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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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ILikeFeet said:
the only thing that can change is ram amount and clock speeds. the chip is set in stone
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And also the capacity (amount) of the internal flash storage can be changed. (The type of internal flash storage supported is determined by the internal flash storage controller inside the SoC being used.)
 
Imo I don't want to take these officials as 100% confirmation since sources like VGC and Bloomberg have been off the mark a decent number of times. I think waiting for a official release date in March is a better idea, since these reports could be inaccurate or wires might have been crossed haha.
 
Sol said:
So I'm reading the history of the rumors/leaks of the Switch 2 in the OP, and have to say it's extremely fascinating watching all of these small details come together over the years to form a larger picture.
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I sometimes forget who has been here since the beginning and who hasn't. Pardon if I've come in too hard on someone, assuming they're caught up.

Sol said:
But a few questions -

1. There were reports of dev kits being sent out for a "4K" capable Switch all the way back in 2021 and 2022. Was this for T239? We would know if there was some other chip that was developed for those dev kits right?
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The only way we'd know is if it showed up in a leak, which it didn't despite the Nvidia hack. What it was, we have no idea, except that it definitely was not T239. T239's timeline doesn't line up with the 4k Switch.

Sol said:
2. The illegal Nvidia hack mentioned Samsung as the semiconductor foundry company for T239 (which I wasn't aware of). So....that seems like pretty damning evidence that this is not being planned for a TSMC node. What changed recently to make people think this is now on TSMC 4N?
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Nvidia has a file in their code that lists thousands of tiny properties of their chips. It lists Samsung as the foundry company for T239. However, several other chips have the wrong foundry listed in these files, and it looks like the Drake/T239 was just a copy of the Orin/T232 file, which might not yet have been completely updated at the time. So it's not definitive.

dunce said:
So the specs are fixed at this point right? No hope for some slight tweaks with this delay?
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Not really? 4 months isn't time to tweak the hardware itself, even the tiniest bit. But Nintendo can change clock speeds up to the last minute, and did on the Switch. But even then I wouldn't expect big swings unless problems are found. Devkits are out.

Raploz said:
What are the chances Nintendo gave up on the T239 and is using something else, either from Nvidia or another company (and thus had to delay the launch)?
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Zero. And by zero I mean really zero, not close to zero, no 1%, or 0.01%, or 0.0001%. A chip change would take 2 years, minimum, and we had solid evidence it was still T239 as recently as late last year.

But even if they could switch (heh) quickly, it's the hardware in the devkits, and they bake Nvidia specific features into their Software Development Kit. If it wasn't Nvidia, then Nintendo wouldn't be telling devs "hey, we're launching in Q1 2025", they'd be saying "we're taking back the devits, you're going to have to start development over." It has to be Nvidia.

There is no other Nvidia chip that can work. Literally, Nvidia doesn't have a chip that would physically go into a handheld and play video games, except the one that is in the Switch now, and the custom one they're designing for the next Switch. Again, replacing it with a new custom chip would reboot the design process, and we're back to a 2-3 year delay.

But let's pretend even that isn't an issue, that somehow Nintendo can make a new chip at Nvidia in months. Why? What new chip would they need? Nvidia has not developed new technology that can significantly improve on T239's design, it doesn't exist. So if they wanted a new chip, they need to build it off of unreleased Nvidia technology. Oh no, we're back to a 2-3 year development cycle.

The only remaining thing they could do is make a shittier chip, if for some reason they decided that T239 was too big or expensive for them. In which case, you'd see a signficant drop in performance. Which means you'd need to alter the devkits and change devs performance expectations so they can rebuild their games - and now we're back to pulling devkits and starting third party development over.

So yes, zero chance,
 
darthdiablo said:
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Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

BC doesn't, but enhanced BC absolutely would. This is what so tremendously frustrates me about this, the fact that the Switch 2 would sell millions on the back of 4k60 TotK and Mario Odyssey and the like. A huge delay like this because they just have to have the new Mario game at launch sucks...
famiboards.com famiboards.com
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Funny enough, I would have agreed with that post if GTA6 was launching on PC (and Steam Deck) as well but if it's only launching on PS5 and Series then the overlap isn't going to be as much of a problem.

EDIT: To elaborate, if it was coming out on PC at launch too then that would have meant people who want to play GTA6 on the go can play it on Steam Deck and the Switch 1's biggest strength was that it was the most reliable way to play new games in handheld form until the Steam Deck came out.
 
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Notsowise said:
The biggest problem here is that nintendo has everything to lose going against GTA6 launch.

Switch2 will be nothing … people won’t even acknowledge its release. GTA6 will be a monster.
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Unless they go with and not against... I don't doubt of they reaching Rockstar Games to have the title running on their platform if possible
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
What your describing here is different from what was said earlier.

In which case enhanced BC plays second fiddle to the exclusives announced as the main reason why people would wanna buy Redacted. Which enhanced BC would not even hold them for the first few months because there is actual software to play on their brand new expensive hardware. Which would make the comparison to OLED even stranger.
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No, I just didn't think I needed to say so explicitly that these people would also care about the exclusives coming in a few months. I wasn't saying that 10 million people would buy the system solely for enhanced BC for its entire life, or that Nintendo would wait until sometime after launch to announce exclusive software - hell, even Xbox kicked off the Series X announcement with an exclusive. The point of the comparison to the OLED is that the OLED didn't do this and yet still sold to millions of upgrade users, so a device that massively upgrades Switch games and also has its own exclusives coming within a few months of launch would logically do even better.

Tentacle-tropes said:
I never said they had to wait till March but if the presumption is that Nintendo is waiting for software then I would imagine they would like to have an actual product strategy; & not haphazardly throwing things against the wall since they released to early, & are currently panicking. If it is 3D Mario then then I would assume Nintendo would like to start off strong when it releases & follow that accordingly. While 3rd parties are nice they are not the main reason people buy Ninrendo systems thus they are relegated to supporting the main draws.
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I was interpreting "that would then get them through to, presumably, March before we start seeing a hint of exclusive software meant to facilitate further momentum for the system" as you saying there would be no exclusives until March.

Personally I think third-party stuff would be a nice add-on that would get some people to buy in. I agree that Nintendo software is what MOST people buy Nintendo hardware for, but putting aside the fact that I think some of those people would be drawn in by performance upgrades, I do think some people would absolutely buy it to play some third-party games on-the-go. Nintendo has seen success getting games like Doom Eternal and TW3 on Switch, and I think that initiative will only grow with Switch 2.
 
Something like 60% of Switch owners also own another console, so the idea that a significant portion of the current Switch base will be making a decision between Switch 2 and GTA6 is probably correct. Whether that really means anything of significance to launch, who knows.
 
I'm kinda hoping Nintendo responds to this like with the Switch Pro talks in 2021 before the OLED released, but that seems unlikely, doesn't it?
 
Yeah, I think I'm done with this thread for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure if I 100% believe all this stuff, but eh. Part of me feels a little dicked around. See y'all when this thing actually gets announced, whenever that'll be........
 
D36 said:
Yeah, I think I'm done with this thread for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure if I 100% believe all this stuff, but eh. Part of me feels a little dicked around. See y'all when this thing actually gets announced, whenever that'll be........
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It’s totally disconcerting, take care :(
 
D36 said:
Yeah, I think I'm done with this thread for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure if I 100% believe all this stuff, but eh. Part of me feels a little dicked around. See y'all when this thing actually gets announced, whenever that'll be........
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might join you
 
mr-burns-dont-forget.gif
 
BreakAtmo said:
No, I just didn't think I needed to say so explicitly that these people would also care about the exclusives coming in a few months. I wasn't saying that 10 million people would buy the system solely for enhanced BC for its entire life, or that Nintendo would wait until sometime after launch to announce exclusive software - hell, even Xbox kicked off the Series X announcement with an exclusive. The point of the comparison to the OLED is that the OLED didn't do this and yet still sold to millions of upgrade users, so a device that massively upgrades Switch games and also has its own exclusives coming within a few months of launch would logically do even better.



I was interpreting "that would then get them through to, presumably, March before we start seeing a hint of exclusive software meant to facilitate further momentum for the system" as you saying there would be no exclusives until March.

Personally I think third-party stuff would be a nice add-on that would get some people to buy in. I agree that Nintendo software is what MOST people buy Nintendo hardware for, but putting aside the fact that I think some of those people would be drawn in by performance upgrades, I do think some people would absolutely buy it to play some third-party games on-the-go. Nintendo has seen success getting games like Doom Eternal and TW3 on Switch, and I think that initiative will only grow with Switch 2.
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I personally don’t believe the delay is due to software but regardless of the enhanced BC or strong launch, Redacted will more than likely be sold out since it is viewed as a hot commodity. Having said that a strong launch + pipeline soon after, much like the Switch will probably be for the best. I view the enhanced BC as nice to have but not really moving the needle. But we’ll just agree to disagree on this topic.
 
I had a thought today about if they may want to delay the system for early 2025 when Super Nintendo World makes it’s way to Universal Orlando and the Donkey Kong expansion debuts.

Like a weird marketing synergy push all for 2025 while celebrating Mario’s 40th with his biggest adventure yet
 
Slash said:
AT THE EARLIEST???

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If they have to delay it past March 2025 (which is as Mochizuki says, is when a lot of publisher's FY's also end), I would expect quite a few devs to be disgruntled.

edit: I hope Furukawa doesn't let a perfect launch timing/software cadence become the enemy of a good one.
 
karmitt said:
I still don’t understand or really believe that story. I’m sure things were happening with hardware in the background but nobody was ever able to explain how we got from a 2023 revision release to a 2024 successor release.
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It is highly unlikely that a revision release in 2023 was ever on the cards. The most likely scenario is that those reports were an amalgam of old Switch OLED info and early Drake info. How that happened remains a mystery, but we don't really have solid evidence for anything existing between those two devices.
 
The cycle never ends. It’s hilarious that a lot people (myself included) thought it was going to end this year just weeks ago. “We’re finally at the finish line” “This is it” 💀.

Team 2021 to Team 2022 to 2023 to mid 2023 with TOTK to late 2023 to early 2024 to March 2024 to first half of 2024 to second half of 2024 and now 2025 💀.
 
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I might be in the minority here when I say I absolutely could not a fuck about Mario games. I don’t have any Mario games nor Smash; that’s not the reason I even bought the Switch.

So, if the reason they delayed the Switch 2 is only because their new Mario game isn’t ready, I’m gonna be annoyed lol
 
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At this point with how many updates and variations of "Q1 2025 launch" we've had, it almost feels like punishment/karma lol.





How I'm feeling now after a dozen plus Brazilian, VGC, Eurogamer, Nate, and Mochizuki updates over the entire day:

 
Instro said:
Something like 60% of Switch owners also own another console, so the idea that a significant portion of the current Switch base will be making a decision between Switch 2 and GTA6 is probably correct. Whether that really means anything of significance to launch, who knows.
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Like, unless 98+% of Switch owners are too distracted by GTA, they can probably have a launch matching that of Switch.
D36 said:
FUCK!!!!!
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What do you expect them to say, true or false? "No, we must vehemently deny there's been a delay in the machine we refuse to say exists."
Slash said:
AT THE EARLIEST???
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Well I mean, if it's next year, would you really expect it to be January or February? The only precedent at all would be that 3DS launched in one region in the last 3 days of February.
 
This is a bad look imo. A real ball drop. Seriously I believe this is type of move that requires new management or something. IMO new hardware should have launched already. This is just mind numbly risky to let your waning product dwindle for this long.

Buy your shares back and demand answers CHAD!
 
The timing thing is a tricky one especially for 3rd parties when you consider fiscal year Impacts. Nintendo probably doesn't mind if they get it out in March as long as they hit the Fiscal Year. They will benefit no matter what from that launch. It could negatively Impact 3rd parties though as the window to sell software before Fiscal year ends will be much smaller than if it launched in like September or October of 2024.
 
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Slash said:
AT THE EARLIEST???

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I don't see Nintendo going from "early to late 2024" to "March 2025 at the earliest"

I'm thinking some translation error.

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Serif said:
Yes, using age as a sole determinant of obsolescence isn't helpful when T239 is a customized chip designed for a certain degree of longevity and support as a hybrid console. If you read my follow-up posts you'll see I'm well aware that the architecture is four years old. Please don't selectively quote one post from pages ago and make a lengthy response when I elaborated several times.

That and simply saying 'this architecture is four years old, therefore it's outdated' does not track, there should be an explanation as to what features or capabilities are missing that would render it obsolete. Considering the GPU is DX12 complaint and supports features like DLSS, it seems very current to me.
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Yea, I read your follow-up’s after i posted…was posting as I was catching up with the thread. Sorry if I used your post as a jumping off point on how one measures architecture age of a new product.

Maybe I confused to whom your response was directed to. I absolutely do not feel this SoC will be “outdated” in 2025, or “too old”. I didn’t feel that way about the original switch and X1 either.

My response was coming from the many posts asking how “old” will the hardware be for Drake Switch when launched in 2025 compared to how old the hardware was when Switch 2017 launched. I thought when you said “can’t make a 1:1 comparable to X1” it was referring to those posts. Not the posts suggesting it will be “outdated”, those should be ignored I wasn’t commenting on those.
 
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Sorry Shareholder Chad, my conviction is weakening, I'm not worthy of being H1 gang anymore.

On a very slightly more serious note, I'm just worried I won't even live long enough to see this thing release anymore. I guess I get to work on my backlog which actually a very good thing but man, it still sucks.

I guess I'll frequent fami a bit less now until things get more positive.

Edit: while disappointing, I'm also not too mad about it. As long as the system ends up being good and sells good and gets good support, I'll wait, provided I actually live long enough to see this thing even get revealed.
 
And some weeks ago I was happy just because a Partner Direct would mean a Switch 2 reveal... a false hope for absolutely nothing 😪
 
necrolipe said:
And some weeks ago I was happy just because a Partner Direct would mean a Switch 2 reveal... a false hope for absolutely nothing 😪
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At this point I would settle for those Zelda HD Remasters. So far the Switch lineup this year looks just as dire as the elusive Switch 2 news.
 
Q1 2025 always meant March so "at the earliest" language isn't worrying. At the end of the day a 4 month delay ( let's be real it was going to launch in November) isn't going to make or break the successor as long as the first year has a solid lineup.
 
something feels off about this. it feels like some outside entity is trying to demotivate famiboards and by extension, nintendo fans in general LMAO. fuck this, i'm sticking to my prediction of an early march reveal. ofc nothing's confirmed 100% until nintendo makes an announcement. only if we go by march 2024 and no leaker confirms a march 2024 day then panic. until then i'm waiting
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