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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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ZachyCatGames said:
"dude trust me"
(I don't really want to/can't say anything. I'm also not 100% certain it is what I think it is, some of this shit is like working with riddles.)
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Just FYI, I don't know ZachyCat in any context but forums, but they know their shit.
 
lexony said:
Selling over 200 Million software in FY 2023 sounds to me they pretty much need third parties, even when there is not a single third party game which rivals the sales of Nintendo First Party titles. Except for maybe Monster Hunter and Minecraft (of which we don‘t know the sales numbers but it‘s likely over 20 million).
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Their FY2023 report says 80% of those software sales are 1st party.

Yes, that 20% is always important to have as well, but it’s clear it can just be the lower budget, indie, AA, games that target mobile platforms.

AAA 3rd party multiplats that target next gen hardware usage don’t affect Nintendo success at all. So when I hear people saying Nintendo “needs” to target the big “current gen” multiplat support…I will always ask “but why”

Again, Sony will show 80-85% of their software sales last year was 3rd party. Much of that being the bigger ones that want to show off what new hardware does. Sony obviously wants to keep that and cater to it. Otherwise they lose a majority portion of their revenue.

Still the business of Nintendo dosen‘t work with First party games alone. In theory as long as Switch is selling, most third parties will decide to bring games to the platform if possible. But at some point this is getting harder and maybe not worth the money to invest the time for a Switch port. Not even for indie games, which are getting more complex too.
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I argue it’s always possible.

The Witcher 3 on the Switch proves this. It was relatively cheap to port, with a relatively small (yet very good at optimizing) team.

Any game that appears on the Xbox One could be put on the Switch. Any of them.

So when they don’t, it’s not because it’s impossible, it’s because they don’t think there is demand for certain type of games on a Nintendo portable to make the effort worth the extra porting.

And the sales of these big multiplats that do make a Switch port actually support that theory that it’s not worth diverting resources to. Just let those resources focus on ps/Xbox/pc which promise better returns on investments.

A much more powerful Switch hardware won’t change this equation. It will still get the same type of support it has always gotten.

Now you can say, so what, as long as Nintendo is releasing new games for their platforms? Though getting continuously new third parties on your platform is something that even your average Joe is noticing.
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My argument is that the Switch platform has the best 3rd party support of any Nintendo system ever. And people have noticed that.

So…the type of big multiplats that it hasn’t been getting in the last 6 years, it’s perfectly OK if it still doesn’t get those games in the next 6 years.

No one should be under the illusion that this new powered model will get any kind of new support that it hasn’t already gotten.
 
bixente said:
Wouldn't it be odd for them to announce new hardware next week when they're busy promoting pikmin 4? If they did that, pikmin would lose a lot of mind share... understandably.
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To be fair, their 2016 games like Sun and Moon, Color Splash, etc. didn't stop them revealing Switch.

As others have said, the years of planning and development that go into a console's creation mean a lot of the dates around it are extremely inflexible. Even if the Pikmin team piped up asking them to push it around to give them some leeway, the console was always going to come first. In a way, it's poetic. Pikmin has always been screwed over by its platform. GameCube flopped by Nintendo standards, Pikmin 2's Wii release was too late to make an impact, Wii U, and now, potentially, this.

B u t. If they announce that 4K Pikmin 4 will be a thing day one, something Miyamoto has openly talked about, higher resolution for Pikmin, if they make it clear "it plays all Nintendo Switch games, some with enhancements, like Pikmin 4.". Then it could actually HELP Pikmin 4, since it will, for a brief moment, be the epicentre of marketing for a new machine.
 
AshiodyneFX said:
I go on a tangent on why the new 2ds xl is absolute dog shit whenever its mentioned its so overrated in a way that makes me question if the people that talk about it ever tried any other 3ds
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The best selling was the OG, and the worst selling was the standard issue New (non-XL, non-2D). However...

Over my time with 3DS systems, I had a 3DS, New 3DS XL, a New 3DS (non-XL) and a New 2DS XL. I also got to try the original 2DS. My opinion? The 2DS XL IS one of the best models. It's more comfortable and compact than New 3DS XL, while being less scratch prone. It's fairly serviceable and doesn't require a screw removed to change the SD card. It's comfortable, has the "NEW" processor, and had a decent price. I think the standard New 3DS was the best all-rounder, super compact, decent battery life, plenty fast, extremely pretty, peak DS, but I think the New 2DS is superior to the New 3DS XL in almost every way.
 
AshiodyneFX said:
could you point me to where i could read thier posts? i am still a bit skeptical
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I’ll say it in a riddle:

“They who meddle with what lurks under the chamber of the king is they who knows how the inner workings of the King’s chambers that stretches underneath the village of the kingdom, they know how things flow and they know what comes upstream. Dig deep and you too will find what they meddle with”

🤭



Anyway, I wouldn’t mind a Drake or a switch unit that is clamshell in design. Like maybe the light as a clamshell.

Clamshell return please…. There was a charm to it….


Would be willing to sacrifice the L3/R3 on the sticks and have them as separate sticks within distance of the sticks that do not have actual presses.
 
Back when Drake began development in 2019 and apparently being completed and taped out in mid 2022, it seems likely that the original target for releasing new hardware was likely 2023, and maybe the original target was late 2022 when the process started. Im sure there were some delays thanks to Covid but instead of these delays being concerning for Nintendo, they instead watched Switch sales explode in 2020 and 2021. During this period of time, I cant really see a reason Nintendo "couldn't" pump the brakes a bit on the release timing of Redacted. Up until the point where Nintendo has made contracts with manufacturing partners, the plans can remain rather flexible. Certainly waiting too long would pose the risk of Drake becoming too antiquated to be viable for the Switch successor, but we are a couple years away from that being a reasonable argument.

Could Nintendo have looked at the momentum for Switch in late 2021 and into 2022 and decide that it is actually in their best interest to ride out Switch for an extra 12-18 months before rolling out new hardware? After all, Switch will likely sell 12-15 million units this year, and even for the most successful consoles, that is a solid year. So while it is very difficult for a manufacture to put a hold on a product at the last minute, if this decision was made almost two years in advance, that is very much a possibility. We have seen Nintendo become very strategic with holding completed software for advantageous release scheduling, perhaps they decided to give Switch an extra year to shine before releasing the successor. I ponder this mostly because I just cant see Nintendo's original plan being to have Switch be there only platform on the market all the way until late 2023 or even late 2024? There would have been no reason for Nintendo to believe Switch would still be selling this well when they were making forecasting predictions back in 2020 and 2021.
 
My Tulpa said:
Their FY2023 report says 80% of those software sales are 1st party.

Yes, that 20% is always important to have as well, but it’s clear it can just be the lower budget, indie, AA, games that target mobile platforms.

AAA 3rd party multiplats that target next gen hardware usage don’t affect Nintendo success at all. So when I hear people saying Nintendo “needs” to target the big “current gen” multiplat support…I will always ask “but why”

Again, Sony will show 80-85% of their software sales last year was 3rd party. Much of that being the bigger ones that want to show off what new hardware does. Sony obviously wants to keep that and cater to it. Otherwise they lose a majority portion of their revenue.



I argue it’s always possible.

The Witcher 3 on the Switch proves this. It was relatively cheap to port, with a relatively small (yet very good at optimizing) team.

Any game that appears on the Xbox One could be put on the Switch. Any of them.

So when they don’t, it’s not because it’s impossible, it’s because they don’t think there is demand for certain type of games on a Nintendo portable to make the effort worth the extra porting.

And the sales of these big multiplats that do make a Switch port actually support that theory that it’s not worth diverting resources to. Just let those resources focus on ps/Xbox/pc which promise better returns on investments.

A much more powerful Switch hardware won’t change this equation. It will still get the same type of support it has always gotten.



My argument is that the Switch platform has the best 3rd party support of any Nintendo system ever. And people have noticed that.

So…the type of big multiplats that it hasn’t been getting in the last 6 years, it’s perfectly OK if it still doesn’t get those games in the next 6 years.

No one should be under the illusion that this new powered model will get any kind of new support that it hasn’t already gotten.
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I would argue that, knowing what we know, it should be far, far easier to port games from Gen 8 and 9 to NG Switch than it was Gens 7 and 8 to Switch. Making it likely cheaper to do so, and thus, likely meaning companies could see a better return on investment. Even if the audience isn't as "there" as they'd like, they'd rather make some money than no money.
 
Concernt said:
To be fair, their 2016 games like Sun and Moon, Color Splash, etc. didn't stop them revealing Switch.
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Sun and Moon was Pokémon so it didn't really matter what else was going on at the time. It was going to generate buzz and sell.

Color Splash was always DOA. It had a low-key reveal and constant negative talk online from older Paper Mario fans. Not to mention the Wii U itself was halfway in the grave at that point. Nintendo did not care if the Switch reveal took away attention from it. In fact, they were probably glad.
 
Concernt said:
The best selling was the OG, and the worst selling was the standard issue New (non-XL, non-2D). However...

Over my time with 3DS systems, I had a 3DS, New 3DS XL, a New 3DS (non-XL) and a New 2DS XL. I also got to try the original 2DS. My opinion? The 2DS XL IS one of the best models. It's more comfortable and compact than New 3DS XL, while being less scratch prone. It's fairly serviceable and doesn't require a screw removed to change the SD card. It's comfortable, has the "NEW" processor, and had a decent price. I think the standard New 3DS was the best all-rounder, super compact, decent battery life, plenty fast, extremely pretty, peak DS, but I think the New 2DS is superior to the New 3DS XL in almost every way.
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I disagree immensely as I find it to be the flimsiest model, I don't really like its design, the audio setup compared to all other 3DS consoles is very shite, the built-in audio jack is terrible and the speaker placement is horrible, i dont replace my SD card often enough to really care about the lack of a flap in the other models, tbh but i get why it would be an issue, it is intially very annoying i will give it that, the screen is also one of the worst of all the models due to how the pixels are laid out and what not, its not cheap enough to really justify the cuts compared to the new 3ds or new 3ds xl, i just think its such a shitty revision tbh, i dont like how thin the top is either, it may be more scratch resistant but god i feel like its on the verge of breaking and i hate it
 
AshiodyneFX said:
I disagree immensely as I find it to be the flimsiest model, I don't really like its design, the audio setup compared to all other 3DS consoles is very shite, the built-in audio jack is terrible and the speaker placement is horrible, i dont replace my SD card often enough to really care about the lack of a flap in the other models, tbh but i get why it would be an issue, it is intially very annoying i will give it that, the screen is also one of the worst of all the models due to how the pixels are laid out and what not, its not cheap enough to really justify the cuts compared to the new 3ds or new 3ds xl, i just think its such a shitty revision tbh, i dont like how thin the top is either, it may be more scratch resistant but god i feel like its on the verge of breaking and i hate it
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That's totally fair! I'm a total tinkerer with big hands, so I really enjoy using it for one reason or another. The matte finish in the inside and the textured outside in the lid just agree with my fingers.

Do you agree that the New 3DS (non-XL) was the best overall, as regards design?
 
YolkFolk said:
It’s going to be huge tbh. If Nintendo make enough units it will probably be the fastest selling games system of all time. Not saying it will outsell the Switch since tech in terms of the cloud/streaming on mobile will evolve further and lead to greater alternatives, but I do think we’ll be looking at a 100m+ selling device.
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I agree it will sell out at launch (what new enthusiast tech hasn’t done this in the last 5 years. Especially with the scalping market)

I don’t agree with your lifetime number. Unless you think Nintendo will stop producing the Lite, the 2019 hybrid, and the OLED when the new Switch launches.

And if you are expecting this new model to be the only Nintendo console for another 7 years.


I don’t think ‘big third party support’ is a must either. It will be successful with third party support on the level of the current Switch.
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Definitely agree.

I do think though that we’ll see heavy hitters from third parties earlier on in the new system’s life since these companies felt like they missed the boat when the original Switch launched as not many people expected it to be a big success. Games like Street Fighter 6 and Resident Evil 4 remake would be great year one titles…
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Just curious, what publishers felt they “missed the boat” and what did they end up putting on the Switch in its later life?
 
TheMindOfThomas said:
Sun and Moon was Pokémon so it didn't really matter what else was going on at the time. It was going to generate buzz and sell.

Color Splash was always DOA. It had a low-key reveal and constant negative talk online from older Paper Mario fans. Not to mention the Wii U itself was halfway in the grave at that point. Nintendo did not care if the Switch reveal took away attention from it. In fact, they were probably glad.
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Nobody likes their games to underperform. Not even the Stinky Horse. 🙂

For what it's worth, Color Splash is my favourite Paper Mario game. Though that could easily change, as the only Paper Mario game I HAVEN'T played is Thousand Year Door. Or it might not change, on account of me not being big on RPGs!

Give me that TTYDHD right into my veins ASAP either way.
 
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Concernt said:
That's totally fair! I'm a total tinkerer with big hands, so I really enjoy using it for one reason or another. The matte finish in the inside and the textured outside in the lid just agree with my fingers.

Do you agree that the New 3DS (non-XL) was the best overall, as regards design?
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My hands are a bit on the larger side but yeah I think the New 3DS non-XL is not only the best model of 3ds, but the best Nintendo handheld console, period.
it's a lot faster to navigate than OG, the PPI is a lot nicer than the XL models even if they are more agreeable to my hands, and the face tracking makes 3d actually useable and best of all. IT HAS STEREO SOUND, unlike some ahem certain other consoles.
also, i like how it looks a lot more than the others it just feels correct, especially with the face plates
 
@ZachyCatGames

It's not exactly secure, but YouTube leeches have been known to make videos from content here, so we use HIDE tags for anything that might stir up more attention than we like. But obviously, it's a public forum. Just as an FYI
 
oldpuck said:
I think they'll want to hold any revisions till they need to reinvigorate the flagging line, as they've done in the past. Especially if there is cross-gen, keeping the existing Lite around for another couple years makes sense to me.
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That would make more sense, yeah.
BDGAME said:
Ins't Lite the worse device in selling? Why would they want to try that again?
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Lite still sold 20M+. It's also a tradition of Nintendo ever since the GBA SP to release a new and revised hardware/cheaper hardware to accompany/closer to new Pokémon mainline launch, usually targeting the kids or (in the case of Switch Lite) the public that wants a cheaper portable experience.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
The hardware wasn't just handed down to them from Zeus. If continuing development primarily on the old machine while allowing it to look better on the new machine was something they wanted, they could've made it happen. Yet they have repeatedly chosen not to. And Wii and Wii U were very much built on the shoulders of their predecessors.
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This is irrelevant to what the discussion was. The bottom line was that the systems you mentioned Nintendo chose to break away from the previous hardware in terms of software development and future services. Even accounts.

And this new hardware isn’t doing any of that.


TOTK is maybe one of the better examples against this, I think. In a weirder world, a lot of Switch games still could've functioned as simultaneous Wii U releases. But TOTK is an example of building onto a Wii U release so much that a Wii U version would no longer be feasible. Easy easy to imagine the same happening for the next game, even if they didn't change graphical complexity much.
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Define “feasible” :p

But yea my argument was that Wii U —-> Switch is different architecture. Not a big power gap, but a decent architectural one. There is extra work to port a Wii U developed game to the Switch. And vice versa.

Switch —-> Drake is the same architecture. With a much wider power gap. But the power gap is specifically designed to take the same exact software development used for the current Switch models and run them on the new hardware and let DLSS make it a locked resolution to match the screen being used.

And that extra power left over after this is used to have a locked, steady performance. And to push graphic IQ higher.

But it’s going to run the exact same game.

Which is different from the previous Nintendo system breaks you mentioned.
 
AshiodyneFX said:
My hands are a bit on the larger side but yeah I think the New 3DS non-XL is not only the best model of 3ds, but the best Nintendo handheld console, period.
it's a lot faster to navigate than OG, the PPI is a lot nicer than the XL models even if they are more agreeable to my hands, and the face tracking makes 3d actually useable and best of all. IT HAS STEREO SOUND, unlike some ahem certain other consoles.
also, i like how it looks a lot more than the others it just feels correct, especially with the face plates
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Yep, I agree.

It's weird, OLED Model is my favourite console from an all-rounder, quantitative point of view.

But personal preference? Definitely the New Nintendo 3DS.
 
Concernt said:
Yep, I agree.

It's weird, OLED Model is my favourite console from an all-rounder, quantitative point of view.

But personal preference? Definitely the New Nintendo 3DS.
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The oled is still held back by joy cons, an extremely barebones OS, etc, so i cant in good faith place it above the 3DS family, its very close based on the quality of the games and the solid nature of the build and screen i would put it above OG 3DS and 2ds xl but below the rest of those consoles, maybe i would like it more if i owned one instead of trying it out for a couple of hours at a friend's place. too broke to upgrade from erista
 
ronf said:
Within-24-hours-of-the-First-Tuesday-in-July-Following-Independence-Day-in-the-US-#Team23 theory:
Wednesday, July 10th, 2019: Switch Lite Announced
Tuesday, July 6th, 2021: Switch OLED Model Announced
Tuesday or Wednesday, July 11th or 12th, 2023: ???
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Mario Kart Wave 5 DLC comes out on the 12th.
 
My Tulpa said:
I agree it will sell out at launch (what new enthusiast tech hasn’t done this in the last 5 years. Especially with the scalping market)

I don’t agree with your lifetime number. Unless you think Nintendo will stop producing the Lite, the 2019 hybrid, and the OLED when the new Switch launches.
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Switch will slowly fade away just like any other previous generation. Imagine they’ll do ok just like past Playstation consoles do for a couple of years but the big sales will be with Switch 2…..at least when stock allows!

No different to the PS5 potentially selling 100m despite the PS4 and PS4 Pro still being available and with some big releases.
 
Lancelot said:
And Switch can already barely run it as it is, let's not ignore the million framedrops... Whatever next gen exclusive Nintendo makes for Drake will make it look insanely primitive, and will NOT get ported at all.
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Which is why the upgraded Switch exists.

To make games like ToTK look and run optimal. I mean, BotW in 2017 when the system launched wasn’t even “optimal” lol.

So yea, a better hybrid solution was wanted day 1. Now we are going to get it. But I would argue it’s all about making games like ToTK run optimally over the next 5 years or so. Nothing much more than that.

Computionally speaking, this is a ludicrous jump that rivals the likes of leaving PS3 for a PS4 without its biggest bottlenecks like CPU while bringing dedicated hardware to the table, not counting docked mode. The 6x GPU figures alone are already huge by themselves, but when you remember Ampere tflops basically play at a different league... Pretending the Switch will be able to run any of its exclusives to begin with is ridiculous, especially if DLSS and raytracing is already a factor day one.
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6xGPU yes…but we mustn’t forget the 15w and the extremely conservative clocks it will have.

Then we are asking it to DLSS upscaling on top of that.

I just don’t think this tech is going to be used by Nintendo as people think they will.

I don’t see why Nintendo would put some big Nintendo game as an exclusive on it. Maybe a niche title that utilizes the tech in some unique way for gameplay that the current models can’t…sure. But other than that?

Even their most ambitious “ToTK type” game 5 years from now, it will still be a game that they want to run optimally with a bit snazzier graphics on the new hardware but run “sub optimally” on the other models how ToTK does now.
 
My Tulpa said:
Their FY2023 report says 80% of those software sales are 1st party.

Yes, that 20% is always important to have as well, but it’s clear it can just be the lower budget, indie, AA, games that target mobile platforms.

AAA 3rd party multiplats that target next gen hardware usage don’t affect Nintendo success at all. So when I hear people saying Nintendo “needs” to target the big “current gen” multiplat support…I will always ask “but why”

Again, Sony will show 80-85% of their software sales last year was 3rd party. Much of that being the bigger ones that want to show off what new hardware does. Sony obviously wants to keep that and cater to it. Otherwise they lose a majority portion of their revenue.
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I was talking more about the narrative the Switch has and not the actual sales. Nintendo needs third parties to get people into their eco system. (of course it‘s not the only way).
My Tulpa said:
I argue it’s always possible.

The Witcher 3 on the Switch proves this. It was relatively cheap to port, with a relatively small (yet very good at optimizing) team.
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That was not my point though. I mean you could probably develop a port of most PS4 games (especially those which released without the PS4 Pro in mind because late gen PS4 games run also bad on PS4) within 12 months like the Witcher 3. But the past 2 years showed that the Switch is obviously falling more behind and ports like these become less realistic. I mean you would probably need to create a new version of FF16 to get that game running on Switch. Also a good example is GTAV. Why should they invest time and money to port the game to the Switch (even if it’s just the single player) when they can make much more money by developing the next GTA online expansion (which would be really difficult to have the Switch constantly updated with the other versions).

And at some point even Epic will not see it feasible to update Fortnite on Switch. Also Minecraft Switch is currently the worst version that still gets updated.

My Tulpa said:
A much more powerful Switch hardware won’t change this equation. It will still get the same type of support it has always gotten.
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I don‘t think so. Many games get possible on a more powerful platform with much less porting effort. I mean you will not need like an extra version of EA football and if an AA publisher wants to try how well their games sell on a Nintendo platform it‘s much less of a risk. A developer can be lazier with a more powerful hardware.

Though don‘t get me wrong, overall I agree with you. The next Nintendo console will not suddenly be this magic Multiplattform console, first party games will always be the most important selling point for a Nintendo Console.
 
BDGAME said:
Ins't Lite the worse device in selling? Why would they want to try that again?
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The Lite helps the Switch line in two ways.

Firstly, there are the people who might not buy a standard Switch, but would buy a Lite - e.g. secondary Switches for kids.

Secondly, the availability of Lites may help increase standard Switch sales. There are people who might be tempted to consider paying $AU300 for a Lite and then get upsold for an extra AU$100 for a standard Switch for its extra features, when they may not have been willing to consider AU$400 upfront. It also increases the perceived value of the standard Switch to be only a bit more expensive than the Lite but offer much more flexibility.

Basically, having a budget option in the range can increase sales in less direct ways, in the same way as the very cheap and very expensive wines on a restaurant menu may enhance the perceived value of the midrange options.

(Priced are rounded in AU$ because I'm too lazy to google what they are in the US.)
 
My Tulpa said:
I just don’t think this tech is going to be used by Nintendo as people think they will.

I don’t see why Nintendo would put some big Nintendo game as an exclusive on it. Maybe a niche title that utilizes the tech in some unique way for gameplay that the current models can’t…sure. But other than that?

Even their most ambitious “ToTK type” game 5 years from now, it will still be a game that they want to run optimally with a bit snazzier graphics on the new hardware but run “sub optimally” on the other models how ToTK does now.
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that makes zero sense, if that were the case why would they bother investing in a GPU architecture that is 5 generations ahead and will create challenges in implementing BC and have an at minimum 6x power jump in terms of raw power and then wait THIS long to release it? it just makes very little sense.

if that was their goal they would repackage the X1+ with 6/8GBs of RAM, clock it up to 38.4-51.2GBs, put in a larger battery and have released it 2 years ago if not longer ago. it would be alot cheaper, alot easier, alot simpler.

the switch is a console, not a pc, not a phone, it will get a clean break next gen successor just like every nintendo console before it, the time for revisions and simple more powerful models is over.
 
snorkellingfish said:
The Lite helps the Switch line in two ways.

Firstly, there are the people who might not buy a standard Switch, but would buy a Lite - e.g. secondary Switches for kids.

Secondly, the availability of Lites may help increase standard Switch sales. There are people who might be tempted to consider paying $AU300 for a Lite and then get upsold for an extra AU$100 for a standard Switch for its extra features, when they may not have been willing to consider AU$400 upfront. It also increases the perceived value of the standard Switch to be only a bit more expensive than the Lite but offer much more flexibility.

Basically, having a budget option in the range can increase sales in less direct ways, in the same way as the very cheap and very expensive wines on a restaurant menu may enhance the perceived value of the midrange options.

(Priced are rounded in AU$ because I'm too lazy to google what they are in the US.)
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199.99, 299.99, 349.99 (US pricing)
also yeah agree with all of the above, its a typical pricing ladder, plus the lite is very good at targetting house holds with multiple kids that may not wanna share
 
AshiodyneFX said:
that makes zero sense, if that were the case why would they bother investing in a GPU architecture that is 5 generations ahead and will create challenges in implementing BC and have an at minimum 6x power jump in terms of raw power and then wait THIS long to release it? it just makes very little sense.

if that was their goal they would repackage the X1+ with 6/8GBs of RAM, clock it up to 38.4-51.2GBs, put in a larger battery and have released it 2 years ago if not longer ago. it would be alot cheaper, alot easier, alot simpler.

the switch is a console, not a pc, not a phone, it will get a clean break next gen successor just like every nintendo console before it, the time for revisions and simple more powerful models is over.
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Depends on what you describe as "clean break". I think Xbox Series X|S is again the closest point of comparison. The same OS, but better. The same... "Platform" but better. A drop in replacement that's... Better. But also a new generation.
 
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