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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

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What would a speculation thread be without a healthy amount of equal parts delusion, blind faith and surrender to Nintendo's wicked ways
 
Aurc said:
genuine
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EoXbiOIXUAETWno.png
 
Shout-out to this time last week when this community was going full-on panic mode over the Direct being a Mini Partner Showcase.

Already feels like a distant memory.
 
I think I have figured out why Silksong was not present in last month's presentation.

That was a Partner Showcase, and Team Cherry no longer fits the description because, secretly, Nintendo has purchased them. Therefore, both that transaction and the game's date will be coming in the next first-party Direct.

Believe!
 
BradenAndEggs said:
Is something wrong with me? The possibility of new hardware makes me super nervous and not excited. Nintendo has such good thing going with the Switch and it almost has everything I want, but I'm afraid there will be a lack of backward compatibility, there will be Switch "'''pro'''' exclusive games, etc.

I feel like we JUST got the OLED. With the hassle of any new hardware launch post-2020, I just have a lot of anxiety about what "new hardware" could mean for Nintendo.

I'm in a one-person bubble that doesn't care about the graphical performance of AAA games at all as long as they 'work,' and has never docked my Switch, so I may just be the extreme minority...
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Don't worry, this forum is often a bubble fueled with confirmation bias regarding that subject. We know that Nintendo is working on a more powerful machine since the Nvidia hack, but beyond that, there are no tangible information regarding the release date of the said machine. Everyone has their guess; mine is 2024, and I see everything as a confirmation of that guess. Most of the hardware topic guesses 2022, and also sees everything as a confirmation.

So far, nobody knows anything, so you can enjoy your switch the same as before with the assurance that, whichever scenario happens, it will continue to receive most major games for several years.
 
What if the new hardware is just a Splatoon themed OLED? If I remember correctly this account was the one who correctly predicted the Switch dropping in price in some regions in Europe. So he probably has a source who works in retail.

 
parasite2 said:
What if the new hardware is just a Splatoon themed OLED? If I remember correctly this account was the one who correctly predicted the Switch dropping in price in some regions in Europe. So he probably has a source who works in retail.

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This was a hint of more splatoon 3 merch that dropped on Amazon a couple weeks ago
 
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Bosintang said:
Don't worry, this forum is often a bubble fueled with confirmation bias regarding that subject. We know that Nintendo is working on a more powerful machine since the Nvidia hack, but beyond that, there are no tangible information regarding the release date of the said machine. Everyone has their guess; mine is 2024, and I see everything as a confirmation of that guess. Most of the hardware topic guesses 2022, and also sees everything as a confirmation.
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I mean, you're wrong. Nate specifically heard it was launching late 2022-early 2023 (in 2020) and several of the details he gave were corroborated by the Nvidia hack. Including details that were not obvious to guess like ray tracing hardware.

Plus, plenty of other rumors and hints talking about it happening soon, though I'm sure you'll consider that not to be tangible information. The level of raw materials is another piece which can point to new hardware happening imminently too.


That's not to say it has to be happening soon, but the idea that this year/early next year is just a complete guess which is as good as yours of 2024 is extraordinarily baseless.
 
So, I know Nintendo can announce what they want when they want, but I want to ask for the sake of discussion:

If Metroid Prime Remaster releases November 4th (just a guess), is a mid-September direct too late to announce it? The same question applies to Bayonetta 3, especially if it's an October game. If so, they could conceivably drop a trailer soon like they did for Paper Mario, Pikmin 3, or Age of Calamity.

The weird thing is that by this time of year, we normally know about all the fall release dates + some things for the following year. Right now we have some of that, but not the whole picture. Maybe they do a short video or Twitter drops for the remaining 2022 games, and the usual September event for 3rd parties and H1 2023 Nintendo games?
 
Skittzo said:
Nah we haven't. Maybe if you're not paying attention it feels that way, and that's fine.
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I have been playing plenty of attention and I remember previous fiascos. The "this time is different" doesn't change the fact that some people have been, with or without reason, expecting it since 2018.

I've had enough patronizing about it in 2021, now I don't even care about it tbh.
 
I get the impression that people got very used to saying "no, there's no Switch Pro any time soon" back in like 2018 because the console had only been out for like a year and haven't revised that reflexive response even though the Switch is now five years old
 
Skittzo said:
Nah we haven't. Maybe if you're not paying attention it feels that way, and that's fine.
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To people who haven’t been paying very close attention to each and every Switch revision rumor (which I presume is most folks), it feels like the “Switch Pro” or equivalent has been either speculated about or heavily rumored every year since 2018. I get that these are several different rumors that have gotten mixed up (Switch 2019 improvements, OLED model, etc.), but you have to understand why this gets tiring for people who are less in the loop.
 
Irene said:
Like, something like a Twitter drop has its neat benefits. It's kind of fun when something like a Xenoblade Direct or an Origami King announcement just ... happens. It's a pleasant surprise, and each announcement gets its time in the sun.
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Glad to see I'm not the only one that feels alright with Twitter drops—I know a lot of people who disagree and hate unexpected announcements that aren't contained in a Direct. Still, I feel like most of the time (unless it got leaked beforehand) it's just a little more surprising when I get caught off-guard in the morning. Or maybe I'm conflating people's hatred of unexpected Twitter drops with shadowdrops; hell, some probably hate both.
 
Jbone916 said:
To people who haven’t been paying very close attention to each and every Switch revision rumor (which I presume is most folks), it feels like the “Switch Pro” or equivalent has been either speculated about or heavily rumored every year since 2018. I get that these are several different rumors that have gotten mixed up (Switch 2019 improvements, OLED model, etc.), but you have to understand why this gets tiring for people who are less in the loop.
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That’s why he’s telling you it’s not the same. It’s not switch pro from 2018.
 
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Skittzo said:
I mean, you're wrong. Nate specifically heard it was launching late 2022-early 2023 (in 2020) and several of the details he gave were corroborated by the Nvidia hack. Including details that were not obvious to guess like ray tracing hardware.

Plus, plenty of other rumors and hints talking about it happening soon, though I'm sure you'll consider that not to be tangible information. The level of raw materials is another piece which can point to new hardware happening imminently too.


That's not to say it has to be happening soon, but the idea that this year/early next year is just a complete guess which is as good as yours of 2024 is extraordinarily baseless.
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Nate is not Nintendo and Nate is not information; I doubt he wants to be taken as such.
I personally trust him on several things such as knowing more or less that a direct is coming, and I do not trust him when it comes to several other things, which include the release date of a new hardware.

Regarding the hardware details, the first person to mention DLSS and ray tracing wasn't Nate, but the French guy, which you conveniently forget.

I know you get very antsy about that subject so I'll stop here with you; but I will certainly not stop saying to other forum enjoyers what I believe about the next Switch release date: it's currently a combination of guesswork and make believe. Which include my guesses of course.
 
Glio said:
I have been playing plenty of attention and I remember previous fiascos. The "this time is different" doesn't change the fact that some people have been, with or without reason, expecting it since 2018.

I've had enough patronizing about it in 2021, now I don't even care about it tbh.
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The problem with what you're saying, is that you're classifying this thing as "it" when in reality the speculation about some nebulous "Switch pro" (a term I hate using) has referred to at least two separate devices in the works over the past 4 years. In 2018 it referred to the Mariko model which people speculated would be more powerful, and it wasn't. But the leaks about it were 100% accurate. The speculation was not. Since 2020 it has referred to this Drake model with an expected launch date of late 2022-early 2023, with the major hiccup of Mochizuki having a nuclearly bad read on his info.

So my issue is when people say "we've been expecting this since 2018" without understanding or acknowledging the actual context behind all of this speculation and expectation. If you don't care and don't want to pay attention that's perfectly fine, but patronizing those of us who do choose to follow this by saying "we've been hearing the same thing since 2018" is a bit irksome.

Right now, July 2022, is the date we have been expecting since December 2020 that they would perhaps drop an announcement. Nobody reasonably expected it any sooner.

Bosintang said:
Nate is not Nintendo and Nate is not information; I doubt he wants to be taken as such.
I personally trust him on several things such as knowing more or less that a direct is coming, and I do not trust him when it comes to several other things, which include the release date of a new hardware.

Regarding the hardware details, the first person to mention DLSS and ray tracing wasn't Nate, but the French guy, which you conveniently forget.

I know you get very antsy about that subject so I'll stop here with you; but I will certainly not stop saying to other forum enjoyers what I believe about the next Switch release date: it's currently a combination of guesswork and make believe. Which include my guesses of course.
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Thugstas did not mention ray tracing, only DLSS. Nate specifically has been the first and only source besides the Nvidia hack to mention ray tracing.
 
Skittzo said:
Thugstas did not mention ray tracing, only DLSS. Nate specifically has been the first and only source besides the Nvidia hack to mention ray tracing.
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He did. "Some form of ray tracing" was the exact formulation, if I recall. And no, I'm not going to the other forum to verify, I don't even have an account anymore. But maybe @Thugstas will confirm that he was indeed the first one to mention ray tracing.
 
Skittzo said:
The problem with what you're saying, is that you're classifying this thing as "it" when in reality the speculation about some nebulous "Switch pro" (a term I hate using) has referred to at least two separate devices in the works over the past 4 years. In 2018 it referred to the Mariko model which people speculated would be more powerful, and it wasn't. But the leaks about it were 100% accurate. The speculation was not. Since 2020 it has referred to this Drake model with an expected launch date of late 2022-early 2023, with the major hiccup of Mochizuki having a nuclearly bad read on his info.

So my issue is when people say "we've been expecting this since 2018" without understanding or acknowledging the actual context behind all of this speculation and expectation. If you don't care and don't want to pay attention that's perfectly fine, but patronizing those of us who do choose to follow this by saying "we've been hearing the same thing since 2018" is a bit irksome.

Right now, July 2022, is the date we have been expecting since December 2020 that they would perhaps drop an announcement. Nobody reasonably expected it any sooner.


Thugstas did not mention ray tracing, only DLSS. Nate specifically has been the first and only source besides the Nvidia hack to mention ray tracing.
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You can't tell me "nobody expected this before 2022" after what happened with Switch OLED and E3 2021. A lot of people expected that. Jason Schreier was totally surprised by Switch OLED. They had bad information but they expected it.
 
Glio said:
You can't tell me "nobody expected this before 2022" after what happened with Switch OLED and E3 2021. A lot of people expected that. Jason Schreier was totally surprised by Switch OLED. They had bad information but they expected it.
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I acknowledged Mochizuki going nuclear in my post. For a span of like 3-4 months he had convinced many people it was happening in 2021. Outside of that span yes, nobody was expecting this until 2022.
 
if Nintendo didn't make a more powerful device in the last four years I don't see any reason to believe they'll make one at any point in the future. patterns, people
 
Only pattern you can trust these days is a Splatoon tweet at 11:00 CEST on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Splatoon fans always winning baby, great to see it.
 
Skittzo said:
I acknowledged Mochizuki going nuclear in my post. For a span of like 3-4 months he had convinced many people it was happening in 2021. Outside of that span yes, nobody was expecting this until 2022.
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Well, except for a third of 2021 nobody expected Switch Pro in 2021, ok, we can leave it there.
 
For me the Xenoblade and partner Direct rules out another event this month, because those would have made up the majority of content of the regular Direct. I'm on team Pro in March/April 2023, but they're not going to announce it this far out. We still have Bayonetta, Advance Wars and Metroid Remaster as potential releases, but that's slim pickings for a Direct, especially because the first two have already been announced before. Expect Twitter drops.
That leaves a Splatoon 3 Direct, which still needs a big blowout. If we look at XC3 timing, it arrives roughly five weeks before release, so that might be end of July, but I'm going with early August.
 
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Jbone916 said:
To people who haven’t been paying very close attention to each and every Switch revision rumor (which I presume is most folks), it feels like the “Switch Pro” or equivalent has been either speculated about or heavily rumored every year since 2018. I get that these are several different rumors that have gotten mixed up (Switch 2019 improvements, OLED model, etc.), but you have to understand why this gets tiring for people who are less in the loop.
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I certainly get that, yeah. But begrudging those of us in the loop is also tiring.
 
The Nvidia Drake hack pushes the idea of upgraded hardware beyond speculation and rumors, there is not much else "NVN2" can be. It is no longer guessing games from production lines, OS datamines, folks misinterpreting devkit hardware, wishful thinking from nice looking gameplay videos, or insider information. It does suck that we had to find out from an illegal hack.

Even if you trust no one, this has to be taken into consideration. And based on what other people scouring the leaked code, it is a project that has made significant progress, doubtful it will be scrapped. The "mythical Switch Pro" this is not. It's just a question of when, and not if. I'll happily keep waiting with the knowledge that Drake exists and will be in our hands sooner rather than later, I'm still enjoying my current Switch.

Skittzo said:
I acknowledged Mochizuki going nuclear in my post. For a span of like 3-4 months he had convinced many people it was happening in 2021. Outside of that span yes, nobody was expecting this until 2022.
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Yeah, I distinctly recall Nate being thrown off by Bloomberg's assertions of a 2021 device, he has been consistent with 2022 since before Mochi, like with these posts. I even remember a podcast episode (might've been with DF) that they entertained the possibility of two devices, a screen refresh and an upgraded model. Man, that whole period of speculation was confusing.
 
Jbone916 said:
To people who haven’t been paying very close attention to each and every Switch revision rumor (which I presume is most folks), it feels like the “Switch Pro” or equivalent has been either speculated about or heavily rumored every year since 2018. I get that these are several different rumors that have gotten mixed up (Switch 2019 improvements, OLED model, etc.), but you have to understand why this gets tiring for people who are less in the loop.
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It's totally fair to have this perspective, but in that case maybe just don't engage. I don't really see the purpose in users loudly declaring they are tired of this conversation
 
If we really want to follow patterns: Switch 2017, Lite 2019, OLED 2021... Then obviously "Pro" 2023.
There is a new Switch every 2 years, you're welcome.
 
Next week is the maximum limit we can go for a Nintendo focused Direct, because September is almost here!
If the Direct happens too late, that could bring the idea of not having Direct in September.
 
Cerlinho said:
Next week is the maximum limit we can go for a Nintendo focused Direct, because September is almost here!
If the Direct happens too late, that could bring the idea of not having Direct in September.
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I don’t think so. A Direct in July would be for 2022 stuff. A September Direct would be first half of 2023 content.
 
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