• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

There is a user who loves using bullet points. He is not the only one though.

This is a misconception. DLSS has a fixed cost that is tied to the output resolution. Depending on how many tensor cores you have, the cost is more or less high. In the case of a portable console like the Switch, Alex Battaglia has estimated that applying DLSS would eat up around 10 ms in each frame, leaving a paltry 6 ms to render the game at base resolution (in this case, the former would be 4k and the latter 1080p).

A game that would render frames at 6 ms outputs at 160 fps. If this happens at 1080p, there is a fat chance it would do so quicker than at 60 fps at 4k. So, there is no clear way to predict (in this example at least) that DLSS is indeed a smarter way to render graphics. And that leads to the next question:

For the reason above. DLSS is simply not a net gain for all usages.
The number you’re giving is for 4k performance mode at 60fps, while the cost at 30fps is much lower, and this isn’t even taking into account the benefits of going with Ultra Performance or a DLSS branch optimized specifically for the hardware (which were also things he mentioned in the video). I also mentioned something that was also mentioned in the video, for 60fps games they would likely target a lower output resolution, like 1440p, thus decreasing the render time cost of DLSS. On top of that the system seems like it might be a good bit beefier than the theoretical he used as reference, so his render time cost numbers for DLSS on Switch 4k may not be accurate. It’s also weird that you use that video as your evidence when he was rather happy with what the theoretical Switch 4K in his video would be able to achieve with DLSS.

A fixed render time cost based on the hardware and better performance and lower power draw with DLSS are not mutually exclusive. For example, if a Switch 2 game could hit 4k 60fps natively then it would be able to reduce the power draw by dropping the base resolution and using DLSS. The system would have to have fewer tensor cores than literally anybody expects for DLSS to not be worth it compared to native.
 
Last edited:
Hey everyone! Brand new user, but been around on video game forums for a long time. Though, also been away from them for a long time too!

So, E3 season always brings out the detective in me, and I've stumbled across here, and it seems like a great group! Anyways, in my snooping, I came across some new information which is very, very interesting. But, being new, and not knowing the "protocol" of things, I don't want to just go and start spilling a bunch of stuff out. Is there someone I should DM about this information to see what they think before sharing?

Aside from this, I've really enjoyed the discussion the last several pages regarding hardware! Really have learned a lot, so it's definitely appreciated being able to read the back and forth going on! Looking forward to hanging out with everyone!
 
Quick thought on storage speed: If the concern is being viable for multiplatform ports, then the actual benchmark to compare against is PC, IMO.

From a bird's eye view, I think that the situation can be stratified as:
Is HDD sufficient?
If no, is (random average) SATA SSD sufficient?
If no, is (random average) NVMe SSD of PCIe gen 3 sufficient?
If no, is (random average) NVMe SSD of PCIe gen 4 sufficient?

And my assumption is that each further tier a game lands in effectively shrinks the potential userbase for a PC version. So I think that for marketshare reach purposes, games meant to be multiplat will probably not require all that high storage speeds; should remain within mobile tech's limits.
Of course, we'll have to actually see what happens with Drake :unsure:
...and as an aside, I'm fairly confident that requiring above PCIe gen 3 will be a non-starter for several years yet; asking PC players to replace their otherwise-perfectly functional, recently bought drive just to play a game sounds silly for the time being.

Quick repetition of thought on Xbox Series S specifically: It will not age well. So far I'm getting the impression that output res target below 4k (ie lower internal render res to work with) combined with not having all that many shaders to spare in the first place is not good for something like FSR 2

FSR 2's source code should be released by now, right? I'm curious about the amount of shaders being used for reconstruction. Is it a flat percentage or a constant, or it's an amount that varies case by case?
as far as SSDs go, we have yet to see a game really take advantage of it beyond loading speeds. the closest is Ratchet and Clank and that can get by with Sata speeds. probably not even that given sequential reads aren't what matters when loading assets for a game

as for FSR2, the source code is out (and has been hacked into DLSS games). the amount of shaders used would probably vary in a case by case basis, but the time for the upscale scales with the gpu tier, similar to DLSS
 
Hey everyone! Brand new user, but been around on video game forums for a long time. Though, also been away from them for a long time too!

So, E3 season always brings out the detective in me, and I've stumbled across here, and it seems like a great group! Anyways, in my snooping, I came across some new information which is very, very interesting. But, being new, and not knowing the "protocol" of things, I don't want to just go and start spilling a bunch of stuff out. Is there someone I should DM about this information to see what they think before sharing?

Aside from this, I've really enjoyed the discussion the last several pages regarding hardware! Really have learned a lot, so it's definitely appreciated being able to read the back and forth going on! Looking forward to hanging out with everyone!
As far as I know in general you can share stuff without any verification in advance. People will chose if they believe you, what will be very hard with you being a fresh member.
 
DLSS and reconstructive technics in general are a trade-off between performance and IQ.
This is true of literally every rendering ability a GPU has. Resolution is a trade off between performance and IQ.

If you want more of former, you may choose to not use it. If you want more IQ, you add it in.
That's the opposite of DLSS's use case. While DLSS may fundamentally be an upscaler, when building a game from scratch, DLSS isn't employed to increase image quality, but to retain image quality while increasing FPS. DLSS/FSR 2.x are techniques for slightly reducing image quality, while increasing framerates.

Is it a game changer? In my opinion no, because you are still bound to the basic limitations of rasterization.
As long as there are physical pixels, you're going to rasterize. If you run at sub-native res to a pixel screen, you will upscale, period, end of story. The whole point in next gen reconstruction is that your rasterizer touches 1/4 the number of pixels, and upscales while inferring never rasterized or rendered detail.

Why not then use the unit's soc real estate and power for purely drawing pixels?
Because native rendering of each individual pixel means a perfect relationship between increase in pixels and increase in transistors, a trend which would continue until either pixel or transistor density hits the Planck limit, and transistors are going to get there first. There is literally no single GPU vendor who believes native, realtime rendering of UHD content is the best use of silicon. There is no near future world where silicon "catches up" to 4k and upscaling techniques get dropped.

TAAU is a common technique in AAA games on existing consoles and PC, and becoming increasingly ubiquitous. If you don't have dedicated hardware, it runs on the existing shader cores. For those games (read "most of them over the next 5 years") running on fixed function hardware is a better use of silicon and electricity than the alternative. Is there a single Nintendo game other than Switch Sports that uses a AA solution? Even at extremely low TOPS, tensor cores are probably a win in silicon usage for DLAA alone, even for games we don't think of as struggling against the hardware's limitations.

This is a misconception. DLSS has a fixed cost that is tied to the output resolution. Depending on how many tensor cores you have, the cost is more or less high
That is true.

In the case of a portable console like the Switch, Alex Battaglia has estimated that applying DLSS would eat up around 10 ms in each frame,
It's an excellent video. It is also an extremely hand-wavy, intentionally pessimistic analysis, based on year old data about Orin, and a single slide about an ADAS chip that hasn't been discussed since. If you take all of Alex's analysis exactly as is, but plug in current data about actually released hardware you get a 1.5-2.5x performance improvement.

leaving a paltry 6 ms to render the game at base resolution (in this case, the former would be 4k and the latter 1080p).
Battaglia's conclusion is that 4k gaming on this Switch will be at 30fps. Even using his extremely pessimistic numbers suggest that NuSwitch's TOPS, then DLSS remains a solid option for even HD level gaming. For example, BotW runs at 900p30fps when docked, dropping to 810p under stress, and 27fps in Korok forest (exaggerated by vsync).

Combining these numbers with Alex's suggests a NuSwitch with no additional power just DLSS would get BotW up to a smooth, Korok Forest Resistant 1080p20fps, at 12 watts of power draw. The mod/OC community has gotten the same result with the current switch at 25 watts of power draw.

Assuming Updated Alex Numbers, that gets you 1440p30fps. Again, this assumes that there is 0 improvement in the rest of the device.
For the reason above. DLSS is simply not a net gain for all usages.
You're absolutely correct in this regard, especially at very low numbers of TOPS. However, it is unlikely that in the cases where DLSS overhead at low TOPS represents an excessive portion of the framebudget, that spending that silicon/powerdraw on additional shader core perf will result in robustly higher IQ/framerates.
 
Combining these numbers with Alex's suggests a NuSwitch with no additional power just DLSS would get BotW up to a smooth, Korok Forest Resistant 1080p20fps, at 12 watts of power draw. The mod/OC community has gotten the same result with the current switch at 25 watts of power draw.
I assume you mean 30fps, right?
 
It should be noted that there was a flaw in his assessment, he quite literally did not account the Ampere does DLSS differently than Turing and his calculated metric. Extrapolating from that is assuming that the switch will be Turing-based and it will be an ADAS chip. This speaks for itself but you cannot infer based on that anymore.

It’s good to get an idea, but don’t take that video for gospel.

It’s not accurate or applicable for this scenario in a neat manner.
 
It should be noted that there was a flaw in his assessment, he quite literally did not account the Ampere does DLSS differently than Turing and his calculated metric. Extrapolating from that is assuming that the switch will be Turing-based and it will be an ADAS chip. This speaks for itself but you cannot infer based on that anymore.

It’s good to get an idea, but don’t take that video for gospel.

It’s not accurate or applicable for this scenario in a neat manner.
The main thing is that the video proved DLSS on a new Switch was indeed viable, even if the video very much undershot what the device will likely actually be capable of.
 
Biggest difference is buy-in. Switch started with tepid 3rd party support, so it missed out on a lot of multiplats during the peak years of the PS4/XONE era, or the games that could make it were put into production after they had released so fans like us put them into the 'late port' category. or as surprise 'impossible ports' while hand wrining about certain specific games not making it. There's certainly a bit of not appreciating what we did get as well.

That's not to mention the Switch 2 specs puts it squarely in range of the lowest common denominator low-end PC gaming rigs, which means, if it runs on a PC, it can run on it. Switch was a bit too far behind to fit into that.
That’s an excuse I just don’t buy at this point. If we take JP for instance games that the Switch could run still don’t make it or even look to being appearing. Companies could have moved faster on taking advantage of Switch’s peak years yet really haven’t.

That sounds nice but I just don’t see 3rd parties putting in the effort to consistently include Drake day & date with their releases. Never mind a year plus after the fact. This goes doubly if the Drake is cross gen & we move further into the current gen. Like are we expecting the companies to make en mass exclusive Drake games at the outset cause that doesn’t seem realistic. By the time we get pass that we’ll be right back where we started asking why companies still refuse to put a lot of current gen games on the system.

For me personally 3rd parties are going to have to prove it long before I believe that this time it’s different.
 
Man Xenoblade 2 would look insane with better IQ. Finally really putting time into the game after owning it for years. Was trying to hold out for a more powerful Switch, but with Xenoblade 3 around the corner seems kind of pointless. Like legit though wandering through Uraya right now, I could see this game blowing people away if/when it gets a glow up on Drake.
Xenoblade 2 (and Torna)'s IQ on the current switch I don't have much trouble with on docked mode. the Temporal anti alasing and sharpening looked pretty good in docked mode. Xenoblade DE on the other hand, toned it down and it looks worse to me. Especially in big fields in Bionis. Of course, larger draw distances would be fantastic as well. Thats the only other
I’d actually be blown away with PS4 Pro after DLSS.

The shouldn't be too bad. PS4 Pro is just PS4 games in 1440p. If we somehow get 3 TFLOPs before DLSS in docked mode, that would be really close to PS4 Pro performance. Before DLSS probably won't be possible, and I think my main worry for that is the bandwidth. Can it be achievable with only 102 GB/a bandwidth, even with Nvidia's better compression tech and increased cache? Maybe. We'll see. I do think if we had a switch pro (900gflops-1 TFLOPs)b released with 50 GB/s bandwidth would trade blows with xbone. But I'm not holding my breath with 102 GB/a bandwidth vs 217 GB/s with PS4 pro, without DLSS.. With DLSS should be possible.

What I'm not suspecting is PS4 games at 4k with DLSS. Maybe matching Xbone games at 4k but with DLSS enabled (basically x bone x) is doable, if we get 3 TFLOPs in docked or close to that.

Both. The hardware is next-gen on paper, but most of us don’t think Nintendo will advertise it that way…at least not at first. The first two years will have cross-gen games, so don’t expect Nintendo Drake exclusives until 2024 at the earliest. By then they might ramp up marketing and discontinue one of the OG models.



I think the games will sell the hardware. They may not call it next-gen, but MK10 exclusively on Drake will.

I don't think it will be too much different than PS5 and x series at launch. I don't recall them having 1st party exclusives at launch, but they did have some third party exclusives. That's what I imagine will happen with Drake.



1st party and some (maybe most) third parties shared, with some third parties exclusives (not possible on current switch) on Drake/Switch 2. Perhaps maybe some cloud third party games on switch while native on Switch 2, but I dunno how cloud games are going sales wise.
People shouldn't worry about it being advertised as a pro model. Nintendo can look at PS5 and x series. don't recall
them having 1st party exclusives at launch. All 1st parties and most third parties were shared with previous gen, with some third party exclusives at launch. Previous gen will have support for a few more years.

Both. The hardware is next-gen on paper, but most of us don’t think Nintendo will advertise it that way…at least not at first. The first two years will have cross-gen games, so don’t expect Nintendo Drake exclusives until 2024 at the earliest. By then they might ramp up marketing and discontinue one of the OG models.

I think the games will sell the hardware. They may not call it next-gen, but MK10 exclusively on Drake will.
I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo has mk10 builds for both switch and switch 2 right now and they haven't decided if they will make it switch 2 exclusive. This is assuming if mk10 is out one year after mk9's last DLC.

MK10 could be Switch's last swan song. Basically built for the Switch and perhaps 900p 60fps docked on it while it's an easy 1080p 60fps with better lighting and shadows and supporting 4k 60fps, with some ray trace support with DLSS at 1440p resolution. Hell maybe 1440p at 120fps too.

It really depends on how fast they want to bag the switch. If they want to last it as long as PS4, they might give it to them.
 
Last edited:
0
As far as I know in general you can share stuff without any verification in advance. People will chose if they believe you, what will be very hard with you being a fresh member.
Thanks a lot for the reply!

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.


Yet again, I just though it'd be interesting to share until we get to hear anything new! I "can" share the link to all these things, but because he was so worried, I don't want to cause any ruckus towards him. But, I have everything saved and available if anyone wants to check them out via DM or something like that.

EDIT: Just updated everything!
 
Last edited:


Only tangentially related to the above discussion - here is a screenshot of a machine translated Chinese language fan forum showing a screenshot of a machine language translation of this forum.

We are all Uncle Nintendo
 
Only tangentially related to the above discussion - here is a screenshot of a machine translated Chinese language fan forum showing a screenshot of a machine language translation of this forum.

We are all Uncle Nintendo
famiboards > internet > famiboards
 


Only tangentially related to the above discussion - here is a screenshot of a machine translated Chinese language fan forum showing a screenshot of a machine language translation of this forum.

We are all Uncle Nintendo

LOL!!! :ROFLMAO: I think I'm really gonna like it on here!
 


Only tangentially related to the above discussion - here is a screenshot of a machine translated Chinese language fan forum showing a screenshot of a machine language translation of this forum.

We are all Uncle Nintendo


Who among us is the ambassador uncle? o.o

I doubt they’re just lurking at this stage.
 
Last edited:


Only tangentially related to the above discussion - here is a screenshot of a machine translated Chinese language fan forum showing a screenshot of a machine language translation of this forum.

We are all Uncle Nintendo

Wait is that Fwd's post about the amount of material stockpile Nintendo has?
 
To take my mind off the supreme court absurdity (and it's not only RvW), I looked at Nintendo's shareholder disclosures (source) for clues to the next Switch model's production and release window. Below is the unconsolidated inventory data from the Switch era (FY03/18 to FY03/22), and I highlighted the outlying numbers for further discussion:

qMCUB4C.png

  • The finished goods at the end of 03/2018 was high because of the 3DS stock.
  • At the end of 03/2019, the raw materials and work in progress were both elevated, possibly to ramp up the early product of Lite and v2 Switch. As you may recall, the Lite backplate was leaked in 04/2019.
  • Due to COVID factory shutdown, the finished goods and work in progress at the end of 03/2020 were both at the lowest levels.
  • The strong demands stemmed from shelter-in-place resulted in a low finished goods (stock turning over quickly) and high work in progress (mass production to meet demands) at the end of 03/2021.
  • Things are getting interesting this year. As one'd notice immediately, Nintendo is stockpiling raw materials for no apparent reason, while the finished goods and work in progress remain stable.
  • The money tied up in the raw materials is about twice as much as in 03/2019, back when Nintendo was ramping up the Lite and v2 production. Are they preparing to start manufacturing a new model that would cost much more than the Lite and v2? (Yes, there's inflation going on, but that alone doesn't explain the 2x increase.)
  • Note that the work in progress level is not elevated. It seems to indicate that at least at the end of 03/2022, the production of this new model had not been commenced.
Tl;dr, at the end of 03/2022, Nintendo's raw material inventory was at the highest level since the Switch was introduced. The previous peak (03/2019) was for the Lite and v2 production. If this is a precursor of the next Switch model, the work in progress inventory level suggests that the manufacturing of said model had not yet begun by March.

Disclaimer: I'm not a financial analyst. Vash and other experts probably can shed more light on this.

So I have been extremely skeptical in regards to new hardware coming anytime soon but this post really seems like new hardware could indeed be coming in 2023 and more then just another basic revision. Seems pretty definitive to me unless I am missing something...
 
Quick thought on storage speed: If the concern is being viable for multiplatform ports, then the actual benchmark to compare against is PC, IMO.

From a bird's eye view, I think that the situation can be stratified as:
Is HDD sufficient?
If no, is (random average) SATA SSD sufficient?
If no, is (random average) NVMe SSD of PCIe gen 3 sufficient?
If no, is (random average) NVMe SSD of PCIe gen 4 sufficient?

And my assumption is that each further tier a game lands in effectively shrinks the potential userbase for a PC version. So I think that for marketshare reach purposes, games meant to be multiplat will probably not require all that high storage speeds; should remain within mobile tech's limits.
Of course, we'll have to actually see what happens with Drake :unsure:
...and as an aside, I'm fairly confident that requiring above PCIe gen 3 will be a non-starter for several years yet; asking PC players to replace their otherwise-perfectly functional, recently bought drive just to play a game sounds silly for the time being.

Quick repetition of thought on Xbox Series S specifically: It will not age well. So far I'm getting the impression that output res target below 4k (ie lower internal render res to work with) combined with not having all that many shaders to spare in the first place is not good for something like FSR 2

FSR 2's source code should be released by now, right? I'm curious about the amount of shaders being used for reconstruction. Is it a flat percentage or a constant, or it's an amount that varies case by case?
I don't think the internal flash storage is going to be the problem, assuming UFS 2.1 is the minimum storage medium used. I think the problem lies with the external storage and the Game Cards.

And yes, a couple of days ago for the Xbox Series X|S and Xbox One, with respect to FSR 2.0.
 
So do we think that the raw material chart is convincing evidence of major new hardware coming in the next 12 months?
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom