-
Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
-
Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!
StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
D36
#WOHOYHASAWAKENED
- Pronouns
- He/Him
HankyPanky
Bob-omb
- Pronouns
- Funcle
wait for the Funcles to arrive later in the year.
i could see it launching in May/June to start the new FY but probably not March. gives them more time to get the big launch title ready (Mario/DK)
numerous rumblings maybe an official teaser? but no major leaks, announcement & blowout early next year as mass production gets going and the floodgates open.
MP4 surely has to be cross-gen? so we won't see it until the new system gets revealed. would make little sense to show it on the OG Switch first if so.
i could see it launching in May/June to start the new FY but probably not March. gives them more time to get the big launch title ready (Mario/DK)
numerous rumblings maybe an official teaser? but no major leaks, announcement & blowout early next year as mass production gets going and the floodgates open.
MP4 surely has to be cross-gen? so we won't see it until the new system gets revealed. would make little sense to show it on the OG Switch first if so.
P4bl0
A New H1ope
Good news: Nintendo booked the Tokyo Big Sight (the same venue as the 2017 January Presentation) for a Nintendo Live in January 2024 (20-21).
Which makes Friday January 19, 2024 as the Switch 2 Presentation date, the most likely.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
- Pronouns
- he/him
nah
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yeah no, they already said there will be no announcements made there. I'm pretty sure.
P4bl0
A New H1ope
Care to argue ?
KeijiKG
Moblin
Coincidence until a reveal is proven to confirmed (a word that that internet uses too frivolously outside its intended meaning, whether for lulz or not)
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
IQ improves.
One way to think of it, is there is an Infinitely High Resolution version of the scene, and when you draw a frame, you lay a 1080p grid over that scene, and for each pixel you take a sample of what color you can see through the grid.
But there will always be details that are smaller than a pixel, and sometimes your sampling will catch it, causing that small detail to appear as a whole pixel. There will always be details that are larger than a pixel, but cross over pixel edges, so your sampling misses it in some or all pixels, causing it to vanish. This causes aliasing artifacts, or fizzling in fine detail, like hair or foliage.
When you run higher than the resolution of your screen, you are effectively sampling each pixel multiple times, and then using interpolation to combine those extra samples into final decisions about what color a pixel is. That's essentially what MSAA does, except MSAA does tricks so it doesn't have to actually render all those extra pixels to work. By running at higher res you're getting, like, 2x MSAA+
P4bl0
A New H1ope
They explicitly said that at the Nintendo Live "there will be no new announcements". (January 20th-21st 2024)
But they can still do the Presentation a day or two before the Nintendo Live, like they did in January 2017, and guess what it was a Friday also
- Pronouns
- He/Him
This happens yearly iirc (Nintendo Live, that is), and it isn't indicative of any large announcements. I doubt there would be any real difference there.
P4bl0
A New H1ope
I didn't say AT the Nintendo Live, I said one day before, in the same venue but not for the public.
was there any switch content at Nintendo Live back then?
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I don't think there's any logic in seeing "hey that's that one venue they used that one time" and thinking they'll do the same thing there again when they've already said they won't.
P4bl0
A New H1ope
Yes it was a full on Switch Hands On Experience event open to the public the whole week-end following the presentation, it wasn't called Nintendo Live at this time but the Switch Experience
carbvan
Paratroopa
- Pronouns
- he/him
did nintendo live even exist back then? i thought it started in 2019.
P4bl0
A New H1ope
The logic there is that you need to book a huge space to make a presentation, the Tokyo Big Sight.
Just like they did a press presentation + a public opening the following week-end in 2017, they might do the same in 2024 to A Save Costs and B have the Switch 1 and 2 available at the next Nintendo Live.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I wonder if we know how long their booking is. Because if it's longer than Nintendo Live by two or more days, that could sure be interesting.
Instro
Like Like
Yeah I'm not thinking about the initial reveal, more like the bigger January style event where you would have a large 3rd party presence. The initial reveal would presumably be like the October Switch reveal, a very limited first party showing primarily to briefly show the new device.
So something the initial teaser later this year, or maybe January, then a bigger event in March, with a release between May and September.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
They also booked big locations (the Tokyo Big Sight actually) for all the other "Nintendo Live" Events. Why should they suddenly make a big announcement show on a event that the clearly market als community fan convention for 4 years?
P4bl0
A New H1ope
Someone gotta call Tokyo Big Sight and ask them if the venue is available the Friday before for an event, I can actually ask my Japanese girlfriend to do it. Shall we ?
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yeah this is currently where I'm at. Though the launch would probably be closer to May than September if the conference is March. They want a really quick turnaround this time.
antonz
Cappy
- Pronouns
- He
March could be the announcement period, but I find that kind of info would be less likely to be shared at this sort of dev showing. If Nintendo were going to share a timeline I would think it woul be giving a rough estimate of when the device would release in order to get potential development partners in the loop on when and how long theyd potentially have to try and get software out for the launch window
Goodtwin
Like Like
Do you think a teaser trailer for SNG would have much effect on Switch sales for the remainder of the year? Nintendo's Q1 sales for Switch were up year over year, and it wouldn't shock me if Q2 is up as well. Nintendo could get through the first two quarters having sold over 7 million units out of the forecasted 15 million for the year. The holiday sales will still remain strong thanks to holiday bundles and games like Super Mario Bros Wonder and Super Mario RPG. So a teaser trailer in October that ends with "Coming 2024" wouldn't kill their chances of making the fiscal year forecast.
With TGS happening next month, and Nintendo certainly speaking with developers there, we are bound to get some leaks shortly after that. If reports start coming out of Japan for a possible March 2024 release, then it is likely that Nintendo is at least targeting it as a release month.
P4bl0
A New H1ope
I already said it’s not at the event but one day before, could be a different conference area also. It has nothing to do with Nintendo Live, just convenient choice for them since they already booked the venue for the weekend
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
- Pronouns
- He/Him
So, a few general comments on the updates:
Firstly, and most importantly, now that "around March" is on the table, I'd like to officially announce the re-launch of #TeamLeapDay. We'll be accepting membership applications by messenger pigeon, which must be accompanied by a one thousand word essay on why Wave Race should be a launch title.
Secondly, it looks like I wasn't completely wrong about BoTW, with both DLSS and fast loading confirmed to be in the demo. No mention of ray tracing, but two out of three ain't bad.
Actually being able to run DLSS at 4K/60fps is a bit better than I'd expected. My personal expectations were 4K/30fps, or around 1440p/60fps, just due to the cost of running DLSS itself, but it looks like it's either cheaper than I expected, or the hardware is more capable than I expected, or a bit of both. Good news either way.
The talk of "instant" load times in BoTW is interesting. Of course nothing is truly instant (even Ratchet & Clank uses a short portal sequence to hide loading, a bit like the old door-opening trick on Metroid Prime back in the day), but we're probably talking around a second or so for it to feel instant. That's about a 30x speed up compared to the Switch.
It's important to note that there are multiple factors which impact loading speeds, not just the speed of the storage itself (although as I've explained before, I was already expecting that to be much quicker). Roughly speaking, I'd categorise them into three different bottlenecks which could factor into how fast loading is:
If we were bottlenecked on storage, then again comparing to the original Switch game card as the baseline we'd once more be looking at around 1.5GB/s. For a while I've been considering UFS 3.1 to be reasonably likely, which ranges from 1.7GB/s to 2GB/s read speeds, and is pretty much in line with this. In fact, if Nintendo actually is considering 512GB of storage for the console, then 1.7GB/s UFS 3.1 is the slowest option they would have. Nobody makes 512GB modules for either eMMC or UFS 2.
The last one probably isn't trivial for BoTW on the original Switch, although likely a lighter workload than it is for ToTK with its increased number of gameplay systems. I definitely don't expect a 30x speedup here, but between taking the decompression work off the CPU, and just having more, faster CPU cores to do the work, it should be much faster either way.
Of course this is all based on a very specific reading of "instant" loading. If 2 seconds counts as instant, then divide every number in half. If it's 0.5 seconds, multiply by 2, etc. However, given expectations of internal storage close to 2GB/s, and dedicated decompression hardware to remove the main CPU bottleneck, dropping load times from 30s to around 1s seems quite reasonable.
Firstly, and most importantly, now that "around March" is on the table, I'd like to officially announce the re-launch of #TeamLeapDay. We'll be accepting membership applications by messenger pigeon, which must be accompanied by a one thousand word essay on why Wave Race should be a launch title.
Secondly, it looks like I wasn't completely wrong about BoTW, with both DLSS and fast loading confirmed to be in the demo. No mention of ray tracing, but two out of three ain't bad.
Actually being able to run DLSS at 4K/60fps is a bit better than I'd expected. My personal expectations were 4K/30fps, or around 1440p/60fps, just due to the cost of running DLSS itself, but it looks like it's either cheaper than I expected, or the hardware is more capable than I expected, or a bit of both. Good news either way.
The talk of "instant" load times in BoTW is interesting. Of course nothing is truly instant (even Ratchet & Clank uses a short portal sequence to hide loading, a bit like the old door-opening trick on Metroid Prime back in the day), but we're probably talking around a second or so for it to feel instant. That's about a 30x speed up compared to the Switch.
It's important to note that there are multiple factors which impact loading speeds, not just the speed of the storage itself (although as I've explained before, I was already expecting that to be much quicker). Roughly speaking, I'd categorise them into three different bottlenecks which could factor into how fast loading is:
- The speed of the storage medium itself. Obviously this can be a big bottleneck, as if you want to pull 1GB of data off a storage device which maxes out at 100MB/s, you can't do that any quicker than 10 seconds.
- The CPU overhead associated with pulling that data off the storage medium. The main part of this nowadays is decompression. If your CPU can't decompress data fast enough, then even if you've got super fast storage you're not going to be leveraging it (unless you want to ship purely uncompressed assets and balloon the game size). Aside from decompression, though, there's still some additional overhead of just communicating with the storage medium and transferring the data, which can be non-trivial.
- Non-storage related CPU work. This is doing everything you need to do to actually set up the game state. Allocate memory for all the different things you need to keep track of during gameplay, initialise all the different systems which are going to be running, and sync the game state with the save file. This is also where you're doing any kind of procedural generation, which is often overlooked when thinking about load times. People playing No Man's Sky on the PS5 for the first time were really puzzled why it wasn't loading much quicker than the PS4, but the game is fully procedural, so it was never really bottlenecked by storage in the first place.
If we were bottlenecked on storage, then again comparing to the original Switch game card as the baseline we'd once more be looking at around 1.5GB/s. For a while I've been considering UFS 3.1 to be reasonably likely, which ranges from 1.7GB/s to 2GB/s read speeds, and is pretty much in line with this. In fact, if Nintendo actually is considering 512GB of storage for the console, then 1.7GB/s UFS 3.1 is the slowest option they would have. Nobody makes 512GB modules for either eMMC or UFS 2.
The last one probably isn't trivial for BoTW on the original Switch, although likely a lighter workload than it is for ToTK with its increased number of gameplay systems. I definitely don't expect a 30x speedup here, but between taking the decompression work off the CPU, and just having more, faster CPU cores to do the work, it should be much faster either way.
Of course this is all based on a very specific reading of "instant" loading. If 2 seconds counts as instant, then divide every number in half. If it's 0.5 seconds, multiply by 2, etc. However, given expectations of internal storage close to 2GB/s, and dedicated decompression hardware to remove the main CPU bottleneck, dropping load times from 30s to around 1s seems quite reasonable.
carbvan
Paratroopa
- Pronouns
- he/him
It runs well for a few reasons. The demo is almost 2 years old at this point and UE5 has improved a lot since then. Nintendo was also very likely running the game at a comparatively low resolution and bumping it up with DLSS.
MadMarvainy
Moblin
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Ah, thanks. I never realized this.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
- Pronouns
- She/Her
If you're telling the truth, I say yes.
I mean still ... I think it's the best looking thing on the PS5/XSX still to this day (that stuff is objective of course) and I'm not even sure if it's close. They must have optimized the shit out of the thing.
I wonder what the chances are that Switch 2 doesn't just have plain vanilla DLSS too or if maybe Nintendo/Nvidia have something more custom tuned that is meant to work at extremely low resolutions better.
GPKs3
Koopa
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I don't think it will affect their chances of making their forecast but I don't think they're overly concerned with that. I do believe that the announcement will inevitably begin to lessen their revenue, so whenever they make the announcement I believe they'll want it to be as close as possible to when they plan to release the thing.
If it's coming in March then yeah, it should probably be announced this year. Again, it will affect their sales regardless, but it's a band-aid they'll need to pull off at one point or another.
carbvan
Paratroopa
- Pronouns
- he/him
There's a chance they have a special version of DLSS running but I can't imagine they're doing something like running the demo at 240p internally and using DLSS to boost it to 4k. That would either be a mushy muddy mess or if it did work well, actual wizardry that NVidia would want out on their PCs instead of locked to a business partner's console. UE5 has become a lot more stable and a lot more optimized over 2 years. That's the most likely explanation.
Ice cream
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I think frame generation is primarily (or solely) a tool used to help boost framerates (like get a 30fps game up to 60fps). Given we were not told what the framerate of the Matrix demo was I don't really see how there was really any reason to suspect they were using frame generation.
Koren Lesthe
Turrican, Terranigma and ESO lover
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Hm, no ?
I do sorta wonder if Nvidia is quietly sitting on some of that stuff because really you don't want people using DLSS from extremely low resolutions and advertising that hard if it was a little too good for their PC products.
It starts to get into the territory of "well why do I even need a new GPU if my 20 series or 30 series RTX card could see like an enormous gain from going to an absurdly low resolution.
But for Nintendo, since this is a product that's not really competing with high end Nvidia GPUs for the PC market ... maybe they feel a little more comfortable working with Nintendo to give them something that is specifically tailored for the unique test case demands of a hybrid console that has to run at a very small power envelope.
Couldn't it help in the case where like lets saying the demo really can only run at like 15 fps, but using frame generation they were able to get it to 30 fps? I mean I really don't care how they're doing it so long as it is something the Switch 2 can do but it does make one go "hmmm".
Armoured_Bear
Like Like
- Pronouns
- he
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I guess? But again nothing we were told indicated what the framerate was, if the framerate was in any way impressive, or anything at all about bottlenecks. So it's just odd to me to assume it has to be using frame gen.
IIRC the same demo ran at like 25-30FPS on PS5 and XSX.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
- Pronouns
- he/him
A related reason is that most video files you're dealing with are pretty aggressively compressed, so even if they say they're 1080p they look much worse than a high-bitrate file should. So by watching a 1440p or 4k video at 1080p, you're recovering bitrate, in addition to benefiting from supersampling.
Compare a high-quality Blu-ray to a 1080p YouTube stream and you'll see what I mean.
Yes ... which I mean even that alone would be amazing, in my opinion anyway, if it could run on Switch 2 even with DLSS. But they're also saying on top of that it runs with better or equal ray tracing level?
That seems incredible to me, but maybe that's just me. I'd love for that to be correct, but I have to wonder if it is correct how it is being accomplished.
Right off the bat I'm assuming 540p native render res with DLSS up to some higher resolution 25-30 fps (can't imagine they would want to show a demo that was running at like 18-20 fps or something).
kvetcha
hoopy frood
- Pronouns
- he/him
Frame generation really isn't a benefit below a certain base framerate, since your input latency is still tied to the native frames.
I wonder if this person knows he has become a diehard meme.Totally with you.
BlackthornOrion
#theprocessbroke
Kinda want them to go full 90s throwback and call it DL-SNES: Deep Learning Super Nintendo Entertainment Sampling
Now you're playing with power
Instro
Like Like
Yeah agree, just hedging bets there a bit, since it sounds like the earlier launch is not set in stone, but rather something they want to happen. If it slips, I don't see it slipping too late in 2024 though, based on what's been said.
Foltzie
Uncle
- Pronouns
- he/him
I loved the charm of the Wii and Wii U home menus. . . But boy I like the unrivaled speed that the Switch OS offers.
I could do with a happy middleman and bring back some whimsy to the apps. Assuming the OS has to increase its RAM allocation a bit to support larger video clips, that RAM allocation could add music or a little more flair to things when video capture isn't needed, like on the shop or Mii creator.
Last edited:
