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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST|

When will the next general Direct (full or mini) be?

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I love the idea that Nintendo aired the Kirby trailer because it needed it for the financial briefing rather than Nintendo airing the trailer because the game is coming out in 2 months.
 
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Raccoon said:
if it's really awful maybe it'll be a Direct shadowdrop
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Eh it'll probably be a physical game considering it seems to be aimed at casual audiences, so probably not a shadowdrop.

Plus they don't often put those casual games (like Labo or Ring Fit) in Directs, it'll probably get a tweet with a video and that's all.
 
Legion of Primes said:
Here’s a thought. Even though there were a couple of instances last year, both Triangle Strategy and Kirby releasing the same month does show Nintendo is willing to release multiple games a month. They did it last year with Metroid and Mario Party. I think that should be taken into consideration when trying to guess the release
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This happens more than people realise. In September 2019 Nintendo published 3 games internationally - Daemon x Machina, Dragon Quest XI S, and Link's Awakening. They'd published Astral Chain at the end of August, and had 2 major releases in October 2019 too (Ring Fit, Luigi's Mansion 3).

Last year also had a run from April through July where there were 6 to 8 games published. People often seem to miss these kinds of clusters when predicting release schedules.
 
We're not even halfway through January, and you all are acting like #TeamJanuary has already lost. Nintendo is just getting the small fry like...

checks notes

Pokemon and a 3D Kirby out of the way so it doesn't clog up the surely still coming January Direct. 😏
 
EvilChameleon said:
Would they do a Pokemon Presents on Pokemon Day like last year, even though it's just a month after Legends releases?
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I don't see why not. Would be a prefect time to announce things like the promised Home updates (which will almost certainly launch alongside a Sword and Shield update), any potential DLC for Legends, and any other spin-offs that they have planned for this year.
 
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Though super unlikely since it got recently delayed I'd love to see more of Marvel's Midnight Suns in the next Direct. I'm pretty sure there's still two characters left to be revealed.
 
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Yeah, early year Directs haven't really had a fixed place during the Switch era and seem to be context sensitive.

2017 had the January Presentation and no general until April.

2018 had the January Labo reveal, January Mini, and March general.

2019 had the Yoshi date reveal in January, February Direct, and Pokemon presentation in February

2020 I only remember the March Mini as the world went to shit

2021 had a January date reveal for New Pokemon Snap (I think?), a February general, and a February Pokemon presentation

2019 and 2021 had the same format and right now that seems closest to what we should expect this year: game date reveal in January, general Direct and Pokemon presents in February. But that still leaves 3 years which took a different approach.
 
Raccoon said:
this simply isn't true
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Exhibit A:
Direct-3.png


Exhibit B:
Direct-2.png


Exhibit C:
Direct-1.png



What am I missing here???
 
randomengine said:
Exhibit A:
Direct-3.png


Exhibit B:
Direct-2.png


Exhibit C:
Direct-1.png



What am I missing here???
Click to expand...
This is a thread where the betting is to guess on when the next general directs will happen. As is stated clearly in the rules:

"These teams are for the first full or Mini general Direct of the year. If there is a Direct Mini in January, for example, #TeamJanuary will win."

Even if it was obvious, it would still be fun to talk about. There isn't really that concrete a pattern.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
This is a thread where the betting is to guess on when the next general directs will happen. As is stated clearly in the rules:

"These teams are for the first full or Mini general Direct of the year. If there is a Direct Mini in January, for example, #TeamJanuary will win."

Even if it was obvious, it would still be fun to talk about. There isn't really that concrete a pattern.
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We are getting a direct in mid-February (I don't know anything - I am just being assertive), whether it is game-specific is another matter. There hasn't been a mini-direct in January for the past 3 years.
 
randomengine said:
We are getting a direct in mid-February (I don't know anything - I am just being assertive), whether it is game-specific is another matter. There hasn't been a mini-direct in January for the past 3 years.
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Right, but what we're saying is that the specific purpose of this thread is about a General Direct - a game-specific Direct doesn't count (while still being welcome, of course). All of the #Team___ and the betting and all that is about a General Direct
 
SammyJ9 said:
Right, but what we're saying is that the specific purpose of this thread is about a General Direct - a game-specific Direct doesn't count (while still being welcome, of course). All of the #Team___ and the betting and all that is about a General Direct
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to be fair, it is relevant to say that January hasn't had anything in the past three years

the more fundamental disagreement ought to be whether three years mean that much
 
I think it's safe to expect the direct to be in February, like it's been for the past few years. It'd make sense too because Pokemon would already be out, they could do another Kirby overview before it launches a month later, and they could even potentially shadow drop an e-shop exclusive that would be their first party February game.

I figure February is a safe bet, and if it doesn't happen then, it'll be more surprising and unusual, based on recent trends.
 
Raccoon said:
to be fair, it is relevant to say that January hasn't had anything in the past three years

the more fundamental disagreement ought to be whether three years mean that much
Click to expand...

I think there's definately a distinct strategy/cadence to their directs since 2017's 1st Switch September direct (not including the January presentation they had to do because a console was launching in March) and since they've generally eschewed January directs since, its safe to say they are likely aiming for February.

The thing is, marketing is the end process of a much bigger strategy and patterns and historical precedence doesn't always hold and other factors could override marketing, like COVID in 2020
 
Dekuman said:
I think there's definately a distinct strategy/cadence to their directs since 2017's 1st Switch September direct (not including the January presentation they had to do because a console was launching in March) and since they've generally eschewed January directs since, its safe to say they are likely aiming for February.

The thing is, marketing is the end process of a much bigger strategy and patterns and historical precedence doesn't always hold and other factors could override marketing, like COVID in 2020
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2018 was January. It may have been a mini but it announced a lot of first party projects
 
Raccoon said:
2018 was January. It may have been a mini but it announced a lot of first party projects
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True, so we can't discount that. But I feel like that might be more down to it being the first year of the Switch and them wanting to announce as much as possible and really keep the hype flowing and not leave as big of a gap before having another Direct. But that's just in my head, of course, who knows.
 
Raccoon said:
2018 was January. It may have been a mini but it announced a lot of first party projects
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Yeah I know they had a mini in 2018, but i was responding to your comment they haven't had one since then. Which i agree with is definately a preference. But preferences isn't always enough. We could have one in March instead of february as well. The general gist of my thinking is, historical patterns are useful but not always a predictor
 
the one “pattern” I guess I can force for early year directs is that a feb general comes if Nintendo has their shit together pretty much

2018 and 2020 - the former was carried by remasters and the latter has covid, mini directs replaced

2019 and 2021 - both these years had a pretty solid slate imo, full February general

And since 2018 was 4 years ago, and 2019 and 2021 were the normal years whereas 2020 has covid, I’d assume a February general is kind of the normal procedure theyre aiming for - directs in February, June, September
 
Do I need to post my data again? January Directs are either acts of desperation, are unique (introduce hardware, January 2017 presentation), or a mini. We have not had a general full length January Direct since 2015 (7 years!).

If we do get a mini in January, then team February would be the only one losing, as we would then be most likely to get a follow up Mar X2 direct. But Nintendo doesn’t need to rush out a mini now because they have January and March both set.

Btw there’s nothing in February…which would be the perfect time for a general Direct to shadow drop a couple of titles…
 
Last edited:
Facts. Statistics. Evidence. None of it means anything before the might of #TeamJanuary!
 
Alright TJ, you want some hope? We’ll look at the weeks when January Directs I’ve occurred and I’ll give you an interesting factoid about them.

First one was on Jan 23, 2013 which was the fourth week of January. So if it doesn’t happen this week, there’s still a chance for next week! What about the other one? Well that one was on Jan 14, 2015, the third week of January. So that chance is gone.

So chin up, team January! History and statistics provide a single ray of light for you next week!
 
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At least we're past the point of being convinced that Directs only happen in the first half of a month now. A couple years ago, we'd all be saying "Whelp, it didn't happen this week and next week is after the 15th so I guess pack it in until next month".

... I mean we're still kind of doing that now due to Kirby, but it's nice to not have that arbitrary date issue anymore! RIP #PatternPolice
 
I think the variation is caused by a different marketing focus.

For example, there was the suggestion from Imran Khan and others (I think) that 2020 would've had a Mario Direct in late April to announce that year's Mario stuff, had the pandemic not happened. So the marketing cadence that year was planned to be different; first an emphasis on Animal Crossing, then an emphasis on Mario. In 2018, Nintendo had a wacky, new, expanded audience product to announce in January and launch early in the year - Labo. They then used Smash as the main focus for much of their advertising from March onwards.
 
They just dropped a 13-minute Legends gameplay preview, something me and some friends of mine have been begging for. Was pretty good, looking forward to checking the game out in 2 weeks
 
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They must have so much new stuff for the January Direct that they are getting the games we already know about out of the way.
 
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I'm picking #teamenjoythegames , my perception of time changes after 2020, now I can hardly build anticipation for anything, if it comes it will, if not, no matter how much you want it, it won't come... And directs will come, sooner or later 😌
 
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