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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
You know, the stuff about DLSS 3.0 and its exclusivity to Ada Lovelace architecture reminds me of how kopite7kimi (the NVIDIA leaker on Twitter) spent all of 2021 insisting that Orin and Drake (then known in rumors as Dane) were built on an 8nm node and were based on Lovelace:




Even assuming that Drake's move to a better node was a late decision some time in 2021, it still makes me wonder what the whole Lovelace thing was about. Was the AV1 encoding enough to confuse his sources about what architecture it was built on? Or does Drake have something more?

This SoC breaks some precedents with how NVIDIA normally does things, so while it doesn't seem likely at the moment, it also wouldn't surprise me to somehow see fourth-generation tensor cores on it. The biggest issue with DLSS so far has been the general lack of deep implementation by most developers (since it's not worth spending a significant amount of time implementing something only a small portion of players can use), so if NVIDIA sees the new Switch as a way to expand DLSS marketability for developers, they might have gone the extra mile to get Nintendo to agree to all the bells and whistles so the latest versions of DLSS can be on there.
 
Dakhil said:
There's a rumour about Nvidia asking TSMC to quickly mass produce more A100 and H100 GPUs for customers in China before the US sanctions take effect, which is around March of 2023 for the A100 GPUs and September of 2023 for the H100 GPUs. (And I do think there's definitely grains of truth to the rumour, especially with Nvidia being negatively affected by the US sanctions.)

So I still believe TSMC's N6 process node's still a possibility for Drake, especially if Nvidia prioritising H100 GPUs and Ada GPUs for TSMC's 4N process node, which I believe is the case.
Click to expand...
Just to add, and to remind people, I think one reason I think TSMC's N6 process node's still a possibility is because the one product that I think currently uses the Cortex-A78C is BlueField-3, which has up to 16 Armv8.2+ Cortex-A78 cores and is fabricated using TSMC's 7N process node.

The Cortex-A78C can support Armv8.4 and Armv8.6-A, and the Cortex-A78 can't.

Although having four clusters of 4 Cortex-A78 cores for a total of 16 Cortex-A78 cores is theoretically possible, I imagine there's too much latency from having four CPU clusters, which I imagine is a huge deal breaker for datacentre chips. So I think Nvidia used two clusters of 8 Cortex-A78C cores for BlueField-3 for that reason.

And TSMC has mentioned wanting to shift customers from TSMC's N7 process node to TSMC's N6 process node. The only difference between TSMC's N6 process node and TSMC's N7 process node, outside of lithography, with TSMC's N6 process node using EUV lithography and TSMC's N7 process node using DUV lithography, is 18% higher logic density, with performance and power consumption practically being the same between TSMC's N6 process node and TSMC's N7 process node. And I imagine there could be less work involved optimising the Cortex-A78C for Nintendo's specifications if Nintendo and Nvidia decide to fabricate Drake using TSMC's N6 process node since I imagine Nvidia already did most of the work optimising the Cortex-A78C for TSMC's 7 nm** process node with BlueField-3.

** → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies
Anyways, Nintendo's six month earning release is on 8 November 2022. (A day after my birthday.)
 
If it'll launch next year here's what I predict the timeline to be

1. First reveal December/January: Just hardware and new features.
2. In depth presentation or Direct February/March: Software heavy presentation
3. Release April/May: The Mario movie will be released in April and a system plus a Mario game will help give a huge push.
 
carbonaxiom said:
This SoC breaks some precedents with how NVIDIA normally does things, so while it doesn't seem likely at the moment, it also wouldn't surprise me to somehow see fourth-generation tensor cores on it. The biggest issue with DLSS so far has been the general lack of deep implementation by most developers (since it's not worth spending a significant amount of time implementing something only a small portion of players can use), so if NVIDIA sees the new Switch as a way to expand DLSS marketability for developers, they might have gone the extra mile to get Nintendo to agree to all the bells and whistles so the latest versions of DLSS can be on there.
Click to expand...
Well, the illegal Nvidia leaks does mention that the Tensor cores in Drake are much closer to the Tensor cores in consumer Ampere GPUs in comparison to the Tensor cores in Orin.

I highly doubt there can be major changes to Drake from when the illegal Nvidia leaks happened to now.
 
On that topic of DLSS 3, this is allegedly the public reason:
im94428ll3p91.png


So, per the post linked to by Dakhil, we know from the hack that the tensor cores are that of desktop Ampere. But can we confirm that the OFA is of the Ampere generation?
 
When you come back later this evening to see 8 new pages because of a CPU leak for Drake ._.
vHdrinZ.gif


This is some exciting stuff. I didn't expect less, but I'm glad we got 8 CPU cores out of the way.
 
carbonaxiom said:
You know, the stuff about DLSS 3.0 and its exclusivity to Ada Lovelace architecture reminds me of how kopite7kimi (the NVIDIA leaker on Twitter) spent all of 2021 insisting that Orin and Drake (then known in rumors as Dane) were built on an 8nm node and were based on Lovelace:




Even assuming that Drake's move to a better node was a late decision some time in 2021, it still makes me wonder what the whole Lovelace thing was about. Was the AV1 encoding enough to confuse his sources about what architecture it was built on? Or does Drake have something more?

This SoC breaks some precedents with how NVIDIA normally does things, so while it doesn't seem likely at the moment, it also wouldn't surprise me to somehow see fourth-generation tensor cores on it. The biggest issue with DLSS so far has been the general lack of deep implementation by most developers (since it's not worth spending a significant amount of time implementing something only a small portion of players can use), so if NVIDIA sees the new Switch as a way to expand DLSS marketability for developers, they might have gone the extra mile to get Nintendo to agree to all the bells and whistles so the latest versions of DLSS can be on there.
Click to expand...

I don't follow him closely, but I get the impression that he often begins with somewhat off information about products early in development, and then it gets more and more accurate the closer to announcement or release things get. Who knows whether that's due to plans changing, misinterpretations, speculation, or what, but I don't think it's implausible for him to have simply assumed and been mistaken about the connection between Ada and Orin/Drake.

As for DLSS 3 on the new Switch model, I highly doubt it will happen, even if it was technically possible. DLSS 2 was only just in development when this project kicked off, with Nvidia demoing it to Nintendo before it was even publicly announced. Their plans for DLSS integration would have been finalized well in advance of DLSS 3 being on the table. I also don't personally think the interpolation feature of DLSS 3 makes it all that compelling for Nintendo compared to the super resolution which they'll get with DLSS 2.
 
They'll have to announce it at some point or else the entire thing is going to leak when it goes into full production. Wasn't the original Switch leaked that way almost immediately? Are they willing to risk waiting potentially 4-5 months into manufacturing to announce it in Feb/March?
 
Magic-Man said:
It's not coming in February or March. If anything it launches with Tears of the Kingdom. If it does, the normal announcement to release window (around three or four months) works perfectly.
Click to expand...
Do you have a crystal ball? we just know that this thing is coming in 2023 H1, this new hardware can perfectly launch in early march like the OG Switch, or early April starting with the new fiscal year. The OG switch was announced with a gap of 6 months.
With an announcement Im talking about a teaser this year with a full presentation early next year.
 
SMALLVILLE BOY said:
Do you have a crystal ball? we just know that this thing is coming in 2023 H1, this new hardware can perfectly launch in early march like the OG Switch, or early April starting with the new fiscal year. The OG switch was announced with a gap of 6 months.
With an announcement Im talking about a teaser this year with a full presentation early next year.
Click to expand...
Nintendo only has a Kirby port in late February and nothing in March. They also launched two of the current three Switch models with Zelda games. And this is only a revision, not a brand new console replacing a dying one like the OG Switch was.
 
Dakhil said:
Well, the illegal Nvidia leaks does mention that the Tensor cores in Drake are much closer to the Tensor cores in consumer Ampere GPUs in comparison to the Tensor cores in Orin.

I highly doubt there can be major changes to Drake from when the illegal Nvidia leaks happened to now.
Click to expand...

I hadn't seen this part of the leak before. Yes, this effectively confirms it wouldn't be fourth-generation tensor cores. Although the question about what version of the optical flow accelerator is on Drake remains. As @Look over there mentioned with the screenshot above, that's the biggest reason why it can't be implemented on older cards.

Either way, DLSS 2 would be more than enough to make games look more up to par with the current generation of games.

LiC said:
As for DLSS 3 on the new Switch model, I highly doubt it will happen, even if it was technically possible. DLSS 2 was only just in development when this project kicked off, with Nvidia demoing it to Nintendo before it was even publicly announced. Their plans for DLSS integration would have been finalized well in advance of DLSS 3 being on the table. I also don't personally think the interpolation feature of DLSS 3 makes it all that compelling for Nintendo compared to the super resolution which they'll get with DLSS 2.
Click to expand...

Yes, at least with the way it was showcased today, having to run certain frames at the highest native quality possible would probably create a big performance hit on the hardware the new Switch would be running on. The feature currently seems to be predicated on the idea that any card running it will have plenty of local resources available to handle it.
 
Procheno said:
They'll have to announce it at some point or else the entire thing is going to leak when it goes into full production. Wasn't the original Switch leaked that way almost immediately? Are they willing to risk waiting potentially 4-5 months into manufacturing to announce it in Feb/March?
Click to expand...
The Nintendo Switch Lite was announced two months ahead of time. The OLED was announced three months ahead of time. I expect that trend to carry on here.
 
SMALLVILLE BOY said:
Because of timing, if the new harware is coming in early 2023 (february, march, may) you need time to do marketing.
Click to expand...
So your suggesting them to make two concurrent marketing campaigns for both the old & new hardware. While also trying to tell people to buy their current stuff while also not telling not to but that because newer stuff is coming out within 1-2 months.

Sounds like a mess waiting to happen. Also positions them for stuff to go wrong on either end.
Magic-Man said:
Nintendo only has a Kirby port in late February and nothing in March. They also launched two of the current three Switch models with Zelda games. And this is only a revision, not a brand new console replacing a dying one like the OG Switch was.
Click to expand...
For all intents & purposes this device will essentially be a new console. Their is nothing revision about it. Your also missing a game in January. And, we go through this song & dance every year with the first Direct revealing March games.
 
Magic-Man said:
Nintendo only has a Kirby port in late February and nothing in March. They also launched two of the current three Switch models with Zelda games. And this is only a revision, not a brand new console replacing a dying one like the OG Switch was.
Click to expand...
Yeah, a launch at the same time with Zelda ToTK is very likely but not set in stone, but its still possible a teaser this year with a full presentation early next year.
 
0
Tentacle-tropes said:
So your suggesting them to make two concurrent marketing campaigns for both the old & new hardware. While also trying to tell people to buy their current stuff while also not telling not to but that because newer stuff is coming out within 1-2 months.

Sounds like a mess waiting to happen. Also positions them for stuff to go wrong on either end.

For all intents & purposes this device will essentially be a new console. Their is nothing revision about it. Your also missing a game in January. And, we go through this song & dance every year with the first Direct revealing March games.
Click to expand...
That user brought up February and March, so I talked about the releases for those months. Nintendo wouldn't release a new console in January anyways. It's a revision and successor in one. It's like a Xbox One X or PS4 Pro.
 
Magic-Man said:
The Nintendo Switch Lite was announced two months ahead of time. The OLED was announced three months ahead of time. I expect that trend to carry on here.
Click to expand...
Yeah but they were virtually the same exact machine just with minor component adjustments sold as new models
 
ShaunSwitch said:
Wow, what an incredible post from a new user. This got me super excited!

I guess the question now is, TSMC 6NM or TSMC 4NM? We know nvidia was facing fines for reduced 40 series gpu demand vs the capacity reserved. So which node do you think is more likely?

I am seriously entertaining the idea this SoC is manufactured on the same node as the 40 series GPUs. If this is the case a 2GHZ CPU Clock and that 1.3GHZ docked GPU clock seem very reasonable.

In fact I'm happy to stake that as my prediction for this device.

4nm.
8 A78C @ 2GHZ
12SM @ 460MHZ Handheld, 1.3GHZ Docked.
12GB LPDDR5 RAM @102GB/S
256GB EUFS Storage.

Will make the steam deck look like a toy, Let's go!

Oh damn I am going to have to buy a new Shield TV aren't I?
Click to expand...
I'm not betting on max clocks or 4nm. I'm guessing 6nm or 5nm at 90% of those clocks speeds for CPU and GPU as the best case scenario. That's just me.
Gay Bowser said:
Yep. Modern gaming engines are highly scalable as far as graphics are concerned, and Drake has the advantage of being able to run at a lower resolution and use DLSS. The CPU was always going to be the larger sticking point as far as the potential for ports was concerned, so eight symmetric cores in encouraging.

Now we just need to know RAM.
Click to expand...
Hermii said:
Aside from clock speeds, there was nothing custom about the tx1 in the switch.
Click to expand...
4GB of RAM. Capcom rumor about asking Nintendo to bump from 3GB to 4GB being legit or not... Nvidia Shield only has 3GB of RAM.
oldpuck said:
It's definitely outdated, as it refers to Orin as also simulated/FPGA hardware, and Orin is now in production, and using LPDDR5 RAM.

It does confirm that Nvidia has been working on Linux for Drake for sometime (L4T is Linux For Tegra), and that the drops to mainline are the end of that effort, not the beginning. And that Orin and Drake were developed in tandem with each other, which tracks with everything else we know, again implying that they were ready for production around the same time. And that Drake has half the memory controller channels of Orin, which tracks with everything else we know about the Drake memory subsystem.
Click to expand...
This is interesting... Remember a while back (a week ago), Polygon said one of their sources had an older dev kit with 6GB of RAM, and a lot of people here thought 6GB of RAM was impossible (for LPDDR5 anyway... or at least 2 modules). Perhaps the older kit from last year was LPDDR4 at 6GB
 
0
Raccoon said:
ah, I see what you mean. as products though they were as straight of revisions as they could be
Click to expand...
I'm kinda expecting this to be a Xbox One X situation. The Switch Pro will replace the original Switch and maybe the OLED. The Switch Lite sticks around as a cheap alternative. All games (minus a couple third party exclusives) continue to be compatible with the OG Switch. Basically it's a successor but it's looked at as a revision.
 
Branduil said:
Drake is far, far more of an upgrade than One X. It's not even close.
Click to expand...
A Nintendo Switch 2 makes no sense next year given how this years software schedule turned out. You don't rush a bunch of tentpole releases out before a new console, you do that after. Splatoon 3, Xenoblade, Mario + Rabbids, Pokemon. You don't want to launch a brand new console AFTER those are out. You don't continue DLC for the previous console several months after a new console launch. The only way this makes sense is if it's pushed and marketed as a Pro.
 
Magic-Man said:
I'm kinda expecting this to be a Xbox One X situation. The Switch Pro will replace the original Switch and maybe the OLED. The Switch Lite sticks around as a cheap alternative. All games (minus a couple third party exclusives) continue to be compatible with the OG Switch. Basically it's a successor but it's looked at as a revision.
Click to expand...
that doesnt sounds enticing at all! idk idk just announce a successor and crossgen until switch fades away, the only difference is naming because we all know the third pillar non ecziste
 
0
Magic-Man said:
A Nintendo Switch 2 makes no sense next year given how this years software schedule turned out. You don't rush a bunch of tentpole releases out before a new console, you do that after. Splatoon 3, Xenoblade, Mario + Rabbids, Pokemon. You don't want to launch a brand new console AFTER those are out. You don't continue DLC for the previous console several months after a new console launch. The only way this makes sense is if it's pushed and marketed as a Pro.
Click to expand...
Who says Nintendo is rushing? They could just be releasing software that is in their pipeline. The device is a Switch 2, how they market it doesn’t really matter. There will most likely be a cross-gen period between the two devices. However there will be games that the OG cannot run which will only increase as time goes on.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
Who says Nintendo is rushing? They could just be releasing software that is in their pipeline. The device is a Switch 2, how they market it doesn’t really matter. There will most likely be a cross-gen period between the two devices. However there will be games that the OG cannot run which will only increase as time goes on.
Click to expand...
If it was a Switch 2, Nintendo would hold back titles for the launch period. Especially massive tentpole titles. Yes, there will be a cross-gen period, but that doesn't change anything. It's simply not how gaming companies operate. Both Microsoft and Sony held back titles for their new systems for a big launch.
 
olobolger said:
This is how the Linux kernel development (and some other OSS projects) works. What you are seeing there is a mailing list being published in a traditional HTTP accessible website as a way of preserving/accessing it.

This has been the way the kernel has been developed since it was born. It could be seen as cumbersome with today's internet collaboration tools standards, but it's something that worked back in the 90s up until now. The archives exist because without them, it would be impossible to follow the discussion unless you are subscribed to the mailing list, and to the specific discussions that arise in there. There are some other archives out there. For example, the discussion that brought us the T239 support into the kernel can also be accessed in here:


LKML is just another archive of the Linux Kernel Mailing List.


And to expand into this, the specific file of the Linux kernel source code that contains Tegra cores, CPU frequencies, etc. is in here:

github.com

linux/drivers/cpufreq/tegra194-cpufreq.c at master · torvalds/linux

Linux kernel source tree. Contribute to torvalds/linux development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com github.com

Nvidia is a Linux Kernel contributor. So, an engineer from them is making the necessary changes in the code to add support for T239. He writes to the mailing list, proposing some changes to that file:

C: 
> diff --git a/drivers/cpufreq/tegra194-cpufreq.c b/drivers/cpufreq/tegra194-cpufreq.c
> index 1216046cf4c2..f38a760da61b 100644
> --- a/drivers/cpufreq/tegra194-cpufreq.c
> +++ b/drivers/cpufreq/tegra194-cpufreq.c
> @@ -38,14 +38,6 @@
>  /* cpufreq transisition latency */
>  #define TEGRA_CPUFREQ_TRANSITION_LATENCY (300 * 1000) /* unit in nanoseconds */
>
> -enum cluster {
> -    CLUSTER0,
> -    CLUSTER1,
> -    CLUSTER2,
> -    CLUSTER3,
> -    MAX_CLUSTERS,
> -};
> -
>  struct tegra_cpu_ctr {
>      u32 cpu;
>      u32 coreclk_cnt, last_coreclk_cnt;
> @@ -67,12 +59,12 @@ struct tegra_cpufreq_ops {
>  struct tegra_cpufreq_soc {
>      struct tegra_cpufreq_ops *ops;
>      int maxcpus_per_cluster;
> +    size_t num_clusters;
>      phys_addr_t actmon_cntr_base;
>  };
>
>  struct tegra194_cpufreq_data {
>      void __iomem *regs;
> -    size_t num_clusters;
>      struct cpufreq_frequency_table **tables;
>      const struct tegra_cpufreq_soc *soc;
>  };
> @@ -166,6 +158,14 @@ static const struct tegra_cpufreq_soc tegra234_cpufreq_soc = {
>      .ops = &tegra234_cpufreq_ops,
>      .actmon_cntr_base = 0x9000,
>      .maxcpus_per_cluster = 4,
> +    .num_clusters = 3,
> +};
> +
> +const struct tegra_cpufreq_soc tegra239_cpufreq_soc = {
> +    .ops = &tegra234_cpufreq_ops,
> +    .actmon_cntr_base = 0x4000,
> +    .maxcpus_per_cluster = 8,
> +    .num_clusters = 1,
>  };
>
>  static void tegra194_get_cpu_cluster_id(u32 cpu, u32 *cpuid, u32 *clusterid)
> @@ -382,7 +382,7 @@ static int tegra194_cpufreq_init(struct cpufreq_policy *policy)
>
>      data->soc->ops->get_cpu_cluster_id(policy->cpu, NULL, &clusterid);
>
> -    if (clusterid >= data->num_clusters || !data->tables[clusterid])
> +    if (clusterid >= data->soc->num_clusters || !data->tables[clusterid])
>          return -EINVAL;
>
>      start_cpu = rounddown(policy->cpu, maxcpus_per_cluster);
> @@ -433,6 +433,7 @@ static struct tegra_cpufreq_ops tegra194_cpufreq_ops = {
>  static const struct tegra_cpufreq_soc tegra194_cpufreq_soc = {
>      .ops = &tegra194_cpufreq_ops,
>      .maxcpus_per_cluster = 2,
> +    .num_clusters = 4,
>  };
>
>  static void tegra194_cpufreq_free_resources(void)
> @@ -525,15 +526,14 @@ static int tegra194_cpufreq_probe(struct platform_device *pdev)
>
>      soc = of_device_get_match_data(&pdev->dev);
>
> -    if (soc->ops && soc->maxcpus_per_cluster) {
> +    if (soc->ops && soc->maxcpus_per_cluster && soc->num_clusters) {
>          data->soc = soc;
>      } else {
>          dev_err(&pdev->dev, "soc data missing\n");
>          return -EINVAL;
>      }
>
> -    data->num_clusters = MAX_CLUSTERS;
> -    data->tables = devm_kcalloc(&pdev->dev, data->num_clusters,
> +    data->tables = devm_kcalloc(&pdev->dev, data->soc->num_clusters,
>                      sizeof(*data->tables), GFP_KERNEL);
>      if (!data->tables)
>          return -ENOMEM;
> @@ -558,7 +558,7 @@ static int tegra194_cpufreq_probe(struct platform_device *pdev)
>          goto put_bpmp;
>      }
>
> -    for (i = 0; i < data->num_clusters; i++) {
> +    for (i = 0; i < data->soc->num_clusters; i++) {
>          data->tables[i] = init_freq_table(pdev, bpmp, i);
>          if (IS_ERR(data->tables[i])) {
>              err = PTR_ERR(data->tables[i]);
> @@ -590,6 +590,7 @@ static int tegra194_cpufreq_remove(struct platform_device *pdev)
>  static const struct of_device_id tegra194_cpufreq_of_match[] = {
>      { .compatible = "nvidia,tegra194-ccplex", .data = &tegra194_cpufreq_soc },
>      { .compatible = "nvidia,tegra234-ccplex-cluster", .data = &tegra234_cpufreq_soc },
> +    { .compatible = "nvidia,tegra239-ccplex-cluster", .data = &tegra239_cpufreq_soc },
>      { /* sentinel */ }
>  };
>
> --
> 2.17.1
>


And then another engineer reviews them and makes some comments around it (in this case it seems all of them are around consistency in the way of naming the variables, etc.). When they agree on the best course of action, the changes will be merged into the code, and the next Linux release will then include support for that CPU.

The engineer submitting the changes just wrote today on the mailing list, saying that the v2 of the changes addressing the comments will come from their part soon:

Click to expand...
Wow that was so thorough - thanks for that, super interesting and definitely helped me further!
 
Hajeman said:
Nintendo hasn't named their consoles or handhelds with No.2 after the name. So for a Drake it's mostly will be named as a Super Switch or Switch Advance
Click to expand...
They never had a hybrid console/handheld, either…until they did.

I don’t think we know anywhere near enough about Nintendo’s plans for this thing to say that it’s most likely to be named with one out of two adjectives.
Magic-Man said:
A Nintendo Switch 2 makes no sense next year given how this years software schedule turned out. You don't rush a bunch of tentpole releases out before a new console, you do that after. Splatoon 3, Xenoblade, Mario + Rabbids, Pokemon. You don't want to launch a brand new console AFTER those are out. You don't continue DLC for the previous console several months after a new console launch. The only way this makes sense is if it's pushed and marketed as a Pro.
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree. Nintendo’s often had a problem of not supporting their systems up to the point where the successor comes out; look at how light 2011 was for the Wii, for example, and the Wii U didn’t came out in November 2012. So maybe Nintendo has simply finally learned to walk and chew gum at the same time, with regards to supporting the old console while lining up a launch for the new one?

Your rule about not lining up tentpoles releases in the last year of a system’s life isn’t some sort of universal constant; it doesn’t hold true for Nintendo’s competition. TLOU was released less than six months before the PS4 came out and TLOU2 was released less than six months before the PS5 came out, and those are Sony’s biggest, most expensive, and most prestigious games. And even if it did hold true before, it doesn’t necessarily hold true now, in the era of long cross-gen periods where multiple consoles are supported at once as the audience gradually transitions. It seems like, no matter how Nintendo names or markets this new system, it’s going to have the same sort of gentle transition that the home consoles do now. I don’t think any one’s expecting next May or whatever to roll around and Nintendo to suddenly require Drake for all of their releases going forward. In such a world, maybe releasing Splatoon in a console’s “final year” does make more sense?

Finally, a Pokémon generation basically always comes out at the end of a system’s life, because they don’t want to tie a new generation to new hardware until it’s at least a few years old. Black & White was released just before the 3DS came out and Sun & Moon came out just before the Switch came out. In no way is Scarlet & Violet an indication that a new generation of Switch can’t be imminent. If anything, historically it’s an indicator of the opposite.
 
Magic-Man said:
If it was a Switch 2, Nintendo would hold back titles for the launch period. Especially massive tentpole titles. Yes, there will be a cross-gen period, but that doesn't change anything. It's simply not how gaming companies operate. Both Microsoft and Sony held back titles for their new systems for a big launch.
Click to expand...
Loz Tears of the Kingdom: Am I a joke to you?!

Besides that, several other games could have been delayed to release with Drake's launch window. Pikmin 4 has been in development since 2015. Rumors about MP1 Remaster have been going about for like a year now, and it could be a perfect show case for 4k IMO.
Magic-Man said:
A Nintendo Switch 2 makes no sense next year given how this years software schedule turned out. You don't rush a bunch of tentpole releases out before a new console, you do that after. Splatoon 3, Xenoblade, Mario + Rabbids, Pokemon. You don't want to launch a brand new console AFTER those are out. You don't continue DLC for the previous console several months after a new console launch. The only way this makes sense is if it's pushed and marketed as a Pro.
Click to expand...
That shouldn't really change much. We should expect backwards compatibility with Drake, as well as enhanced versions of games on Drake via patch or added compilation via separate sku .. And switch support isn't going anywhere for years.
 
Magic-Man said:
If it was a Switch 2, Nintendo would hold back titles for the launch period. Especially massive tentpole titles. Yes, there will be a cross-gen period, but that doesn't change anything. It's simply not how gaming companies operate. Both Microsoft and Sony held back titles for their new systems for a big launch.
Click to expand...
Which titles would those be because I seem to remember people grumbling about MS’ releases on the XBO & XSX with their new machine. Sony back tracked on that fast after declaring generations were still a thing. I also remember Nintendo getting burned in between transitions with the Wii & DS because they “held back” software thus creating months of nothing.

At this point software is too fluid to hold back. Release when you can & people can still buy for new hardware. Otherwise there is zero point in releasing this & next year’s slate of games. Switch 2 can still release while getting major tent pole releases that came out before hand while also still sharing releases up to a certain point. However, there will be games that Switch cannot run that 2 can which is something that MS or Sony revisions did.

Edit: as a note to the above post I would say that Pikmin probably has not been in dev since 2015. Probably in some form of pre production, shelved, or tinkered till the announcement.
 
0
Gay Bowser said:
They never had a hybrid console/handheld, either…until they did.

I don’t think we know anywhere near enough about Nintendo’s plans for this thing to say that it’s most likely to be named with one out of two adjectives.

I respectfully disagree. Nintendo’s often had a problem of not supporting their systems up to the point where the successor comes out; look at how light 2011 was for the Wii, for example, and the Wii U didn’t came out in November 2012. So maybe Nintendo has simply finally learned to walk and chew gum at the same time, with regards to supporting the old console while lining up a launch for the new one?

Your rule about not lining up tentpoles releases in the last year of a system’s life isn’t some sort of universal constant; it doesn’t hold true for Nintendo’s competition. TLOU was released less than six months before the PS4 came out and TLOU2 was released less than six months before the PS5 came out, and those are Sony’s biggest, most expensive, and most prestigious games. And even if it did hold true before, it doesn’t necessarily hold true now, in the era of long cross-gen periods where multiple consoles are supported at once as the audience gradually transitions. It seems like, no matter how Nintendo names or markets this new system, it’s going to have the same sort of gentle transition that the home consoles do now. I don’t think any one’s expecting next May or whatever to roll around and Nintendo to suddenly require Drake for all of their releases going forward. In such a world, maybe releasing Splatoon in a console’s “final year” does make more sense?

Finally, a Pokémon generation basically always comes out at the end of a system’s life, because they don’t want to tie a new generation to new hardware until it’s at least a few years old. Black & White was released just before the 3DS came out and Sun & Moon came out just before the Switch came out. In no way is Scarlet & Violet an indication that a new generation of Switch can’t be imminent. If anything, historically it’s an indicator of the opposite.
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I get your point about Pokemon, but releasing stuff like Xenoblade, Splatoon, and Mario + Rabbids so soon before a new console seems like a terrible decision. Those could be used to sell the hardware. And yes it's cross-gen, but the casual market won't realize that. They'll think it's on a dead system.
 
Magic-Man said:
I get your point about Pokemon, but releasing stuff like Xenoblade, Splatoon, and Mario + Rabbids so soon before a new console seems like a terrible decision. Those could be used to sell the hardware. And yes it's cross-gen, but the casual market won't realize that. They'll think it's on a dead system.
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This is like saying the casual market wouldn't realize they can keep buying games for their red box Switch after the OLED got revealed. If Nintendo keeps selling the current Switch models and markets games as playable on the Nintendo Switch family of systems, nothing will change except some people opting for their more expensive, more powerful model while everyone keeps buying the games for whichever model they have.
 
Magic-Man said:
I get your point about Pokemon, but releasing stuff like Xenoblade, Splatoon, and Mario + Rabbids so soon before a new console seems like a terrible decision. Those could be used to sell the hardware. And yes it's cross-gen, but the casual market won't realize that. They'll think it's on a dead system.
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I’m not even going to get into sales data since I think what your suggesting is the terrible decision. So, you want them to hold back at least at least a 1-2 years worth of software? What are you replacing those titles with?
 
Magic-Man said:
It's simply not how gaming companies operate. Both Microsoft and Sony held back titles for their new systems for a big launch.
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Again, Sony’s two “biggest” game launches of 2020, The Last of Us Part II and Ghost of Tsushima, happened in the summer before the new console came out. They didn’t hold back either title, despite widespread speculation that they would “pull a BotW” with TLOU2.

Magic-Man said:
I get your point about Pokemon, but releasing stuff like Xenoblade, Splatoon, and Mario + Rabbids so soon before a new console seems like a terrible decision. Those could be used to sell the hardware. And yes it's cross-gen, but the casual market won't realize that. They'll think it's on a dead system.
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Here’s the thing, though: the new hardware doesn’t need an exclusive Xenoblade or Mario & Rabbits to drive its sales at first. It’ll play games in higher fidelity which is clearly enough for a lot of the early adopter crowd. It’s about opportunity cost: yes, Splatoon 3 being exclusive to the release of a new system would drive some sales and interest in that system, but it also would be unlikely to have the best opening week sales of any game ever in Japan.

I don’t really understand your point about the casual audience thinking the Switch is a dead system. If anything, it makes sense to release more wide audience titles in the back half of a system’s life, not fewer, since the wider “casual” audience is more likely to be late adopters. (Releasing a wide audience title that requires new hardware too early can actually sink it; nintendogs + cats is a good example.) It’s clear a lot of the people buying Splatoon 3 bought a Switch for Animal Crossing in 2020 or otherwise did not own a Switch for the launch of Splatoon 2 in 2017, which is why the S3 launch is so much more massive.
 
Look over there said:
On that topic of DLSS 3, this is allegedly the public reason:
im94428ll3p91.png


So, per the post linked to by Dakhil, we know from the hack that the tensor cores are that of desktop Ampere. But can we confirm that the OFA is of the Ampere generation?
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It's definitely been a thing, but that thread definitely makes it sound like there's basically no chance the one in Drake is powerful enough unless it has that particular enhancement from Lovelace.
 
MusicProposition said:
I’d agree and say it’s unlikely, but posts like this are kinda funny when we‘re talking about Nintendo here. I remember so many posts saying „BOTW2 is 100% coming out this year“ since 2020.
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3D Zelda is totally different matter, you never sure with 3D Zelda, I remember when Zelda BotW for Wii U should be out in 2015.


DXB-KNIGHT said:
If it'll launch next year here's what I predict the timeline to be

1. First reveal December/January: Just hardware and new features.
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December is usually biggest sale month for Nintendo, announcing new hardware during that period (or in November-October) and people start thinking about new hardware instead buying current available in that period, wouldn't be good business decision.


SMALLVILLE BOY said:
Thats what insiders are saying, 2023 H1 with no specific month.
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Thats true, but Zelda TotK is also 2023 H1 game and we know that Zelda BotW was launch title for current Switch,
so there are very good chances that Zelda TotK will be launch title for Drake hardware.

Also hardly new hardware would be launched in January of February in any case, so that leaves us from March to June like possible release months.
 
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Z0m3le said:
I'll just make it simple. Nvidia was hacked, from that hack, we saw that Switch 2 will use T239 codenamed "Drake" (this is a Nvidia codename). This 8 core leak is from September 5th, just 2 weeks ago, and is real, this is the linux kernal, which also means that this is a chip in production right now, as os support for a CPU points to real hardware.

From the above, we can know that the specs are
1536 Cuda cores (Steam Deck has 512 cores for comparison) also 48 Tensor cores and 12 RT cores.
8 core A78C CPU (better IPC than Ryzen 2, but will have a lower clock than current gen consoles)
128bit memory bus, 88GB/s - 102GB/s for LPDDR5, which is the memory type based on Orin's relation to T239.
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VERY Late to this considering how many pages are still ahead of me...

It should be noted that Amperes cuda cores are more perfrormant than RDNA2 cores in the deck. Not by a lot but they are. If these specs turn out to be true, the GPU part of Drake will mop the floor with the deck with 1 hand tied behind it's back.
 
LiC said:
This is like saying the casual market wouldn't realize they can keep buying games for their red box Switch after the OLED got revealed. If Nintendo keeps selling the current Switch models and markets games as playable on the NIntendo Switch family of systems, nothing will change except some people opting for their more expensive, more powerful model while everyone keeps buying the games for whichever model they have.
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If it's a Switch 2 they're not gonna sell the other Switch consoles alongside it. That defeats the entire purpose. You want people to buy the new hardware, not the old hardware. It's different when it's just another model like a Lite or an OLED, those aren't aiming to replace their predecessors.

Tentacle-tropes said:
I’m not even going to get into sales data since I think what your suggesting is the terrible decision. So, you want them to hold back at least at least a 1-2 years worth of software? What are you replacing those titles with?
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Not all software. Just big tentpole releases. And not for years, just not six months before a new console launch.

Gay Bowser said:
Again, Sony’s two “biggest” game launches of 2020, The Last of Us Part II and Ghost of Tsushima, happened in the summer before the new console came out. They didn’t hold back either title, despite widespread speculation that they would “pull a BotW” with TLOU2.



Here’s the thing, though: the new hardware doesn’t need an exclusive Xenoblade or Mario & Rabbits to drive its sales at first. It’ll play games in higher fidelity which is clearly enough for a lot of the early adopter crowd. It’s about opportunity cost: yes, Splatoon 3 being exclusive to the release of a new system would drive some sales and interest in that system, but it also would be unlikely to have the best opening week sales of any game ever in Japan.

I don’t really understand your point about the casual audience thinking the Switch is a dead system. If anything, it makes sense to release more wide audience titles in the back half of a system’s life, not fewer, since the wider “casual” audience is more likely to be late adopters. (Releasing a wide audience title that requires new hardware too early can actually sink it; nintendogs + cats is a good example.) It’s clear a lot of the people buying Splatoon 3 bought a Switch for Animal Crossing in 2020 or otherwise did not own a Switch for the launch of Splatoon 2 in 2017, which is why the S3 launch is so much more massive.
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You got me with Sony. I forgot about Ghost of Tsushima. And you got me with the early adopter part. But I don't know. It just doesn't make any sense to me. Releasing them now means that there won't be a new Splatoon, Xenoblade, Mario + Rabbids, etc for a while after the new system launches. The new games will already be old news.
 
Magic-Man said:
If it's a Switch 2 they're not gonna sell the other Switch consoles alongside it. That defeats the entire purpose. You want people to buy the new hardware, not the old hardware. It's different when it's just another model like a Lite or an OLED, those aren't aiming to replace their predecessors.
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Of course they will. The consoles will be selling largely to different people. There's a reason Nintendo has released a revision for a system after its successor released on at least 4 different occasions (from memory: the top loader NES, Game Boy Micro, Wii mini, and New 2DS XL).
 
Magic-Man said:
If it's a Switch 2 they're not gonna sell the other Switch consoles alongside it. That defeats the entire purpose. You want people to buy the new hardware, not the old hardware. It's different when it's just another model like a Lite or an OLED, those aren't aiming to replace their predecessors.


Not all software. Just big tentpole releases. And not for years, just not six months before a new console launch.


You got me with Sony. I forgot about Ghost of Tsushima. And you got me with the early adopter part. But I don't know. It just doesn't make any sense to me. Releasing them now means that there won't be a new Splatoon, Xenoblade, Mario + Rabbids, etc for a while after the new system launches. The new games will already be old news.
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And I didn’t mention all. If you are taking away the pole releases then you would have to replace them with some or nothing. Considering when some of the major tentpole games you are talking about announcements happened; and then the potential Drake release. It would be about a year plus for some of these titles.
And, yes Nintendo will sell Switches alongside Switch 2 unless Nintendo wants to buy back stock from every single retailer in the world or just stop shipping them after 2022. They didn’t even do that to the 3DS.
That’s what other games releasing around the launch of the system will do like a potential Prime 4 or 3D Mario or even Zelda. Maybe some new ip that really catches on. Besides new hardware can be attractive to people who waited or didn’t play those games on the original hardware
 
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