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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

People still discuss possibility of 8GB RAM? lol
It is sort of the like the backward compatibility conversation where people just assume the worst and think Nintendo is overly cheap.

I still remember being on ERA when people thought the PS5 would have 32GB of RAM at 13.3 teraflops lol. 12GB RAM is nowhere near that crazy.

Good times though.
 
Didn't know it was this bad. From a layman perspective, my first thought is that Nintendo and Macronix decided to move away from XtraROM, but had to stick with it this gen.

Maybe they thought prices for 32nm wafers would go down enough for 32GB be at acceptable prices and wasn't worth the R&D on a tech about to die.

If they weren't planning to push XtraROM any further than 32nm, they would have known that long before the Switch launched, and could have used whatever the replacement is on the Switch (alongside XtraROM, if necessary). My guess is that they've tried to scale down further, but have reached some fundamental scaling limits on their technology. Scaling in NAND flash has basically stopped at this point, and manufacturers have pivoted towards increasing layer counts in 3D NAND instead of smaller manufacturing processes. XtraROM isn't NAND, and NAND got quite a bit further than 32nm (even Macronix makes 19nm NAND), but it's possible that Macronix hit a similar scaling limitation with XtraROM. The required longevity of XtraROM may present a further challenge; smaller manufacturing processes might mean that charge retention becomes an issue (as electrons have smaller gaps to jump to "de-trap"), perhaps to the point where it's simply not possible to achieve the required lifespan on smaller processes.

I'm curious where they go next. Perhaps Macronix plan to drop XtraROM and switch to something else (which for some reason they can't use for game cards for the current Switch), or they pivot to something like 3D XtraROM instead. It's also possible that Nintendo just go elsewhere, but nobody else is offering the same combination of capacity and longevity. Either they go to a NAND provider, who can manufacture at high capacity and low cost, but whose consumer parts typically have a lifecycle on the order of 4-5 years, rather than the 20 of XtraROM, or they go to a ROM provider, who manufacture long-lasting ROM products, but at relatively tiny capacities.

Personally I think a NAND provider is the more likely of the two, as it's got the smaller gap to bridge. EPROM/EEPROM parts max out at around 4MB, and although sizes are kept small due to low demand for larger parts, it's a pretty big jump to increase capacity by 10,000x just to catch up with Macronix. Creating a version of NAND which trades off rewrite performance in favour of longer data retention seems more viable to me, and it's basically what Macronix did with NROM (originally intended as flash memory) to create XtraROM.

It's also a difficult one as the market size of Switch game cards is on a pretty irreversible downward trajectory. They're producing a lot of them now, but Nintendo's digital percentage has been growing over the course of the generation, and will continue to do so. Even if Switch NG is just as successful as Switch, there'll still be a gradual decline in card manufacturing over the generation, just due to the continued migration to digital. That means there's only a finite, and diminishing, return on investment into new technologies for the cards, whether that's investment by Macronix or someone else.
 
John Linneman literally said it's fine off a high speed HDD, which even a UHS-1 SD card would match or beat.

If UHS-1 SD card can do Rift Apart provided a modern CPU and decompression, I really doubt there's a need for anything faster from Nintendo's point of view.
Thats only upto 104mb/s though (I didn't know how fast they go so I googled). HDDs can go upto 150mb/s, which is still way far off anything that would make Ratchet and Clank Rift Apart playable. BUT, having a huge amount of RAM would help a lot. But it needs to be huge.

But games don't need to do what Ratchet and Clank is doing. So it'll be fine.
 
Capcom has stated they have an unannounced game that'll be released by March 31st 2024. How likely do you think it could be delayed and become a Switch 2 launch title(I personally doubt it) and how likely could it be that it's MegaMan X9?

Source
They won't delay the game in question for Switch 2 launch. The game in question will launch when intended, which is before March 2024.
 
If it's known that they started from scratch, that'd be one thing, but I'd question how that's known. Being a new repo and there being little to nothing remaining of the previous thing aren't super strong indicators by themselves. You'd have to have some pretty deep insight to know if the starting point was an empty repo or a copy of the 3DS one.

That said, calling it a rewrite is probably fair, and a more useful description of what happened. I'm just not aware of any evidence that really supports it being a true "burn it to the ground" rewrite, especially since it seemingly kept the name and there's some evidence of 3DS component use.
I don't do 3ds stuff, but from what I can gather 3ds Horizon and NX Horizon are pretty much only similar in concept and name, just about everything else is completely different.
So it's either a hard rewrite or they modified Horizon CTR so heavily to the point it barely resembles the original OS. SciresM thinks it's the former, it also lines up with Horizon's very bare bones state in ~mid 2015 and how Nintendo develops Horizon in modern times (they appear to prefer doing clean rewrites over hacking around old implementations, where applicable. They'll also rewrite stuff for seemingly no particular reason sometimes, even if it entails api breakage.)
But it is impossible to know for certain, yes.
 
Thats only upto 104mb/s though (I didn't know how fast they go so I googled). HDDs can go upto 150mb/s, which is still way far off anything that would make Ratchet and Clank Rift Apart playable. BUT, having a huge amount of RAM would help a lot. But it needs to be huge.

But games don't need to do what Ratchet and Clank is doing. So it'll be fine.
You can't compare an HDD and SSD by their sequential read speed. Sequential read is not really the relevant metric for games in general. HDDs have absolutely garbage random read performance, and that matters a whole lot more.
 
HDDs can go upto 150mb/s, which is still way far off anything that would make Ratchet and Clank Rift Apart playable.

Not according to John Linneman of Digital Foundry.

Rift Apart isn't some magically ultra straining game. It's just a game. It functions on a HDD.
 
and could have used whatever the replacement is on the Switch
Well, there wasn't a replacement readily available, which is why they would have to stick with it until they make a replacement.

I should have been more clear that I was suggesting that Macronix has been working onto this replacement since whenever they gave up on XtraROM (like the NAND suggestion you gave).
 
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I'm actually really curious how developers would work with a console with an obscenely over-specced amount of RAM. I think in one of your posts a while back you used a Wii with 16GB of RAM as an extreme case of overkill, but I'd be really interested in finding an alternate universe where that actually happened. I suspect the limit in extreme cases like that is how quickly you can load data into RAM and the audience's patience for loading screens. The Wii supported 8.5GB discs, and with a plausible 2:1 compression ratio that could mean 16GB of game data, so you could actually fill the entire RAM with assets, so long as players are willing to put up with probably 20 or 30 mins of loading as it pulls all the data off the disc and decompresses it on the Wii's CPU. The Wii really would have benefitted from a modern standby mode in that case!



The strange thing is that it's entirely possible that Nintendo's new hybrid system launches at around the same time as the PS5 Pro, and has more usable RAM for games. The PS4 Pro had the same RAM capacity as the PS4, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the PS5 Pro stick to 16GB as well. I don't think 16GB is particularly likely for Switch NG, but the fact that RAM prices have plummeted so much over the past year makes me think it's at least somewhat plausible, and if they go that route then it's a safe bet that they'll reserve less RAM for the OS than Sony or MS do.
I see two variants for Pro, 16 or 20GDDR6+4GB of DDR5 only for system, that 16 or 20 would be full availabile for devs, RT also need more RAM
 
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It is sort of the like the backward compatibility conversation where people just assume the worst and think Nintendo is overly cheap.

I still remember being on ERA when people thought the PS5 would have 32GB of RAM at 13.3 teraflops lol. 12GB RAM is nowhere near that crazy.

Good times though.
Yeah Indeed, Switch 2 will be have 12GB of RAM and thats totally expectation, 16 would be just best case scenario but also posibble, 8GB of RAM in 2024 would be totally bad
 
I don't do 3ds stuff, but from what I can gather 3ds Horizon and NX Horizon are pretty much only similar in concept and name, just about everything else is completely different.
So it's either a hard rewrite or they modified Horizon CTR so heavily to the point it barely resembles the original OS. SciresM thinks it's the former, it also lines up with Horizon's very bare bones state in ~mid 2015 and how Nintendo develops Horizon in modern times (they appear to prefer doing clean rewrites over hacking around old implementations, where applicable. They'll also rewrite stuff for seemingly no particular reason sometimes, even if it entails api breakage.)
But it is impossible to know for certain, yes.
I suspect the homebrew community has probably thought way more about "API breakage" than Nintendo has. Anything not accessible to games (whether by access control or by fiat) is an internal implementation detail of a suite of software that's always shipped as a set. It's never intended to work with anything other than the relevant version of the rest of the OS. A breaking change to one of the private APIs is broadly inconsequential to Nintendo.

Like it or not, the Homebrew community is probably just not a consideration in Nintendo's API compatibility policy.
 
They won't delay the game in question for Switch 2 launch. The game in question will launch when intended, which is before March 2024.
Yeah you can't just delay a million seller like this because of one system when game sure will do numbers because of the multiplat approach
Plus, this game will launch in the next system too
 
I don’t think the distinction that I raised was minor, otherwise I wouldn’t have bothered. Yes, the meat of these MoneyDJ articles is that they received inside info (may or may not be correct) of the Switch NG launch window, and the source was probably from within Foxconn as I suggested here. However, any connections to PixArt or Weltrend are suppositional on the part of the reporter—this is of note because:
  1. According to factory uncle #2, the Joy-Con has been redesigned, therefore PixArt’s involvement isn’t a given. When people take MoneyDJ’s conjecture as a fact, speculations of the new Joy-Con inheriting the current IR camera or adding any new image sensors start taking a life of its own without any evidence to substantiate it.
  2. When translating foreign rumors, accuracy matters more than usual, because most readers would not check the source before parsing the words and building new narratives. For instance, Mochizuki baselessly claimed that Nintendo’s FY03/24 projection does not include any new hardware, and to this day many still cite that misinformation. And in this particular case, the speculative connection made by the reporter somehow was taken as a disclosure made by PixArt itself.
It’s never my intention to change any minds or harsh anyone’s buzz, but to encourage more discerning examinations of foreign rumors mediated by content farms.
We're on the same page, quibbles about that part of the reporting aside. I just want people in this thread to know that the key question of the articles' legitimacy doesn't really have to do with whether or not PixArt is a source. I see now that one of the derivative articles caused this thread to start looking into PixArt's finances like they'd find something about new game consoles in there, so that mistake is definitely worth clarifying. Still, I think the takeaway most people would get from even the very bad content farm reporting (something something supply chain means new Nintendo console according to MoneyDJ) is at least correct. Lol never mind, the more derivative articles I see the worse it gets. Yikes. Point taken about how bad the English re-reporting of this has been.
 
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I suspect the homebrew community has probably thought way more about "API breakage" than Nintendo has. Anything not accessible to games (whether by access control or by fiat) is an internal implementation detail of a suite of software that's always shipped as a set. It's never intended to work with anything other than the relevant version of the rest of the OS. A breaking change to one of the private APIs is broadly inconsequential to Nintendo.

Like it or not, the Homebrew community is probably just not a consideration in Nintendo's API compatibility policy.
The point was "they like rewriting shit". But yes, anything using the stuff they'll allow api breakages in is under their control. Though they do like to play with fire :p
 
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the problem for a separate ML chip is latency, which would kill DLSS. but they already have tensor cores for all of this, so what is a separate chip even needed for? and what features would an ML chip be used for that the GPU (and tensor cores) and CPU can't already do
 
Then I don't see why MH6 coming out early next year is unbelievable. The monster hunter guy like the guy himself alluded that there would be news at tgs and if the report is right they were probably talking about monster hunter as I don't really see any other game doing millions in that short amount of time. Paired with the data leak, they already projected the game would be out within a few months (granted that was a while ago and the leak was pretty inconsistent with release schedules), shift around the dates and things check out no?

sorry this has NOTHING to do with hardware I'm just rambling
i could see Monster Hunter 6 releasing next year, given that 2024 is the 20th anniversary of the franchise, and they just mentioned they gonna release in the fiscal year, a game that gonna sell milions.

 
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Here's some "fake" insider info to spice things up 😆
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I can't tell if I'm impressed or not that this person knows who Barbara Liskov is, but I doubt Nvidia would name a chip after someone still alive.
 
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They won't delay the game in question for Switch 2 launch. The game in question will launch when intended, which is before March 2024.
Nate, do you think you’ll ever do another insights episode on the successor as we approach 2024? Or are you content to let things play themselves out at this point. Which, fair.
 
I'm shamelessly piggybacking off @fwd-bwd's posts, but now that I see how bad the English-language reporting on this has been, I want to make a post that summarizes the MoneyDJ saga.

In short:

Taiwanese financial news outlet MoneyDJ has been publishing articles which include claims, based on unspecified "supply chain" info, that a new Switch model will be launched in Q1 next year (i.e. before April).

Based on this supposed knowledge, they've stated an expectation of increased business for certain companies (Foxconn, Weltrend, and PixArt) who are assemblers or suppliers for the current Switch. The actual source of the supposed supply chain info hasn't been named, so it's possible that the connections to those businesses are just assumptions.

And more in-depth:

The first such article was published on July 7 from reporter 鄭盈芷. This article is about the business outlook for Foxconn (鴻準) in the second half of this year, and it states that Nintendo plans to launch a new Switch model in Q1 2024, thus Foxconn (the factory assembler of the Switch today) can be expected to see increased business by the end of this year.

A couple hours later on July 7, two articles were published from a different author, 趙慶翔. The first article is about Weltrend (偉詮電), a Taiwanese microchip supplier, and the second article is about PixArt (原相), a Taiwanese image sensor supplier. It's been claimed in past reporting that Weltrend supplies power management ICs and USB controllers to Nintendo, and PixArt is a known supplier for Nintendo which probably provides the IR component for the Joy-cons and maybe also the Switch's ambient light sensor. Both articles are similar business outlooks for these companies, and both articles state that "supply chain" sources have indicated a new "Japanese game console" will be launched early next year.

Finally, on July 24, another article about PixArt's business outlook by 趙慶翔 was published. It's pretty similar to the previous one, and makes the same claim about supply chain sources and a new Japanese game console launch, while noting that the console belongs to one of PixArt's key customers (i.e. Nintendo). This is the article that sparked the current wave of extremely poor English-language (mis)reporting.

The author of the first article published a similar one about Foxconn on June 23, 2021 which claimed a new Switch model would be introduced in the second half of that year, again leading to increased business for Foxconn. That claim turned out to be true. However, it's worth noting that Bloomberg had been reporting on (or at least, attempting to report on) the OLED model since August 2020, including claims about a September or October 2021 release reported in May 2021. The 2021 MoneyDJ article didn't contextualize its statement about Nintendo's plans with a "supply chain info" comment similar to today's, so it's debatable whether that article should be taken as evidence of good sources for their reporting today.

PixArt and Weltrend aren't new to the Switch model rumor/leak game, either. Both were named in an August 2020 report by Taiwan's United Daily News about the supply chain for a new Switch model, which was published the same day as Bloomberg's first report about the eventual OLED model. PixArt even made it in to a June 2016 article by DigiTimes about the NX. So I do think it's somewhat noteworthy that all three of these companies tend to be talked about, in similar outlets (often Taiwanese), not too far ahead of the reveal of new Switch models. That said, the details are not always accurate, as the UDN article seems to suggest an early 2021 launch, and the DigiTimes article has the baffling assertion that NX production was delayed so that Nintendo could add VR. It's possible for the MoneyDJ article to be right about the supply chain and wrong about the release timing. But it definitely comports with past trends for this kind of info to come from companies like PixArt and Weltrend, and to show up in the middle of the year when these H2 business outlook articles are being written.
 
Where is it stated in Capcom's financial reports that it's launching this fiscal year.

It's stated in the tweet that the game is due out before March 2024.

Nate, do you think you’ll ever do another insights episode on the successor as we approach 2024? Or are you content to let things play themselves out at this point. Which, fair.
Depends on the info, if I'm given permission to discuss things, and other factors. Right now, I'm content with letting things play out on their own & evaluating the information I have further -- even if just for my own point of reference & for discussion sake amongst colleagues, contacts, and others.
 
It's stated in the tweet that the game is due out before March 2024.


Depends on the info, if I'm given permission to discuss things, and other factors. Right now, I'm content with letting things play out on their own & evaluating the information I have further -- even if just for my own point of reference & for discussion sake amongst colleagues, contacts, and others.
Great to know, thanks. Have a great Friday.
 
I'm beginning to wonder if even Nintendo had no clue how successful the Switch would be, so with Macronix (that's who manufactures the Game Carts, correct?), they could not negotiate a great deal back then, but would be looking to reverse that for the NG Switch to keep prices competitive.

I only say this because if we want Game Carts to be much much faster than current ones for Switch (assuming UFS internal storage and such, plus faster microSD), the price would be going up correct due to new tech being used, or at least a larger bus, more pins, etc?

But at the same time, the Switch has over 1 BILLION in Software sales total, so even if only 1/3rd of that is Physical sales, that's still 330-340 million Game Carts, and that I consider to be a conservative figure. I'd be curious what the overall all-time Physical sales are, but I believe Nintendo does not disclose that figure except that Physical vs. Digital for general sales in individual games are about 50/50 split. Does that mean there are about a half billion Game Carts been manufactured?

Again, something just doesn't add up with all this. How can the carts be that fricking expensive, especially when there's been hundreds of millions of these damn things manufactured already, and looking to be another few hundred million or so being manufactured for NG Switch with the new Game Cart standard?

Then again, Nintendo could simply opt for the exact same Game Carts as before, but given their history with carts seems unlikely.
Didn't know it was this bad. From a layman perspective, my first thought is that Nintendo and Macronix decided to move away from XtraROM, but had to stick with it this gen.

Maybe they thought prices for 32nm wafers would go down enough for 32GB be at acceptable prices and wasn't worth the R&D on a tech about to die.
On top of these posts from Thraktor that are GREAT:
As others have mentioned, Nintendo accounts for a large part of Macronix's business, possibly all of their XtraROM business, so they're definitely in a better negotiating position.

The big issue with game card capacities is that manufacturing advancements for XtraROM have stalled. Macronix have a "Milestones" section in their Annual Report, which among other things lists advancements in their various technologies. Here are the references to XtraROM:

2006 - Mass production of 100nm XtraROM®
2007 - Mass production of 75nm XtraROM®
2008 - Mass production of 65nm XtraROM®
2012 - Mass production of 45 nm XtraROM®
2014 - Mass production of 32 nm XtraROM® products

They're still on the 32nm process. Usually you'd expect newer manufacturing processes to come along to increase capacities and bring down prices, but this hasn't happened with XtraROM. There are obviously clear incentives for Macronix to continue advancing XtraROM, as without doing so they risk losing their biggest client, but there's been no movement in almost 10 years, after pretty regular advancements up to that point (and they've continued to improve the processes for their other product lines like NAND flash).
If they weren't planning to push XtraROM any further than 32nm, they would have known that long before the Switch launched, and could have used whatever the replacement is on the Switch (alongside XtraROM, if necessary). My guess is that they've tried to scale down further, but have reached some fundamental scaling limits on their technology. Scaling in NAND flash has basically stopped at this point, and manufacturers have pivoted towards increasing layer counts in 3D NAND instead of smaller manufacturing processes. XtraROM isn't NAND, and NAND got quite a bit further than 32nm (even Macronix makes 19nm NAND), but it's possible that Macronix hit a similar scaling limitation with XtraROM. The required longevity of XtraROM may present a further challenge; smaller manufacturing processes might mean that charge retention becomes an issue (as electrons have smaller gaps to jump to "de-trap"), perhaps to the point where it's simply not possible to achieve the required lifespan on smaller processes.

I'm curious where they go next. Perhaps Macronix plan to drop XtraROM and switch to something else (which for some reason they can't use for game cards for the current Switch), or they pivot to something like 3D XtraROM instead. It's also possible that Nintendo just go elsewhere, but nobody else is offering the same combination of capacity and longevity. Either they go to a NAND provider, who can manufacture at high capacity and low cost, but whose consumer parts typically have a lifecycle on the order of 4-5 years, rather than the 20 of XtraROM, or they go to a ROM provider, who manufacture long-lasting ROM products, but at relatively tiny capacities.

Personally I think a NAND provider is the more likely of the two, as it's got the smaller gap to bridge. EPROM/EEPROM parts max out at around 4MB, and although sizes are kept small due to low demand for larger parts, it's a pretty big jump to increase capacity by 10,000x just to catch up with Macronix. Creating a version of NAND which trades off rewrite performance in favour of longer data retention seems more viable to me, and it's basically what Macronix did with NROM (originally intended as flash memory) to create XtraROM.

It's also a difficult one as the market size of Switch game cards is on a pretty irreversible downward trajectory. They're producing a lot of them now, but Nintendo's digital percentage has been growing over the course of the generation, and will continue to do so. Even if Switch NG is just as successful as Switch, there'll still be a gradual decline in card manufacturing over the generation, just due to the continued migration to digital. That means there's only a finite, and diminishing, return on investment into new technologies for the cards, whether that's investment by Macronix or someone else.
... I want to add to this and maybe address some deficits.

First, Macronix has clearly been promising larger capacities at cheaper prices for their XtraROM product since at least 2018, as 64GB Game Cards were promised but delayed several times. Thraktor is correct in saying that Macronix over-promised and underdelivered, but the question is in which way. Developing new fabs for smaller process nodes is no small endeavour, with COVID assuredly throwing a wrench into the mix. But it could also be that the way they have developed their NROM tech specifically has hit a limit of their capacity to do so or, for reasons that boggle the mind, Macronix drastically underfunded R&D into the tech underpinning XtraROM that has caused it to stall out at 32nm. Either way, they’re screwing up their own relationship with Nintendo in the process and it’ll be on them to fix it.

While NAND has stalled in terms of shrinking, that’s because of Moore’s Law more than anything and stalled at much smaller process nodes. NAND is manufactured right now on anything between 28-18nm nodes, because going into smaller FinFET processes is actually cost-inefficient for the tech compared to 3D NAND technology. 32nm is still within Moore’s Law, which (not to dumb it down too much) basically means that it does not use FinFET and still mostly adhered to the method of 2D chip design dating back to 1994 or earlier. There is at least the possibility of moving to the smallest confirmed pre-FinFET process node (which appears to be 28nm?) for Macronix’s technology and cutting costs in the process, but they do not seem able to do so, nor to develop a 3D NROM or add more bits per memory cell.

Additionally, physical games are diminishing, but not at the rate you’d expect, especially not among Nintendo’s consumer base. A solution will be necessary.

I don't think that Nintendo's at a dead end here, there's still a few options:
  1. The issue with smaller process nodes for XtraROM have been resolved but saw a severely delayed rollout due to COVID.
  2. Macronix has either underfunded R&D, moved R&D in the wrong direction (like trying to store more bits per memory cell instead of working to get it on a smaller node) or simply cannot solve issues with moving XtraROM to a smaller process node and Nintendo finds a new partner willing to soak up that business (likely an existing NAND manufacturer as suggested) by:
    1. using a similar but different nitride-based multi-level cell charge trap method to develop a competing NROM product that can be made at 28nm or less
    2. using a different but superior method to achieve a multi-level cell charge trap method to develop a better ROM-like solution with equal or greater data longevity by sacrificing erase/rewrite performance that can be made at 28nm or less
  3. Nintendo does the unthinkable and opts to forego a ROM-like altogether, instead just using straight-up standard NAND, with physical games having a warranty program to compensate for the shorter data retention lifespan, and enjoys all the potential associated cost benefits that may afford them
The only option off the table is reverting back to mask ROM, because while it would allow them die shrink opportunities (as it's effectively no different than any other IC that way), the associated time crunch that such a production method presents (which is what largely would have motivated Nintendo to abandon mask ROM in the first place) should absolutely take it off the table.
 
Does this mean GTA5 is possible to come too? I'll take that more than Red Dead tbh.
I don't see why not. I guess that's just the nature of the business, sometimes it's not the tech and games simply never come to a certain platform.

Cloud version ?


Tech-wise, GTAV is a PS3/360 game that's been scaled up several times over.

A Switch version has always been possible so RDR being a native port as well doesn't shock me in the slightest.

Those games had to run on PS3/360, and one of those systems had a split RAM pool that limited many devs to only 256MB being available (PS3).
 
If they weren't planning to push XtraROM any further than 32nm, they would have known that long before the Switch launched, and could have used whatever the replacement is on the Switch (alongside XtraROM, if necessary). My guess is that they've tried to scale down further, but have reached some fundamental scaling limits on their technology. Scaling in NAND flash has basically stopped at this point, and manufacturers have pivoted towards increasing layer counts in 3D NAND instead of smaller manufacturing processes. XtraROM isn't NAND, and NAND got quite a bit further than 32nm (even Macronix makes 19nm NAND), but it's possible that Macronix hit a similar scaling limitation with XtraROM. The required longevity of XtraROM may present a further challenge; smaller manufacturing processes might mean that charge retention becomes an issue (as electrons have smaller gaps to jump to "de-trap"), perhaps to the point where it's simply not possible to achieve the required lifespan on smaller processes.

I'm curious where they go next. Perhaps Macronix plan to drop XtraROM and switch to something else (which for some reason they can't use for game cards for the current Switch), or they pivot to something like 3D XtraROM instead. It's also possible that Nintendo just go elsewhere, but nobody else is offering the same combination of capacity and longevity. Either they go to a NAND provider, who can manufacture at high capacity and low cost, but whose consumer parts typically have a lifecycle on the order of 4-5 years, rather than the 20 of XtraROM, or they go to a ROM provider, who manufacture long-lasting ROM products, but at relatively tiny capacities.

Personally I think a NAND provider is the more likely of the two, as it's got the smaller gap to bridge. EPROM/EEPROM parts max out at around 4MB, and although sizes are kept small due to low demand for larger parts, it's a pretty big jump to increase capacity by 10,000x just to catch up with Macronix. Creating a version of NAND which trades off rewrite performance in favour of longer data retention seems more viable to me, and it's basically what Macronix did with NROM (originally intended as flash memory) to create XtraROM.

It's also a difficult one as the market size of Switch game cards is on a pretty irreversible downward trajectory. They're producing a lot of them now, but Nintendo's digital percentage has been growing over the course of the generation, and will continue to do so. Even if Switch NG is just as successful as Switch, there'll still be a gradual decline in card manufacturing over the generation, just due to the continued migration to digital. That means there's only a finite, and diminishing, return on investment into new technologies for the cards, whether that's investment by Macronix or someone else.
It's those diminishing returns that has me thinking that they not only probably will, but can't not, continue to use the exact same solution. 32GB only reached volume and major first party adoption THIS year.

64 is theoretically possible and the RnD involved in say, filling the Game Card with one solid chip and doubling the lanes to provide a theoretical 128GB at 100mb/s is comparatively small compared to changing providers or developing a wholly new format; and that's if they even do it.

Right now my expectation would be no change, and games that require faster speeds and/or higher capacities just mandate an install. That's already the case for Switch, I think it'll probably just be a lot more common next gen.
 
Cloud version of a PS3 game?

Switch has gotten several remasters of games from that gen including the likes of Dark Souls and soon to be the Arkham games.
yeah and we also got a couple of ps4 games that are really ps2 games as cloud versions cough kingdom hearts cough
 
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I felt it was him since the beginning :ROFLMAO: , also because it already have done stuff like that (fake leaks).

I'm italian and I follow him and it's crazay talented.

I sure would hire him for trailer work and so on.

But ... looks at the designs of the fake ... not for product design.
 
[...]For instance, Mochizuki baselessly claimed that Nintendo’s FY03/24 projection does not include any new hardware, and to this day many still cite that misinformation.[...]
I don't remember all of this quite well but I was pretty sure this bit was actual info (and not that "no hardware is planned for FY23/24"). What part of it is actually misinformation?
I just want to be up to date about this :unsure:
 
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It's those diminishing returns that has me thinking that they not only probably will, but can't not, continue to use the exact same solution. 32GB only reached volume and major first party adoption THIS year.

64 is theoretically possible and the RnD involved in say, filling the Game Card with one solid chip and doubling the lanes to provide a theoretical 128GB at 100mb/s is comparatively small compared to changing providers or developing a wholly new format; and that's if they even do it.

Right now my expectation would be no change, and games that require faster speeds and/or higher capacities just mandate an install. That's already the case for Switch, I think it'll probably just be a lot more common next gen.
Even going the route that you suggest, so long as Nintendo is offering a physical format, it is still in their best interests to do something about the current situation, because more importantly than capacity increases or speed increases (which the R&D for isn't that large, let's be clear), cost reductions are the main impetus for it, even if they still do everything you suggest. Because even if they do what you suggest, they could still do it for less money than they're paying per unit right now.

And let's be clear, XtraROM was a product that Macronix re-purposed from a dud technology that never made it off the ground for its intended purpose, so the basic and largest component of R&D was largely already paid for on that technology and just re-purposed after the fact (as @Thraktor helpfully pointed out a while ago). And this is frankly common in most R&D divisions, technology developments that didn't cut the mustard for one use case that would be ideal for another if they simply had a high enough customer purchase volume who they could re-purpose it for because the use case sidesteps that tech's inherent deficits (as with nitride-based charge trapping having bad erase/rewrite ability that Nintendo did not and would not care about so long as it had very strong data retention). Someone could literally be sitting on a solution right now.

Forget chip makers, this is true of every R&D division across all fields; Listerine was originally developed as surgical antiseptic, wood pulp synthesized to feel like cotton and used for WWI wound dressings was re-purposed after the war by Kimberly-Clark into the first cost-efficient disposable sanitary napkins (Kotex) and one-use facial tissues (Kleenex), bubble wrap was meant to be wallpaper, Coca-Cola was meant to wean people off morphine addiction... and then there's drug companies rebranding medicinal treatments intended for blood pressure, inflamed prostate and crossed eyes to instead treat ED (Viagra), male pattern baldness (Propecia) and facial wrinkles (Botox) respectively.
And this is just a cursory list of how many times this happens.
 
If it's really coming to Switch, native version
RAGE Engine was already updated to support the system
It did? No game is using it on Switch right now. GTA Trilogy is on Unreal Engine.
Does this mean GTA5 is possible to come too? I'll take that more than Red Dead tbh.
GTA4 should be next. RDR1+ GTA4 were rumored together to get released on modern platforms. Midnight Club LA too.
 
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