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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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LiC said:
I don't think Nintendo communities were aware of shipping data websites as a possible source of information until that misinformed tweet from Connor, of all people, which you posted here and started the whole thing. Based on what we can see now, there likely would have been numerous ways to see things ahead of announcement if we had known what to look for.
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In our, your and everyone's defence, that applies to a lot of leaks. You need to know where to look in order to understand what to look for and vis versa. That's why leakers have set methods in gathering information and confirming stuff. Now that we have that shipping information, it means we have another source to look at and make predictions and speculation.

These shipping leaks are some of the most valuable contributions to hardware speculation since the Nvidia leak, and I do not mean that lightly.
 
ILikeFeet said:
it's like you were born yesterday with console launches
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The 360 (Kameo, Perfect Dark Zero, PGR3), PS5 (Miles Morales, AstroBot, and Demon’s Souls), Wii (Twilight Princess, Wii Sports, Excite Truck) had three first party games at launch, but two is more common and 0 happens sometimes. Four would be pretty extreme if one of these games is a big EPD title.

Doing four at the same time instead of spreading them out over the first few months would be pretty weird.
 
LiC said:
I don't think Nintendo communities were aware of shipping data websites as a possible source of information until that misinformed tweet from Connor, of all people, which you posted here when you got the whole thing started.
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Kinda funny to think that a fake leaker (iirc someone from here fed them false info which they parroted so I'm not saying Connor is fabricating everything maliciously) helped lead to a legitimate source of information.
 
I just placed a sidebet with a guy on wall street. $1000 bet. Switch 2 launches May 2024. If I win, Payout is 15:1 ($15k). If it launches any other month, I lose the $1000.

I'm practically convinced between the chatter with other investors (particularly one of them) that deal with tech and what has been found recently.
 
IronTed said:
Kinda funny to think that a fake leaker (iirc someone from here fed them false info which they parroted so I'm not saying Connor is fabricating everything maliciously) helped lead to a legitimate source of information.
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"Life is full of ironies and absurdities."
- Adam West
 
Shareholder Chad said:
I just placed a sidebet with a guy on wall street. $1000 bet. Switch 2 launches May 2024. If I win, Payout is 15:1 ($15k). If it launches any other month, I lose the $1000.

I'm practically convinced between the chatter with other investors (particularly one of them) that deal with tech and what has been found recently.
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This decision making feels like fuck you money. I wish I had fuck you money.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
I just placed a sidebet with a guy on wall street. $1000 bet. Switch 2 launches May 2024. If I win, Payout is 15:1 ($15k). If it launches any other month, I lose the $1000.

I'm practically convinced between the chatter with other investors (particularly one of them) that deal with tech and what has been found recently.
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What could possibly convince you that it’s May? Genuinely curious.

To me it feels like the most logical thing would be a reveal in March or April and a launch in the fall. That way 3rd party devs can show off their games coming out for it in the June Direct/E3/Summer Games Fest circuit, with a release of the console in September/October
 
Shareholder Chad said:
I just placed a sidebet with a guy on wall street. $1000 bet. Switch 2 launches May 2024. If I win, Payout is 15:1 ($15k). If it launches any other month, I lose the $1000.

I'm practically convinced between the chatter with other investors (particularly one of them) that deal with tech and what has been found recently.
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That is quite the bet - I wouldn't be throwing that money around, but I agree with the prediction. #TeamMay2024 Godspeed.
 
0
my percent chances of confidence of each month for release

January - 0%
February - 5%
March- 30%
April - 40%
May - 45%
June - 50%
July - 50%
August - 65%
September - 75%
October - 80%
November - 90%
December - 40% ( Dont see much December launches)
 
LiC said:
I don't think Nintendo communities were aware of shipping data websites as a possible source of information until that misinformed tweet from Connor, of all people, which you posted here when you got the whole thing started. Based on what we can see now, there likely would have been numerous ways to see things ahead of announcement in years past if we had known what to look for.
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Shout out to the writer of this article you linked to when the shipping info was first discovered here:

LiC said:
I'm going to be linking to a very bad article here, from which absolutely no information should be drawn (seriously, don't even read it) just to highlight that somebody seems to have Googled and found this same description as of September 2022 at least
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This person was sitting so close to a treasure trove of exclusive information last year. So close, yet so far.
 
Concernt said:
Every day, March seems more likely... Though I could see April.
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March-May seem to be the most likely range of months, at least imo. If a reveal happens this month, it'll most likely be in those three. I'm happy with that though, because it essentially means "Switch 2 information soon".
 
carbvan said:
Nintendo's booth at an event called Paris Games Week. I didn't even know this event existed.
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Why would they even be there except to show already released games and checks notes... Warioware and Super Mario RPG?

Weird-ass company sometimes.
 
lemonfresh said:
what are we looking at
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A photo.

Seriously though, based on googling, I think it's Paris Games Week event. And Nintendo has that space reserved.. Private demos like Gamescom?

giphy.gif
 
darthdiablo said:
A photo.

Seriously though, based on googling, I think it's Paris Games Week event. And Nintendo has that space reserved.. Private demos like Gamescom?
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I hate to be that guy, but there's literally a chance it's just Nintendo showing off already-released games to the public plus a couple of "already announced" games.

That being said, this booth could be showing off stuff to Ubisoft, a key third-party for Nintendo. Maybe? Idk, i'm drawing at straws here.
 
darthdiablo said:
A photo.

Seriously though, based on googling, I think it's Paris Games Week event. And Nintendo has that space reserved.. Private demos like Gamescom?
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Would they want to do another demo? Gamescom was just 5 hours away it looks like. I'm sure all the people they'd want to show the demo to could've been to Gamescom, the distance doesn't seem like an issue.
 
carbvan said:
Would they want to do another demo? Gamescom was just 5 hours away it looks like. I'm sure all the people they'd want to show the demo to could've been to Gamescom, the distance doesn't seem like an issue.
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Gamescom was 5 hours away? Okay, it was a bad guess. As @SoldierDelta said, it could just be public demo, but that setup looks a bit closed off for that kind of thing. IDK.
 
SoldierDelta said:
I hate to be that guy, but there's literally a chance it's just Nintendo showing off already-released games to the public plus a couple of "already announced" games.

That being said, this booth could be showing off stuff to Ubisoft, a key third-party for Nintendo. Maybe? Idk, i'm drawing at straws here.
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Do we know if they had demos shown off at TGS? Did anything come of that?
 
darthdiablo said:
Gamescom was 5 hours away? Okay, it was a bad guess. As @SoldierDelta said, it could just be public demo, but that setup looks a bit closed off for that kind of thing. IDK.
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Schrodinger's Nintendo Booth. It both contains invaluable interest to us and is simultaneously completely worthless at the same time until someone actually enters the place and checks it out.

I've already explained it, but there's still a fair chunk of third parties in Europe (namely France) that would benefit from seeing confidential information ahead of time. There is good reason for it to have the Matrix and BotW 60FPS 4K demo at the booth, but we literally don't know until someone confirms it.
 
Paraspikey said:
Do we know if they had demos shown off at TGS? Did anything come of that?
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If they did, they were most likely the exact same ones as those at Gamescom. Which will probably be the exact same ones shown at Paris Games Week (and any other gaming expos Nintendo will be attending for the next month or two).
 
justanotherperson said:
I wonder if we could see this in the near future, since both Nintendo and Canon are Japan-based, they could transition the T239 to their node with a revision in 3-5 years and: keep the price and get better profit margins or cut down the price and keep the same profit.
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I imagine Nintendo and Nvidia probably have to redesign T239 with nanoimprint lithography in mind in that scenario, which costs more money and time, which probably reduces the amount of costs savings Nintendo and Nvidia could have from transitioning from EUV lithography to nanoimprint lithography.
 
A live stream video from Nintendo's event at Paris Games Week last year reveals that their events are normally fairly large, so the apparent size of the area of this year's event isn't any different from the scale of what they normally do:



Edit: Just to note, as pointed out in this post, the enclosed area in the picture in this tweet is what might be different from previous Nintendo events at Paris Games Week, not just the entire exhibition space as a whole (and keeping in mind that we're not seriously expecting any new information to come from here for now).
 
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carbonaxiom said:
A live stream video from Nintendo's event at Paris Games Week last year reveals that their events are normally fairly large, so the apparent size of the area of this year's event isn't any different from the scale of what they normally do:

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To be clear, I'm not actually saying there's something there, I just wanted to make a joke about the Nvidia raid. But isn't that stream from open floorspace, not an enclosed business area?
 
LiC said:
To be clear, I'm not actually saying there's something there, I just wanted to make a joke about the Nvidia raid. But isn't that stream from open floorspace, not an enclosed business area?
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I'm assuming the picture from the tweet is some kind of open floor space that is just temporarily enclosed while they build the stage and all the areas with demo consoles. At least, I assumed that mostly based on the height of the ceiling there in the picture, which seems more like a large floor space than office space to me. I could definitely be wrong about that.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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carbonaxiom said:
I'm assuming the picture from the tweet is some kind of open floor space that is just temporarily enclosed while they build the stage and all the areas with demo consoles. At least, I assumed that mostly based on the height of the ceiling there in the picture, which seems more like floor space than office space to me. I could definitely be wrong about that.
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I think they'd be adjacent to each other. The whole square footage with the raised banners/borders you can see in the photo is their general floorspace, but the point of the eyes tweet (and my non-serious posting about it here) is that they have the small space where they could do business meetings or presentations a la Gamescom (hence the infamous curtains of secrecy). Again, not that there's likely to be anything there, and even if there was something, it would probably be the same demo we already heard about.
 
LiC said:
I think they'd be adjacent to each other. The whole square footage with the raised banners/borders you can see in the photo is their general floorspace, but the point of the eyes tweet (and my non-serious posting about it here) is that they have the small space where they could do business meetings or presentations a la Gamescom. Again, not that there's likely to be anything there, and even if there was something, it would probably be the same demo we already heard about.
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That makes sense. I missed the context the tweet was being made in.
 
I would like to point out that the UE5 demo was for such a small list of people that the VGS article was considered actively irresponsible by folks who were aware, as it was dangerously close to source burning.

There are many dev teams in Europe who haven’t seen the details that were released at Gamescom, and would benefit from seeing it. Not to day it’s there, just that it’s not unlikely.

What is unlikely is that there is anything new to be seen. Nintendo is unlikely to have added anything substantial in just a few months. Outside chance that some dev feels emboldened to slip some extra details in, considering it’s already semi public
 
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