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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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mjayer said:
"Lack of leaks"

You guys we've had more leaks than ever. What are you people talking about?

Nintendo has crazy NDA's and is very lawsuit happy with this stuff. On top of that they are super secretive and don't tell people what their doing, even other big partners.
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is this about my post? i said, lack of strong leaks. We haven't seen another bloomberg/eurogamer tier leak that we can hang all the other leaks on.
 
Goodtwin said:
Im not convinced. Leaks almost always come from western developers. Again, with Drake specs, how long do we really think it would take Ubisoft or 2K to port a few PS4 games? If they were to do the ports in house with a decent size team, maybe a few months?
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this is just cutting off your nose in spite of your face. you want to risk more important titles than the majority of Japanese output because you're scare of some leaks? Nintendo been down that road before. it doesn't end up well for them
 
Dekuman said:
is this about my post? i said, lack of strong leaks. We haven't seen another bloomberg/eurogamer tier leak that we can hang all the other leaks on.
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Wasn't that last type of leak from Mochizuki? The one that Nintendo went out of it's way to deny? I know it's been said a bunch in this thread already, but maybe that snafu scared those outlets off from further pursuing that type of coverage. It might also be why insiders haven't heard or said anything. Not even Nate can seem to get a hold of anything concrete and has had to rely on speculation; and while I'm still looking at a 2023 release, he might be onto something. We might very well not see Drake for another two and a half years.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
The point of my post is to highlight that having a dependence on the leaks for claiming 2024 is not looking at it right. :p

It could be late 2025 because you haven’t had any leaks for a system that is supposedly as many have said, due for 2024.

Just like there’s nothing for 2023, there’s literally nothing for 2024. We know more about timings for a supposed Ps5 Pro than a Nintendo switch 2, and an early 2025 makes no sense as they don’t target H1, they target H2 for their releases with hardware. They only go H1 if they are pushed to do so.

It can very much be a late 2025 console.


:p
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Sure, but it certainly seems less likely.

This is a dumb strawman.
 
ILikeFeet said:
this is just cutting off your nose in spite of your face. you want to risk more important titles than the majority of Japanese output because you're scare of some leaks? Nintendo been down that road before. it doesn't end up well for them
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To be fair, Nintendo is top dog in Japan, so I can see why they would prioritize Japanese third-parties, they have a safety net in place. They'll still get those dev kits and those games will come in due time, it's not like the Wii U, where relationships with western developers were strained. Of course, this is all under the assumption that they don't have dev kits and that they won't let that info leak. It's still possible that Nintendo has cracked down on any leaks through NDA's, but only time will tell.
 
D36 said:
To be fair, Nintendo is top dog in Japan, so I can see why they would prioritize Japanese third-parties, they have a safety net in place. They'll still get those dev kits and those games will come in due time, it's not like the Wii U, where relationships with western developers were strained. Of course, this is all under the assumption that they don't have dev kits and that they won't let that info leak. It's still possible that Nintendo has cracked down on any leaks through NDA's, but only time will tell.
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I can see that, but I feel like the roles have reversed this time. with Sega, Capcom, and Bandai Namco putting less emphasis on Nintendo, there's not as many original "big games" for their systems out of japan. meanwhile, the likes of Embracer, Bethesda, Warner Bros have shown love for the system that Nintendo can tap into (maybe not Bethesda though). Mortal Kombat 12 has been teased and that would be an easy get for Drake. Cyberpunk for the same reason. I get the feeling that things might have been better patched with Activision despite the MS deal shenanigans, but that's a wait and see
 
Could we be in a gameboy to GBA situation where internally Nintendo tried a couple times to get a successor together but just couldn't get it right. I know they put out the Color but that felt like a compromise.
 
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chocolate_supra said:
I would be seriously pissed off

And then I would do it
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lmaoo same heere hahahaha shouts anti-consumer as he gives his credit card info

Soralink91 said:
Could we be in a gameboy to GBA situation where internally Nintendo tried a couple times to get a successor together but just could get it right. I know they put out the Color but that felt like a compromise.
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I understand your suggestion, but, what’s not to get right about a Switch successor?
 
I don't see 2025 as an option at all if Drake is still the SoC. Even if they'd delayed it so they could fab it on TSMCs 4N node, by late 2024 Blackwell would be out, presumably on a more advanced node, and 4N's twilight would be taken up producing Thor. If Drake isn't in full production by then, then Drake's been cancelled.
 
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ziggyrivers said:
lmaoo same heere hahahaha shouts anti-consumer as he gives his credit card info


I understand your suggestion, but, what’s not to get right about a Switch successor?
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Who knows price may be higher than they are comfortable with selling. It sounds like something was cooking for late 2022 or early 2023 but here we are with nothing and the trail went cold.

Also I think with the Switch being so successful they feel they need to get everything perfect for the next step. It is not going to be easy to repeat the Switch success and Nintendo has a history of falling off the mountain.
 
It’s either what I presented before, nothing until 2025.


OR, or, or… as I said, people are too scared to talk or Nintendo do has it more locked this time.
 
Instro said:
Well it's May, and there's been no real indication that anything is happening on the hardware front. So either you believe that Nintendo has kept an amazing lid on all of this, which is almost impossible to believe at this point as dev kits would have been with 3rd parties and lower level devs for a long time now. Similarly launch games should be in some level of QA at this point, which should also be a typical point of leaks.

The FY briefing should help confirm what is going on, but at this point I feel much safer assuming that hardware more than 12 months out. I mean we were able to get leaks about the Lite and OLED models in their respective years by now, and those were just minor refreshes that required no dev kits to be sent out, and anything else that would be happening in conjunction with a new gen console. I'm personally leaving a small window open for a first half 24 launch, but I'll be closing that if nothing meaningful is said before/at the FY briefing.
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I get why you think soon is unlikely, but 12+ months based on that seems like a lot. That seems equivalent to thinking March 2017 Switch is unlikely because we didn't have many leaks by February 2016.
TonyBaduy said:
I know, but imagine having 20 Wii (only counting those that used 4.7GB disks) games on the service after 4 years... that'd eat a good chunk of the internal storage.
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
Yes but I wonder if they can compress it to reduce it and take advantage of decompression when needed for those Wii and GCN games to be smaller.
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FWIW, of the dozens of disc rips I have (and ignoring things like demo discs and Super Mario All-Stars) in a lossless compressed format directly usable by Dolphin, my GameCube games average 0.9 GB and Wii games 1.9 GB. If they actually wanted to a do a GCN and/or Wii library using only first party games unlikely to be rereleased on their own, and additionally set a size limit like 500MB per game... well it wouldn't leave a big library, but it wouldn't be 0.
D36 said:
Wait, isn't software also going down, at least on average? I guess it's more of a case that the evergreen titles are hitting a plateau, we've already gotten the quintessentials and Mario Kart 8 can only go so far, even with DLC.
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Software sales have been pretty flat for the last 2+ years, though numbers we see in a few days may change that. From late 2020 through late 2022, the answer to how much Switch software shipped in the previous four quarters has been "somewhere in the range of 221-237 million".
 
Soralink91 said:
Also I think with the Switch being so successful they feel they need to get everything perfect for the next step. It is not going to be easy to repeat the Switch success and Nintendo has a history of falling off the mountain.
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Isn’t “a more powerful Switch” just enough? I don’t think the Switch is hard to replicate. The main attraction as home console gaming in the go and the seamless transition of just grabbing the console and going out. That’s easy to replicate. They can do like the OLED: make QoL changes that make the experience better
 
Kingpin Rogers said:
Part of me still thinks late 2024 to 2025 is most likely since that's still what Nate is saying and I don't think he'd be saying that unless he had reason to.
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That's where I am. Nintendo needs to hype this thing up for a whole year long, starting with early in the year, launching in late fall. In 2024. Everyone's forgetting about how Nintendo started teasing Switch with NX mention years ago. The upcoming console was confirmed and Nintendo kept teasing it. For the successor, Nintendo might need a whole year to ramp up some hype in the mainstream crowd.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Isn’t “a more powerful Switch” just enough? I don’t think the Switch is hard to replicate. The main attraction as home console gaming in the go and the seamless transition of just grabbing the console and going out. That’s easy to replicate. They can do like the OLED: make QoL changes that make the experience better
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I agree and that's all I want. It seems simple on the surface, but who knows how much more power is right and they have to get the price right. Console transitions have historically not been as easy for Nintendo as has for Sony. Unfortunately power may not be enough of a reason for Nintendo to upgrade they may want another "Gimmick" to go along with it. Nintendo can be a tough one to predict sometimes. Time will tell.
 
TSR3 said:
I don't see 2025 as an option at all if Drake is still the SoC. Even if they'd delayed it so they could fab it on TSMCs 4N node, by late 2024 Blackwell would be out, presumably on a more advanced node, and 4N's twilight would be taken up producing Thor. If Drake isn't in full production by then, then Drake's been cancelled.
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Thing is, Drake's already been manufactured. So it would be... Extremely odd to suddenly can it after the production line is ready and samples are made, and software is written, and support upstreamed to the Linux kernel, etc.
 
9-Volt said:
That's where I am. Nintendo needs to hype this thing up for a whole year long, starting with early in the year, launching in late fall. In 2024. Everyone's forgetting about how Nintendo started teasing Switch with NX mention years ago. The upcoming console was confirmed and Nintendo kept teasing it. For the successor, Nintendo might need a whole year to ramp up some hype in the mainstream crowd.
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Nobody is forgetting that.

The only reason they announced NX when they did, was to avoid any speculation of them going all mobile. It was announced at the same time as Dena partnership.

Beside that, Wii U was a failed console. It didn't sell at that point.
 
TomNookYankees said:
No new hardware until 2025 would likely mean that nintendo may have considered Drake but ultimate decided against it.
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Nah. Nothing is too old for them and people shouldn’t be surprised by this. They can aim to hold it off if they see fit.

If it does end up like that, that is.

not saying it is, but Drake wouldn’t be too old because that means Nintendo cares deeply about something being really modern. GB used parts from the 70s, and their strength is not in hardware being new, it’s about their IPs and the software with an appealing concept.

Hermii said:
If its as late as you are saying, it's extremely strange that Drake finished last year.
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As I said above.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Nah. Nothing is too old for them and people shouldn’t be surprised by this. They can aim to hold it off if they see fit.

If it does end up like that, that is.

not saying it is, but Drake wouldn’t be too old because that means Nintendo cares deeply about something being really modern. GB used parts from the 70s, and their strength is not in hardware being new, it’s about their IPs and the software with an appealing concept.


As I said above.
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Still, going by a 2022 production schedule for something you plan to release on 2025 is illogical no matter how you look at it. This is a chip made only for one customer.

The TX1 was not made for Nintendo and it was still relatively new.
 
TSR3 said:
I don't see 2025 as an option at all if Drake is still the SoC. Even if they'd delayed it so they could fab it on TSMCs 4N node, by late 2024 Blackwell would be out, presumably on a more advanced node, and 4N's twilight would be taken up producing Thor. If Drake isn't in full production by then, then Drake's been cancelled.
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kopite7kimi mentioned that Blackwell won't use a 3 nm** process node. (I assume kopite7kimi's referring to TSMC's 3 nm** process node since there's an article from the Korea Economic Daily about Nvidia using Samsung's 3 nm** process node.)

** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies
 
Hermii said:
Still, going by a 2022 production schedule for something you plan to release on 2025 is illogical no matter how you look at it. This is a chip made only for one customer.

The TX1 was not made for Nintendo and it was still relatively new.
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If Nintendo is footing the bill, they can foot the bill to stop it until they want it ready for.
 
9-Volt said:
That's where I am. Nintendo needs to hype this thing up for a whole year long, starting with early in the year, launching in late fall. In 2024. Everyone's forgetting about how Nintendo started teasing Switch with NX mention years ago. The upcoming console was confirmed and Nintendo kept teasing it. For the successor, Nintendo might need a whole year to ramp up some hype in the mainstream crowd.
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Nintendo didn't "hype up" NX for a year. They only ever discussed it in front of investors, and the gaming media hyped it up because readers like articles about new hardware. Nintendo started hyping up NX with this tweet, 4 and a half months before Switch released.
 
Z-Z0 said:
All the PS5 Pro information comes from Tom Henderson. A single person out of many who are in the know. If not for him all those other people would just stay tight lipped and we wouldn't know anything about it.
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Tom Henderson isn't a developer or a Sony employee with inside knowledge that he's gleefully reporting publicly, with no consequences. He's a reporter with a decent track record, who confirms reporting, and doesn't burn his sources. So if he's reporting on it, odds are high that multiple people went to him with the information, and that they went to him partially because they knew that, because he has multiple sources, they have plausible deniability as not being the source of the leak.

The more people involved, the harder it is to ensure everyone is tight lipped. So if everyone is tight lipped, perhaps that's because the project isn't far enough along to have lots of folks involved.

Z-Z0 said:
The fact that such a single person hasn't turned up yet for Switch Drake doesn't prove anything about it's release timing.
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You're correct. That doesn't make it an irrelevant data point either.
 
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
I mean, people keep saying software is selling well so no successor is needed now.
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
The point of my post is to highlight that having a dependence on the leaks for claiming 2024 is not looking at it right. :p

It could be late 2025 because you haven’t had any leaks for a system that is supposedly as many have said, due for 2024.

Just like there’s nothing for 2023, there’s literally nothing for 2024. We know more about timings for a supposed Ps5 Pro than a Nintendo switch 2, and an early 2025 makes no sense as they don’t target H1, they target H2 for their releases with hardware. They only go H1 if they are pushed to do so.

It can very much be a late 2025 console.


:p
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You are right, if your in team 2024 because the lack of leaks makes you confident that a 2023 release is off the table, but then why would you be confident about a 2024 release rather than 2025? Its reasonable to assume that with every passing year it becomes more likely for new hardware to arrive, but people have felt that way for almost two years.

Looking at it from the business side of things, many things can be true at the same time. Hardware sales for Switch are still good, but they are declining steadily and the trajectory suggest Switch hardware sales will rapidly decline year over year. If Nintendo makes an average of $50 per Switch sold and they sell 20 million units, that is one billion dollars in profit. Nintendo will not have reached that goal for the previous fiscal year and the following fiscal year will potentially struggle to sell 15 million units, and the following fiscal year 10 million units. Nintendo is on the path to make over half a billion dollars less on hardware sales than they did a couple years ago. Then when we look at software sales, new software titles still tend to sell well, at least first party titles, but those every green titles that have been selling gangbusters year after year are slowing way down, so even with new releases selling well, software sales as a whole are declining rapidly on Switch.
 
Soralink91 said:
Could we be in a gameboy to GBA situation where internally Nintendo tried a couple times to get a successor together but just couldn't get it right. I know they put out the Color but that felt like a compromise.
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Nintendo had GBC as a stop gap when Atlantis wasn't good enough, and even the DS seems more or less ready to go as soon as PSP was announced, right in the middle of GBA's run, so there would always be back-up devices internally they could release.

Not having anything to release because of a failed development would be catastrophic failure of management especially since they on;y have one platform to support now and can't rely on another platform for revenues. I think the more likely scenario is they are just milking the Switch and the leaks we've seen is indeed the successor.
 
D36 said:
Wasn't that last type of leak from Mochizuki? The one that Nintendo went out of it's way to deny? I know it's been said a bunch in this thread already, but maybe that snafu scared those outlets off from further pursuing that type of coverage. It might also be why insiders haven't heard or said anything. Not even Nate can seem to get a hold of anything concrete and has had to rely on speculation; and while I'm still looking at a 2023 release, he might be onto something. We might very well not see Drake for another two and a half years.
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Yes, if Mochi or any business paper like WSJ, Nikkei, etc posts news about a Switch successor going into production, or development ramping up from software houses, even if there is zero details on the device, it would be something more than the 4chan leaks and hearsay we keep seeing.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
I get why you think soon is unlikely, but 12+ months based on that seems like a lot. That seems equivalent to thinking March 2017 Switch is unlikely because we didn't have many leaks by February 2016.
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True, although I don't think that's entirely accurate. Pretty sure if you go back to early 2016 there were reports regarding release dates, production, announcement timing, etc. for the NX. There was a lot of talk and a lot of pointing to October 2016 as the release date. There was a fair amount chatter going on from various journalists and industry people. Much more so than what is currently going on for Nintendo hardware. It definitely got hotter and heavier after the FY briefing that year where they confirmed there release, but it wasn't super quiet in the early part of 2016.

Hermii said:
Developing a custom chip and software for it, cost hundreds of million. It's not something you change your mind on once you're finished.
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I don't really disagree, but this is such a hardline statement to make when we know that this product is going to be almost the entirety of Nintendo's business for the better part of a decade. There's not much margin for error if they mess this up. I think they can and would delay the usage of the chip for a variety of reasons if they felt like they could better position the final product to be successful. Given that we don't know the full impact that COVID, chip shortages, etc., had on Nintendo and their decision making, it's hard to look at the Drake timeline and use that as an end all be all of when Nintendo has to use it.
 
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ziggyrivers said:
Isn’t “a more powerful Switch” just enough? I don’t think the Switch is hard to replicate. The main attraction as home console gaming in the go and the seamless transition of just grabbing the console and going out. That’s easy to replicate. They can do like the OLED: make QoL changes that make the experience better
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You can feel the anxiety in Nintendo's comments. "Unprecedented Territory" and "We look for new ways to delight our customers".

More power has never been "just enough" for Nintendo. Now yes, the leak indicates the [Redacted] is an impressive leap over the current Switch, but Nintendo may be struggling on how to introduce the system in a way that encourages customers to purchase the new device, or at the very least continue to purchase software on their current Switch models.

After their struggles with the SNES, N64, Gamecube, and Wii U who can blame them for being concerned. At least with those system launches they had robust handheld devices to bridge sales gaps.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Isn’t “a more powerful Switch” just enough? I don’t think the Switch is hard to replicate. The main attraction as home console gaming in the go and the seamless transition of just grabbing the console and going out. That’s easy to replicate. They can do like the OLED: make QoL changes that make the experience better
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With streetpass* ^_^
 
Foltzie said:
You can feel the anxiety in Nintendo's comments. "Unprecedented Territory" and "We look for new ways to delight our customers".

More power has never been "just enough" for Nintendo. Now yes, the leak indicates the [Redacted] is an impressive leap over the current Switch, but Nintendo may be struggling on how to introduce the system in a way that encourages customers to purchase the new device, or at the very least continue to purchase software on their current Switch models.

After their struggles with the SNES, N64, Gamecube, and Wii U who can blame them for being concerned. At least with those system launches they had robust handheld devices to bridge sales gaps.
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Good point.

I just wanna play the Megaman Star Force Legacy Collection in 4k 60fps
 
Hosermess said:
Scheduled date for Earnings Release for the fiscal year ending March 2023
Tue. May 9, 2023
www.nintendo.co.jp

Nintendo Co., Ltd. : Investor Relations Information

www.nintendo.co.jp


But most people are just hoping for some pseudo-revealing pseudo-answer in the Q&A that they can read way too much into.
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gaddamn right. i expect people here with way better knowledge to dissect and parse every morsel of information and then twist it to fit my narrative.
That's what i'm here for anyway.
 
oldpuck said:
If you walk the daisy chain of "sloppy reporting based on another sloppy outlet's reporting" it all comes back to a chip leaker who this thread actively performed a debunking operation on, by sending them a false leak and watching them post it immediately. OreXda, the "leaker" in question seems to publish literally anything sent to them, with no verification, and regardless of source.

But even worse, OreXda didn't make the claim that it was due to 5nm capacity issues. That was added by another reporter, simply speculating, which got picked up by other outlets as the rationale. The whole reporting chain comes down to this contextless tweet from a known unreliable source.
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And just as a reminder from OreXda.

:ROFLMAO:
 
Dakhil said:
And just as a reminder from OreXda.

:ROFLMAO:
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“Leakers” literally being wrong, you love to see it.

images
 
Thraktor said:
Nintendo didn't "hype up" NX for a year. They only ever discussed it in front of investors, and the gaming media hyped it up because readers like articles about new hardware. Nintendo started hyping up NX with this tweet, 4 and a half months before Switch released.
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Yeah, that's what I meant by hyping. Confirming the existence of the next platform. That was enough to drive us crazy. Right now we have none of it.

And that tweet was the last time the name NX mentioned, next day it became Switch. After that everything got much clearer all we had to is wait for the launch. I expect the similar thing for the successor. Confirmation in January, full reveal in June, launch in November.
 
9-Volt said:
Yeah, that's what I meant by hyping. Confirming the existence of the next platform. That was enough to drive us crazy. Right now we have none of it.

And that tweet was the last time the name NX mentioned, next day it became Switch. After that everything got much clearer all we had to is wait for the launch. I expect the similar thing for the successor. Confirmation in January, full reveal in June, launch in November.
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NX was only "revealed" a year in advance in order to quell any concerns that Nintendo was leaving the console space. There's really no need for that sort of press cycle anymore, Nintendo can properly reveal and release Drake within 6 months at minimum.
 
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