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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

WHEN

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Magic-Man said:
2023:
  • New Super Mario Bros Switch
  • Everybody's 1-2 Switch
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2
  • Fire Emblem NEXT
  • Tomodachi Life
  • Animal Crossing Bell Festival
  • Donkey Kong: Jungle Madness
  • Metroid Prime 2 Remastered
  • Pokemon Ultra Scarlet and Ultra Violet
2024:
  • Nintendo Switch 2
  • Super Mario Expedition (open world 3D Mario)
  • Fire Emblem Genealogy of the Holy War Remake
  • Luigi's Mansion 4
  • Super Mario Sluggers
  • The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages and Seasons
  • Ring Fit Adventure 2
  • Unknown new IP that takes advantage of hardware (there's always one)
  • Metroid Prime 3 Remastered
  • Mario Kart 8 Ultimate
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I would be happy with this.
 
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Raccoon said:
selling DLC:

reduces development demands by building on an established base

lengthens the tail of sales by making a game supported and live for longer

provides higher profit with a lower cost of entry

DLC is a slam dunk with recent precedent. Making another $60 version regresses from recent progress and returns to a model that is untested in the modern market
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Can also sell bundled copies the next holiday and use it as a sort of rerelease anyway. They did that with sword and shield. Not sure how well the bundle sold or if they even tracked the sku differently.
 
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Magic-Man said:
Feels too early for MP4 IMO. Especially if they're still planning on releasing MP2/MP3 before it releases.
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I don’t think we are necessarily getting MP2 and MP3 before Prime 4 unless they are more straightforward ports bundled together. It’s been a good while since the reboot started and we had the social media art update earlier this year. Pretty confident we’ll see it in the next Direct and it will be set up to be the holiday 2023 game barring delays.
 
Barely Able said:
Can also sell bundled copies the next holiday and use it as a sort of rerelease anyway. They did that with sword and shield. Not sure how well the bundle sold or if they even United the sku differently.
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DLC is (partially) why swsh sold so well, not a reason to go back to the dark ages
 
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xghost777 said:
I don’t think we are necessarily getting MP2 and MP3 before Prime 4 unless they are more straightforward ports bundled together. It’s been a good while since the reboot started and we had the social media art update earlier this year. Pretty confident we’ll see it in the next Direct and it will be set up to be the holiday 2023 game barring delays.
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I don't think concept art means anything. They were still hiring not too long ago.
 
I don't disagree with anyone that DLC is the way forward (and probably the preferred one by the developer and the consumer). I just disagree with the idea that Nintendo and Game Freak could never get away with selling a third version ever again. If they ever decided to do it again, I believe they will in fact get away with it. A third version of a Pokemon game would still be very successful today.

I'm over 30 so in anime years, I'm a grizzled veteran on his death bed and let me tell you kiddos, the discussion around Pokemon has been the same for years. I remember listening to podcasts in 2007 if the rate at which Pokemon games come out could still be "tenable" and 15 years later, not much has changed. Pokemon games whether new ones, remakes, or third versions are all pretty successful. Same discussion has been happening for sports titles as well. I remember debates about yearly Madden and Fifa games back in high school. The were basically selling the same game every year and today, they are still selling the same game every year (now with DLC and microtransactions added on).
 
Magic-Man said:
I don't think concept art means anything. They were still hiring not too long ago.
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Companies are hiring all the time. I don't think MP4 will be in the next Direct, and it might slip out of 2023, but it shouldn't be coming much later than that, barring any catastrophes. The game was rebooted almost three years ago at this point. No way they do full separate remasters for all the Prime games either. If we even get 2 and 3 they will probably be digital ports
 
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KilgoreWolfe said:
I'm now convinced that the next Direct will be on 9/1.

Source: I have a root canal scheduled for 9am PST that day.
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The jury duty principle has been tossed out, so might as well go to the dental work hypothesis for direct scheduling. The worse the procedure, the more likely the direct.
 
Imo, no point in talking about BOTW2 possibly being delayed (again) until after this Direct. It was delayed 5 months ago, and obviously Nintendo would wait at the very least a few months before talking about the game again since the delay. I’ve felt they haven’t shown anything this summer because of the delay, not because they need another delay.
 
Magic-Man said:
Last I recall they were hiring for pretty big positions. I just don't think it's happening soon. Not with COVID hitting Nintendo development like it has.
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Senior level staff is always the highest in demand across the industry and likely to burn out. I wouldn’t read into that too much.

I’m not set on it definitely being 2023’s game btw, but I do think it is at least the plan they are working towards given the scattered bits of info we have. The actual hardest thing predicting this from the outside is we have no word for what kind of game it is. Like it could be like the old ones, it could be multiple planets again but bigger, or it could be open world somehow. Will they take a stab at multiplayer again given the controls are possibly modernized? The latter I think is unlikely, but yeah we basically have nothing to work with.

The cool thing, I really think we have an excellent shot at an update when Prime R gets revealed which is seemingly soon.
 
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Magic-Man said:
Last I recall they were hiring for pretty big positions. I just don't think it's happening soon. Not with COVID hitting Nintendo development like it has.
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they re hiring for 20 positions lol. Just this year they hired 20 people. As for big positions, at least its been i think a year since they asked for a director position. The highest ones are now for producers. Art department producer. Sr Producer.

For me MP4 is a 2024 game, like... may 2024. While it absolutely could come in november/december of 2023 i dont really think it will. If it does we will know it by this year.
 
Magic-Man said:
I just don't know what could be next years holiday game tbh. I really don't think it's 3D Mario, 2D Mario makes more sense around the movie, and BOTW2 is coming in Spring. All the other options (Animal Crossing mainline, Mario Kart 10, Smash, brand new Pokemon game, etc) are pretty much impossible. So what could it be? Pokemon Third Version makes the most sense.
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Pokémon DLC/3rd version will be a big seller but they won’t do that as the only holiday game. 2020 was when we got Sw/Sh DLC and while that year was unique obviously we still got AoC as well.

2021 we got BDSP, Mario Party Superstars, and SMTV.

So there’ll be more than just Pokémon, just hard to say exactly what. It’ll probably be more clear after this Direct, at least somewhat.
 
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Dizzle said:
By doing what? Taking out all the things that make Phantom Hourglass unique?

I think Wind Waker is the better game, but I'm also a notorious Phantom Hourglass defender (and proud of it).
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Yeah, making Phantom Hourglass less like Phantom Hourglass would be a great improvement, I think.
 
Personally I want the next Direct to be a good mix between finally confirming leaked or rumoured projects (Fire Emblem, Metroid Prime HD, EPD8/9/10 actually making games) and slightly more out there possibilities (new Monolith Soft IP, Astral Chain 2, random 80s IP revival, Wario Land, new Star Fox out of nowhere). I'm also very curious to see Grezzo's new game and I hope it's something that turns out well.

Seems like Metroid Prime and Fire Emblem would pretty much be a lock, given Prime is said to be November and Fire Emblem's mainline releases have been more or less a first half of the calendar year game in the last decade. Plus, it was said to be more or less done, so while Nintendo absolutely could hang onto it if they wanted, there's nothing stopping them from choosing the preferred launch period for the series (it might even be this fiscal year). Those would be the two near-term announcements that are likeliest to feature.

As @Marce-chan pointed out, Nintendo do use the Direct (and have done during the Switch era) to show games that are further out, so there's a chance we see something that's planned for late 2023. Maybe that's where one of the MIA EPD groups pop up.
 
Magic-Man said:
Before anyone asks me why I'm so sure that 3D Mario isn't coming next year, it's because I don't think the Switch 2 is coming next year so 2024 makes the most sense. 3D Mario would be the last possible blockbuster title they could launch the system with. Pokemon, Zelda, Splatoon, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, and (probably) Smash won't be ready in time. Luigi's Mansion isn't a title that can sell the system. I doubt Nintendo relies on 2D Mario to start a new generation ever again. Every other game is a non-starter. 3D Mario makes the most sense.
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They have not hired people in 2019 for a 2024 game.
 
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Third versions of Pokémon games are never happening again. Ever. The entire model is a relic from a time before DLC was possible.
 
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August 30th - an actual Splatoon 3 previews
August 31st - Nintendo Direct announcement
September 1st - Nintendo Direct in NA, September 2nd - Nintendo Direct in EU and JP
September 6th - Splatoon 3 reviews
September 9th - Splatoon 3 has arrived

Seems good to me.
 
LukasManak22 said:
August 30th - an actual Splatoon 3 previews
August 31st - Nintendo Direct announcement
September 1st - Nintendo Direct in NA, September 2nd - Nintendo Direct in EU and JP
September 6th - Splatoon 3 reviews
September 9th - Splatoon 3 has arrived

Seems good to me.
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You know what, Lukas. You have convinced me. I'm a believer now. Next week IS the week! Let's go!
 
MisterSpo said:
Personally I want the next Direct to be a good mix between finally confirming leaked or rumoured projects (Fire Emblem, Metroid Prime HD, EPD8/9/10 actually making games) and slightly more out there possibilities (new Monolith Soft IP, Astral Chain 2, random 80s IP revival, Wario Land, new Star Fox out of nowhere). I'm also very curious to see Grezzo's new game and I hope it's something that turns out well.

Seems like Metroid Prime and Fire Emblem would pretty much be a lock, given Prime is said to be November and Fire Emblem's mainline releases have been more or less a first half of the calendar year game in the last decade. Plus, it was said to be more or less done, so while Nintendo absolutely could hang onto it if they wanted, there's nothing stopping them from choosing the preferred launch period for the series (it might even be this fiscal year). Those would be the two near-term announcements that are likeliest to feature.

As @Marce-chan pointed out, Nintendo do use the Direct (and have done during the Switch era) to show games that are further out, so there's a chance we see something that's planned for late 2023. Maybe that's where one of the MIA EPD groups pop up.
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The fact that there's a lot of stuff that can potentially show up is always exciting. The only thing that gives me some pause is that I cannot even begin to predict Nintendo's hardware plans and how they could affect their software release strategy. If a more powerful device is close I can see them hold back stuff a little longer.

My personal wishlist looks similar to yours, though I am currently 100% in "give me a new Wave Race" mode.
 
Samus95 said:
I really think Prime 2 and 3 are many times in the future, even if is 2024 Prime 4 i dont think N wants annual Metroid

Also if Prime 4 is succesful they need something between Prime 4 and 5
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Dread must have broken 3 million by now and was already the series best-seller a quarter ago, so I assume Metroid 6 (whether it's a direct continuation of 1-5 or some sort of reboot) has to happen at some point.
 
LukasManak22 said:
August 30th - an actual Splatoon 3 previews
August 31st - Nintendo Direct announcement
September 1st - Nintendo Direct in NA, September 2nd - Nintendo Direct in EU and JP
September 6th - Splatoon 3 reviews
September 9th - Splatoon 3 has arrived

Seems good to me.
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Only confused on your first one. We had final previews of Splatoon 3 yesterday.
 
Dardan Sandiego said:
The fact that there's a lot of stuff that can potentially show up is always exciting. The only thing that gives me some pause is that I cannot even begin to predict Nintendo's hardware plans and how they could affect their software release strategy. If a more powerful device is close I can see them hold back stuff a little longer.

My personal wishlist looks similar to yours, though I am currently 100% in "give me a new Wave Race" mode.
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EPD 9 x Wave Race has been my wish for a few years now. Personally I'd guess Nintendo are looking at late 2023 for their next hardware, but I'm also guessing that at least one major EPD title is going to be ready around then anyway - 2D Mario and 3D Mario being the front runners. I'm not convinced Zelda needs to be held back for hardware, though I also wouldn't rule out a delay if Nintendo simply thinks it would benefit from more time in the oven, and there's also the question of what Nintendo launch after the hardware to keep sales momentum going.

I suppose the obvious counterpoint to that is that we're likely to see cross-generational software and it's very much a given that Nintendo's software enjoys long-term sales momentum even at full price, so as long as they get a range of evergreen titles onto the market either side of the hardware, that'll be fine. It's why I think across 2023 and early 2024, we'll get major titles like Zelda, 2D Mario, and 3D Mario.
 
MisterSpo said:
EPD 9 x Wave Race has been my wish for a few years now. Personally I'd guess Nintendo are looking at late 2023 for their next hardware, but I'm also guessing that at least one major EPD title is going to be ready around then anyway - 2D Mario and 3D Mario being the front runners. I'm not convinced Zelda needs to be held back for hardware, though I also wouldn't rule out a delay if Nintendo simply thinks it would benefit from more time in the oven, and there's also the question of what Nintendo launch after the hardware to keep sales momentum going.

I suppose the obvious counterpoint to that is that we're likely to see cross-generational software and it's very much a given that Nintendo's software enjoys long-term sales momentum even at full price, so as long as they get a range of evergreen titles onto the market either side of the hardware, that'll be fine. It's why I think across 2023 and early 2024, we'll get major titles like Zelda, 2D Mario, and 3D Mario.
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My thinking is that the release timing of the new hardware will probably shuffle some stuff around depending on the state of their software. As you say, Zelda doesn't have to be held back but if it's only a few months difference they might as well and reap the benefits. And shifting Zelda from its internally projected release date would obviously also affect other stuff. But we're speculating about a lot of factors here.
 
LukasManak22 said:
Are we sure it was the final? Because they just went to Nintendo HQ or whatever that was to play the game for like little over an hour. Am sure the final previews are still coming when they have the game in their hands.
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IGN labeled their’s as final preview which is only odd in that I don’t remember them ever playing it before lol. Most Nintendo games seemingly only get one preview these days so I imagine that was it. We still have Treehouse today either way.
 
Chaotic Neutral said:
You know what I want in this Direct and am absolutely not getting?

A new Famicom Detective Club entry.
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Another thing that I want and am absolutely never getting?

It's time

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Biggest mystery to me is this site's obsession with the 1-2 Switch sequel despite all signs pointing to it being a giant turd. There's much better games coming out that deserve your attention instead.
 
bixente said:
Biggest mystery to me is this site's obsession with the 1-2 Switch sequel despite all signs pointing to it being a giant turd. There's much better games coming out that deserve your attention instead.
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I'm above caring about tenuous concepts like "quality".
 
Skipper93653 said:
Well, IGN said it was the final preview.
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xghost777 said:
IGN labeled their’s as final preview which is only odd in that I don’t remember them ever playing it before lol. Most Nintendo games seemingly only get one preview these days so I imagine that was it. We still have Treehouse today either way.
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Oh, thanks for the info! I believe that Xeno3 had 2 previews but it really looks like that what we've got yesterday was the final.
 
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Barely Able said:
“But Daddy Phil said he doesn’t want exclusives so it will be all good for you PS and Ninty fanboys!” - Xbox Twitter

(I don’t think this is happening but the insane doomposting and console warring would be a sight to behold).
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Xbox does indeed want to do away with exclusivity, that's why they're putting everything on PC
 
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