• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

I wonder if we could see this in the near future, since both Nintendo and Canon are Japan-based, they could transition the T239 to their node with a revision in 3-5 years and: keep the price and get better profit margins or cut down the price and keep the same profit.
It’s not that simple, in fact they could commission for that and it would be more expensive than designing a whole new console from scratch.

Nvidia has no history with Canon like that
 
In any case, I'm looking for evidence of a 2H '24 launch, not 1H launch, which I believe to be in the bag. Just trying to figure out why anyone would believe otherwise given I have yet to hear a single coherent explanation, let alone concrete facts supporting a holiday quarter next year premise so many irrationally cling to
Irrationally? Why is the burden on folks who believe in an H2 launch, not on H1?

The thing about evidence is it doesn't weigh on one side or the other. Evidence is a fact the question is, what is the most plausible explanation of those facts, and how much more plausible is that explanation than any others. I think the H1 evidence is the most plausible story, but that's a low bar. It's hardly in the bag.

Shipping records include these tantalizing things dated the 15th of August...

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.


Which sure doesn't sound like production has started in August, it sounds like assembly lines are being built. So we know that we're well behind the Switch production schedule, where motherboards have assembly dates as early as July, and we know devkit batches were sent out by the assemblers prior to mass production on retail.

We also know that the Switch production and marketing schedule was going at breakneck pace, with Nintendo delaying production till the last possible minute, because the OS wasn't done, and early production units were flashed with a Beta firmware, barely able to boot games.

Things we don't know: What the Switch production schedule would look like if it wasn't a do-or-die project for the company performed at breakneck pace. What the shipping record data would look like if we were watching the Switch production in real time. How Nintendo's strategy for this still unannounced product might differ from the product before it.

Without more date from other launches, or other leaks, it's not clear to me how much of a gap exists between these suggestive records and actual mass production. It is plausible to me that Nintendo, with a still successful product on the market, sees no reason to repeat the Switch's extremely risky rapid production cycle. With already a month between when Switch began production (mid-July) and when these shipments happened (mid-August), it doesn't take much extra wiggle room to get from H1 to early H2.

And while I don't find a Holiday launch particularly plausible, I'll remind folks that Nintendo had prototype Switch builds in early 2016. I'm not saying H2 is it, just saying, there isn't anything definitive yet.
 
If it's March, how many other games are they putting in March along with Splatoon 3 Roguelite and Princess Peach Showtime and like 5-6 third-party significant third-party games and 10 other more minor third-party games?

I'm saying the release schedule makes no sense for a March release in particular.
There's plenty of room for the traditional pair of launch day titles if that's where they're aiming for.
 
Oops. I misread the Wii U announcement to launch time frame. It was about 17 months, not 5! Eeesh!

If there's anything coming from this November shareholder update I'm thinking it'll be confirmation that the next console will launch in 2024. But I don't think it'll be an unveiling/announcement.
 
Does mass production mean the same thing as final assembly or is it just the beginning of the manufacturing process?
Uhhh... technically no?
Final assembly is essentially turning all of the components you have into the end product. Final assembly is more a "part" of mass production rather than a stage in product development. Mass production can encompass stuff like component making and final assembly.

At least that's what I understood from my GCSE in Design Technology. My teacher was dreadful, so please correct me if I missed something.
 
There's plenty of room for the traditional pair of launch day titles if that's where they're aiming for.

So they're going to launch

Splatoon 3 DLC
Princess Peach Showtime
3D Mario or Mario Kart
Some big casual game

Along with like 15 third-party games

On the same day?

Or within a couple weeks of each other at most (though it wouldn't make sense to launch the first two right after or right before launch)?

Why would they do that.
 
It would be very poetic if we reaced page 2000 at the exact same time as the super switch announcement lmao. C'mon universe i know you wanna do it!
 
Which sure doesn't sound like production has started in August, it sounds like assembly lines are being built. So we know that we're well behind the Switch production schedule, where motherboards have assembly dates as early as July, and we know devkit batches were sent out by the assemblers prior to mass production on retail.
I don't think this is accurate. Switch MP (actual mass production) did not start in July, and if we're just talking about some boards being assembled in July, then that definitely already happened for the new hardware too, because Nintendo has been widely distributing devkits since then per reporting (and likely earlier from what we know). And the last of the new "X5"-type prototype shipments we can see stopped in May, so how do we know they didn't come up with the final boards around that time? Not to mention that what's going on at specifically the Vietnamese factory we have insight into is not likely the full picture, since prototype production is done in Japan and the bulk of MP is done in Taiwan, with Vietnam likely the last to be brought up to speed.

Nobody should take any of these shipments as confirmation of anything happening. I think we have a good understanding of what the shipments are, and what they could mean, but none of us have a shred of expertise to draw a bright line and say that if X shipments are happening then full production is going to be Y months behind. And no one is claiming that (among the ones who are actually finding and disseminating the info, anyway). But they definitely don't stack up against the Switch timeline in a way that suggests it can't be happening soon, either, like you're saying here.
 
So they're going to launch

Splatoon 3 DLC
Princess Peach Showtime
3D Mario or Mario Kart
Some big casual game

Along with like 15 third-party games

On the same day?

Or within a couple weeks of each other at most (though it wouldn't make sense to launch the first two right after or right before launch)?

Why would they do that.
Console launches are generally known for a ton of games releasing on the same day, yes.

Probably not specifically the Peach Showcase or Side Order launch days, though. Those could have good synergy with the console launch, being prime candidates for Switch 1 content which runs natively on the new hardware that would benefit from the launch window bump, but there's typically only two first part games on the launch day itself, along with a slew of third party releases.
 
Console launches are generally known for a ton of games releasing on the same day, yes.

Probably not specifically the Peach Showcase or Side Order launch days, though. Those could have good synergy with the console launch, being prime candidates for Switch 1 content which runs natively on the new hardware that would benefit from the launch window bump, but there's typically only two first part games on the launch day itself, along with a slew of third party releases.
Switch launch lineup. IDK why ItWasMeantToBe19 thinks Switch 2 launching with several titles should be considered unusual.
 
We should remember that if this system comes with the BC, Nintendo already have an entire library of games available for the console, meaning that a little wave of new ports / new projects would be enough for the time being after its launch
 
I don't believe this has anything to do with the game code either, as IIRC this thing actually started with Insomniac accidentally having a 120hz option and users finding it improved the latency (they patched it out and proceeded to deliver an official version that also included the 40fps mode).
Ahhhh, okay. I suspect this is because just in time frame delivery is more flexible inside a 120hz container. I wonder what a frame pacing graph would say.

I don't think this is accurate. Switch MP (actual mass production) did not start in July, and if we're just talking about some boards being assembled in July, then that definitely already happened for the new hardware too, because Nintendo has been widely distributing devkits since then per reporting (and likely earlier from what we know). And the last of the "X5"-type prototype shipments we can see stopped in May, so how do we know they didn't come up with the final boards around that time? Not to mention that what's going on at specifically the Vietnamese factory we have insight into is not likely the full picture, since prototype production is done in Japan and the bulk of MP is done in Taiwan, with Vietnam likely the last to be brought up to speed.

Nobody should take any of these shipments as confirmation of anything happening. I think we have a good understanding of what the shipments are, and what they could mean, but none of us have a shred of expertise to draw a bright line and say that if X shipments are happening then full production is going to be Y months behind. And no one is claiming that (among the ones who are actually finding and disseminating the info, anyway). But they definitely don't stack up against the Switch timeline in a way that suggests it can't be happening soon, either, like you're saying here.
To be clear, I was simply trying to offer an alternate interpretation of the data, not say anything definitive - I tend to favor H1 myself. But I take your point about board manufacturing versus actually mass assembly.
 
Switch launch lineup. IDK why ItWasMeantToBe19 thinks Switch 2 launching with several titles should be considered unusual.
Worth reminding folks how bad the Switch launch could've been if it wasn't for Breath of the Wild, especially in terms of third party releases. That one game basically held up the first month on Switch. I think third-parties will help whatever the Switch 2 launch will have, but it's fair to expect one "killer-app" at launch, that being the fancy, brand-spanking-new Mario game.
 
We should remember that if this system comes with the BC, Nintendo already have an entire library of games available for the console, meaning that a little wave of new ports / new projects would be enough for the time being after its launch
Hey Necro, do you know anything about ‘Z R 2023’? Any potential links to the successor?
 
Hey Necro, do you know anything about ‘Z R 2023’? Any potential links to the successor?
A factory in Vietnam has ordered 2023 units of "ZR Button Plastic Encasement for Human Interface Device", confirming the production of Joy-Con is ongoing /j
 
Ahhhh, okay. I suspect this is because just in time frame delivery is more flexible inside a 120hz container. I wonder what a frame pacing graph would say.


To be clear, I was simply trying to offer an alternate interpretation of the data, not say anything definitive - I tend to favor H1 myself. But I take your point about board manufacturing versus actually mass assembly.
I guess I would just phrase it as, we can't draw any conclusions from this data. My biased perspective says there's evidence of nearness in there, but I think that the worst case for an objective look is just indeterminate, not behind schedule wrt the Switch's March launch. Because I think that this is what it would look like if MP were starting very soon, but I also think this is what it would look like if MP were a few months off (which is pretty much the whole range it could be, and the difference between an H1 and H2 launch).

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
does any of this leaks/reports hint Switch sucessor will have suport for SD Cards?if they have, will they allow ourself to migrate our games/media to Nintendo next hardware?
You can’t even do that between Switches, you need to use the profile transfer. I imagine there will be one if there’s backward compatibility though.
 
If it's March, how many other games are they putting in March along with Splatoon 3 Roguelite and Princess Peach Showtime and like 5-6 third-party significant third-party games and 10 other more minor third-party games?

I'm saying the release schedule makes no sense for a March release in particular.

You can’t even do that between Switches, you need to use the profile transfer. I imagine there will be one if there’s backward compatibility though.
that why i advicate for the Nintendo acount to be fully backward compatibly with Switch, using the console memory itself or SD cards for the games, the less steps you can to transfer/migrate media/games to Nintendo next hardware, better for everyone
 
0
Just got a tweet from Nintendo Australia about more holiday OLED bundles, I’d guess one of these is the mystery HEG codename we weren’t sure of yet:

Worth noting that the Animal Crossing bundles were sold exclusively at Walmart and Target in America (possibly in other stores in other countries) since October 6th. They are just releasing them everywhere as of November 3rd (in America at least).

Edit: proof

Target sold pink animal crossing switch
https://www.target.com/p/nintendo-s...ndle-isabelle-39-s-aloha-edition/-/A-89613017

Walmart sold blue animal crossing switch
https://www.walmart.com/ip/Nintendo...Bundle-Full-Game-Download-Included/3162541096
 
Last edited:
Worth noting that the Animal Crossing bundles were sold exclusively at Walmart and Target in America (possibly in other stores in other countries) since October 6th. They are just releasing them everywhere as of November 11th.
The Mario Kart OLED bundle (upper left) is new right? (not sold anywhere before this as far as I know. I don’t really follow bundle news)
 
I wonder if we could see this in the near future, since both Nintendo and Canon are Japan-based, they could transition the T239 to their node with a revision in 3-5 years and: keep the price and get better profit margins or cut down the price and keep the same profit.
Also keep in mind that Canon's efforts are happening side by side with the launch of the Rapidus Corporation, which is a semiconductor manufacturer launched by a consortium of multiple Japanese companies, including Sony, in an attempt to establish a leading-edge foundry in Japan as soon as possible. They've already started construction on a 2nm fab that is tentatively scheduled to start pilot production in 2025 (and mass production in 2027), and ASML has confirmed that they will be supporting the company with their EUV lithography equipment.

Who knows how well Rapidus will keep up with this very agressive timeline, but along with Intel Foundry looking increasingly like it might succeed and Samsung's most advanced nodes looking more performant than expected, the conversations about semiconductor fabs and nodes will likely look very different in a few years, especially by the time everyone starts discussing the Switch 3.
 
0
That was the origin of rumor yes. The photo in the tweet was not of OLED bundle tho. People pointed that out and the tweeter has to clarify it’s just a representative photo.

And now the rumor/tweet has been confirmed!
Yep! Afaik, this would usually be the time of year where Nintendo would announce their Black Friday Bundles, so this announcement (unlike the September MK8D Switch Bundle) is very normal.
 
So they're going to launch

Splatoon 3 DLC
Princess Peach Showtime
3D Mario or Mario Kart
Some big casual game

Along with like 15 third-party games

On the same day?

Or within a couple weeks of each other at most (though it wouldn't make sense to launch the first two right after or right before launch)?

Why would they do that.
it's like you were born yesterday with console launches
 
Yep! Afaik, this would usually be the time of year where Nintendo would announce their Black Friday Bundles, so this announcement (unlike the September MK8D Switch Bundle) is very normal.
Yes - not unusual in itself.

The reason why I find it a bit interesting is this is the first time I've found something in customs data website (HEG-S-KACLA), before it was actually announced. The shipment occurred in end of August nearly full 2 months before it was unveiled. I don't think there has ever been any other examples of Nintendo retail products showing up in customs data website before they were announced but I could be mistaken.
 
So they're going to launch

Splatoon 3 DLC
Princess Peach Showtime
3D Mario or Mario Kart
Some big casual game

Along with like 15 third-party games

On the same day?

Or within a couple weeks of each other at most (though it wouldn't make sense to launch the first two right after or right before launch)?

Why would they do that.
Not that I'm buying into the idea of a March launch, that doesn't look particularly different from what the Switch launched with. That doesn't even account for the fact that there was a bunch of 3DS games releasing in around that same launch window period. I think regardless of when it launches, it's going to have a pretty hefty software presence.
 
0
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
were-back-its-over.gif
 
Yes - not unusual in itself.

The reason why I find it a bit interesting is this is the first time I've found something in customs data website (HEG-S-KACLA), before it was actually announced. The shipment occurred in end of August nearly full 2 months before it was unveiled. I don't think there has ever been any other examples of Nintendo retail products showing up in customs data website before they were announced but I could be mistaken.
Well, it's at least the first time that we've spotted it in recent memory, and that's good enough for me.

Presuming that the shipping data was 100% on the money with billbil's leak and this OLED reveal, it means we've got an additional mark on the tally of "Oh god we're going to get mass-production this month".

The "We're Back" crowd is more back than ever.
 
Yes - not unusual in itself.

The reason why I find it a bit interesting is this is the first time I've found something in customs data website (HEG-S-KACLA), before it was actually announced. The shipment occurred in end of August nearly full 2 months before it was unveiled. I don't think there has ever been any other examples of Nintendo retail products showing up in customs data website before they were announced but I could be mistaken.
I don't think Nintendo communities were aware of shipping data websites as a possible source of information until that misinformed tweet from Connor, of all people, which you posted here when you got the whole thing started. Based on what we can see now, there likely would have been numerous ways to see things ahead of announcement in years past if we had known what to look for.
 
I don't think Nintendo communities were aware of shipping data websites as a possible source of information until that misinformed tweet from Connor, of all people, which you posted here when you got the whole thing started. Based on what we can see now, there likely would have been numerous ways to see things ahead of announcement in years past if we had known what to look for.
That's the thing though - I keep looking for other examples of past shipments of retail stuff (not parts or prototypes) before they were actually announced, to see if we could use customs data website for this purpose.

KACLA was the only example I could find. Nothing else. I even looked thru games, amiibos, etc. Feels like customs data website wouldn't be a reliable place to find info like this (other than parts/prototypes)

Edit: But I'm probably not as thorough as you & LuigiBlood has been. Y'all found everything else at least :)
 
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited by a moderator:


Back
Top Bottom