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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I do not really remember this being common. MK8 runs at 1080p, DKC TF runs at 1080p, 3D World dynamic 1080p and Zelda BotW 900p. Im sure there are exceptions, but most Wii U ports to Switch saw a bump to either 900p or 1080p.
BAyonetta 1/2, Pikmin. I think the alpha effects are a problem for the memory bandwidth.
I think those where smaller releases (yeah, P3 did not sell tons i think?), so they probably thought its not worth it reworking the effects pipeline.
 
BAyonetta 1/2, Pikmin. I think the alpha effects are a problem for the memory bandwidth.
I think those where smaller releases (yeah, P3 did not sell tons i think?), so they probably thought its not worth it reworking the effects pipeline.
Pikmin 3 sold 2.23M units on switch
 
I am still in new HW in 2023 TEAM. Nintendo told that they don't planning new HW until the end of fiscal year. Which means that is big chance to get new HW this year. Why they can't say, "we did not release new HW in next year". Fiscal year is keyword for new HW in this year. Let me know what do you guys think about that.
 
I am still in new HW in 2023 TEAM. Nintendo told that they don't planning new HW until the end of fiscal year. Which means that is big chance to get new HW this year. Why they can't say, "we did not release new HW in next year". Fiscal year is keyword for new HW in this year. Let me know what do you guys think about that.
I think it will release with Zelda in May. If no anouncement by mid February then I think either November 2023 or March 2024.
 
It is interesting to see Nintendo skip this FY for release if it is in fact coming soon but perhaps, they have decided they would rather try and boost next FY with the release rather than try to prop up the current FY.
 
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they'd be making one big one: putting zelda on the old system the year before the new one
Zelda lives and dies by it's own schedule, for better or for worse. Nintendo seems to be committed to releasing games for the hardware they announce it for, and giving Zelda however much time it needs, and that seems to take basically a whole hardware generation.

If new hardware is 2024, then 2023 will be a very excellent final year. But I think Sony and Microsoft have proved (partially by accident) how long you can fruitfully do cross-gen, and I think 2023 could also, with the exact same titles, be an excellent first year for a console.
 
Zelda lives and dies by it's own schedule, for better or for worse. Nintendo seems to be committed to releasing games for the hardware they announce it for, and giving Zelda however much time it needs, and that seems to take basically a whole hardware generation.

If new hardware is 2024, then 2023 will be a very excellent final year. But I think Sony and Microsoft have proved (partially by accident) how long you can fruitfully do cross-gen, and I think 2023 could also, with the exact same titles, be an excellent first year for a console.

I do wonder if ToTK being a direct sequel changes Nintendo's calculus for anything regarding the typical Zelda/new hardware relationship.
 
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Nintendo will have to prepare expected hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year, so if Switch 2 hasn't been announced prior to the investors meeting in April, they will have to address the topic because they have to give an estimation for hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year that will go through March 31 2024. Not saying Nintendo would reveal it outright, but they may say something like we have nothing to announce at this time rather than we have no new hardware planned for the year. I am curious to how Nintendo has historically reported sales and profit expectations to the inventors when they have unannounced hardware being revealed later in the year?
 
they'd be making one big one: putting zelda on the old system the year before the new one

I don't think so. With the proven concept of the switch, a new exclusive Mario, a new exclusive Mario Kart, and the Zelda DLC within the first year, along with literal PS5 games running with decent visuals on a portable console, they would be in a very good spot to sell their new toy.

Also, since the selling point of the new console will be the improved visuals, I believe that an exclusive Mario would be a better illustration of the capabilities of the machine than an upscaled Switch game, itself being a direct sequel of a WiiU game.
 
I don't think so. With the proven concept of the switch, a new exclusive Mario, a new exclusive Mario Kart, and the Zelda DLC within the first year, along with literal PS5 games running with decent visuals on a portable console, they would be in a very good spot to sell their new toy.

Also, since the selling point of the new console will be the improved visuals, I believe that an exclusive Mario would be a better illustration of the capabilities of the machine than an upscaled Switch game, itself being a direct sequel of a WiiU game.
they'd struggle to make a new switch flop but not having zelda is one specific repeat of wii u
 
Gonna be interesting to see what the raw material numbers look like at the next briefing. That could be telling. If it is launch aligned with Zelda the time to announce Switch 2's existence is running out. Feb at the latest.

Although I'm slowly starting to think it's a holiday 2023 machine.
 
Nintendo will have to prepare expected hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year, so if Switch 2 hasn't been announced prior to the investors meeting in April, they will have to address the topic because they have to give an estimation for hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year that will go through March 31 2024. Not saying Nintendo would reveal it outright, but they may say something like we have nothing to announce at this time rather than we have no new hardware planned for the year. I am curious to how Nintendo has historically reported sales and profit expectations to the inventors when they have unannounced hardware being revealed later in the year?
They don't have to. When the NX's March 2017 release was announced, they mentioned that the expected sales were reflected in the financial forecast, but that they wouldn't disclose the specific unit sales estimates. I don't believe there's any reason they can't leave new hardware sales figures out of their briefings until the hardware is announced/released, whether or not those sales are going to be added to an existing category.
 
Release Holiday 2023 right before the Game Awards with a TotK 4K patch so it's fresh on everyone's minds for the Game Awards. :cool:
 
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Gonna be interesting to see what the raw material numbers look like at the next briefing. That could be telling. If it is launch aligned with Zelda the time to announce Switch 2's existence is running out. Feb at the latest.

Although I'm slowly starting to think it's a holiday 2023 machine.
You can say it in early February in my opinion.
But yes 2023 is the year ( on my part )
 
Nintendo will have to prepare expected hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year, so if Switch 2 hasn't been announced prior to the investors meeting in April, they will have to address the topic because they have to give an estimation for hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year that will go through March 31 2024. Not saying Nintendo would reveal it outright, but they may say something like we have nothing to announce at this time rather than we have no new hardware planned for the year. I am curious to how Nintendo has historically reported sales and profit expectations to the inventors when they have unannounced hardware being revealed later in the year?
the ZOLED leak was engineered by Nintendo to provide cover for a vague mention of a new hardware release in their upcoming forecast

/s...or is it?
 
my expectations for Hogwarts is that there will be a drake version whenever drake launches, but it's just a 4K/60fps version of the switch game
I would temper my expectations regarding the 4K capabilities of the machine. It should be at best comparable to high-end phones and we're expecting better than a PS5. We don't know how the tensor cores will perform in such a mobile setting, certainly well below their desktop counterparts. Most games will be optimized for handheld, they would need a serious graphical downgrade to suddenly output 4K/60fps.
Youtube, Hulu and other video apps will probably be the only ones able to take full advantage of 4K.

I hope its a brand new IP for the successor system.

...or Eternal Darkness 2.
Is there hope for Retro Studios to have an unannounced title close to completion besides Metroid Prime 4?
Their last new game was in 2014, which they ported to Switch in 2018. Nothing else. That seems like a very long time to be financing a studio with nothing to show for. Then they supposedly started MP4 in early 2019.
Could it be that they have another game in development that is too ambitious for the Switch that they retargeted to next-gen?
They could have a smaller team optimizing that game for the finalized hardware and Nintendo is just sitting on it.
 
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With Nintendo having only one console, its even more critical for them to avoid a hard reset where the decline of the previous console significantly outpaces the growth of the new console. As you can see there was a pretty big valley here when Nintendo had the Wii U selling very poorly and the 3DS wasnt able to carry the load. There is no way to have a hard reset with a single platform and not have a steep decline in year over year sales. That is unless the predecessor and the successor can be successful in the same year. The longer Nintendo rides out the Switch the more likely it is we see a stark decline in year over year sales. You cant drop a brand new console into the market without that being well planned out in advance. If Switch 2 is going to launch in 2023 it would have been decided at least a year ago to get all their ducks in a row for manufacturing and software preparation. The high selling platforms ever are the PS2 and the DS, right around 150 million units sold. Seems to be the number once a product has hit the point of nearly complete saturation. With Switch sitting at 120 million units sold, is it likely they can expect to maintain the yearly sales of 20 million units sold? Historically the numbers suggest that sharp decline in sales for the Switch are imminent. Consumer fatigue sets in after so many years as well and Nintendo will start to lose gamers to other platforms where they will start spending their time and money there. If you ask me, Nintendo wants to replicate the success of fiscal year 2012 and 2018. Fiscal 2012 saw both Wii and 3DS putting up solid numbers and fiscal 2018 still saw decent 3DS numbers while the Switch started to reach its stride.
You'd be better served to look here for Nintendo data:

Historically NSW is like no other previous Nintendo console, hardware sales are declining (HW peaked around 2020) but still cospicious and more importantly the software sales are holding up spectacularly.
Nintendo needs to nail the transition (both in term of timing and proposition) but Switch is currently still viable, Nintendo is extracting a lot of profits out of it.
What I think will happen is a soft transition ala PS4->PS5, in which who isn't yet ready for the Switch successor can just keep buying software/service for Switch whereas who is ready will upgrade to the far more capable new hardware.

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I would temper my expectations regarding the 4K capabilities of the machine. It should be at best comparable to high-end phones and we're expecting better than a PS5. We don't know how the tensor cores will perform in such a mobile setting, certainly well below their desktop counterparts. Most games will be optimized for handheld, they would need a serious graphical downgrade to suddenly output 4K/60fps.
Youtube, Hulu and other video apps will probably be the only ones able to take full advantage of 4K.
Are you just citing the "4k/60fps" to say people here are expecting better than a PS5? If so Ilikefeet was specifically saying that the Drake version of a game will likely just be the Switch version but upressed and at 60fps. Meaning, it'll have all of the graphical effect cutbacks that the Switch version has which got it ported to Switch in the first place (such as texture resolution, model complexity, alpha effects), and then the devs simply raise the resolution and framerate cap and call it a day. It will still wind up looking worse than the PS5 version since it will not use the same base assets.

4k/60fps is extremely different for a Switch game than it is for a PS4 game.
 
4k/60fps is extremely different for a Switch game than it is for a PS4 game.
Yes, it's similar to how Skyward Sword HD runs at locked 1080p/60 vs BotW at 900p/30. Or how the Nier Automata Switch port technically runs at a higher (reconstructed) resolution than the PS4 version. Less visual effects and detail mean more headroom for bumping up resolution and framerate. Most 360 games on XSX run at 4K resolutions.
 
We'll see in May if Nintendo agrees with you, or with me.
what the fuck? facts agree with me dude

skyward sword was a year before wii u, if switch 2 is next year that's one specific repeat of wii u

will it matter? probably not. it's still a repeat of the zelda situation on wii u
 
Also, and that'll be my last message regarding that specific point, having cross gen Zelda on release worked well for the Wii and the Switch, there's no denying it. But the situation was very different than the switch/Drake transition: in both aforementioned cases, the transition was between two machines very close in computing power, and in both cases, the predecessor was number 1 and number 2 in terms of home console flops.
As for the WiiU, it had 99 problems, but not having the very underwhelming Skywards Sword on release wasn't really one.
 
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Nintendo will have to prepare expected hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year, so if Switch 2 hasn't been announced prior to the investors meeting in April, they will have to address the topic because they have to give an estimation for hardware sales for the upcoming fiscal year that will go through March 31 2024. Not saying Nintendo would reveal it outright, but they may say something like we have nothing to announce at this time rather than we have no new hardware planned for the year. I am curious to how Nintendo has historically reported sales and profit expectations to the inventors when they have unannounced hardware being revealed later in the year?
They wouldn't have to include it in the hardware forecast itself, there would probably be other indicators in the financials if they are planning to launch something. I don't think they could or would completely obfuscate new hardware launching in the FY to the point that investors are completely blindsided though.

Ultimately I think they'll have to say something either way, if they haven't announced it already by the end of FY. No guidance on future plans in the face of declining Switch sales is going to cause a larger degree of shareholder/investor concern compared to the previous/current FY where they chalked it up to component shortages. Like a "we plan to announce and launch new hardware this FY/next FY" type thing announcement. Which is similar to how previous generations have operated.
 
What about the new gimmick? I'm sorta expecting something like this
The Switch is pretty 'normal' with regards to feature set. I don't expect any radical shift in control scheme. At most some kind of sensor, whether it be IR, camera, voice, touch enabled shoulder buttons, etc. Y'know, the sort most devs will probably ignore. I anticipate improved gyro and haptics.

I don't think there will be 'one' new gimmick to differentiate this console. I expect a bunch of different features marketed alongside unique games and peripherals.
 
What about the new gimmick? I'm sorta expecting something like this

fFPQZve.png
Some new inputs added to the base controllers seems pretty likely, but the Switch is already broadly a very modular system designed to allow Nintendo's more quirky ideas to attach on to it. I don't think anything too radical will change there.
 
I would temper my expectations regarding the 4K capabilities of the machine. It should be at best comparable to high-end phones and we're expecting better than a PS5. We don't know how the tensor cores will perform in such a mobile setting, certainly well below their desktop counterparts. Most games will be optimized for handheld, they would need a serious graphical downgrade to suddenly output 4K/60fps.
Youtube, Hulu and other video apps will probably be the only ones able to take full advantage of 4K.
you really think people are talking about a native 4K here? this is after DLSS or any sort of upscaling.
 
What about the new gimmick? I'm sorta expecting something like this

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I have a sneeking suspicion that's why Nate heard it was canned, they were nervous about a straight up powerupgrade and felt they needed to add a gimmick.

Because we sure as hell know it wasn't to create a new soc.
 
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If you want to go down that route, you may as well call it a GBA engine.

Codebases can change and evolve over time, and the current version is considerably more advanced than even what was powering Sword and Shield. The thing that's absurd, and lead to the state of Scarlet and Violet is Game Freak's insistence on a strict 3 year cycle, especially with COVID and their previous project seemingly wrapping up later than usual.

Okay, but if you're going to adapt an internal engine that has not come close to doing the types of things you need to happen in a new game, then you need to modify it massively.

And I don't know how many modernizations were performed considering how many cycles everything in Pokemon sucks up. Everything just uses way too many resources. This caused Game Freak to do the most intense culling seen in a game since 2006, with pop-in happening a couple feet away, animations running at 5-15 FPS while being fairly close. And, of course, even with this historically intense culling, the game runs very badly.

This could have been fixed with more programmers and more time potentially, yes.

(special shoutout to Game Freak's all-time bad shadowing, which just uses pre-baked shadows that pop in and out of scene with the slightest change in camera angle)
 
Okay, but if you're going to adapt an internal engine that has not come close to doing the types of things you need to happen in a new game, then you need to modify it massively.

And I don't know how many modernizations were performed considering how many cycles everything in Pokemon sucks up. Everything just uses way too many resources. This caused Game Freak to do the most intense culling seen in a game since 2006, with pop-in happening a couple feet away, animations running at 5-15 FPS while being fairly close. And, of course, even with this historically intense culling, the game runs very badly.

This could have been fixed with more programmers and more time potentially, yes.

(special shoutout to Game Freak's all-time bad shadowing, which just uses pre-baked shadows that pop in and out of scene with the slightest change in camera angle)
It has been modified massively. SV wouldn't have happened at all otherwise.

The age of the codebase isn't the problem. Even the more "standard" options like Unreal are pretty old engines that have gone through a lot of iterations. It's really just a problem of a historically technically weak studio (which they've only pretty recently started investing in trying to change) being exacerbated by a poorly functioning development pipeline.
 
What about the new gimmick? I'm sorta expecting something like this
You know, I really think that the Gimmick thing is overrated. I think Nintendo will market "a new way to play" because they always have, but there is as much iteration as experimentation in Nintendo's history.

The SNES and the GameCube were power driven updates. The N64's weird controller is really a product of 3D, which is a gimmick, but also, is just More Power. The Wii was wild, but the Wii U wasn't a radical new concept. Both the Wii and the the Switch made motion controllers as fundamental to the machines as trigger buttons, even as motion controls fell off.

The Wii U's gamepad allowed all new async gameplay concepts with a single machine, but for the majority of games it was really the handheld version of the DS, with an always available inventory touch screen. The Switch doesn't have that particular feature, but the whole Switch concept takes the most successful "new way to play" from the Wii U era (offscreen play) and built a whole ding-dang console out of it.

The Virtual Boy was a failure - decades too early - GameBoy Color and GameBoy Advance were really just more powerful game boys. The DS was insane, obviously, but the 3DS, as wild as stereoscopic 3D was, it also really just made 3D platforming possible on that tiny screen and was effectively totally optional.

Of the 13 consoles Nintendo has made, only five have been centered on something other than new visual capability. Two of those were massive failures in the market (virtual boy and Wii U), and one of them, the Switch, could be argued as secretly a giant visual leap for their handheld line that supplanted their TV line.

Switch was marketed with magic joycons that could make you count ice cubes through haptics. There will be something fun in there, and it will likely be overhyped at launch to give folks something to talk about.

It seems like if they could get streaming to the dock, it would kinda be over. Dual screens and async play represent the only major features of their other consoles not replicated on Switch. DS games could comfortably come to NSO, as well as a couple lost Wii U games, but also, I think the inventory on second screen concept is a genuinely great reason to play games on Switch instead of other consoles, even if you're not a handheld player. It's one of those rare perfect ideas that just needs to be salvaged.
 
What about the new gimmick? I'm sorta expecting something like this

fFPQZve.png
I'm expecting a DS => 3DS situation; the same basic concept (clamshell design), but just "more" (circlepad, 3D), and obviously being a more capable machine altogether. So something like the Switch (tablet with detachable controllers and a docking station that connects to the TV with more ), and maybe something like a foldable screen (?), wheel shoulder buttons, magnetic sticks (im coping here), etc.
 


On the timestmap, just a quick mention of how "Ultra performance DLSS is going to be needed on the Switch". Nothing major, obviously, but just nice to be remembered that Drake will benefit heavily from AI reconstruction technology.
 
What about the new gimmick? I'm sorta expecting something like this

fFPQZve.png
Not the Iwata era anymore so kind of a moot point, but I'm not really sure what gimmick could be out there that would drastically impact the hardware design. Anything of note is either already built into the Switch, a refinement of existing paradigms/gimmicks, or would be a peripheral like VR or what was used for Ring Fit.

The only thing that sticks out as something truly novel, would be figuring out a way to use tensor cores for software/hardware in a way no one has really tried since this will be the first dedicated gaming hardware to have access to something like that. Again though, that wouldn't change the hardware much from the current Switch.
 
missing zelda by a year is lame wii u shit, old news

missing zelda by six months is the new hotness

I’m 100% in agreement that it sucks to miss it. And I also question why they wouldn’t just delay the game a bit further if the hardware is actually that close to release.

That said Sony didn’t hesitate to release TLOU2 on PS4 months before PS5 released. They then patched it for PS5 just under a year later, and Nintendo could be looking at this approach. I know there’s many reasons why this is different, key among them being that TLOU is not really analogous to Zelda within Sony’s lineup, where their entire fleet of IPs is focused on the core - but it is probably their most prestigious release among them.
 
The hardware gimmick that is needed is a camera that can accurately track body positioning and movement.

Ring Fit and WiiFit show there's a massive audience for exercise games, but you're just super limited without a camera actually checking to see if you're doing the exercise correctly and telling you what you're doing wrong.
 
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I dont think they need a gimmick this time around, the hybrid "gimmick" has been proven to work so as long as they stick with it (and make it more powerful and visually better) people will buy it

But knowing Nintendo there probably will be some unnecessary feature of some kind, that's not necessarily a bad thing or a mistake but still
 
I dont think they need a gimmick this time around, the hybrid "gimmick" has been proven to work so as long as they stick with it (and make it more powerful and visually better) people will buy it

But knowing Nintendo there probably will be some unnecessary feature of some kind, that's not necessarily a bad thing or a mistake but still

They don’t need one, but it seems atypical for them not to seek one out. Most (all?) of us think they can pull off another gen without trying to change the functional offering, but there’s zero doubt in my mind that they’ve had R&D heads-down prototyping feasible new tech for the entire lifespan of the Switch.
 
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