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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Concernt said:
No, it isn't. One statement from a journalist does not definitive evidence make. Once again I'll point you to the following:

This chip seems to already have entered manufacturing.
This chip was customised for Nintendo.
It's not financially advisable to sit on billions worth of stock for upwards of 18 months.
Nintendo is a for-profit enterprise.
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Well, technically, it isn't one statement from a journalist. It's just a statement from a very reputable source. Many financial analysts, journalists, "insiders", etc. have mentioned 2024 as their prediction
 
Truno said:
Digital Foundry was asked about their thoughts on a potential 2023 launch for the 'next-gen Switch':



TLDW - They don't think it's happening
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Having watched the video, out of those three people, one of them is hoping that new hardware will come out in 2023 and thinks it might be the case, and the two others believe we probably won't see anything until 2024, yet without providing any kind of reasoning to back up what seems to be nothing more than their personal gut feeling.

One of them does mention that from talking with devs, he "understands" that there were plans to release some sort of mid-gen refresh "at some point", and that it probably got canned by now.

Just from the way he puts it, it's pretty obvious he doesn't know anything more than any of us do.

People in this thread are so anxious about this new device that they will read way too much into even the least meaningful statements of any random journalist at this point.

This means nothing, really.
 
Guys, DF would know better than anyone. If they’re not hearing things right now then May 2023 seems highly unlikely.

When everyone was hyping up a Switch Pro before the OLED was announced, DF were like ‘nope’ even in the face of the Bloomberg articles.
 
Truno said:
Well, technically, it isn't one statement from a journalist. It's just a statement from a very reputable source. Many financial analysts, journalists, "insiders", etc. have mentioned 2024 as their prediction
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What?

He's a journalist for Eurogamer.

And he's made a statement. (Not even a statement, a comment in a podcast.)

One statement from a journalist is true. Journalists can be reputable sources.

It is, technically, one statement from a journalist we're discussing.
 
¯\(ツ)/¯ nothing about this changes my outlook. Even if there was a cancellation or delay, it’s not very useful to hear the gossip without the context behind it. That’s the real value that reporting like Bloomberg’s provides.
 
Not saying that this means anything to me but a months ago I was a strong doubter of this thing launching in H1 2023 with ToTK, yes it would be fitting but a Holiday release with a new 3D Mario game that is already over 5 years in the oven (with possibly EPD Tokyo ditching their engine that they were using for years) seemed much more fitting to me (and yes, I know that this game will still be cross-gen).
 
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OLED model release timing was ideal for a pro model. Probably in a world without covid, and thus, switch sales weren’t so high in 2020 and HW peaked was FY2019-20, Nintendo would have release a “Switch Pro” by late 2021.

Remember that covid shuffled all their plans, software like Xenoblade 3 (originally planned for late 2021), Splatoon 3 (initially aiming for summer 2021), FE Engage and Zelda TOTK were all delayed 9 months to +1 year. In a different world big software FY2021/22 lineup would have been splatoon 3, xenoblade 3, zelda totk, pokemon arceus, fe engage, etc. That killer lineup would be completely ideal for a mid-gen refresh. And thats not even speculating that software such as Bayonetta 3 could have been release much earlier.

Things are different now, so its more difficult to speculate.
 
Codename_Steam said:
Let's say Drake is launching on May 12th 2023, What are everyone’s final predictions? (Specs, Launch Line Up, Name. Reveal etc.)
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I think it's launching April 28th for one. Reveal in January, big blowout in February, press events in March, reviews out in mid April.

Launch line-up will be pretty slim, I think. At MOST, maybe Elden Ring. The launch will probably be carried more by various 4K patches for older games, with influencers given the device with a 4K version of Breath of the Wild two weeks before release to build hype.

Name, Super Nintendo Switch.
 
LoneRanger said:
OLED model release timing was ideal for a pro model. Probably in a world without covid, and thus, switch sales weren’t so high in 2020 and HW peaked was FY2019-20, Nintendo would have release a “Switch Pro” by late 2021.

Remember that covid shuffled all their plans, software like Xenoblade 3 (originally planned for late 2021), Splatoon 3 (initially aiming for summer 2021), FE Engage and Zelda TOTK were all delayed 9 months to +1 year. In a different world big software FY2021/22 lineup would have been splatoon 3, xenoblade 3, zelda totk, pokemon arceus, fe engage, etc. That killer lineup would be completely ideal for a mid-gen refresh.

Things are different now, so its more difficult to speculate.
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We know from the interview the Devs did that OLED Model was always meant to be a Switch with a better screen and kickstand. It was only made possible by the original processor getting smaller and more power efficient, since it uses smaller vents and a smaller, redesigned motherboard to make room for the new hinges.
 
Truno said:
Digital Foundry was asked about their thoughts on a potential 2023 launch for the 'next-gen Switch':



TLDW - They don't think it's happening
Click to expand...

I just watched that part. Just to clarify... Rich wants it to happen next year and thinks the Tegra Orion Nano (the one with 1024 cores) is the best candidate. Also doesn't think Nintendo is into RT and state of the art tech but would rather focus on battery life.
John and Oliver don't think Switch 2 will release in 2023. Need to run PS5 games with cutback, and be backwards compatible with Switch (John)
 
Now if nothing is announced by early february, or if the big Zelda blowout comes without anything hardware wise, I'm buying an OLED.

And it makes me mad to think that it's probably Nintendo's evil plan.
 
I'm still pegging the announcement for sometime in March. If the FY ends with no update, then I'll give up on the speculation game and check out of the thread.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
I just watched that part. Just to clarify... Rich wants it to happen next year and thinks the Tegra Orion Nano (the one with 1024 cores) is the best candidate. Also doesn't think Nintendo is into RT and state of the art tech but would rather focus on battery life.
John and Oliver don't think Switch 2 will release in 2023. Need to run PS5 games with cutback, and be backwards compatible with Switch (John)
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Gasp! The legendary "minority report." How could one of the precogs disagree???
 
Codename_Steam said:
Let's say Drake is launching on May 12th 2023, What are everyone’s final predictions? (Specs, Launch Line Up, Name. Reveal etc.)
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Launches with 3rd party ports, first party 4K upgrades, Metroid Prime Trilogy 4K, maybe Zelda 4K remasters, named "Nintendo Switch (2022 Model)" or "Nintendo Switch (Gen 2)", revealed late January or early February, $400 if Samsung, $450 if TSMC
 
Herb Alpert said:
Now if nothing is announced by early february, or if the big Zelda blowout comes without anything hardware wise, I'm buying an OLED.

And it makes me mad to think that it's probably Nintendo's evil plan.
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I didn’t buy the OLED day 1 because of all the ‘next console’ rumours. I relented shortly before Christmas last year and am now fully convinced I made the right choice.
 
Question posed to DF: How capable could a Switch 2 be if released in 2023?

Rich: Still not confirmed for 2023

John: I don't believe we'll get this in 2023

Rich: I hope it happens, Switch is losing momentum, end of life cycle
We have the jetson nano similar to potential processor in new Switch, which is a cutdown version of the automotive Tegra chip
Jetson Nano at least 2x powerful current Switch
Nintendo likely to focus on battery life instead of state of the art tech

John: At one point internally, there was a mid-gen refresh planned, whatever they do next is next-gen
I don't think it will be 2023
Nintendo concerned about the transition
They need to ensure BC
Needs to have a clear name
First launch since new leadership

Oliver: If it ends up with T239 it will be a massive increase in power, along with all kinds of tech DLSS, RT

Rich: 2 versions of Jetson Nano, 1024 vs 2048 CUDA cores
Would make sense for Nintendo handheld

Oliver: Switch has it stands 256 core Maxwell, state of the art in 2015
I don't think there will be a new Switch in '23
Remains to be seen how they handle transition, like with PSVR2

John: Lack of PSVR2 BC makes sense, much better chance with Switch 2 BC
It needs to run PS5 / Series X quality games with cutbacks, but make it easier for devs to bring projects

Rich: They can't go back from the Switch model due to platform consolidation
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That's most of the notes I took related to this question.

The 'mid-gen refresh' being planned 'at one point' seems detached from the 'is [the next-gen console] coming in 2023' discussion, in which John and Oliver don't think we'll see it and Rich hopes we do. Also yay for Oliver bringing up T239.

Personally I didn't interpret anything conclusive. I can believe the mid-gen refresh was Mariko.

We'll see how the next couple of months pan out. Time is meaningless. Remember the BotW2 launch timing update? That was in March. I can wait a bit longer to write off H1 2023 or the entirety of it.
 
From my point of view the Switch Oled was supposed to be the pro version, it just seemed like an odd move to suddenly release a switch OLED 2 years after the og switch revision back in 2019.

Either Nintendo was keen on releasing a switch pro using a mariko+ soc with an oled screen but decided the performance they were getting out of the switch pro wasn't enough for their liking and repurposed the Pro to the OLED model switch or I'm crazy and Nintendo really wanted an OLED screen on the switch.
 
So I'm not knowledgeable about hardware stuff but I am a hell of a lurker and I'm starting to wonder..

IIRC Nate said a ways back that Nintendo wasn't happy with the battery life of the new hardware, and that was during the time we were still using the Dane name. Then the Nvidia leak showed off Drake, which was far stronger hardware than we expected (especially the higher SM count), and IIRC Dane's name was somewhere in the leak (suggesting it might've existed) but Drake was definitely what they're building for Nintendo now. And now DF says there was a refresh model that was canned.

Is it possible that Dane was going to be the new model, but being dissatisfied with the power to battery ratio Nintendo and Nvidia ditched it for a more advanced node with a higher SM count and that's the Drake?

Sorry if I'm a bit over my head here. 😅
 
chocolate_supra said:
So I'm not knowledgeable about hardware stuff but I am a hell of a lurker and I'm starting to wonder..

IIRC Nate said a ways back that Nintendo wasn't happy with the battery life of the new hardware, and that was during the time we were still using the Dane name. Then the Nvidia leak showed off Drake, which was far stronger hardware than we expected (especially the higher SM count), and IIRC Dane's name was somewhere in the leak (suggesting it might've existed) but Drake was definitely what they're building for Nintendo now. And now DF says there was a refresh model that was canned.

Is it possible that Dane was going to be the new model, but being dissatisfied with the power to battery ratio Nintendo and Nvidia ditched it for a more advanced node with a higher SM count and that's the Drake?

Sorry if I'm a bit over my head here. 😅
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very tinfoil imo. There's no concrete evidence T239 was ever Dane.
 
Serif said:
Question posed to DF: How capable could a Switch 2 be if released in 2023?



That's most of the notes I took related to this question.

The 'mid-gen refresh' being planned 'at one point' seems detached from the 'is [the next-gen console] coming in 2023' discussion, in which John and Oliver don't think we'll see it and Rich hopes we do. Also yay for Oliver bringing up T239.

Personally I didn't interpret anything conclusive. I can believe the mid-gen refresh was Mariko.

We'll see how the next couple of months pan out. Time is meaningless. Remember the BotW2 launch timing update? That was in March. I can wait a bit longer to write off H1 2023 or the entirety of it.
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Thanks for the transcript. Sure seems like all John is saying here is that there was a revision planned but cancelled, so whatever this is will be a next gen model and not a revision.

Doesn't say anything about Drake specifically being canned or anything recent being canned.
 
HankyPanky said:
5nm Samsung Drake for 2024? wait a while to bring the cost down for cheap Nintendo, Mario Kart DLC was prophetic all along.
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Nintendo and Nvidia probably needs to start securing process node capacity now if Nintendo's planning a 2024 launch. So I don't think the cost's necessarily the deciding factor for a hypothetical 2024 launch.
 
Quailman said:
From my point of view the Switch Oled was supposed to be the pro version, it just seemed like an odd move to suddenly release a switch OLED 2 years after the og switch revision back in 2019.
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Yeah, that's my understanding too, and it becomes pretty obvious since it seems that ToTK was late 2021 title before the world of covid which would be a perfect game to launch alongside the device. Their release schedule changed completely so they at least launch Dread alongside it.
 
I want to note that DF seems caught on thinking this will be based on the Jetson Nano rather than referring to the Drake, even when they know it's a thing. Feels like dodging the question.

Drake fits all the requirements they laid out, too, and appears to be in production. Enough to run PS5 games with cutbacks, enough to virtualize the base Switch for compatibility, and as we've seen, apparently power efficient enough for a Switch.

Don't lose hope!
 
Quailman said:
From my point of view the Switch Oled was supposed to be the pro version, it just seemed like an odd move to suddenly release a switch OLED 2 years after the og switch revision back in 2019.

Either Nintendo was keen on releasing a switch pro using a mariko+ soc with an oled screen but decided the performance they were getting out of the switch pro wasn't enough for their liking and repurposed the Pro to the OLED model switch or I'm crazy and Nintendo really wanted an OLED screen on the switch.
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LukasManak22 said:
Yeah, that's my understanding too, and it becomes pretty obvious since it seems that ToTK was late 2021 title before the world of covid which would be a perfect game to launch alongside the device. Their release schedule changed completely so they at least launch Dread alongside it.
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Oddly enough we know just about enough to say this was never the case. The redbox version in 2019 was likely the one which would have been positioned as a pro. The OLED model was always just a screen refresh, there is zero evidence to suggest it was ever going to have any sort of increased processing capacity.
 
chocolate_supra said:
So I'm not knowledgeable about hardware stuff but I am a hell of a lurker and I'm starting to wonder..

IIRC Nate said a ways back that Nintendo wasn't happy with the battery life of the new hardware, and that was during the time we were still using the Dane name. Then the Nvidia leak showed off Drake, which was far stronger hardware than we expected (especially the higher SM count), and IIRC Dane's name was somewhere in the leak (suggesting it might've existed) but Drake was definitely what they're building for Nintendo now. And now DF says there was a refresh model that was canned.

Is it possible that Dane was going to be the new model, but being dissatisfied with the power to battery ratio Nintendo and Nvidia ditched it for a more advanced node with a higher SM count and that's the Drake?

Sorry if I'm a bit over my head here. 😅
Click to expand...
Wasn't "Dane" just a name Kopite got wrong? Meaning it never really "existed", since it was Drake all along. I remember some people in here discussing this some days ago... please feel free to correct me!

For me, I'll just wait until January ends to make a proper judgement of the situation. If nothing comes up by then, then so be it.

Also, if I see any one of you heckling the DF folks about this, I will be contacting the cyber police. Maybe they're right, maybe they're mistaken. At the end of the day, we're all just speculating based on the info we believe to be the most correct and up-to-date / realistic.
 
yohoopzcrazy said:
Wasn't "Dane" just a name Kopite got wrong? Meaning it never really "existed", since it was Drake all along. I remember some people in here discussing this some days ago... please feel free to correct me!
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iirc (and it's a big iirc) dane was found in a list of keywords in the nvidia hack. don't remember the context though
 
Z0m3le said:
The Linux updates are weeks old and still happening, there is testing going on right now.

Heck just last week, there was an update from the Splatoon 3 oled model leaker, saying that he saw a new Switch model casing, and that full production is starting in January. Then he deleted his posts.

Software also could be delayed outside of the launch window, this is not a new platform, just a much more powerful new model with next gen performance.
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vincemcmahon.gif
 
Skittzo said:
Oddly enough we know just about enough to say this was never the case. The redbox version in 2019 was likely the one which would have been positioned as a pro. The OLED model was always just a screen refresh, there is zero evidence to suggest it was ever going to have any sort of increased processing capacity.
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And an interview confirming the improved power efficiency of Mariko and motherboard shrinkage being the reason it was possible.

OLED Model was more like the Xbox One S of Switch. A Switch XL.
 
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Kevin said:
FINALLY we are all starting to embrace the 2024 timeline. Welcome Aboard, I kept the seats warm for you guys while I waited for you all. I know it's disorienting the first time arriving here but you'll get use to it. :)
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why keep the seats warm when 2024 is basically putting the hype on ice for a year
 
Raccoon said:
idk I don't see 2024 as a moment of camaraderie, for me at least it'll mean tapping out for a long time
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Yup I tapped out this year. I played Xenoblade Chronicles 1 and 2, Monster Hunter Stories 2, a few others and I just couldn't get over how bad these looked and ran. I play on a nice 65 inch 4K OLED. I just can't do it anymore. Mostly moved to Switch. Mind you, I'm not happy with Nintendo dragging this out but it's out of my control. I can't get them to budge so I just moved on. Nintendo Time!

EDIT: I will play Zelda but that's the only title I see myself playing in 2023 on Switch.
 
Kevin said:
FINALLY we are all starting to embrace the 2024 timeline. Welcome Aboard, I kept the seats warm for you guys while I waited for you all. I know it's disorienting the first time arriving here but you'll get use to it. :)
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Just wanted to chime in for one second, but this type of commentary is annoying and not welcome at all. There’s multiple users that use this type of antagonism and then wonder why people respond the way they do to them. Please and kindly, don’t do this.
 
Kevin said:
FINALLY we are all starting to embrace the 2024 timeline. Welcome Aboard, I kept the seats warm for you guys while I waited for you all. I know it's disorienting the first time arriving here but you'll get use to it. :)
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Speak for yourself please.
 
Z0m3le said:
The Linux updates are weeks old and still happening, there is testing going on right now.

Heck just last week, there was an update from the Splatoon 3 oled model leaker, saying that he saw a new Switch model casing, and that full production is starting in January. Then he deleted his posts.

Software also could be delayed outside of the launch window, this is not a new platform, just a much more powerful new model with next gen performance.
Click to expand...

Like the PS4 to PS5 then?
 
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