we will inevitably get tired of by page 499 of the same discussion

Should we do storage? Node? CPU Core count? Size of the device? Release date? Drive-by posters getting run out of the thread? Pro vs succ? Whether the leaks are real? Chinese forum posters?


These are the most common topics we burn to the ground after all and retouch on again and again


What did I miss?


im kidding, I don’t want another +30 pages of these topics that we ran drier than the Wii U gaming scene

Can we talk about how the console will smell once its warmed up. No? Is it just me who likes to smell that warm SOC Air blowing out of the top vent?

 

[Dakhil]

Let’s talk about something else that we will inevitably get tired of by page 499 of the same discussion

Should we do storage? Node? CPU Core count? Size of the device? Release date? Drive-by posters getting run out of the thread? Pro vs succ? Whether the leaks are real? Chinese forum posters?


These are the most common topics we burn to the ground after all and retouch on again and again


What did I miss?


im kidding, I don’t want another +30 pages of these topics that we ran drier than the Wii U gaming scene

It's time to upscale FSR 2 even further: Meet FSR 2.1!

One of our engineers shares the improvements we've made with AMD FidelityFX Super Resolution 2 to ghosting, temporal stability, and more.

gpuopen.com

 

[Link_enfant]

8 * 256bit interface 4GB modules for 32GB of ram at 800gbs or Drake is dead on arrival. (I have no idea how to calculate bus speed.)



Can we talk about how the console will smell once its warmed up. No? Is it just me who likes to smell that warm SOC Air blowing out of the top vent?

Dude, you are not alone. I did many times on my launch Switch for some reason lol
Hope Drake smells even better!

 

[Concernt]

12GB is the floor. I honestly don't know how that 8GB nonsense managed to gain so much traction. As if the mobile space had any influence on the Switch other than the obvious.

The mobile space has had huge influence on Nintendo Switch!

It's just that in the mobile space, 12GB of LPDDR5 is pretty affordable. I've had it since 2020. With how fast mobile technology comes down in price, I have no doubt it's the floor!

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

12GB is the floor. I honestly don't know how that 8GB nonsense managed to gain so much traction. As if the mobile space had any influence on the Switch other than the obvious.

I don't have any special knowledge, but not sure why 8 is such a nonsense possibility. Switch came 3.5 years after the stationary consoles and had half the RAM. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and still having half the RAM would be a slight improvement. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and having 3/4 the RAM would be a huge improvement. If next Switch had gained RAM from its predecessor at the same rate as the stationary consoles, we might expect it to be around 7.2 GB (were such a thing possible).

I think it’ll be a 2H 2023 product, to be honest. Like the OLED and Switch Lite were, and like the majority of Nintendo’s hardware has been since time immemorial.

Keeping things to this century for simplicity: GBA, 3DS, Switch are kind of big deals. If adding in revisions: GBASP and DS Lite are the biggest deals there have been.

I'm hearing a lot of "the holiday season is coming, they won't announce hardware just before then" and it's like... 3DS feels bad that you forgot about it so badly that you don't recall that exact thing was done to it when Switch's launch date was pegged for March of 2017 in April of the prior year.

A lot less to lose. 3DS never performed on the level of something like DS, Wii, or Switch, and in 2016 was only pushing about a third the numbers Switch is now. Sure, there are other older instances where the hardware was announced a year+ in advance, but if they were still playing things that way we should have expected the announcement earlier this year.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Let’s talk about something else that we will inevitably get tired of by page 499 of the same discussion

Should we do storage? Node? CPU Core count? Size of the device? Release date? Drive-by posters getting run out of the thread? Pro vs succ? Whether the leaks are real? Chinese forum posters?


These are the most common topics we burn to the ground after all and retouch on again and again


What did I miss?


im kidding, I don’t want another +30 pages of these topics that we ran drier than the Wii U gaming scene

how ray tracing can improve nintendo games

I mean have you seen the latest Pokemon trailer? Arceus knows that game needs some ray traced shadows

 

[Deleted member 887]

It's time to upscale FSR 2 even further: Meet FSR 2.1!

One of our engineers shares the improvements we've made with AMD FidelityFX Super Resolution 2 to ghosting, temporal stability, and more.

gpuopen.com

That footage almost makes 2.0 look unusuably bad, though I suppose the field tilling is a worst case scenario for all of the issues resolved in 2.1

 

[KMStwo]

If Zelda is confirmed for Spring 2023 at the Direct then I’ll be confident of this hardware coming in that same time frame. It just makes too much sense for them to launch at the same time. The game could potentially be a fantastic showcase.

I think so too. There is no reason to release Botw2 and Drake individually if they are less than 12 months appart.

Not that Drake needs Botw2 to sell or vice versa but neither do the basic Switch. Releasing it on the basic Switch before Drake drops would just count as another monthly release(even if it is a massive title) full stop(which I personally feel like kind of a waste). While releasing with Drake would count as a significant launch title, a monthly release and a showcase title for the Next Switch which will in turn show Botw2 in its best shape.

I believe there shall be (much) more than a resolution buff this time around. We are taking about the Switch and Switch Drake not the Wii U and the Switch or the Gamecube and the Wii.

Infact, z0m3le said he heard they were tied together if I recall correctly, so we should just wait.

 

[Onizuka]

Excuse, where are we now? I am a bit lost at this point.
As I currently understand Switch Drake (or Pro or whatever the name of it) has two possibilities:

-Tegra Orin NX: Power of 1.6 Tflops Docked, Ampere Architecture (8nm Samsung)
*Similar power to PS4 Portable and PS4 Pro in Dock, if I understand correctly

-Tegra T239: 2.4 Tflops Docked Power, Ampere Architecture with Lovelace Features (TSMC 5nm)
*Similar power to PS4 Pro Portable and Series S in Dock, if I understand correctly


At the point where we find ourselves (following credible rumors, through news, Nvidia's announcement a few days ago [August 23, 2022 → Nvidia via Hot Chips 34 (via ServeTheHome)]), which of the two options is more feasible and where are we headed? Or is it none of those?
What is the current point? Thank you very much.

 

[LiC]

-Tegra Orin NX: Power of 1.6 Tflops Docked, Ampere Architecture (8nm Samsung)
*Similar power to PS4 Portable and PS4 Pro in Dock, if I understand correctly

I don't think this has ever been a possibility.

-Tegra T239: 2.4 Tflops Docked Power, Ampere Architecture with Lovelace Features (TSMC 5nm)
*Similar power to PS4 Pro Portable and Series S in Dock, if I understand correctly

The TFLOPS depend entirely on the clock speed, "with Lovelace features" is overselling it, and TSMC 5nm is complete speculation. And the comparisons to other consoles are also contingent on so many factors that they're probably a bad idea. But T239 is indeed the chip we're expecting, because:

At the point where we find ourselves (following credible rumors, through news, Nvidia's announcement a few days ago [August 23, 2022 → Nvidia via Hot Chips 34 (via ServeTheHome)]), which of the two options is more feasible and where are we headed? Or is it none of those?
What is the current point? Thank you very much.

Nvidia's new graphics API for Nintendo is explicitly intended to run on T239, the same chip that the one reliable Nvidia leaker said Nintendo would use.

 

[ILikeFeet]

That footage almost makes 2.0 look unusuably bad

it was that bad though

Excuse, where are we now? I am a bit lost at this point.
As I currently understand Switch Drake (or Pro or whatever the name of it) has two possibilities:

-Tegra Orin NX: Power of 1.6 Tflops Docked, Ampere Architecture (8nm Samsung)
*Similar power to PS4 Portable and PS4 Pro in Dock, if I understand correctly

-Tegra T239: 2.4 Tflops Docked Power, Ampere Architecture with Lovelace Features (TSMC 5nm)
*Similar power to PS4 Pro Portable and Series S in Dock, if I understand correctly


At the point where we find ourselves (following credible rumors, through news, Nvidia's announcement a few days ago [August 23, 2022 → Nvidia via Hot Chips 34 (via ServeTheHome)]), which of the two options is more feasible and where are we headed? Or is it none of those?
What is the current point? Thank you very much.

it's always was the T239. but the points you mentioned are not confirmed. all we know is that it's the same Ampere as the desktops and the node is unknown. Series S in docked mode is overselling a number of things

 

[Dakhil]

NVIDIA announces September 20 "GeForce Beyond: Special Broadcast at GTC", GeForce RTX 40 series incoming - VideoCardz.com

GeForce RTX 40 might have its announcement date The “Project Beyond” teaser is for the upcoming “GeForce Beyond” special broadcast. On September 20 NVIDIA will have a special event dedicated to GeForce series. This event will be part of the Graphics Technology Conference (GTC). The time and date...

videocardz.com

GeForce Beyond: A Special Broadcast at GTC 2022

With NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang

www.nvidia.com

 

[Terrell]

A lot less to lose. 3DS never performed on the level of something like DS, Wii, or Switch, and in 2016 was only pushing about a third the numbers Switch is now. Sure, there are other older instances where the hardware was announced a year+ in advance, but if they were still playing things that way we should have expected the announcement earlier this year.

This is the definition of selective quotation and missing not just the point being made, but also the one it was responding to. They did this very thing to their most successful hardware of all time, too, as I pointed out.

Also, 3DS revenue was the ONLY thing left to lose. FEH wasn’t out until Feb 2017, 3DS was their only viable revenue source, so saying they had ”less to lose” when it was the only thing left to lose is… a take.

 

[mjayer]

Is there something Nintendo has to announce that’s so important that they would delay it due to the passing of a monarch?

 

[lexony]

Is there something Nintendo has to announce that’s so important that they would delay it due to the passing of a monarch?

Mario Strikers Update

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

Mario Strikers Update

Has to be Birdo.

 

[Simba1]

Lol feels like we’re talking in circles.

I mean of course we are going in circles, and we will keep going in circles until we have official announcement and breakdown of hardware itself.

 

[Simba1]

If Zelda is confirmed for Spring 2023 at the Direct then I’ll be confident of this hardware coming in that same time frame. It just makes too much sense for them to launch at the same time. The game could potentially be a fantastic showcase.

Yeah, IMO currently best bet is announcements early next year and launch alongside Zelda BOTW 2.

 

[Gianko]

If Zelda 2 will be on both console, it will sell more on the actual Switch due the installed base. It’s not WIU scenario. So why waiting for Switch 2?

 

[Herb Alpert]

If Zelda 2 will be on both console, it will sell more on the actual Switch due the installed base. It’s not WIU scenario. So why waiting for Switch 2?

It would be the perfect showcase of what the system can do and the best opportunity to kickstart the system by taking all the enthusiasts on board immediately.

 

[arsen]

If Zelda 2 will be on both console, it will sell more on the actual Switch due the installed base. It’s not WIU scenario. So why waiting for Switch 2?

marketing strategy, long awaited game being promoted on new hardware will make more noise for said hardware. (but might not happen if BOTW2 is shown in next direct)

 

[Link_enfant]

That's why at some point I always thought they wouldn't show BOTW2 again before a proper Drake hardware reveal, but I guess that's what they're going for. I hope it's not too much to the detriment of the Drake version - that is, if it has a separated SKU/edtion for Drake but I don't see how they could make a system like Smart Delivery work on the Switch family.

 

[Terrell]

If Zelda 2 will be on both console, it will sell more on the actual Switch due the installed base. It’s not WIU scenario. So why waiting for Switch 2?

In the first year or so, perhaps. But the original BotW is still appearing in the Famitsu Top 30 (#26 this past week, in fact) and is a semi-regular fixture of NPD sales figures on Switch 5 years later, and that's just tracking retail physical sales. Do you think Switch has 5 more years of driving that same level of persistent software sales left in it to get it to anywhere near the same level as the original release of BotW all on its own? I'm not so confident in that.

 

[Mirev]

If Zelda 2 will be on both console, it will sell more on the actual Switch due the installed base. It’s not WIU scenario. So why waiting for Switch 2?

To sell the system to who wants better performance.

 

[mjayer]

That's why at some point I always thought they wouldn't show BOTW2 again before a proper Drake hardware reveal, but I guess that's what they're going for. I hope it's not too much to the detriment of the Drake version - that is, if it has a separated SKU/edtion for Drake but I don't see how they could make a system like Smart Delivery work on the Switch family.

Honestly this is why I believe we’ve seen so very little of the game. Marketing for BOTW was on point, legit some of the best video game trailers of all time. For the sequel (that has now been in production for just as long or longer?) just short glimpse. Just a taste.

That big epic trailer for the sequel is gonna be all drake build baby.

 

[Dekuman]

I don't have any special knowledge, but not sure why 8 is such a nonsense possibility. Switch came 3.5 years after the stationary consoles and had half the RAM. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and still having half the RAM would be a slight improvement. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and having 3/4 the RAM would be a huge improvement. If next Switch had gained RAM from its predecessor at the same rate as the stationary consoles, we might expect it to be around 7.2 GB (were such a thing possible).

Keeping things to this century for simplicity: GBA, 3DS, Switch are kind of big deals. If adding in revisions: GBASP and DS Lite are the biggest deals there have been.

A lot less to lose. 3DS never performed on the level of something like DS, Wii, or Switch, and in 2016 was only pushing about a third the numbers Switch is now. Sure, there are other older instances where the hardware was announced a year+ in advance, but if they were still playing things that way we should have expected the announcement earlier this year.

I'm not ruling out 8GB either but when Switch came out 4GB was pretty popular on high range phones still. 8GB seems to be the most common configuration these days so that's the floor, but 12GB is also likely due to more premium phones using this configuration.

I think as Switch becomes more powerful as a pure gaming device there will be some divergence. Phone memory hasn't exploded since 2017 because most people don't need more than 8GB for their day to day so even flagships still use that configuration. But with gaming, the demands have increased. That said, phone memory is less important than the commodization of the chips. If 6GB chips are fairly affordable, then having 2 of them for 12GB will make sense but I suppose two 4GB could be cheaper and be an option too, but I would imagine Nintendo would target some level of future proofing. Having 4GB in the Switch instead of 3GB certainly benefits the console much more than any marginal cost savings at the time. I think 8 vs 12 or even 16 is probably in the same range of possibility. Developers will always push for more and 12 IMHO sits neatly in the middle of that range.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

It's time to upscale FSR 2 even further: Meet FSR 2.1!

One of our engineers shares the improvements we've made with AMD FidelityFX Super Resolution 2 to ghosting, temporal stability, and more.

gpuopen.com

It using more FP32 compute means it’s more expensive and probably this affects it’s speed. But I’m only basing on what I read, it only says that changes were made for it. I assume it’s only a small change and worth the trade-off. Ideal more for say, the Series and PS5 (if Sony allowed it). This probably isn’t really a good idea at all to execute on the Nintendo switch.


And before anyone make a connection of FSR1 and the switch and something about longer lifespan ask yourself this: why would Nintendo commison for a system that would use something like DLSS if they can just ignore DLSS and use spatial Upscaling? Clearly they do care about accuracy.

So… don’t make a silly connection.

Can we talk about how the console will smell once its warmed up. No? Is it just me who likes to smell that warm SOC Air blowing out of the top vent?

The new car, er, console smell is sooner than you think!

I don't have any special knowledge, but not sure why 8 is such a nonsense possibility. Switch came 3.5 years after the stationary consoles and had half the RAM. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and still having half the RAM would be a slight improvement. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and having 3/4 the RAM would be a huge improvement. If next Switch had gained RAM from its predecessor at the same rate as the stationary consoles, we might expect it to be around 7.2 GB (were such a thing possible).

how ray tracing can improve nintendo games

I mean have you seen the latest Pokemon trailer? Arceus knows that game needs some ray traced shadows

These two posts actually reminded me about an element that is being ignored, and that is that Ray tracing takes up its own a lot of space in terms of memory along with DLSS. These two are not zero or negligible amount of space used by the system, from what I’ve noticed they are a noticeable amount of VRAM that they use on PC titles. Now, I don’t expect Drake to operate at max settings and whatnot, but even if it’s used at a custom method for the system, RT and DLSS will certainly occupy space in the RAM.



RT has to store the BVH structure somewhere and the information for DLSS to work has to also be stored somewhere. Fortunately for Nintendo, they are using an nvidia based product therefore BVH Compaction helps to reduce the footprint of the BVH structure far better than AMD based products.


And let’s look at this other element: Textures

When you use DLSS, it’s encouraged to bring the MIP Bias up or closer to 0, which incurs a higher RAM usage. If you don’t, it looks worse and the image ends up looking like it has lower quality texture than the actual native image because it’s displaying the texture resolution for the internal res, not for the displayed supersampled image.


Now, I don’t know what or if Nintendo really cares about games that are displayed on say, a 1440p output having textures of an output suited for 720p despite the image appearing like 1440p to us because of DLSS.

This is just an example.

I assume all games internally will target 1080p at most anyway and they’ll defer to DLSS to render at above that mark for all first party and third party titles. So, they can have the textures only set for a 1080p quality image but have the output to a TV be for 1440p or 2160p.

If Zelda 2 will be on both console, it will sell more on the actual Switch due the installed base. It’s not WIU scenario. So why waiting for Switch 2?

same reason GoW, GT, HFW and the like were cross gen on PS4 and 5.

BOTW2 would sell the new system even if BOTW2 sells the most on the switch.

If we go by the “higher install base” logic, there would never be a switch 2 game.


Granted, I’m seeing that Mario in the fall of 2023 is the likeliest possibility. It’s been literally completely absent since Odyssey as a “new” game.

 

[Simba1]

marketing strategy, long awaited game being promoted on new hardware will make more noise for said hardware. (but might not happen if BOTW2 is shown in next direct)

I don't see why BOTW2 couldn't promote Drake even if BotW2 is shown in next Direct,
there is around at least 6 months between September and March (when earliest BotW 2 could be launched).

 

[Nintendojitsu]

I honestly don't expect BotW2 to showcase or even debut the new hardware. If the OLED was any indicator, I would place my faith in Metroid Prime 4 launching alongside the next Switch.

 

[arsen]

I don't see why BOTW2 couldn't promote Drake even if BotW2 is shown in next Direct,
there is around at least 6 months until September and March when earliest BotW 2 could be launched.

not saying they can't do it, I just think it's unlikely. (might or might not happen, but i'd bet on the latter)

 

[Simba1]

I honestly don't expect BotW2 to showcase or even debut the new hardware. If the OLED was any indicator, I would place my faith in Metroid Prime 4 launching alongside the next Switch.

OLED was simple revision, Drake is basically next gen Switch hardware, so much bigger thing any case.
Metroid Prime 4 cant really compare with Zelda BotW2 in popularity and attentione.

 

[Simba1]

not saying they can't do it, I just think it's unlikely. (might or might not happen, but i'd bet on the latter)

Yes, but what do you think that in that case its unlikely?

Because I dont see how if Zelda BotW 2 will be shown at next Direct could effect promotion of Zelda BotW 2 for Drake,
we talking about already announced game that's already shown and has even release window.

 

[Hosermess]

I honestly don't expect BotW2 to showcase or even debut the new hardware. If the OLED was any indicator, I would place my faith in Metroid Prime 4 launching alongside the next Switch.

What? Why would that be an indicator though? Cause that's what happened last time? I mean, that's the same reason why some people are so gung ho that it'll launch with BotW2...cause that's what happened last time - and the timing lines up so well. There is zero timing to line up for MP4. Zero anything beyond a Twitter banner that's now 7 months old. But it's your faith, put it wherever you'd like.

 

[arsen]

Yes, but what do you think that in that case its unlikely?

Because I dont see how if Zelda BotW 2 will be shown at next Direct could effect promotion of Zelda BotW 2 for Drake,
we talking about already announced game that's already shown and has even release window.

6 months marketing seems like a lot, I mean it might be necessary for such device but not 100% sure, so just keeping my expectations in check.

 

[Simba1]

6 months marketing seems like a lot, I mean it might be necessary for such device but not 100% sure, so just keeping my expectations in check.

Who saying they will market Zelda BotW2 for Drake 6 months?
They can show Zelda BotW2 in this Direct, and than have Drake reveal in January for instance and start marketing Zelda BotW 2 for Drake.
Point is that potentially showing of Zelda BotW 2 in next Direct, doesnt affect BotW2 marketing for Drake.

 

[Yavga]

Drake reveal in January sounds like a miracle, I doubt I can handle another dissapointment so I'll thread lightly with my enthousiasm. I just don't see it yet so soon after all these limited OLED models, especially after seeing what effect they seem to have on sales.

 

[Skittzo]

Drake reveal in January sounds like a miracle, I doubt I can handle another dissapointment so I'll thread lightly with my enthousiasm. I just don't see it yet so soon after all these limited OLED models, especially after seeing what effect they seem to have on sales.

Historically new consoles and revisions tend to happen imminently after limited edition versions of the previous models.

 

[ILikeFeet]

These two posts actually reminded me about an element that is being ignored, and that is that Ray tracing takes up its own a lot of space in terms of memory along with DLSS. These two are not zero or negligible amount of space used by the system, from what I’ve noticed they are a noticeable amount of VRAM that they use on PC titles. Now, I don’t expect Drake to operate at max settings and whatnot, but even if it’s used at a custom method for the system, RT and DLSS will certainly occupy space in the RAM.



RT has to store the BVH structure somewhere and the information for DLSS to work has to also be stored somewhere. Fortunately for Nintendo, they are using an nvidia based product therefore BVH Compaction helps to reduce the footprint of the BVH structure far better than AMD based products.


And let’s look at this other element: Textures

When you use DLSS, it’s encouraged to bring the MIP Bias up or closer to 0, which incurs a higher RAM usage. If you don’t, it looks worse and the image ends up looking like it has lower quality texture than the actual native image because it’s displaying the texture resolution for the internal res, not for the displayed supersampled image.


Now, I don’t know what or if Nintendo really cares about games that are displayed on say, a 1440p output having textures of an output suited for 720p despite the image appearing like 1440p to us because of DLSS.

This is just an example.

I assume all games internally will target 1080p at most anyway and they’ll defer to DLSS to render at above that mark for all first party and third party titles. So, they can have the textures only set for a 1080p quality image but have the output to a TV be for 1440p or 2160p.

in light of this, Intel talked about their RT solution and how they have a dedicated BVH cache to store the data structure. however, how much this helps is unknown as the specs of the A770 simply has more everything than its Nvidia competitor, the 3060. higher bandwidth, more cores, and higher power limits. any benefit in having a bvh cache is drowned out by everything else. that said, adding dedicated cache would be a waste of space in a space and power constrained environment like the switch. and it's not going to be too big per core

simply put, a dev that targets using RT on drake will just have to carve out a space for it from the start. the sooner bolt-on RT comes to an end, the sooner we'll see more optimizations for memory space and performance

 

[Blue Monty]

Historically new consoles and revisions tend to happen imminently after limited edition versions of the previous models.

It is more that Nintendo almost always releases new LE for their big releases (Splatoon,Pokemon,Smash,Zelda,Animal Crossing,etc) and because Nintendo is always releasing at least one or two big games per year that get such treatment new consoles/revisions have always to release close to old consoles LE

 

[Mr.Gamerson]

I wonder how many Switch NXT they will have available for launch with BOTW2? Heres to the big 5 Million.

10 Million would be nice as well and maybe even 20 million if Nintendo takes over the world by then.

 

[Link_enfant]

I can't wait for litterally anything to happen regarding Drake at this point, even leaks, hopefully Zelda in the next Direct (or its - very improbable - absence) should be somewhat of an indicator for the hardware (timing of reveal/release).
Nintendo please, it's been way too long for this dated Mariko hardware.

 

[Hosermess]

I can't wait for litterally anything to happen regarding Drake at this point, even leaks, hopefully Zelda in the next Direct (or its - very improbable - absence) should be somewhat of an indicator for the hardware (timing of reveal/release).
Nintendo please, it's been way too long for this dated Mariko hardware.

I can see them (before announcing the two ports) revealing just the full title (possibly with another short-ish trailer) while stating to "look forward to more details in Jan /Feb/Mar 2023" or something like that. Would give us a tiny morsel but nothing to infer anything more from (though we will still try). They're too smart and careful for that.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

in light of this, Intel talked about their RT solution and how they have a dedicated BVH cache to store the data structure. however, how much this helps is unknown as the specs of the A770 simply has more everything than its Nvidia competitor, the 3060. higher bandwidth, more cores, and higher power limits. any benefit in having a bvh cache is drowned out by everything else. that said, adding dedicated cache would be a waste of space in a space and power constrained environment like the switch. and it's not going to be too big per core

simply put, a dev that targets using RT on drake will just have to carve out a space for it from the start. the sooner bolt-on RT comes to an end, the sooner we'll see more optimizations for memory space and performance

I think that even with optimization done to it, for RT and reducing its footprint, the BVH structure would need to be changed in how it actually processes itself.


Though, maybe if devs opt to not go so far out and more closed in with RT in mind, it can really reduce footprint.


That said, the BVH cache could also be something like say… an SLC could facilitate a BVH cache I think?

Unknown, we will have to see how it goes.

Historically new consoles and revisions tend to happen imminently after limited edition versions of the previous models.

True, that’s why the NEW2DS XL was released like 2 months after the Switch.

 

[NineTailSage]

I'm not ruling out 8GB either but when Switch came out 4GB was pretty popular on high range phones still. 8GB seems to be the most common configuration these days so that's the floor, but 12GB is also likely due to more premium phones using this configuration.

I think as Switch becomes more powerful as a pure gaming device there will be some divergence. Phone memory hasn't exploded since 2017 because most people don't need more than 8GB for their day to day so even flagships still use that configuration. But with gaming, the demands have increased. That said, phone memory is less important than the commodization of the chips. If 6GB chips are fairly affordable, then having 2 of them for 12GB will make sense but I suppose two 4GB could be cheaper and be an option too, but I would imagine Nintendo would target some level of future proofing. Having 4GB in the Switch instead of 3GB certainly benefits the console much more than any marginal cost savings at the time. I think 8 vs 12 or even 16 is probably in the same range of possibility. Developers will always push for more and 12 IMHO sits neatly in the middle of that range.

Trying not to go down the RAM rabbit hole to much, but it is interesting to search on both Samsung and Micron's websites to see what lpddr5 64bit modules they currently have in production. Micron definitely has more selections in the 6-8GB variants, while on the Samsung front they seem to be moving full steam ahead on lpddr5x (as they have more options listed).

Updated Edit: Also the speed difference in LPDDR5=6,400Mbps (102.4GBps) vs LPDDR5x=8,533 Mbps (136.528 GBps)memory bandwidth on 128bit bus for 12GB is a pretty major difference. So here's hoping Nintendo goes for it with the much newer RAM...

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

They did this very thing to their most successful hardware of all time, too, as I pointed out.

And to which I responded. I think if they were still wanting to play things the way they did 10+ years ago for DS->3DS, we'd have seen it months ago, or at least they'd have announced they were making a big TGS presentation.

Also, 3DS revenue was the ONLY thing left to lose. FEH wasn’t out until Feb 2017, 3DS was their only viable revenue source, so saying they had ”less to lose” when it was the only thing left to lose is… a take.

Being 100% still doesn't mean its value is great. If Switch shat the bed, having had a slightly better late 2016 for 3DS wouldn't make much difference. They'd still be in a position of scrambling, but maybe with 1% more cash to do so with. This time Switch is pushing big numbers and they have less to fear about whether the next one will land well so aren't in a position of needing to sacrifice one for the other.

I wonder how many Switch NXT they will have available for launch with BOTW2? Heres to the big 5 Million.

10 Million would be nice as well and maybe even 20 million if Nintendo takes over the world by then.

That's uhhh big wishing, dude. I don't think any game machine (either new generation or revision) has ever hit 5 million their first quarter. PS4 and Switch OLED would have in their first 90 calendar days, though.

 

[RennanNT]

And to which I responded. I think if they were still wanting to play things the way they did 10+ years ago for DS->3DS, we'd have seen it months ago, or at least they'd have announced they were making a big TGS presentation.

Every single console had launched in a different situation than each other and their thought process will be different than 5 or 10 years ago, regardless if the decision ends similar or completely different. This has nothing to do with Terrel point though.

They're not saying that Nintendo will repeat their previous decision and announce it before the holidays.

They're just pointing out how flawed is the "there's no chance Nintendo would ruin their holiday sales by announcing it this year" argument. There are several precedents, some when they were in a better situation, some when they were in a worse situation, and in none of those their sales completely cratered like people arguing that assume will happen if they do it for the Nth time.

 

[Thraktor]

I don't have any special knowledge, but not sure why 8 is such a nonsense possibility. Switch came 3.5 years after the stationary consoles and had half the RAM. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and still having half the RAM would be a slight improvement. Next Switch coming only 2.5 years after the stationary consoles and having 3/4 the RAM would be a huge improvement. If next Switch had gained RAM from its predecessor at the same rate as the stationary consoles, we might expect it to be around 7.2 GB (were such a thing possible).

I'm not ruling out 8GB, but they might be limited by availability of parts. From the Nvidia leak it seems very likely that Drake has a 128 bit LPDDR5 interface. That means they have three options for parts, either a single 128 bit module, 2x 64 modules, or 4x 32 bit modules.

A 128 bit module seems very unlikely, as they're very rare to the point of being almost non-existent. I believe Apple have used 128 bit LPDDR3/4 modules in the past for a couple of their iPads, but I don't know of any current devices using 128 bit LPDDR5 modules. If they do exist, they're likely to be much more expensive than using the much more common 64 bit modules, so don't really make much sense.

Four 32 bit modules are also unlikely. They're unlikely to ever be available in sizes smaller than 4GB, which makes 16GB the floor, and they will take up precious board space, which won't be easy to make room for if the new Switch is a similar size to the current models.

Two 64 bit modules seems most likely, as it means the same dual-module board layout as the current Switch, and 64 bit LPDDR5 modules are plentiful, and will likely continue to be for some time.

So that means they're either looking for a pair of either 4GB, 6GB, or in theory 8GB 64 bit LPDDR5 modules for the new Switch. On the top end (although I don't think it's particularly likely), they can easily get hold of 8GB modules. Flagship Android phones typically use 64 bit memory interfaces, and have used LPDDR5 for the past year or two, with 8GB being reasonably common. The 6GB 64 bit modules are less common, but do exist in at least a couple of phones, namely the Pixel 6a and, according to rumours, the iPhone 14 Pro (although we'll have to wait for a teardown for confirmation on that one).

A pair of 4GB 64 bit LPDDR5 modules may be a bit harder to come by. They may not ever be used in phones, as high-end models use larger capacities, and mid-range and low-end phones typically use 32 bit memory interfaces, so although Qualcomm's new Snapdragon 6 Gen 1 (their first mid-range SoC with LPRRD5 support) has arrived, its 32 bit interface means the modules paired with it won't be much use to Nintendo.

The more likely use-cases for smaller capacity 64 bit modules would actually be laptops, as we're now starting to see LPDDR5 support in laptop SoCs, and as they typically use a 128 bit memory interface, a dual 64 bit module setup is common. I had a search for laptops using Intel's 12th gen "Alder Lake" processors, and although it's common to find higher-end models equipped with LPDDR5, they seem to start at 16GB of RAM, with lower-end 8GB models sticking with cheaper DDR4 memory. I didn't do an exhaustive search, though, so maybe there is an Alder Lake laptop model out there equipped with 8GB of LPDDR5, and therefore two 4GB modules.

I did actually manage to find one device shipping with 4GB 64 bit LPDDR5 modules, and that's the M2 MacBook Air, which in it's 8GB configuration uses a pair of SK Hynix 4GB chips. However, the caveat here is that Apple embed the RAM within the M2's packaging, so they're not using standard off-the-shelf components. It's possible that SK Hynix could also offer this in a standard BGA package that Nintendo could use, but I'm not sure how custom they are (Apple claim lower latency for their RAM packaged on the M2, so there may be non-standard timings or other customisations involved).

Part of the issue as well is about how many suppliers there are, and how long the parts will be available. When a phone manufacturer is designing a new model, they only have to be concerned about parts availability for a year ahead, but for Nintendo they may still be manufacturing this new Switch until the end of the decade. This means they don't want to be in a situation where they can no longer obtain the parts they need, or be stuck with only a single supplier who charges extortionate amounts. RAM is particularly sensitive on this point, because they have very little flexibility to work around the parts no longer being available, without redesigning the SoC at potentially great expense. I suspect this is part of the reason they switched to LPDDR4X with Mariko, as long-term availability of LPDDR4 modules didn't look good, whereas LPDDR4X will still be around for a while longer.

 

[uncleoptimus]

Can we talk about how the console will smell once its warmed up. No? Is it just me who likes to smell that warm SOC Air blowing out of the top vent?

Is it too soon to discuss what delightful cartridge flavors Nintendo intends to introduce with the Switch 2?
I would like to see them really branch out from their choice of "Garbage Ass" flavor with the current Switch cartridges.

In fact, maybe the can turn "cartridge flavors" into another type of pre-order bonus!

 

[John Omaha]

Part of the issue as well is about how many suppliers there are, and how long the parts will be available. When a phone manufacturer is designing a new model, they only have to be concerned about parts availability for a year ahead, but for Nintendo they may still be manufacturing this new Switch until the end of the decade. This means they don't want to be in a situation where they can no longer obtain the parts they need, or be stuck with only a single supplier who charges extortionate amounts.

This is a very good point. The crappier 'It's Nintendo' type solutions may actually become more expensive to source in the long run.