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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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So why does a handful of different devs targeting a Q1 2025 release mean anything?

Q1 is in no way a strange release period, especially in recent years. This year you've got a lot of highly anticipated games releasing in the first quarter of the year as well.
 
bmfrosty said:
Last post before I leave for the weekend. I'll be back Monday afternoon California time.

It all means nothing. Nothing until Nintendo says it means something. I expect launch games to be 2-3 Nintendo exclusives, a slew of updates for existing games that unlock frame rate to 60 or resolution to native 720/1080p, and a handful of late ports that couldn't happen before. Games being worked on for 2025 mean nothing, except that those games aren't coming out until 2025 and if they're true, that the Switch 2 will at latest release on the same day as those games. I doesn't mean that the Switch 2 won't release earlier than those games.

This thread is way too fucking excitable.
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XCite Thread.
 
Way I see it, if we hear about it next month in any detail whatsoever, it’s this year. If we don’t, it’s not. There’s no reason not to also delay providing information if you’re going to delay the release time frame.

If the thing’s not coming until next year, I’m pretty much ready to tune Nintendo out until then, TTYD notwithstanding.
 
bmfrosty said:
Last post before I leave for the weekend. I'll be back Monday afternoon California time.

It all means nothing. Nothing until Nintendo says it means something. I expect launch games to be 2-3 Nintendo exclusives, a slew of updates for existing games that unlock frame rate to 60 or resolution to native 720/1080p, and a handful of late ports that couldn't happen before. Games being worked on for 2025 mean nothing, except that those games aren't coming out until 2025 and if they're true, that the Switch 2 will at latest release on the same day as those games. I doesn't mean that the Switch 2 won't release earlier than those games.

This thread is way too fucking excitable.
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overreacting is what it's all about
 
Hermii said:
Name a specific example.

It could very well be inaccurate, confused information. Insider stuff is a game of telephone and it's inaccurate all the time. Using Nate's mid 2023 release date as an example again. That's the nature of insider info.

Or it could be accurate and the release date is indeed 2025.

Using Occams Razor, it's one of these two.
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Nate had been talking about a Late 2024 release and possible 2025 release as early last year Q2 when many people were stubbornly insisting on 2023 announcement and release. This was right around the time when John from DF mentioned that his sources were saying Switch Pro has been scrapped.

Nate also recently stated in this thread that 2025 might still be a possibility, likely because he's been hearing what a lot of other journalists are now reporting on: that Nintendo still wont be ready to launch by 2024.
 
Okay, I'm down for this. It will come when it comes. And that's all. Don't want to do tgis to me again like june 2020 and all that about the pro being the oled. Goodbye.
 
You know what 2025 is cool with me, I've got plenty of games to play on the Switch PRO I just bought.... oh wait that never happened. Im assuming its just another game of telephone gone wrong AGAIN.
 
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TomNookYankees said:
Nate had been talking about a Late 2024 release and possible 2025 release as early last year Q2 when many people were stubbornly insisting on 2023 announcement and release. This was right around the time when John from DF mentioned that his sources were saying Switch Pro has been scrapped.

Nate also recently stated in this thread that 2025 might still be a possibility, likely because he's been hearing what a lot of other journalists are now reporting on: that Nintendo still wont be ready to launch by 2024.
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What has this got to do with anything?

We know now there never was a Switch pro, and there never was hardware planned for release h1 2023. the "canned" hardware never existed in the first place.

I was using this as an example of insider info sometimes being confused.
 
Tbh, I was already expecting the Switch 2 to launch in November, so a 4 month delay isn't the end of the world. Still hope we hear something about it soon, though!
 
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Boxle said:
So why does a handful of different devs targeting a Q1 2025 release mean anything?

Q1 is in no way a strange release period, especially in recent years. This year you've got a lot of highly anticipated games releasing in the first quarter of the year as well.
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because it's the first release period given by 3rd party devs for the switch successor. It does say, while we don't need that confirmation, that the successor will be here no later than Q1 of next year. That's "news."

It also is telling that those devs either don't know or won't say the release period for the switch successor. Just when their games are planned for.
 
Truno said:
Crazy how little competition there is this year for a launch. It'd be THE event of 2024. 2025 feels like a huge mistake with the amount of competition
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yeah 2025 seems so busy, but if the successor is getting a lot or all of those big games....it could work really well. I doubt GTA 6 is a switch successor game at launch(for GTA6), but if it is....that's a big deal. GTA 6 would compliment the successor so well.
 
pelusilla6 said:
So it can be slipped even if hardware roadmap is planned years ago :unsure:

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"Switch worked because they were able to go into its first Christmas with a full slate of games - one released every month that year. I can understand if they would want to replicate it"

They would be silly for trying to go with this again. It'd be near impossible especially when you keep in mind that Switch's launch period was heavily reliant on Wii U titles like Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, stuff they're not going to be able to rely on this time around.

I'm not trying to huff copium, but if they launched it this holiday alongside a new Mario platformer or Pokémon remakes, that alone would get it to sell.
 
Hocot8 said:
because it's the first release period given by 3rd party devs for the switch successor. It does say, while we don't need that confirmation, that the successor will be here no later than Q1 of next year. That's "news."

It also is telling that those devs either don't know or won't say the release period for the switch successor. Just when their games are planned for.
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In fairness, unless we know which developers they are this shouldn't mean too much. These could be developers that received Switch 2 dev kits later, made it a Switch 2 port a lesser priority, had their game delayed internally to 2025, etc.
 
Man I saw Pyoro's tweets and was going to check this thread thinking people had stuff to look forward to...

...only to see that other potential news about Switch being delayed to 2025 is making people worried again. Just put me into a coma until March so we can get this shit over with. Negative news of all kinds ranging from dumb game and tech shit to legitimate awful news is not what I need.
 
SirArthur said:
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This is getting a bit ridiculous to me now. They're making so many weird decisions. (I'm honestly a bit relieved that Nintendo is acting this strange. Makes me not feel as crazy for getting frustrated at them breaking the Amiibo restock trend in regions outside of the US, UK, AUZ, and Japan.)

Why would they do a Partner Showcase next week and a reveal in March... only to not launch it within the calendar year?? Even if TTYD and LM2HD get their own trailers with dates... why not just make a General Direct?? Right now, they literally have nothing past Peach that they're releasing. I think this is most likely definitely just "chatter", which could also be mostly speculation and not an actual decision they're making to push it to the end of the FY. I don't see why they would bother doing that.

Though, to give the rumor credit, I honestly think the Pokemon Presents being before the new console reveal was a sign that things might be weird with the launch timing. If they released an underwhelming remake of whatever RIGHT next to brand-new hardware, I don't think that would have given people the best impression of the hardware. We could also see a new Legends game during the Pokemon Presents, which would probably be released in early 2025, assuming they follow a similar pattern to 2021 - 2022. If so, then a March date for new hardware makes sense.

I don't think a launch outside of CY 2024 makes sense overall, but I guess they've... no, actually, this has probably been the weirdest thing they've done if they do end up pushing it.
 
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Sorry, a bit of bad dark humor.
 
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Misremembered, it was as early as Q1 2023 not Q2 2023 that Nate was thinking the launch window would be "Holiday 2024 or even early 2025" with the reasoning being due to production timelines (though this could have been more informed speculation than insider info).



Point still stands though that when Nate was thinking late 2024 or early 2025 a lot of people were insisting Nate didn't know what he was talking about and most of those same people are now insisting they know better than the journalists who are getting evidence of new hardware not coming out until 2025.
 
RailWays said:
I was already off the H1 train with a March reveal tbh. 3 month marketing window seemed too short for a next-gen console.

Very skeptical about the 2025 report though
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It was always willfully optimistic, but I’m generally happy to hop on the pipe dream train, and it at least didn’t seem impossible.

That said, yeah, I’m going to need firmer corroboration, either from someone who would know or from the developments of the next month, before I’m willing to place any amount of stock in the idea of a 2025 launch.
 
As long as Nintendo reveals this God forsaken device next month then I will be good because going another year with no word from them is going to be the absolute worst
 
if it does release in 2025 then it's not getting revealed in march but rather somewhere between october or december.
Also hard to believe it'd be something they just changed recently so either some wires got crossed communication wise or it was never meant to be 2024 from the beginning.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
This is unbelievably bad for "Mario finally wins a GotY in 2024!" plan, I have to say.

The path was clear for the next 3D Mario to win GotY. Its biggest competition was like... Penny's Big Breakaway and Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth? It was going to win!

Now, it probably has to compete against GTA6 and this is a whole lot harder now.
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Now the path is clear for that Woolly World port to snag GotY
 
YolkFolk said:
If Switch 2 did come in 2025, are we getting into the realms of it being considered ‘older’ tech?
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Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

The RAM is going to be outdated as soon as LPDDR6 releases and that should be pretty soon so that part will be outdated. The rest of the system?

For internal storage, if it's UFS 3.1 at 1 GB/s, that's pretty much fine, games don't need more than this.

As long as the CPU clocks are reasonable, the CPU should be fine. Outside of a couple games with huge NPC counts, modern game engines barely tax CPUs.

The GPU is a much bigger question, but the "leap" from TSMC 5nm to 3nm is almost nothing.

So kind of, but not really.

The bigger issue will be that in 2028, the PS6 and Xbox 5 will jump from 400-600 MBs/ms to 1.5-1.6 GBs/ms while the Switch 2 will likely still be at 100 MBs/ms AND the PS6 and Xbox 5 will likely have good enough ray tracing hardware to fully path trace everything.

So the later it launches to those two, the less runway it has in terms of not seeming dated.

But there's no real difference in level of "datedness" in terms of launching November 2024 vs. March 2025.
 
Xbox going third party?
Sony has disappointing financials and a lack of first party games?

Surely there are no negative Nintendo news coming up... right?
 
Ok, maybe 8 years of life for a console is long but nothing too out of the norm.
Switch would be able to survive well this year with:
DK 2D, StarFox, MP4, Pokémon 5th Gen remake, Zelda TP and WW HD and FZero GX HD
 
PokéPersona said:
In fairness, unless we know which developers they are this shouldn't mean too much. These could be developers that received Switch 2 dev kits later, made it a Switch 2 port a lesser priority, had their game delayed internally to 2025, etc.
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I mean I agree. I said this doesn't mean much. I'm just answering the question from a neutral position.

If this was from like square, koei tecmo or even sega I'd say this may be confirming a Q1 release. If I had to guess the 2 devs are western sources like Ubisoft.
 
YolkFolk said:
If Switch 2 did come in 2025, are we getting into the realms of it being considered ‘older’ tech?
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T239 does not exist in any product and we don't know its full capabilities. When it was first being designed in 2019-2020 by Nintendo / Nvidia they would have targeted a certain performance that would be acceptable years later. The Ampere architecture is technically four years old, but T239 has backported Ada features and may be manufactured on the same TSMC 4N as Ada GPUs. Unlike the Tegra X1, it's not an existing two-year old chip crammed into a hybrid console. It's a custom chip.

That and I don't think it matters that the architecture is technically four years old. It's the same one used in RTX 30 series, which are still acceptable for modern games. Especially with upscaling.

There is also no next-gen Tegra after Orin that I am aware of, Thor is slated for 2025 apparently. T239 would be a member of the most 'current' Tegra SoCs.
 
Hocot8 said:
I mean I agree. I said this doesn't mean much. I'm just answering the question from a neutral position.

If this was from like square, koei tecmo or even sega I'd say this may be confirming a Q1 release. If I had to guess the 2 devs are western sources like Ubisoft.
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Yeah, my bad. I misread your message when replying to it haha.
 
YolkFolk said:
If Switch 2 did come in 2025, are we getting into the realms of it being considered ‘older’ tech?
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In terms of consumer mobile Nvidia tech, not really.
In terms of in general? It's already considered "outdated" You literally can not avoid this when designing a console around a mobile chipset.
 
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