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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Look over there said:
CFexpress power draw is... holy shit, it's relatively straight forward, kinda. A few results from casually googling "cfexpress power consumption"...
Delkin Devices lists 2.5 to 3 watts for read. Exascend lists power consumption for their Essential series as "Active < 4.5W". And for one of Innodisk's cards, I see a max of 3.3 watts. So eh, one can probably say 'a few watts' for CFexpress.
...actually, it kinda makes sense, huh? As far as sequential read speed:watt ratio goes, they're kinda in the same ballpark as random pcie gen 3 nvme drives.
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Well, yeah, they literally are random PCIe 3.0 NVMe drives. Type A cards are about half that (this one quotes active power <1.75W). As far as I can tell the CFexpress specification doesn't have strict restrictions when it comes to power draw, as it's basically just "put an NVMe drive in a housing of these dimensions with this pinout". They should support NVMe power states, though, which should allow the host to limit power consumption if necessary.
 
NineTailSage said:
I know we keep discussing the possibilities of the production node Drake could land on but ever since Lovelace launched we have been hearing stories of over saturation of both Ampere and now Lovelace. Nvidia's pre-purchase of capacity on TSMC's 4N and being in the predicament they find themselves in, makes sense to manufacture a product that they can then bring in revenue by selling to Nintendo for Switch 2.

wccftech.com

NVIDIA Limiting GPU Production Due To Excess Inventory, Could Lead To GeForce RTX 40 Price Cuts If Things Don't Improve

Recent reports citing NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 40 price reduction and limited production may be due to excess inventories.
wccftech.com wccftech.com
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I'd love to know the details of the Arete research report that they are quoting the 220 days inventory from, and if it is referring explicitly to GPUs, specifically RTX 4000 series GPUs, or if it refers to all Nvidia products (so including RTX 3000, and enterprise GPU accelerators). Because as far as I can tell, despite hiccups in the gamer market, Nvidia are going gang-busters in the enterprise and are riding this years ChatGPT wave ...

 
Concernt said:
Oh my god. Nintendo Switch ray tracing.


As this is hardware speculation I must point out that the next Switch will have hardware RT, and I wonder if this isn't a slip-up from Unity, where they mean the "Nintendo Switch platform", which includes a new, RT capable unit. Or if it's giving developers the tools to prepare a game for Switch to take advantage of Switch 2 features.

Who knows.
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The wording makes it likely mean “tools for lighting effects such as [example of popular lighting effect] for [list of currently popular consoles to develop for].”
 
Dakhil said:
I think that depends on how well Tears of the Kingdom sells, because unlike Sony and Microsoft games, Nintendo games very rarely have price cuts.
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True. Plus they’re heavily promoting the $100 eShop voucher.

Tentacle-tropes said:
I doubt it. Their biggest hitters will most likely be under that price tag.
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Good point. Maybe their bigger IPs, Zelda, Mario and Pokemon will have that price point. Maybe spinoff titles will be $59.99

ReddDreadtheLead said:
Regardless, if people believe it’s this year, it’ll be announced this year. If people believe it’s early next year… it’ll be announced this year.

If it’s not early next year, it’s not going to get announced this year at all. They aren’t going to announce a system right after the holiday shopping.
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Good point.

RennanNT said:
TotK is the same €69 as BotW in Europe and just a bit higher in JP (¥7678 -> ¥7900) but still bellow Xenoblade 2/3 (¥8700).

Then we have Metroid Prime for $40, Switch Sports for $50 and Pikmin will be $60.

IMO, instead of bumping the standard price to $70, they're getting ride of the "standard price" for games in America and pricing their games on a case by case basis like they do in EU and JP already. So I'm expecting more $70 games ahead but also more $40 and $50 games.
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That’s interesting. Thanks for the clarification.

LukasManak22 said:
No need for more leaks yet when the system is coming in 2024.
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:<
 
LukasManak22 said:
No need for more leaks yet when the system is coming in 2024.
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At this point, if it's coming out next year, I feel like it'd be during the Holidays. Early 2024 sounds like a logistics nightmare; it wouldn't be a good idea to announce it during Fall 2023, as it could eat into what little sales that the Switch needs during this decline period and a January release would be way too small of a turnaround (assuming it would launch in March), not to mention, you'd be announcing it right after the Holidays. If Drake is coming out 2H 2024, one can only hope that Nintendo has a consistent stream of software that will entice more people to buy Switch, but the decline will still be even worse by then.
 
D36 said:
it wouldn't be a good idea to announce it during Fall 2023, as it could eat into what little sales that the Switch needs during this decline period and a January release would be way too small of a turnaround (assuming it would launch in March)
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DS holiday quarter went from 11.65 mi in 2009 to 9.01 mi in 2010, so a 2.64 mi in decline (with an unknown part of it being natural decline).

PS4 launched on a holiday quarter with 4.2 mi shipped, PS5 same but with 4.5 mi.

Switch sold 7.23 mi in 2017 holiday quarter thanks to having ironed out all the issues manufacturing get in the first few months. That's ~3 million more units they would have to sell if they waited for a holiday launch. Plus, there would be a lot more hardcore fans competing with people looking for a Xmas gift (and the later is much more likely to change mind by the time there's enough stock).

Getting earlier also affects the 3rd party support on launch window (specially regarding easy cross-gen ports).

So, there's a lot more to it than losing or not 2~3 mi Switch sales on Holiday.
 
Smash Kirby said:
I'm jokingly thinking 2027. Keep the switch train a moving.
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sponge-bob-square-pants.gif
 
D36 said:
At this point, if it's coming out next year, I feel like it'd be during the Holidays. Early 2024 sounds like a logistics nightmare; it wouldn't be a good idea to announce it during Fall 2023, as it could eat into what little sales that the Switch needs during this decline period and a January release would be way too small of a turnaround (assuming it would launch in March), not to mention, you'd be announcing it right after the Holidays. If Drake is coming out 2H 2024, one can only hope that Nintendo has a consistent stream of software that will entice more people to buy Switch, but the decline will still be even worse by then.
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What if the plan was H2 2023 and it releases in March because software was not ready? The same as it was with Switch.
A: There is no change to our thinking about launch timing. When launching hardware, "How much software can customers play?" is important. Launch timing must be based on that. Customers having more money to spend during the holiday season is one big factor in starting then. But our integrated hardware/software business doesn't end that year, but is something that can continue to be played for several years so we think that "releasing something proper" is the most important thing. By that, we don't think "holiday season timing is a must" but rather that we should launch when we can provide something proper. That point has not changed.
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lattjeful said:
You're a sadist. You want this thread to talk in circles again for another year?
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I mean, as this system is released the speculation is not gonna be gone. We will wait for it's release when someone does a teardown and like a 1.5 years after that the talk will start about revisions and PRO version.
 
LukasManak22 said:
What if the plan was H2 2023 and it releases in March because software was not ready? The same as it was with Switch.


I mean, as this system is released the speculation is not gonna be gone. We will wait for it's release when someone does a teardown and like a 1.5 years after that the talk will start about revisions and PRO version.
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With the Switch, they could afford to gut the Wii U's Holiday because it was a failure. I know they said that Holiday isn't a must, but I would believe that it would still be their biggest priority right now.
 
LukasManak22 said:
I mean, as this system is released the speculation is not gonna be gone. We will wait for it's release when someone does a teardown and like a 1.5 years after that the talk will start about revisions and PRO version.
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Yeah speculation isn't going to stop, but we'll at least have things to talk about when this thing comes out.
 
ziggyrivers said:
www.tweaktown.com

New $69.99 price may negatively impact PS5 game unit sales, data suggests

Reports indicate that PlayStation users are buying less games, and Sony's data suggests that higher costs are a reason why unit sales have dropped.
www.tweaktown.com www.tweaktown.com
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HockeyBird said:
I don't think this is a particularly well done analysis. There are multiple factors that as to why software sales are down like the overall the state of the economy for example. For Modern Warfare 2 specifically, it looks like the reception to the game hasn't been as strong as they hoped and players are dropping the game faster than previous COD titles.
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Agreed that the article isn't to be taken seriously. It's a little OT so I'll keep this succinct:
  • Yes, the FY22 software units were lower than FY20 and FY21, but those years were pandemic-juiced. It's extremely simplistic to attribute that to the $70 price.
  • FY22 unit sales actually did better than FY19. If we follow the author's faulty logic, one may argue that the price hike increased the sales.
  • According to Sony, FY22's 1st party software sales exceeded FY21. It was the 3rd party sales dragging the number down. Again, you can't pin this on the price tag.
  • Despite the lowered unit sales, the FY22 sales revenue was higher than FY21. So the higher price in fact worked?
  • To truly understand the impacts of price hike, we need to break down sales numbers by price/margin, PS5/PS4, and region/exchange rate.
  • Fundamentally, comparing software sales performance YOY is unwise, because each year different game titles were introduced.
It almost looks like the author came up with a title that guarantees to get clicks/shares, and assembled some random data to fit. Looking at how widely the article is circulated on gaming social media, it shows how easy it is for influencers/politicians/profiteers to appeal to people's confirmation bias.
 
From the quick and rounded numbers in my head, 6 games at $70 matches 7 games at $60, which the cooperation will be happy about

On the other hand, the higher prices means less attach rate, since the consumer won't be able to buy as many games.
 
ExoticSpice said:
Is the next gen console going to be a handheld/hybrid like Switch?

or will Nintendo switch(hehe) it up??
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Iwata once said the Switch will be the foundation for future Nintendo HW. Given how it's a monster success, even if they deviate somewhat, I have no doubts it will be a hybrid of some sort. They've already scaled and transitioned all their development pipelines to output on one platform which was my favorite thing about the Switch library.
 
Hermii said:
That's why we need a pro.

To bruteforce more performance out of poorly optimized games
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I was gonna ask that: was it a badly optimized game?

MadMarvainy said:
Iwata once said the Switch will be the foundation for future Nintendo HW. Given how it's a monster success, even if they deviate somewhat, I have no doubts it will be a hybrid of some sort. They've already scaled and transitioned all their development pipelines to output on one platform which was my favorite thing about the Switch library.
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My sentiments exactly. With the current state of the economy and supply chain issues, it’s best they had a single SKU running, rather than two at the same time, unless they’re revisions.
 
TSR3 said:
This is more a question for Team2023 (but Team2024 can of course join in) ….
Would LPDDR5X-7500 RAM make a release in late 2024 worth the wait?
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I'd probably rage. By then, it'd be 1.5 years since Nvidia developed a memory controller than can handle 8533 MT/s. Also by then, 5X manufacturing should be mature enough that 7500 should be in the past.
If anything, I'd say that by late 2024, my goalpost would shift to expecting 5X-8533 MT/s as the baseline, while keeping an eye on SK Hynix's LPDDR5T-9600 MT/s. That was announced this past January, and then there's this interview in February. There must've been some client demand for development 5T to proceed to completion, so I am curious as to what products end up using that.
(...heeeey, maybe Thor uses that, as that's scheduled to arrive before LPDDR6)
ziggyrivers said:
I was gonna ask that: was it a badly optimized game?
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The talk so far is: Yeaaaaaa. Glancing over this, seems to be CPU bound. Moreover, concentrated within only a couple of threads? Like a Crysis, but without the excuse of 'well we couldn't have known the direction of computing at the time!'?
 
Hey everybody, normally I stick to software-themed threads but I want to expand my horizons, lol.

I remember when the Wii U released when I was a kid. I was obsessed with the idea of a new console just because I always wanted something “new”, and was already dying for a successor by 2014 (not because of the lack of Wii U games, but just because of the fact that I thought “new console = cool”).

With Switch, it’s been very different. Six years have passed and I’m still not dying for new hardware. Don’t get me wrong — if something gets shown soon, I’ll be insanely hyped and pick it up day one. It would be so great to have more powerful hardware as the Switch is showing its age and limitations.

But over the last six years, I have pretty much focussed my hype exclusively on new software, barely thinking about new hardware. But I hopped in the thread and did some reading, and it seems like some people think the successor will be released later this year, while others expect 2024. Is this correct? The thought of a new console releasing this holiday season is pretty nuts to me, especially since I’ve paid the concept such little thought over the years. I personally expect we’ll be waiting until 2024.

But now I’m reading that some people think it could be revealed this summer (unless I misread things)! Are there any super-important tidbits of info I should know in order to form speculation on this topic, as someone who’s barely paid it any attention until now?
 
Look over there said:
If anything, I'd say that by late 2024, my goalpost would shift to expecting 5X-8533 MT/s as the baseline, while keeping an eye on SK Hynix's LPDDR5T-9600 MT/s. That was announced this past January, and then there's this interview in February. There must've been some client demand for development 5T to proceed to completion, so I am curious as to what products end up using that.
(...heeeey, maybe Thor uses that, as that's scheduled to arrive before LPDDR6)
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I think that depends on when JEDEC officially adopts LPDDR5T since I expect most companies to wait for JEDEC to officially adopt LPDDR5T before going for LPDDR5T. (I hope sooner than later.)
 
I just got my TOTK OLED, coming from my V2 Switch. I knew the screen was miles better, but I didn't know the build quality was better as well. It feels very premium, the small bezels are great, the kickstand is actually useful and the rounded dock just looks great.

And honestly, I see no way Nintendo can improve on the OLED from a design point of view. At best I can see them release a "Joy-Con Pro" that's slightly more ergonomic or has a d-pad (and no drift of course) but there's really not much to improve on. They could do 1080p I suppose but IMO they really don't have to.

What do you guys think? How will Switch 2 stand out and improve on the OLED form factor?
 
switchum said:
But now I’m reading that some people think it could be revealed this summer (unless I misread things)! Are there any super-important tidbits of info I should know in order to form speculation on this topic, as someone who’s barely paid it any attention until now?
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the only solid info we have are the specs for a chip that's being made for Nintendo. beyond that, it's hearsay and guesses. there are some linux repositories that imply things about timing but nothing explicit
 
switchum said:
Hey everybody, normally I stick to software-themed threads but I want to expand my horizons, lol.

I remember when the Wii U released when I was a kid. I was obsessed with the idea of a new console just because I always wanted something “new”, and was already dying for a successor by 2014 (not because of the lack of Wii U games, but just because of the fact that I thought “new console = cool”).

With Switch, it’s been very different. Six years have passed and I’m still not dying for new hardware. Don’t get me wrong — if something gets shown soon, I’ll be insanely hyped and pick it up day one. It would be so great to have more powerful hardware as the Switch is showing its age and limitations.

But over the last six years, I have pretty much focussed my hype exclusively on new software, barely thinking about new hardware. But I hopped in the thread and did some reading, and it seems like some people think the successor will be released later this year, while others expect 2024. Is this correct? The thought of a new console releasing this holiday season is pretty nuts to me, especially since I’ve paid the concept such little thought over the years. I personally expect we’ll be waiting until 2024.

But now I’m reading that some people think it could be revealed this summer (unless I misread things)! Are there any super-important tidbits of info I should know in order to form speculation on this topic, as someone who’s barely paid it any attention until now?
Click to expand...
IMO 2024 is much more likely, but some people just think 2023 makes more sense.

I agree a successor doesn't feel necessary at this point, even though many games are struggling to perform. 80% of players just won't notice or won't care as long as they can play the latest Pokémon or Mario Kart on the platform they own.

Most of us here just want our favorite games to reach 1080p60fps, but little Jimmy next door just wants to catch his damn Pikachu.

I'm honestly not sure if a "traditional" next generation upgrade is a good idea for Nintendo, they might be better off just going cross platform for their new releases. Just like how PS5 barely has any exclusives and is more of a "premium" way to play PS games.
 
Dakhil said:
Hopefully more diverse colour options. (Perhaps the return of transparent colours?)
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That would be cool, but they could technically do this already. Switch has tons of unique designs already. Maybe the main body can be colored this time around, but I doubt they'll do that because they can sell more joycons if people don't have to worry about matching colors.

There has to be something that makes people go like "oh right, that's a Switch 2, not the old one"
 
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switchum said:
But now I’m reading that some people think it could be revealed this summer (unless I misread things)! Are there any super-important tidbits of info I should know in order to form speculation on this topic, as someone who’s barely paid it any attention until now?
Click to expand...
The first posts in the thread have been frequently updated with some of the major bits of information. And here are a couple of posts I bookmarked for sharing with people, though some of the contents are out of date by now.
 
switchum said:
Hey everybody, normally I stick to software-themed threads but I want to expand my horizons, lol.

I remember when the Wii U released when I was a kid. I was obsessed with the idea of a new console just because I always wanted something “new”, and was already dying for a successor by 2014 (not because of the lack of Wii U games, but just because of the fact that I thought “new console = cool”).

With Switch, it’s been very different. Six years have passed and I’m still not dying for new hardware. Don’t get me wrong — if something gets shown soon, I’ll be insanely hyped and pick it up day one. It would be so great to have more powerful hardware as the Switch is showing its age and limitations.

But over the last six years, I have pretty much focussed my hype exclusively on new software, barely thinking about new hardware. But I hopped in the thread and did some reading, and it seems like some people think the successor will be released later this year, while others expect 2024. Is this correct? The thought of a new console releasing this holiday season is pretty nuts to me, especially since I’ve paid the concept such little thought over the years. I personally expect we’ll be waiting until 2024.

But now I’m reading that some people think it could be revealed this summer (unless I misread things)! Are there any super-important tidbits of info I should know in order to form speculation on this topic, as someone who’s barely paid it any attention until now?
Click to expand...

If the Switch 2 is released this year, it will be the shortest official announcement to reveal in video game console history other than the NES and Xbox One.

If it goes past May with no reveal, it will be the shortest ever other than the NES (which is hard to exactly know when it was announced)

So either Nintendo is strongly bucking history or it's not coming out for a while.
 
Smash Kirby said:
I'm jokingly thinking 2027. Keep the switch train a moving.
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2027 for Nintendo next hardware? what game could still release for Switch until they release they next hardware, in two weeks they gonna release the bigest game, Switch will not survive until 2027, Switch sucessor need to release in early 2024(march/april 2024) at the lastest
 
0
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
If the Switch 2 is released this year, it will be the shortest official announcement to reveal in video game console history other than the NES and Xbox One.

If it goes past May with no reveal, it will be the shortest ever other than the NES (which is hard to exactly know when it was announced)

So either Nintendo is strongly bucking history or it's not coming out for a while.
Click to expand...
Nintendo could anounce the Nintendo Switch sucessor this june/july, for a novembre/dezembre launch/release, we no longer need huge draw out period of marketing for a console reveal and launch.
 
I have a feeling Switch 2 will equal or surpass the OLED in terms of themed versions. The OLED has three themed SKUs:
• Splatoon
• Pokemon
• Zelda

I think one of the first themed Drakes will be Mario themed. If not released within a year of the successor’s release, we’ll see it when the Mario Movie 2 is released
 
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