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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Erista is T210, mariko is t214. The next Nintendo soc was always T239.

I’m Not buying this theory at all.
There’s a mention of Dane in the API, but Drake is more prevalent.

It’s literally not impossible for that to happen. There’s something amiss between T234 and T239.

If the two use the same hardware, and thus have the same draw calls from the API, then there wouldn’t be much of an issue. It would be a shrink. Nothing major.

No biggie.

That said, Drake was referred to since like 2020 so… I’m just spitballing an idea here since someone brought up the venerable Dane to Drake scenario.
 
NGL the thought of Famiboards making friends with this other forum feels very wholesome
I really, really like that too! They seem really cool over there. The one thread where a lot of this came from is great because they all started talking about the upcoming "split Directs" news in almost exactly the same way the thread on here did, haha! A lot of highs and lows from all around! :ROFLMAO:

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There’s a mention of Dane in the API, but Drake is more prevalent.

It’s literally not impossible for that to happen. There’s something amiss between T234 and T239.

If the two use the same hardware, and thus have the same draw calls from the API, then there wouldn’t be much of an issue. It would be a shrink. Nothing major.

No biggie.

That said, Drake was referred to since like 2020 so… I’m just spitballing an idea here since someone brought up the venerable Dane to Drake scenario.
I thought the theory was that Dane was 8nm and more in line with what we expected for an 8nm handheld. No more than 8sm for example.

In that case, Drake would have been a lot more than a die shrink.

And we never heard anything about a number, other than 239.

Edit: I also never said impossible, I just meant likely based on the available evidence.
 
It was so weird that Nintendo released hardware called “Nintendo Switch - OLED Model”

It’s such a weird, un-Nintendo thing to use such a technical term like OLED in a product name. Would be like if the Nintendo DSi was called “Nintendo DS - Digital Image Sensor Model” or whatever. Like they could have called it something more marketing/catchy, but they just named it after a hardware component.
 
It was so weird that Nintendo released hardware called “Nintendo Switch - OLED Model”

It’s such a weird, un-Nintendo thing to use such a technical term like OLED in a product name. Would be like if the Nintendo DSi was called “Nintendo DS - Digital Image Sensor Model” or whatever. Like they could have called it something more marketing/catchy, but they just named it after a hardware component.
Nintendo Switch DLSS Model
 
It was so weird that Nintendo released hardware called “Nintendo Switch - OLED Model”

It’s such a weird, un-Nintendo thing to use such a technical term like OLED in a product name. Would be like if the Nintendo DSi was called “Nintendo DS - Digital Image Sensor Model” or whatever. Like they could have called it something more marketing/catchy, but they just named it after a hardware component.
OLED had already been used quite a bit by TV manufactures for marketing purposes so while weird for Nintendo it would have made sense if it was any other company
 
Apple seems to puts the Wi-Fi antennae by the cooling vent on recent MacBooks, which is admittedly very clever engineering on Apple's part.

I should also mention that metals, including aluminium, can also be good heat conductors as well. I remember the Nintendo Switch equipped with the 20 nm** Tegra X1 that I have can feel very warm (almost hot) after playing in TV mode for around 30 minutes. I don't know if that's still the case with the Nintendo Switch equipped with the 16 nm** Tegra X1+ or the OLED model since I don't own those.

** → marketing nomenclature by foundry companies
The aluminium case of a MacBook gets dented and scratched VERY easily.
 
At this point, especially considering @Blue Monty ’s point a second ago about TV manufacturers using that term for marketing purposes a lot, I could absolutely see Nintendo Switch - 4K Model being what they go with haha
I really, really doubt this. I think that ultimately there will be multiple models with this silicon, so they need to set it apart in an extensible way, like the New 3DS family.
 
At this point, especially considering @Blue Monty ’s point a second ago about TV manufacturers using that term for marketing purposes a lot, I could absolutely see Nintendo Switch - 4K Model being what they go with haha
They could go with it, but I'll accept it with gritted teeth. Just think it undersells the capabilities of the system, if we're talking about Drake here.

With OLED model there's nothing to undersell, an OLED screen is the main draw. Meanwhile Drake is this ~PS4 level handheld with DLSS that could get third-party exclusives and give performance boosts to Switch games in both docked and handheld play. Other companies do make a distinction between more powerful models and models that enable 4K (e.g. Fire TV 4K vs Fire TV 4K Max, Roku 4K vs Roku 4K+).

They may very well go with the Nintendo Switch - X model naming scheme. Could be NS - Plus | Max | Super Model. Nintendo Switch is the brand name at this point, like the Game Boy Advance continuing the brand but being a more powerful successor.
 
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I thought the theory was that Dane was 8nm and more in line with what we expected for an 8nm handheld. No more than 8sm for example.

In that case, Drake would have been a lot more than a die shrink.

And we never heard anything about a number, other than 239.

Edit: I also never said impossible, I just meant likely based on the available evidence.
There would be versions that happen in between, though it’s a crapshoot theory with nVidia here but humor me: GA102, 103, 104, 106 and 107 are descending orders in their internal ordering a from highest GPU to lowest end of that family.

It’s not impossible that thee existed something in between but it evolved so much to just be T239

But then here’s the kicker, with Tegra SOCs, it’s like completely random.

So it’s not 100% but it’s not impossible per se.
 
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I have the opposite experience, I've had them for years and found them very scratch resistant compared to all the laptops I've been given for work.
Interesting, I haven't had a non-Apple laptop for 8 years or so, so I can't really compare to other brands, but both my MacBooks have been dented. I'm clumsy though.

Back on topic - loving this thread at the moment! :D
 
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I found a dent on my MacBook 3 days after getting it and I never found out what it was because it wasn’t there before and it was just on a desk.


Needless to say, I was very confused.
 
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But yesterday it was said that new hardware (a better performing Switch revision) was possible.
I suppose that after announcing that it is a Partner Showcase (also mini) the possibilities of new hardware have totally disappeared, right?
 
But yesterday it was said that new hardware (a better performing Switch revision) was possible.
I suppose that after announcing that it is a Partner Showcase (also mini) the possibilities of new hardware have totally disappeared, right?

I think it depends, as like everything, it can be read both ways. If you want to see it the other way, they might be saving their first party announcements for the new device showcase.
 
But yesterday it was said that new hardware (a better performing Switch revision) was possible.
I suppose that after announcing that it is a Partner Showcase (also mini) the possibilities of new hardware have totally disappeared, right?
Hardware never gets announced in Directs, and this is just Nintendo having to make a Direct due to obligations with 3rd parties. Why they dont show 1st party games? We dont know it and dont think is worth outside of speculation without a basis (which is fine btw) to discuss due to us lacking almost all context
 
Hardware never gets announced in Directs, and this is just Nintendo having to make a Direct due to obligations with 3rd parties. Why they dont show 1st party games? We dont know it and dont think is worth outside of speculation without a basis (which is fine btw) to discuss due to us lacking almost all context
I think it depends, as like everything, it can be read both ways. If you want to see it the other way, they might be saving their first party announcements for the new device showcase.
I know Nintendo doesn't advertise hardware in their Directs. But yesterday it was being commented that this week there was a possibility that new hardware would be announced where third party games would shine, but in the end it seems that everything was a lie, sad.
 
But yesterday it was said that new hardware (a better performing Switch revision) was possible.
I suppose that after announcing that it is a Partner Showcase (also mini) the possibilities of new hardware have totally disappeared, right?
Drake shown in the direct, was always a pipe dream imo.
 
Their reasons for struggling to hit a target resolution are more mixed. Series S is more memory bandwidth limited here while PS5 is GPU limited I’d wager. While switch 2 will have a trick up it’s sleeve to be able to handle higher resolutions, the switch first has to be able to properly render some of these games That are targeting a resolution above 1080p. So, for conversation sake let’s put it into more context:

Series S|X and PS5 internally are rendering graphics at say 1440p but outputting at 2160p to display for the latter 2. That is to say, the quality they have is suitable for a 1440p display. Series S is limited and why it struggles to maintain it. PS5 and SX can do 1440p, but are pushed beyond that and show that they struggle.

Switch 2 games will get downgraded versions of the Series S version that is suitable for a 1080p, and go up from there. But it will not really be “right behind the PS5”


It’s just not realistic.

Like Dakhil said, One X with DLSS is a very good point of comparison to look at imo. That is to say, with DLSS, it can resolve an image similar to the One X which was 4k One S games

The RT in Drake cannot be compared to the pitifully awful RT in the other consoles. It’s apples to oranges there.

NVidia’s implementation is way ahead of the AMDs.

RDNA2 RT performance factors in things such as the Infinity cache which the consoles completely lack, so their RT is even worse than RDNA2, which is already worse than Ampere in RT.

We will have to wait and see first how it truly pans out for Drake before drawing a hasty conclusion that “because this can’t do it well, this for sure will not do it” since it’s more nuanced than that.


That said, the reason for my other post simply put is that setting expectations so high will just lead you to disappointment and sets others who are not tech literate enough to this unrealistic standard. No one in the thread was really saying that the switch was going in that direction before, but Alovon with his insane optimism that isn’t realistic here at all put the performance of it so high that it should be called out before others actually believe it non-ironically. It’s not good.



Like, the next switch will be a big improvement over the current switch, but let’s not put some unrealistic expectations into peoples heads. This is still a portable device that will be powered by a battery and by a tiny fan when it is docked to cool it. Sure it will use more efficient architecture, and will also have tricks up its sleeve, but not at all in any facet will it be able to compete with the highest and gaming consoles, period.

And the highest end are: PS5 + Series X


Let us not forget that this is a very technical thread, so what you say here people will assume it is how it is. We have people that read the thread left and right, even though most of them don’t comment in this thread. They may not understand everything, but they do understand the words “right behind the PS5“, you don’t have to be technically literate to understand what those words mean.


Already had someone that attempted to use Gflops as a comparison point between the switch, the PS3 and PS4 when the switch is closer to the PS4 than it is to the PS3 regardless of how you slice it. So the information they were comparing it to was completely wrong and misguided while also being misattributed.
@ILikeFeet

Good points.

RT implementation will be very interesting to see especially if Nintendo use it in the next 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9 etc. PS5 can do decent RT reflections from giant buildings in an open World at 60fps in Insomniac's Spider-Man engine and no one thought that would be possible due to PS5's puny RT hardware and Steam Deck can also do RT GI in Metro Exodus on Steam Deck at a mostly solid 30fps so you're right better not to rule anything out.
 
I know Nintendo doesn't advertise hardware in their Directs. But yesterday it was being commented that this week there was a possibility that new hardware would be announced where third party games would shine, but in the end it seems that everything was a lie, sad.
They normally reveal hardware revisions in July, expecting it this week was a pipe dream.
 
greetings everyone. first of all thanks to all the contributors on this thread for the excellent discussion & speculation on Switch Drake.

my perspective - Nintendo is an amazing position in so far as whenever they release it's a sell out for quite some time and pretty much regardless of price. i'm not seeing much smoke for 2022, Zelda to Spring 2023 seems by far the most concrete thing to go on. especially considering the game was supposedly near completion earlier this year, why delay unless it's to go balls out on extra features for the enhanced version.

so unless there's unannounced first party titles for the holiday, namely a new 3d Mario (Odyssey 2) it's pretty damn unlikely. always follow the software, no way they release this thing without a bang. i guess the question is how do they contain the smoke for the rest of 22 and how do they make a big deal about it while maintaining the perception that this isn't a new thing more an extension of the Switch family.
 
It won’t be in July either.
Eh I think early 2023 is still their contingency plan and late 2022 is plan A. That won't change just because of Zelda, if they need to push it out of the holiday season it'll be because the hardware needs it.
 
@ILikeFeet

Good points.

RT implementation will be very interesting to see especially if Nintendo use it in the next 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9 etc. PS5 can do decent RT reflections from giant buildings in an open World at 60fps in Insomniac's Spider-Man engine and no one thought that would be possible due to PS5's puny RT hardware and Steam Deck can also do RT GI in Metro Exodus on Steam Deck at a mostly solid 30fps so you're right better not to rule anything out.
I always felt people oversell how heavy RT can (heavy emphasis here) be. even treating it as an additive feature can still provide a big visual boost if taken into account from the start. Ratchet and Clank is an example of that. sure, a lot of that game could be done with SSR and cubemaps but the provides the extra punch because they decided to use RT day one

for a low powered system like Drake (comparatively), incorporating RT into the visual design day one will surprise people with how much it can help a game. I'm not joking when I say Pokemon should have it. RT shadows is commonly derided as a feature that doesn't do much, but Pokemon is god awful with shadows, to the point it would make a massive visual impact while being a minimal performance hit

I 100% expect RT for Drake games. the issue just might be it coming from more bespoke games. devs are already lagging on the potential of even the Series S
 
The number you’re giving is for 4k performance mode at 60fps, while the cost at 30fps is much lower, and this isn’t even taking into account the benefits of going with Ultra Performance or a DLSS branch optimized specifically for the hardware (which were also things he mentioned in the video). I also mentioned something that was also mentioned in the video, for 60fps games they would likely target a lower output resolution, like 1440p, thus decreasing the render time cost of DLSS. On top of that the system seems like it might be a good bit beefier than the theoretical he used as reference, so his render time cost numbers for DLSS on Switch 4k may not be accurate. It’s also weird that you use that video as your evidence when he was rather happy with what the theoretical Switch 4K in his video would be able to achieve with DLSS.

A fixed render time cost based on the hardware and better performance and lower power draw with DLSS are not mutually exclusive. For example, if a Switch 2 game could hit 4k 60fps natively then it would be able to reduce the power draw by dropping the base resolution and using DLSS. The system would have to have fewer tensor cores than literally anybody expects for DLSS to not be worth it compared to native.
If the DLSS implementation in Drake straight up kills off the possibility to play at 60 FPS, then Nintendo will have a problem with that. If all it leaves is a small window in which both DLSS and 60 FPS can coexist, then it must prove that the visual experience won't be noticeably worse than when not applied.
This is true of literally every rendering ability a GPU has. Resolution is a trade off between performance and IQ.


That's the opposite of DLSS's use case. While DLSS may fundamentally be an upscaler, when building a game from scratch, DLSS isn't employed to increase image quality, but to retain image quality while increasing FPS. DLSS/FSR 2.x are techniques for slightly reducing image quality, while increasing framerates.


As long as there are physical pixels, you're going to rasterize. If you run at sub-native res to a pixel screen, you will upscale, period, end of story. The whole point in next gen reconstruction is that your rasterizer touches 1/4 the number of pixels, and upscales while inferring never rasterized or rendered detail.


Because native rendering of each individual pixel means a perfect relationship between increase in pixels and increase in transistors, a trend which would continue until either pixel or transistor density hits the Planck limit, and transistors are going to get there first. There is literally no single GPU vendor who believes native, realtime rendering of UHD content is the best use of silicon. There is no near future world where silicon "catches up" to 4k and upscaling techniques get dropped.

TAAU is a common technique in AAA games on existing consoles and PC, and becoming increasingly ubiquitous. If you don't have dedicated hardware, it runs on the existing shader cores. For those games (read "most of them over the next 5 years") running on fixed function hardware is a better use of silicon and electricity than the alternative. Is there a single Nintendo game other than Switch Sports that uses a AA solution? Even at extremely low TOPS, tensor cores are probably a win in silicon usage for DLAA alone, even for games we don't think of as struggling against the hardware's limitations.


That is true.


It's an excellent video. It is also an extremely hand-wavy, intentionally pessimistic analysis, based on year old data about Orin, and a single slide about an ADAS chip that hasn't been discussed since. If you take all of Alex's analysis exactly as is, but plug in current data about actually released hardware you get a 1.5-2.5x performance improvement.


Battaglia's conclusion is that 4k gaming on this Switch will be at 30fps. Even using his extremely pessimistic numbers suggest that NuSwitch's TOPS, then DLSS remains a solid option for even HD level gaming. For example, BotW runs at 900p30fps when docked, dropping to 810p under stress, and 27fps in Korok forest (exaggerated by vsync).

Combining these numbers with Alex's suggests a NuSwitch with no additional power just DLSS would get BotW up to a smooth, Korok Forest Resistant 1080p20fps, at 12 watts of power draw. The mod/OC community has gotten the same result with the current switch at 25 watts of power draw.

Assuming Updated Alex Numbers, that gets you 1440p30fps. Again, this assumes that there is 0 improvement in the rest of the device.

You're absolutely correct in this regard, especially at very low numbers of TOPS. However, it is unlikely that in the cases where DLSS overhead at low TOPS represents an excessive portion of the framebudget, that spending that silicon/powerdraw on additional shader core perf will result in robustly higher IQ/framerates.
To everyone new to this thread, here is a post that crushes it. Yes, the poster debunked some of my assumptions, and it is brilliant nonetheless. It explains different usages of DLSS, why it is still desirable for a device that relies on low TDP and why it potentially future proofs the console.

@oldpuck : your last sentence must be proved though. Do we have any data that suggests that using DLSS always improves either IQ or framerate?
 
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the only scenario where the Zelda delay makes any sense, presuming it's launching this year, is if there's other big titles to use as 'launch' titles still unannounced. guess we'll see pretty soon but it looks like they'll try and milk every last drop from things like Pokemon before switching gears in 2023. Spring is also a pretty big window, lots of wiggle room like they're unsure of the exact timeline for now. and I don't think it's a problem with Zelda being unfinished, seems like it was always going to be ready this holiday if they wanted.
 
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If the DLSS implementation in Drake straight up kills off the possibility to play at 60 FPS, then Nintendo will have a problem with that. If all it leaves is a small window in which both DLSS and 60 FPS can coexist, then it must prove that the visual experience won't be noticeably worse than when not applied.
if they want 60fps with DLSS, they will get it. the only actual limitation is them not wanting to give up some heavy effects. but those would cost more to render than DLSS
 
It would be so funny if we got a “pro revision” that’s a miniscule update. Something to take BoTW from 900p to 1080p 30fps in docked mode 😂
Just out of curiosity since you're well versed in Nintendo's financial briefings and such, did you take a look at fwd-bwd's post about their raw material inventory level a few pages back?

 
Just out of curiosity since you're well versed in Nintendo's financial briefings and such, did you take a look at fwd-bwd's post about their raw material inventory level a few pages back?


I did. It’s interesting but not definitive. This analysis is muddied by the fact that there are various supply chain issues so many, many different companies have been stockpiling (higher safety stock) components in inventory to avoid/limit production shortfalls. So it could be either.

I’m more drawn to the Company’s forecast of 21m units. We know that they lowball the software guidance but not the hardware guidance.

Given that unit sales are down in most regions in the June quarter, it implies a much bigger second half of the fiscal year. It’s plausible to me they are planning some additional hardware for either the holiday season or March quarter. But it might be minor by our standards.
 
if they want 60fps with DLSS, they will get it. the only actual limitation is them not wanting to give up some heavy effects. but those would cost more to render than DLSS
Or drop the DLSS resolution to 1440p, which significantly reduces the render time cost of DLSS. This is all not even taking into account the fact that based on the Nvidia leak we’re probably looking at much better AI performance than the hypothetical Switch 2 that Alex was using for that DF video.
 
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