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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
Just quoting the staff post for the new page:
Aurc said:
Hey everyone, this is just a heads-up to let you all know that the moderation team is currently in the process of prepping a thread for an open community discussion surrounding insider culture. We'd like the conversation to encompass things such as how members respond to insider information, how the community would prefer we handle the often impassioned sentiments that emerge, and so on.

We're open to hearing from both supporters and skeptics. All we ask is that the dialogue remain civil, with all of us working together toward a productive framework for how these matters are approached by the community, and moderated by staff. Speaking candidly, the team finds the reports that emerge during periods of new info circulating to be some of the most challenging to handle. We simply wish to ensure we're doing right by the community, which is to be the purpose of the thread. We'll aim to have it out within the next couple days.

- Aurc, Red Monster, Derachi
Click to expand...
 
Machrider said:
I don't think there ever was a Pro hardware. NVN2 = Drake and that's all there ever was.

Nintendo is too cheap to pay for R&D on a modern chipset design and then not use it, modern chip designs are not cheap and Nvidia doesn't make like casually upgraded versions of the Tegra X1 or X2 ... you can't just order one with more CUDA cores or something like adding extra fries to a fast food order, they don't work like that.

I think what more than likely happened is COVID had a much larger impact on Nintendo's hardware plans than people may understand, it completely altered time lines by 1-2 years I think, we're talking about a massive global event, frankly the biggest thing to happen to global supply chains since World War II. Switch Next-Gen will be the first (major) new hardware that launches post-COVID, I think we'll learn in the future that COVID had a massive impact on it's development and release.
Click to expand...
Err, no. PS5 and XSS/X all launched during peak COVID. The timeline we know of for T239 seems very normal, seemingly unaffected by COVID. Drake was likely always planned for a launch some time between late 2022 and the end of 2023.

We have a fair bit of evidence suggesting a Mariko based pro was indeed planned and canned.
 
Skittzo said:
Err, no. PS5 and XSS/X all launched during peak COVID. The timeline we know of for T239 seems very normal, seemingly unaffected by COVID. Drake was likely always planned for a launch some time between late 2022 and the end of 2023.

We have a fair bit of evidence suggesting a Mariko based pro was indeed planned and canned.
Click to expand...

Bulk of PS5/XSS/XSX development was done before COVID shut downs, the hardware was basically complete.

I don't think a "end of 2023" release for Drake is even a given anymore ... you might be very easily looking at late 2024 even.

I doubt a Pro model because there's nothing from any developer that was concrete on a Pro model and what of a chipset it had or any kind of hardware leak that indicates a firmware model designation for a Pro or anything like that. Drake has NVN2.

Frankly I don't think Nvidia works for cheap either and I don't think Nintendo in this day and age would spend serious money on a chip revision and then not use it.

The DS and 3DS models were completely different beasts because they were just using common ARM cores that could be easily swapped out and are used in tons of products. If you're asking Nvidia for a customized Tegra X1 with more horsepower you're basically asking them for a new chip design that probably is going to cost accordingly.
 
Aurc said:
Just quoting the staff post for the new page:
Click to expand...
In my opinion, anyone who does not believe in the veracity of an insider should not insult him or mess with him in any thread.

Not believing the information does not give you the right to behave like a jerk or to treat another person badly.

And about the insiders, let them participate however they want, at the end of the day it is an internal decision to pay attention to them or not.
 
Sol said:
Is it safe to assume that all of this will be the primary subject of conversation on your next podcast?
Click to expand...

Correct.

CypressFX said:
Nate, will your upcoming podcast share only details up to that point where you announced the canned version or have you already collected more info to tell us more if a launch is possible in 2023?

And when do you think you will release this the furthest?

Thanks, as always!
Click to expand...

It'll give as many details as I can provide on the subject up to the day of recording -- meaning, I have been having conversations this week and I'll share details of those conversations, if my contacts provide an okay to do so.
 
Machrider said:
Bulk of PS5/XSS/XSX development was done before COVID shut downs, the hardware was basically complete.
Click to expand...
Fair enough, I thought you were just referring to hardware launching in a post-COVID world in general. T239 started development in 2019, before the pandemic. Most of it was obviously during though.
Machrider said:
I don't think a "end of 2023" release for Drake is even a given anymore ... you might be very easily looking at late 2024 even.
Click to expand...
We have literally nothing pointing to 2024 or beyond, 2023 is the only thing that makes sense with the hard info we currently have. If it's not 2023 it's more likely 2026-2027 and a completely different chip.
Machrider said:
I doubt a Pro model because there's nothing from any developer that was concrete on a Pro model and what of a chipset it had or any kind of hardware leak that indicates a firmware model designation for a Pro or anything like that. Drake has NVN2.

Frankly I don't think Nvidia works for cheap either and I don't think Nintendo in this day and age would spend serious money on a chip revision and then not use it.

The DS and 3DS models were completely different beasts because they were just using common ARM cores that could be easily swapped out and are used in tons of products. If you're asking Nvidia for a customized Tegra X1 with more horsepower you're basically asking them for a new chip design that probably is going to cost accordingly.
Click to expand...
Again I'm referring to a Mariko pro that was cancelled. Mariko already exists in the V2, OLED and Lite models. Most speculation and some rumors and evidence suggest they planned to release a Switch pro style revision in 2019 along with the Lite, and instead decided to just release the V2 with the enhanced battery. That's what I'm talking about when I refer to a cancelled pro.
 
Skittzo said:
Fair enough, I thought you were just referring to hardware launching in a post-COVID world in general. T239 started development in 2019, before the pandemic. Most of it was obviously during though.
Click to expand...
I think development of T239 probably started in 2020 and was fleshed out in 2021. Can't know for sure, of course. The only thing we have solid evidence of in 2019 is that Nvidia was demoing DLSS to Nintendo and working on some prototype/demo apps for new features in NVN. My belief is that the overall project was probably kicked off in 2019, but that's just a guess.

One thing worth mentioning is that even if the pandemic didn't notably slow down development of NVN2 or T239 (which I agree is probably the case), that doesn't tell us what was going on on Nintendo's side during that time. I'm still predicting a 2023 launch regardless, but we don't know the whole picture.
 
I find it funny that I'm compelled to explain how a celebrity "blind item" works on a gaming tech thread.

- A blind item usually starts with a prediction (or insider info masquerading as prediction): "Are Brad P and Jennifer A getting back together?"

- Followed by some facts/hearsay: "Brad P was seen getting in and out Jennifer A's house last week."

- Lastly an improbable interpretation of said facts/hearsay as a joke and to heighten the strength of above prediction: "Or Brad was simply picking up his mails from Jennifer. LOL!"

Looking at the excerpt of the upcoming Famitsu article, it is structured the same way.

- A prediction (or insider info masquerading as prediction): Nintendo will announce or release a new hardware in 2023.

- Facts/hearsay: A "super VIP" from a US-based global semiconductor manufacturer made a clandestine ("nin", as in "ninja") visit to [destination redacted]. This manufacturer worked with Nintendo, and the person previously made the same trip before Nintendo announced a "new model game" (a strange descriptor that I'm not certain how to translate—a game for a new model, a new type of game, or something else?).

- An improbable interpretation: They were in Japan to talk with Rapidus. LOL.

So the hints here are pretty thick already. What Nintendo suppliers are US-based global semiconductor makers—particularly one that warrants the Famitsu (Japan's no.1 gaming press) reporter to predict a new Nintendo hardware? Who is this Super VIP for whom a celebrity blind item treatment is justified—someone whose mere presence would get tongues wagging thus needing to travel incognito?

Too bad there isn't a Jensen Huang jet tracker.
 
Aurc said:
Just quoting the staff post for the new page:
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When it comes to insider discussion, I think the main issues come down to three things.

1. When an insider gets something wrong, people are really quick to jump at their throat and insult them. Criticism is fine. Insults aren't.

2. The constant begging for info is completely out of control and needs to be limited. That just puts pressure on people like Nate and Emily who simply aren't ready or willing to give out info. Not to mention it's kinda annoying.

3. Probably most controversial, but I think some people on here get pretty defensive when you don't believe in a certain rumor or individual (not talking about the insiders themselves, more just general users). Like I don't believe in the Switch 2 coming out in 2023, and some people take that personally for some reason. It's just rumors.
 
Last edited:
Thraktor said:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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But it’s 100% not linear, right? Especially if the intercept is 0.

4.2W - 660MHz
9.3W - 1,125MHz
12.0W - 1,380MHz

Or more simplistically, 9.3w is 220% of 4.2w but the clock speed is only 170% of 660MHz.

Next jump isnt linear either: 12.0w is 130% of 9.3w but the clock speed is only 23% faster

Looking at 4.2w and 12.0w, you have nearly 3x power draw at 2x the clock speeds
 
Ojoloco said:
In my opinion, anyone who does not believe in the veracity of an insider should not insult him or mess with him in any thread.

Not believing the information does not give you the right to behave like a jerk or to treat another person badly.

And about the insiders, let them participate however they want, at the end of the day it is an internal decision to pay attention to them or not.
Click to expand...
To be clear: the thread we're set to post is no grounds for a debate as to whether or not folks should be able to freely and openly attack insiders that also happen to be members of the site. We already take a harsh stance against blatant vitriol. Not just toward insiders, but toward any member of the community. Our intent with creating an open dialogue is for folks to have a space where they're encouraged to voice their concerns (in either direction) more productively. This thread really isn't tailored for that. We'd like for everyone to come away with a better understanding of how they're expected to engage, going forward. It's far easier for moderators to act on reported posts when everyone's more familiar with what's deemed acceptable behavior on a given subject, particularly a contentious one such as this.
 
I have a feeling that the ‘cancelled’ Switch model used the NVIDIA Tegra Orin SoC (T234) and the console likely to be released this year uses ‘Drake’ (T239).
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
But it’s 100% not linear, right? Especially if the intercept is 0.

4.2W - 660MHz
9.3W - 1,125MHz
12.0W - 1,380MHz

Or more simplistically, 9.3w is 220% of 4.2w but the clock speed is only 170% of 660MHz.

Next jump isnt linear either: 12.0w is 130% of 9.3w but the clock speed is only 23% faster

Looking at 4.2w and 12.0w, you have nearly 3x power draw at 2x the clock speeds
Click to expand...
Looks more or less linear to me. Real power consumption curves are exponential I believe, they look wildly different than this.
Screenshot_20230104-210947.png
 
Thomas_T9 said:
I have a feeling that the ‘cancelled’ Switch model used the NVIDIA Tegra Orin SoC (T234) and the console likely to be released this year uses ‘Drake’ (T239).
Click to expand...
Orin is huge and has a ton of automotive components which Nintendo would have no use for. That's one of the things we can pretty definitely rule out.
Vash_the_Stampede said:
All I can do is say look at the math: change in x and change in y isn’t linear.
Click to expand...
🤷‍♂️
 
0
Skittzo said:
Fair enough, I thought you were just referring to hardware launching in a post-COVID world in general. T239 started development in 2019, before the pandemic. Most of it was obviously during though.
Click to expand...
LiC said:
I think development of T239 probably started in 2020 and was fleshed out in 2021. Can't know for sure, of course. The only thing we have solid evidence of in 2019 is that Nvidia was demoing DLSS to Nintendo and working on some prototype/demo apps for new features in NVN. My belief is that the overall project was probably kicked off in 2019, but that's just a guess.
Click to expand...
ReddDreadtheLead said:
That NV employee for the FDE was around mid summer 2019, so it was likely in 2019, not 2020, when it kicked off. But of course, planned well before that.
Click to expand...
Not to parse this super fine, but the Tegra team staffed up in 2019, going by LinkedIn, and at least 2 engineers have mentioned the FDE and they both started in 2019. The Orin team and the Drake team are identical, and both those engineers (well 1, I believe the other took down their linkedin profile) mix clear Orin responsibilities ("...for automotive sector") with Drake ("file decompression engine for games") in the same job description.

To what degree Nintendo's needs were being taken into consideration in those early days is kinda up in the air, and even if we knew exactly, I suspect there is a wide range of interpretation for "beginning".

Regardless of when it started, if Nintendo has, in fact, pushed back Drake based hardware, it deeply validates the decision to let Nvidia sell T239 and Nvidia sharing process nodes between products.

If T239 was/is on a bespoke node, then any delay would be disastrous, as Nintendo would either have to manufacture chips and pay to store them or lose their place in the foundry line. Similar position if Nintendo is/was T239's only customer.

Having T239 on the same node as other Nvidia chips lets Nvidia shift capacity over in the short term without losing foundry access. And having other uses for T239 allows Nvidia to move small production batches of chips without having to shut down the whole line, only to ramp it back up 6 months later.

This is why I have always found the non-SEC8/TSMC7/TSMC5 nodes not really viable. It's also why the exact start date might not matter. Unlike Microsoft and Sony, with their totally custom AMD APUs, the clock doesn't start ticking for Nintendo the moment that first chip comes off the production line
 
Quoted by: LiC
1
On the note of today's report about possible 2023 new hardware, has @Polygon 's friend reconfirmed what they know about the hardware ? I recall the last comment was the hardware was suppose to launch around TOTK
 
I remember how crazy things were back doing the NX days, the Wii U was dead and everyone was itching for a new Nintendo Device with a new rumor seemingly coming every month, that was literally driving me mad, but at least back then we had a definitive answer from Nintendo that the NX was real plus we also had confirmation from Square Enix with Dragon Quest and Sonic Team with Sonic Forces. Sadly we haven't been this blessed with Drake and the rumors are few and far between with no person or company leaking anything definitive, when something does leak it gets debunked very quickly. Come this February at the meeting i just hope Nintendo gives us a codename or something and not reply with that same old middle of the Switch life cycle crap.
 
Dekuman said:
On the note of today's report about possible 2023 new hardware, has @Polygon 's friend reconfirmed what they know about the hardware ? I recall the last comment was the hardware was suppose to launch around TOTK
Click to expand...
He said that information he has was still set in stone from this past holiday, he hasnt spoken with his buddy since
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
That NV employee for the FDE was around mid summer 2019, so it was likely in 2019, not 2020, when it kicked off. But of course, planned well before that.
Click to expand...
The FDE was one bullet point listed under their work experience at Nvidia, which began in 2019. So it doesn't mean the work on the FDE had to be in 2019.

oldpuck said:
Not to parse this super fine, but the Tegra team staffed up in 2019, going by LinkedIn, and at least 2 engineers have mentioned the FDE and they both started in 2019. The Orin team and the Drake team are identical, and both those engineers (well 1, I believe the other took down their linkedin profile) mix clear Orin responsibilities ("...for automotive sector") with Drake ("file decompression engine for games") in the same job description.

To what degree Nintendo's needs were being taken into consideration in those early days is kinda up in the air, and even if we knew exactly, I suspect there is a wide range of interpretation for "beginning".
Click to expand...
Nintendo's needs were probably in the conversation as soon as Nvidia started planning another Tegra with their gaming GPU architecture. But those discussions would have taken some time to coalesce into a specific chip, and to me 2020 seems to have been when that happened. But there's a big margin of uncertainty since we have such little info, and as you said you can pick different points to say when development began.
 
Kysen said:
I have got a digital copy of the magazine. Here is the article:

WbPHL.jpeg
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I find it almost embarrassing that the only Japanese characters I can actually recognise are the (I believe Kanji) "Nin", "Ten" and "Do" of Nintendo.
 
"Launched in 2017, the Nintendo-Switch is a mature video game console that is now in its sixth year. Even if there is a philosophy that "as long as we develop attractive games that do not depend on the performance of the game consoles, there will be no problem," I think we are approaching the end of the road.

It is still fresh in our minds that the latest "Pokemon" game, released in November 2022, was greeted with whispers among some game enthusiasts that the Nintendo-Switch was underpowered. It is still fresh in our memories.

As games are computer entertainment, there will be times when processor performance will not be able to keep up with the ever-increasing level of software technology.
The performance of processors will not be able to keep up with the ever-increasing level of software technology.
The same thing will happen to all game consoles.

In my personal opinion, I believe that in 2023, Nintendo will make some kind of move regarding a new game console. Even if there is no launch, at least an announcement or a preview.

Let's just say that the basis for this is human movement. The author intends to pay close attention to the movements of Nintendo and its surroundings in 2023 (laughs)"

Taken from DeepL :)

EDIT: the "Basis for this is human movement" part references another annotation at the bottom of the page, haven't checked that yet.
 
kojimaposting said:
"Launched in 2017, the Nintendo-Switch is a mature video game console that is now in its sixth year. Even if there is a philosophy that "as long as we develop attractive games that do not depend on the performance of the game consoles, there will be no problem," I think we are approaching the end of the road.

It is still fresh in our minds that the latest "Pokemon" game, released in November 2022, was greeted with whispers among some game enthusiasts that the Nintendo-Switch was underpowered. It is still fresh in our memories.

As games are computer entertainment, there will be times when processor performance will not be able to keep up with the ever-increasing level of software technology.
The performance of processors will not be able to keep up with the ever-increasing level of software technology.
The same thing will happen to all game consoles.

In my personal opinion, I believe that in 2023, Nintendo will make some kind of move regarding a new game console. Even if there is no launch, at least an announcement or a preview.

Let's just say that the basis for this is human movement. The author intends to pay close attention to the movements of Nintendo and its surroundings in 2023 (laughs)"

Taken from DeepL :)

EDIT: the "Basis for this is human movement" part references another annotation at the bottom of the page, haven't checked that yet.
Click to expand...
Thanks. Looks like just speculation, though the 'human movment' reference needs more clarification.
 
Dekuman said:
Thanks. Looks like just speculation, though the 'human movment' reference needs more clarification.
Click to expand...
The "[2]" citation basically sums up the earlier info stated by the person with early Famitsu access, that they saw a super important person visiting Nintendo and the last time they saw it was before a previous game console launch. They wonder if it's coincidentally the same thing.

It also states "Incidentally, we have seen such super VIPs in the final contracting stage of a super large project" but then it goes on to talk about the Rapidus stuff, so I'm not sure which party they're referring to (or if it's muddied by the DeepL translation).

"By chance, I happened to catch word that a VIP from a world-class American semiconductor manufacturer, who rarely comes to Japan, was in Japan on a personal visit, even though there was no event or conference of note.
It is a manufacturer that has been used in Nintendo's game consoles in the past. Moreover, the direction of the destination is........ We have seen something similar to this before the announcement of Nintendo's game consoles in the past, so we are wondering if this time is the same as this time .... I am wondering if this is the same thing (laugh).

Incidentally, we have seen such super VIPs in the final contracting stage of a super large project.
Incidentally, there have been cases in the past where super VIPs have visited the site during the final contracting stage. Well, it is highly possible that they came to Japan for the Rapidus project, which is being promoted as a national project (laughs).
 
Skittzo said:
Looks more or less linear to me.
Click to expand...
Vash_the_Stampede said:
All I can do is say look at the math: change in x and change in y isn’t linear.
Click to expand...
Good news: you're both technically correct in your own ways

From a pure math perspective: a function f is "linear" if f(ax+by)=af(x)+bf(y) for all constants a and b, and all x and y in whatever space you're in. A simple consequence of this is that f(0)=0. What we normally think of as "linear" functions - functions like f(x)=ax+b - are actually affine functions. So in that respect, Vash is correct.

From a... I dunno, statistics? Real-world? perspective: by "linear" we usually mean that the relationship between x and y is approximately given by y=ax+b. You can find the best constants a and b, and how well they fit, using linear regression. I haven't run the numbers here but it seems likely from the graph that there's a pretty high R^2 (i.e. good linear relationship). So in that respect, Skittzo is correct.

Bad news: this is a stupid argument, we've got three data points lol
 
fwd-bwd said:
I find it funny that I'm compelled to explain how a celebrity "blind item" works on a gaming tech thread.

- A blind item usually starts with a prediction (or insider info masquerading as prediction): "Are Brad P and Jennifer A getting back together?"

- Followed by some facts/hearsay: "Brad P was seen getting in and out Jennifer A's house last week."

- Lastly an improbable interpretation of said facts/hearsay as a joke and to heighten the strength of above prediction: "Or Brad was simply picking up his mails from Jennifer. LOL!"

Looking at the excerpt of the upcoming Famitsu article, it is structured the same way.

- A prediction (or insider info masquerading as prediction): Nintendo will announce or release a new hardware in 2023.

- Facts/hearsay: A "super VIP" from a US-based global semiconductor manufacturer made a clandestine ("nin", as in "ninja") visit to [destination redacted]. This manufacturer worked with Nintendo, and the person previously made the same trip before Nintendo announced a "new model game" (a strange descriptor that I'm not certain how to translate—a game for a new model, a new type of game, or something else?).

- An improbable interpretation: They were in Japan to talk with Rapidus. LOL.

So the hints here are pretty thick already. What Nintendo suppliers are US-based global semiconductor makers—particularly one that warrants the Famitsu (Japan's no.1 gaming press) reporter to predict a new Nintendo hardware? Who is this Super VIP for whom a celebrity blind item treatment is justified—someone whose mere presence would get tongues wagging thus needing to travel incognito?

Too bad there isn't a Jensen Huang jet tracker.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it's just a roundabout way of saying "Jensen Huang was visiting Nintendo," not something where the reader is supposed to be in the dark about what they might mean.

Personally I'm filing this in the same category as those "game store uncle" Twitter posts. I happen not to believe people have inside info just because they speak Japanese, and this is an opinion/prediction piece (about multiple technologies/companies) where no one is checking any sources, if this was even supposed to be inside info. If it was, then the specifics like the Nvidia visit would just be window dressing, and the point of the statement would just be "this is happening," so either way there's nothing for us to decode in terms of which company it might be.
 
NintenDuvo said:
I honestly wouldnt blame Nintendo charging $450 or $500 in todays world, even at the price of the other next gen systems, im sure it will still sell like hotcakes
Click to expand...
Nah, I think a high priced Nintendo system will always be a bad idea. Nintendo thrives as a cheaper option compared to its competitors. The 3DS was too expensive at launch and failed out the gate, the price had to be lowered for the system to succeed. IIRC the Wii U was the same way, but it never recovered.
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
This is a perfect time for victory laps and being a little childish.



👍



Inventory proved not to matter, like I argued repeatedly.



I’m still not famous like @NateDrake




Companies/analysts who called for a chip shortage in 2023-2024 are idiots.

Vash - 1
Chip producers - 0



This is coming true.



Still trying to get 2023 right
Click to expand...
Victory lap deserved king.
 
Skittzo said:
Fair enough, I thought you were just referring to hardware launching in a post-COVID world in general. T239 started development in 2019, before the pandemic. Most of it was obviously during though.

We have literally nothing pointing to 2024 or beyond, 2023 is the only thing that makes sense with the hard info we currently have. If it's not 2023 it's more likely 2026-2027 and a completely different chip.

Again I'm referring to a Mariko pro that was cancelled. Mariko already exists in the V2, OLED and Lite models. Most speculation and some rumors and evidence suggest they planned to release a Switch pro style revision in 2019 along with the Lite, and instead decided to just release the V2 with the enhanced battery. That's what I'm talking about when I refer to a cancelled pro.
Click to expand...

We'll see, I think there's a ton of factors that are far out of anyone's control. For starters who even knows what Furukawa's thinking is, this is an entirely new Nintendo president who hasn't launched any hardware before, we don't know at all what goes on inside Nintendo's board room meetings other than they are on record saying the Switch was only half way through its life cycle as of even 2021/22 and then said the Switch will break the trend of Nintendo console's fizzling out in year 5/6+.

I'd like to have a Switch successor in 2023, but we're already into 2023 and there's very, very little buzz for a new hardware from developer sources or manufacturing sources even though the clock would be ticking pretty loudly by now. I mean 3rd parties would need development kits and you'd probably hear a lot more concrete buzz, but it's still deathly quiet. If there is a launch in 2023, we're 10-11 months out now? Lots of devs would need to have dev kits by now.

Current Switch is massively profitable for Nintendo and hardware transitions generally haven't been good to Nintendo. Factoring in time lost from the COVID break on top of the Switch's continued massive success, I could see new hardware not until 2024 easily.
 
I believe that for everyone's sake, especially for Nate himself, we should stop opening and closing hype loops based on his words.
Many times Nate has given us the right clues to make us dream, for example on Nintendo Directs ... But on the subject of "new Nintendo console" he evidently has unreliable sources, compared to Digital Foundry for example. Even his last posts seem more like a way of not showing how vulnerable he is on this front.

And in my opinion it's also our fault, because we ask too much and he is afraid of disappointing us.


I'm sorry if this is interpreted as an attack on Nate. Because it's actually the exact opposite.
 
Eclissi said:
I believe that for everyone's sake, especially for Nate himself, we should stop opening and closing hype loops based on his words. Many times Nate has given us the right clues to make us dream, for example on the Direct ... But on the subject of "new Nintendo console" he evidently has unreliable sources, compared to Digital Foundry for example. Even his last posts seem more like a way of not showing how vulnerable he is on this front. And in my opinion it's also our fault, because we ask too much and he is afraid of disappointing us.

I'm sorry if this is interpreted as an attack on Nate. Because it's actually the exact opposite.
Click to expand...
Yeah for the most part I completely disregard everything he says but I can't lie I am looking forward to the podcast
 
0
Aurc said:
Hey everyone, this is just a heads-up to let you all know that the moderation team is currently in the process of prepping a thread for an open community discussion surrounding insider culture. We'd like the conversation to encompass things such as how members respond to insider information, how the community would prefer we handle the often impassioned sentiments that emerge, and so on.

We're open to hearing from both supporters and skeptics. All we ask is that the dialogue remain civil, with all of us working together toward a productive framework for how these matters are approached by the community, and moderated by staff. Speaking candidly, the team finds the reports that emerge during periods of new info circulating to be some of the most challenging to handle. We simply wish to ensure we're doing right by the community, which is to be the purpose of the thread. We'll aim to have it out within the next couple days.

- Aurc, Red Monster, Derachi
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this is a great move. looking forward to the thread.
 
NintenDuvo said:
I honestly wouldnt blame Nintendo charging $450 or $500 in todays world, even at the price of the other next gen systems, im sure it will still sell like hotcakes
Click to expand...
Personally, I think the hardware price will go up to $450 on the Switch 2. With inflation and a more expensive chip than the tegra x1. Maybe Nintendo knows a lot of people won't be happy with that price.

And for the Switch 2, a lot of the demand will come from existing Switch owners replacing their devices.
It's the next generation of a device that has sold 120 million units.

So I think it's possible that Nintendo will sell only the Switch 2 tablet for $350, excluding the dock, hdmi cable, Joy-Con, and charger.


Nintendo has already sold a switch in Japan at a discount of 5,000 yen, excluding the dock, hdmi cable, and charger. They can do something like this on the Switch 2 as well.

Of course, this requires the switch and switch 2's joycon, dock, charger, etc. to be compatible.

Or they could follow the example of PlayStation and Xbox and release download-only consoles. Because the profit margins of download games are high, even selling hardware for $100 less can be profitable in the long run. It's also possible to sell the download-only console without components like a dock or charger if you want to lower its price even further.

To conclude, it is theoretically possible for Nintendo to sell the Switch 2 at the same price as the existing Switch without compromising the performance of the Switch 2.
 
Sin Drive said:
I don't necessarily understand this want of a stationary Switch because I'm not sure how a normal switch doesn't already suit the needs of a tv console gamer. You having a problem using it handheld is easily solved by just not undocking.

They can recup the R&D by simply putting out more of what people want, a more powerful switch. Not by giving people who only want a home console (of which there'd be more powerful choices) just that and ignoring the hybrid/handheld enjoyers for two years.
I'm also not convinced Nintendo would put out a clearly more powerful version of a Switch....only locked to one that cannot switch. Sharing that same hardware between a home and lite version? Sure. One being more powerful than the other the base hybrid? Nah
Click to expand...
0 interest, but just because its so simple:
Reduced build complexity / bom-> cheaper to make
you can add a beefier cooling solution without much cost -> hugher clock speeds, more power
you are termally not constrained by how hot the back gets, since people wont take it out of a dock and touch it
Less compex build -> less failer/returns because of less mechanical wear (or battery/screen problems)

cheaper AND more powerfull sounds like an easy benefit in many eyes.

now is there enough interest that it becomes a mass market product? Is there amarkrt big enough?
i actually doubt it. The switching aspect is just to enticing . Even the light did not sell that well.
 
Machrider said:
We'll see, I think there's a ton of factors that are far out of anyone's control. For starters who even knows what Furukawa's thinking is, this is an entirely new Nintendo president who hasn't launched any hardware before, we don't know at all what goes on inside Nintendo's board room meetings other than they are on record saying the Switch was only half way through its life cycle as of even 2021/22 and then said the Switch will break the trend of Nintendo console's fizzling out in year 5/6+.

I'd like to have a Switch successor in 2023, but we're already into 2023 and there's very, very little buzz for a new hardware from developer sources or manufacturing sources even though the clock would be ticking pretty loudly by now. I mean 3rd parties would need development kits and you'd probably hear a lot more concrete buzz, but it's still deathly quiet. If there is a launch in 2023, we're 10-11 months out now? Lots of devs would need to have dev kits by now.

Current Switch is massively profitable for Nintendo and hardware transitions generally haven't been good to Nintendo. Factoring in time lost from the COVID break on top of the Switch's continued massive success, I could see new hardware not until 2024 easily.
Click to expand...
Very little buzz? Not only IS there buzz, Famitsu, factory worker, etc., but we've been in 2023 for all of FIVE days. Writing off a year on the FIFTH DAY because "there's not enough buzz"? That's. Absurd? 😅
 
ccff said:
Personally, I think the hardware price will go up to $450 on the Switch 2. With inflation and a more expensive chip than the tegra x1. Maybe Nintendo knows a lot of people won't be happy with that price.

And for the Switch 2, a lot of the demand will come from existing Switch owners replacing their devices.
It's the next generation of a device that has sold 120 million units.

So I think it's possible that Nintendo will sell only the Switch 2 tablet for $350, excluding the dock, hdmi cable, Joy-Con, and charger.


Nintendo has already sold a switch in Japan at a discount of 5,000 yen, excluding the dock, hdmi cable, and charger. They can do something like this on the Switch 2 as well.

Of course, this requires the switch and switch 2's joycon, dock, charger, etc. to be compatible.

Or they could follow the example of PlayStation and Xbox and release download-only consoles. Because the profit margins of download games are high, even selling hardware for $100 less can be profitable in the long run. It's also possible to sell the download-only console without components like a dock or charger if you want to lower its price even further.

To conclude, it is theoretically possible for Nintendo to sell the Switch 2 at the same price as the existing Switch without compromising the performance of the Switch 2.
Click to expand...
Switch Lite become $150, Switch OLED $250 or $300 and Switch 2 $350 or $400. Switch V2 discontinued.
 
Concernt said:
Very little buzz? Not only IS there buzz, Famitsu, factory worker, etc., but we've been in 2023 for all of FIVE days. Writing off a year on the FIFTH DAY because "there's not enough buzz"? That's. Absurd? 😅
Click to expand...

There's not much really from actual developer sources, if there is a supposed launch happening in 10-11 months, then this is very, very quiet relative to other hardware platforms at 10-11 months pre-launch which I don't think is unfair to say.

Dev kits should be widely available at this point if that's the time line and if that was the case, I'd expect a few more concrete leaks than what we've been getting.

If we're t-minus 10-11 months from launch, that isn't a lot of time at all.
 
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