In any case, I'm looking for evidence of a 2H '24 launch, not 1H launch, which I believe to be in the bag. Just trying to figure out why anyone would believe otherwise given I have yet to hear a single coherent explanation, let alone concrete facts supporting a holiday quarter next year premise so many irrationally cling to
Irrationally? Why is the burden on folks who believe in an H2 launch, not on H1?
The thing about evidence is it doesn't weigh on one side or the other. Evidence is a
fact the question is, what is the most plausible explanation of those facts, and how much more plausible is that explanation than any others. I think the H1 evidence is the most plausible story, but that's a low bar. It's hardly in the bag.
Shipping records include these tantalizing things dated the 15th of August...
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Which sure doesn't sound like production has started in August, it sounds like assembly lines are being
built. So we know that we're well behind the Switch production schedule, where motherboards have assembly dates as early as July, and we know devkit batches were sent out by the assemblers prior to mass production on retail.
We also know that the Switch production and marketing schedule was going at breakneck pace, with Nintendo delaying production till the last possible minute, because the OS wasn't done, and early production units were flashed with a Beta firmware, barely able to boot games.
Things we don't know: What the Switch production schedule would look like if it wasn't a do-or-die project for the company performed at breakneck pace. What the shipping record data would look like if we were watching the Switch production in real time. How Nintendo's strategy for this
still unannounced product might differ from the product before it.
Without more date from other launches, or other leaks, it's not clear to me how much of a gap exists between these suggestive records and actual mass production. It is plausible to me that Nintendo, with a still successful product on the market, sees no reason to repeat the Switch's extremely risky rapid production cycle. With already a month between when Switch began production (mid-July) and when these shipments happened (mid-August), it doesn't take much extra wiggle room to get from H1 to early H2.
And while I don't find a Holiday launch particularly plausible, I'll remind folks that Nintendo had prototype
Switch builds in early 2016. I'm not saying H2 is it, just saying, there isn't anything definitive yet.