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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Gerald said:
here you have clocks on Samsung 8nm, 6W in portable mode
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I found the tests. This test you posted is wrong (zombie himself said that). He did it again, and these are the right numbers:

Orin_power_estimations.png

In the test you have posted, he was considering the GPU at 460MHz to get to 1.41TF (but he used the 420MHz power consumption). Aso, he was considering the high load numbers.

Anyway, as you can see in the test in spoiler, 420MHz on the GPU and 1728MHz on the CPU would have a total power draw of 9.8W at high load (versus de 5.9W from that tweet). That would give us 1.29TF.

Even if we consider at medium load, we still have 7.9W (versus 5.9W at high load from the tweet test)

And these are numbers from the SoC only. We were talking about the total system power.



Then the question is if the T239 is manufactured using 4N, what clocks can we expect without having to change the form factor.

People were talking about 660MHz months ago, would it be possible at 4N keeping the same form factor?
 
Kise Ryota said:
I found the tests. This test you posted is wrong (zombie himself said that). He did it again, and these are the right numbers:

Orin_power_estimations.png

In the test you have posted, he was considering the GPU at 460MHz to get to 1.41TF (but he used the 420MHz power consumption). Aso, he was considering the high load numbers.

Anyway, as you can see in the test in spoiler, 420MHz on the GPU and 1728MHz on the CPU would have a total power draw of 9.8W at high load (versus de 5.9W from that tweet). That would give us 1.29TF.

Even if we consider at medium load, we still have 7.9W (versus 5.9W at high load from the tweet test)

And these are numbers from the SoC only. We were talking about the total system power.



Then the question is if the T239 is manufactured using 4N, what clocks can we expect without having to change the form factor.

People were talking about 660MHz months ago, would it be possible at 4N keeping the same form factor?
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with 4N yeah, and we will be have then 2teraflops in portable mode
 
0
D36 said:
Why not?
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robertman2 said:
and they won't because...?
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Machrider said:
I think they will. Not that Nintendo really even needs it.
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Because of these:


Nintendo-20170301-Cartidges.jpg



Being very limited, and CoD being incredibly large, even on low end machines + their inability to properly compress. I also don’t see them starting now.

Though I guess if Nintendo opted for large storage and the package says “you need an SD card” that’s possible to remedy, albeit a cumbersome one.

If this next system even has 8GB at the lowest (for RAM), it would still be an uber large size. Compression can only help so much to a point.


People speculate on 64GB carts, but to be honest those would still be much more expensive than a comparable disc of similar space.


Edit: or they just go full digital for CoD and that’s moot to an extent, but internal storage would be needed for it.
 
Hermii said:
No, not necessarily. They could do that now, on their current system.
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There's a lot of things Nintendo technically could do now to improve the switch OS and online network, but the most likely time for nintendo to make significant changes to their network infrastructure and OS is when they launch new hardware.
 
It’d be cool if the Switch 2’s screen had HDR, black frame insertion, and 120 hz so it could do VRR well.

I imagine some of these features could reduce how long the battery last, but maybe they could be toggled in menus to preserve battery life.

You could save them for when you have plenty of battery to last your short play session, you can plug the Switch 2 to a power source while you game, or dock the Switch 2 to the correct equipped television.

Are there any neat screen tech in particular I didn’t name that would be cool to have?
 
ziggyrivers said:
It could be just a redecoration to make it fully TOTK
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It is a thing that we knew about earlier but the redecoration could likely be unrelated to the private event.
Videos of Nintendo NY's private events were uploaded to the public at a week after it's video was released online, such as The Super Mario Bros. Movie's final direct.
 
BloodMoon said:
ROG Ally at $699 is… less than I thought

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Wait... that's actually a normal laptop-like price. At least, a Dell laptop with the 5825U/16 GB ram/512 GB NVMe SSD has a base price of $699.
...aww, Asus's store does that thing where they show a starting price and you have to go through configuring to see the actual price. But it does seem like the regular price for any Ryzen 7 laptop by Asus would be higher than $699?

(I'm comparing to laptop price, because I take the position that handheld PCs are functionally laptops with a different shell)
 
Look over there said:
Wait... that's actually a normal laptop-like price. At least, a Dell laptop with the 5825U/16 GB ram/512 GB NVMe SSD has a base price of $699.
...aww, Asus's store does that thing where they show a starting price and you have to go through configuring to see the actual price. But it does seem like the regular price for any Ryzen 7 laptop by Asus would be higher than $699?

(I'm comparing to laptop price, because I take the position that handheld PCs are functionally laptops with a different shell)
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Yeah this is a lot cheaper than current gen equivalent Ryzen 7 apu laptops that have been announced so far. The Framework laptop for instance with similar specs is ~1500usd.
 
Back to hardware chat!!
Or well, maybe game performance chat!
So in my mind if this thing comes out and is better than a plain Jane PS4, which honestly it should be, then Nintendo should no longer have any performance issues with any games going forwards (in my opinion).

If the PS4 is capable of games like ghost of Tsushima looking as beautiful as it does and running at 30 fps which I found no problem with when it came out, then with DLSS the “Switch 2” should at least always hit 30 fps and look pretty damn great in most games across the board.

Which is honestly pretty exciting that most Nintendo games going forward can most likely look better than Ghosts of Tsushima and perform at least as well.
Nintendo achieves SO MUCH with the exclusives on their hardware and the art styles they use often times make the games look a lot better than other games made for their stuff and age incredibly well (Wind Waker).

The only team I’m worried about is game freak, but even they should be able to make the new games run well if they still won’t push graphics super hard.
 
Although not explicitly related to Nintendo, I thought this was interesting.
www.qualcomm.com

Introducing Snapdragon Game Super Resolution

Snapdragon Game Super Resolution maximizes mobile game performance and battery life.
www.qualcomm.com www.qualcomm.com
⋮

What is Snapdragon Game Super Resolution (GSR)?​

Snapdragon GSR is a single pass spatial aware super resolution technique developed by the Qualcomm Snapdragon Studios to achieve optimal super scaling quality at the best performance and power savings.
What_is_Snapdragon_Super_Resolution.png

Snapdragon GSR single pass solution is the latest first-to-market feature for mobile and XR gaming. It can be used to maximize gaming performance and battery life on devices with Snapdragon and is currently available for key partners. While compatible with most GPUs, it delivers the best performance on Snapdragon platforms.
⋮
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⋮

How does Snapdragon Game Super Resolution work?​

Snapdragon GSR is a single pass spatial upscaling technique optimized for Snapdragon Adreno graphics processing units (GPUs). It uses range-aware dynamic scaling with customizations for the Adreno GPU pipeline, delivering superior graphics quality and power savings. In general, Snapdragon GSR has two times performance improvement compared to other mobile upscaling solutions.

The following graph (Figure 3) provides insight on the performance of Snapdragon GSR relative to other leading upscaling techniques at various resolution targets:
Snapdragon_GSR_Speed.png

Figure 3: Performance comparison of Snapdragon GSR vs other popular upscaling technique.
⋮
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How is Snapdragon Game Super Resolution so fast on Snapdragon hardware?​

Snapdragon GSR uses as few registers, texture samples, and Arithmetic Logic Unit (ALU) instructions as possible on Adreno hardware. Other upscaling techniques use at least two passes over the input image, which increases bandwidth used by the upscaling process. Snapdragon GSR integrates upscaling and edge sharpening into one pass, reducing latency and memory bus usage thus reducing power consumption and increasing speed. The software's single pass can be combined with other post processing passes, such as tone mapping, to further improve performance.

Beyond using a single pass, Snapdragon GSR uses fewer ALU instructions and texture samples than its competitors, resulting in much better shader processor utilization which results in reduced frame times and less power consumption. Snapdragon GSR uses a 12-kernel window where the luminance calculation is done only with the green (G) channel, since the human eye is most sensitive to this color. Thus, Snapdragon GSR samples only use one component for each pixel calculation and performs a three-component interpolation, totaling only 15 texture instructions — Adreno GPUs can entirely hide the latency of these texture samples, yielding 100% shader processor utilization.

These results are summarized on recent Snapdragon devices:
Snapdragon_GSR_on_Adreno.png

⋮
Click to expand...
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Because of these:


Nintendo-20170301-Cartidges.jpg



Being very limited, and CoD being incredibly large, even on low end machines + their inability to properly compress. I also don’t see them starting now.

Though I guess if Nintendo opted for large storage and the package says “you need an SD card” that’s possible to remedy, albeit a cumbersome one.

If this next system even has 8GB at the lowest (for RAM), it would still be an uber large size. Compression can only help so much to a point.


People speculate on 64GB carts, but to be honest those would still be much more expensive than a comparable disc of similar space.


Edit: or they just go full digital for CoD and that’s moot to an extent, but internal storage would be needed for it.
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They don't have to go full digital. What I think will likely happen is a few scenarios

1. $70 game at launch on a 32GB or 64GB card. I'm not expecting 64GB card at all tbqh. The base game will likely be there, but you'll have to download multiplayer, warzone and other modes, as well as DLC/patches. See below example for xbone:

Modern-Warfare-2-xbox-file-size-1152x1536.jpg


Truth be told.. I don't know what base game means. It's separate from the campaign.


or

2. 16GB cart at $60. Whatever they can fit on the cart. Maybe just the campaign, and have multiplayer modes required download?

3. Full Digital. Maybe even physical boxes liike Wolfeinstein


Note: This game will be a lot smaller size than PS4 or PS5, because of a much faster CPU+ storage and not having to worry about 4k textures like ps5. I'm not even counting the decompression hardware chip on the T239.

I don't see us getting 100GB cod games on Nintendo Switch 2, or at least not anytime soon (like at launch).


Concernt said:
That is not my comment.
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Yeah, that was for the original poster, hanky panky. I quoted you for something... Likely multi quoted people and got yours deleted.

takriel said:
I just hope the Switch 2 will use 2023 hardware and not 2021 hardware.
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That's... not happening. If we're lucky, we might get lppdr5x, but I wouldn't expect any other part of the SOC to be a brand-new tech. . 4nm is not guaranteed for the node either. New tech is expensive. Usually, +2-year-old tech is used.
 
Derilian said:
Back to hardware chat!!
Or well, maybe game performance chat!
So in my mind if this thing comes out and is better than a plain Jane PS4, which honestly it should be, then Nintendo should no longer have any performance issues with any games going forwards (in my opinion).

If the PS4 is capable of games like ghost of Tsushima looking as beautiful as it does and running at 30 fps which I found no problem with when it came out, then with DLSS the “Switch 2” should at least always hit 30 fps and look pretty damn great in most games across the board.

Which is honestly pretty exciting that most Nintendo games going forward can most likely look better than Ghosts of Tsushima and perform at least as well.
Nintendo achieves SO MUCH with the exclusives on their hardware and the art styles they use often times make the games look a lot better than other games made for their stuff and age incredibly well (Wind Waker).

The only team I’m worried about is game freak, but even they should be able to make the new games run well if they still won’t push graphics super hard.
Click to expand...
That's like saying devs should be having problems on Series X or PS5. And we can see how that's going. There will always be problems, somewhere. For example, Advance Wars looks like a game that should be 60fps at all times but isn't.

takriel said:
I just hope the Switch 2 will use 2023 hardware and not 2021 hardware.
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This is a meaningless statement. What does "2023" hardware even mean? How much more performance does it get you over 2021 hardware? Is it cheaper or more expensive?
 
Hajeman said:
Oh no. I thought it's 1 or 2 years old technology likes Tegra X1 (2015 -> 2017)
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Provided it releases this year, the Tegra T239 would be pretty much cutting edge. It's a 15W package with a GPU architecture that's a superset of the RTX30 series GPUs, with some dipping sauces from the 40 series.

That sort of featureset in that tight a TDP will be impressive. It would indeed still be cutting edge. Being one instruction set behind Lovelace isn't really that big a deal with it's customised, and there needs to be SOME way to run the SDK. Lovelace being a superset of the T239 architecture is basically the only way to ensure an SDK can run accurately at full speed, so I wouldn't say it's a knock against it.

Provided it comes out this year, it'll be mighty impressive.
 
takriel said:
I just hope the Switch 2 will use 2023 hardware and not 2021 hardware.
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The 3 big console manufacturers can't afford to use the newest tech because they need to sell their hardware at attractive prices for the consumer, and newer tech is always more expensive than older tech. Aside from Nintendo, both Sony & Microsoft sell their consoles at a loss because of that. Nintendo got a good deal with the X1 chip, because the Shield TV flopped so hard that Nvidia sat on these chips without knowing what to do with them.
 
Thombias said:
The 3 big console manufacturers can't afford to use the newest tech because they need to sell their hardware at attractive prices for the consumer, and newer tech is always more expensive than older tech. Aside from Nintendo, both Sony & Microsoft sell their consoles at a loss because of that. Nintendo got a good deal with the X1 chip, because the Shield TV flopped so hard that Nvidia sat on these chips without knowing what to do with them.
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The Shield TV didn't flop, but the OEM market for the X1 didn't materialise until Nintendo stepped up.

T239 is pretty much as good as it gets for its TDP, and Xbox Series X wasn't too far behind the curve at launch.


Consoles use custom processors, which isn't the same as outdated.
 
TSR3 said:
Based on @Thraktor recent post about how most of Lovelaces improvements over Ampere are just due to being on a faster node, I’ve started thinking that a late 2024 release would not be bad, if it was on TSMC 4N
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I think a 2023 launch on 4N is the most likely (partly due to the availability of the node), but I'm not holding my breath. Ultimately, as long as it lives up to the simulations in the leaks, it'll be a beast. I think even the very well versed people here are underestimating what 3.4TF+RT+DLSS can do.
 
TSR3 said:
Based on @Thraktor recent post about how most of Lovelaces improvements over Ampere are just due to being on a faster node, I’ve started thinking that a late 2024 release would not be bad, if it was on TSMC 4N
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TSMC 4NM is a good half-step-node which really lowers the power needed to run a chip, I have a 4NM-SoC in my phone and it battery life is great. Late 2024 could also be the time needed to make these wafers cheap enough for Nintendo, because I read multiple news-articles last year about how much the price increased for companies like Apple. Apple only build the new chip in their more expensive Pro-iPhones because of that and it is projected they will continue this pattern with their 2023-lineup. TSMC 4N is a Nvidia-Specific-Node used for desktop-class-graphic-cards, also based on 5NM, but also rumored to be more than double the cost of similar Samsung-Nodes. It seems that both options are way too expensive for Nintendo right now.
 
Stefan51278 said:
TSMC 4NM is a good half-step-node which really lowers the power needed to run a chip, I have a 4NM-SoC in my phone and it battery life is great. Late 2024 could also be the time needed to make these wafers cheap enough for Nintendo, because I read multiple news-articles last year about how much the price increased for companies like Apple. Apple only build the new chip in their more expensive Pro-iPhones because of that and it is projected they will continue this pattern with their 2023-lineup. TSMC 4N is a Nvidia-Specific-Node used for desktop-class-graphic-cards, also based on 5NM, but also rumored to be more than double the cost of similar Samsung-Nodes. It seems that both options are way too expensive for Nintendo right now.
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The incredible bulk Nintendo can order on 4N, a node exclusive to their hardware partner, would almost certainly make it viable, cost wise.
 



I think the use of 32GB cartridges was of interest in this thread. It seems to me that it is the 2nd LRG game that uses these cartridges (the first being Doom Eternal, and I don't know if there are any more)


And the price at which the game comes out is not expensive, about $40.
I would say that, despite the fact that there are third parties like 2K that can put you an 8GB game like Code in a Box (eg lego racing), the price of the cartridges is getting cheaper.


Edit. I investigate and is not the second 32GB game by LRG, there are a lot in the last year like KOTOR2 or Outbreak Collection.
 
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Concernt said:
The incredible bulk Nintendo can order on 4N, a node exclusive to their hardware partner, would almost certainly make it viable, cost wise.
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I’m sure I heard something on MLID (I know he’s rated lowly by some people on this thread), where he made a point that TSMC 4N was was cheaper than Samsung 8nm as the die sizes were smaller (for equivalent series GPUs).
 
TSR3 said:
I’m sure I heard something on MLID (I know he’s rated lowly by some people on this thread), where he made a point that TSMC 4N was was cheaper than Samsung 8nm as the die sizes were smaller (for equivalent series GPUs).
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You know, I would find that easy to believe. I wonder if T239's extreme size-cutting measures in the design stage were to get the chip per wafer number super high and use a high density node to further drive down the price.

I'm definitely leaning towards 4N.
 
ExoticSpice said:
Is the next gen console going to be a handheld/hybrid like Switch?

or will Nintendo switch(hehe) it up??
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I think it’ll almost certainly be a hybrid again. What I’m not expecting to change is the single pipeline for games, so even if they were to change it up, I could see the most likely change being just having dedicated hardware models (like the Switch Lite) for portable or home console play closer to launch, if only to sell multiple devices to families more quickly. Even then I think that’s way less likely than just a single core system like the Switch, with hardware variants to follow later.
 
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Concernt said:
The incredible bulk Nintendo can order on 4N, a node exclusive to their hardware partner, would almost certainly make it viable, cost wise.
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Apple buys bigger bulk, but I see your point. I still think 4N would make a launch before the second half of 2024 unlikely. They need to produce a lot of chips for launch and the following months, developers need final Devkits at last half a year before the device ships. I personally would hope for 4N and 16GB of Ram, that would be a monster of a Hybrid console. I heard a rumor someday that Nintendo wants something that can't easily be emulated on a Steamdeck and going for 16GB of Ram would ensure that for a loooong time.
 
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Ojoloco said:



I think the use of 32GB cartridges was of interest in this thread. It seems to me that it is the 2nd LRG game that uses these cartridges (the first being Doom Eternal, and I don't know if there are any more)


And the price at which the game comes out is not expensive, about $40.
I would say that, despite the fact that there are third parties like 2K that can put you an 8GB game like Code in a Box (eg lego racing), the price of the cartridges is getting cheaper.


Edit. I investigate and is not the second 32GB game by LRG, there are a lot in the last year like KOTOR2 or Outbreak Collection.
Click to expand...


I think it is indeed their second 32 GB release after Doom Eternal. Where did you read about KOTOR2 and the Outbreak Collection?

While the size of KOTOR2 on Switch is over the limit (15.9 against ~14.7 effective space on 16GB carts), I've never read a confirmation coming from them. And with the news of DLC not being included, I'm not sure if they will be trying to adapt the size (cut languages, compress audio or whatever) to fit on 16GB carts.

Regarding the Outbreak Collection, that one includes:

Which amounts to ~12.7GB, and there's no need for a 32GB cart. Or are there any other releases I am not aware of?
 
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Stefan51278 said:
Apple buys bigger bulk, but I see your point. I still think 4N would make a launch before the second half of 2024 unlikely. They need to produce a lot of chips for launch and the following months, developers need final Devkits at last half a year before the device ships. I personally would hope for 4N and 16GB of Ram, that would be a monster of a Hybrid console. I heard a rumor someday that Nintendo wants something that can't easily be emulated on a Steamdeck and going for 16GB of Ram would ensure that for a loooong time.
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Apple literally funds node advances. They can't be compared to for anything

And there's nothing about 4N that affects timing. It's a modified version of a node that's years old already and the only other products on it are having their capacity reduced. Getting the volume needed isn't an issue
 
olobolger said:
I think it is indeed their second 32 GB release after Doom Eternal. Where did you read about KOTOR2 and the Outbreak Collection?

While the size of KOTOR2 on Switch is over the limit (15.9 against ~14.7 effective space on 16GB carts), I've never read a confirmation coming from them. And with the news of DLC not being included, I'm not sure if they will be trying to adapt the size (cut languages, compress audio or whatever) to fit on 16GB carts.

Regarding the Outbreak Collection, that one includes:

Which amounts to ~12.7GB, and there's no need for a 32GB cart. Or are there any other releases I am not aware of?
Click to expand...
kotor 2 has been released by LRG this year.

And kotor 2 occupies that size without the dlc, since it was released later. And no, they have not compressed or cut anything. They never do that.
So they are using the 32GB cartridge


With Outbreak, my mistake, I got the game wrong. I thought the game includes Contagius Memories

So the alien game its the third 32GB cartridge game by LRG on Switch.
 
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