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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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BrakeBr said:
If anyone wants to know what he says in the podcast, I just listened and am fluent in the language.

He basically says that according to some of his sources the Switch 2 launch is now going to happen in the first 3 months of 2025. Some of his sources even said that the "launch was delayed" and it is Nintendo's main priority to still launch the hardware within the next fiscal year (basically, before April 2025).
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That would suck, does this guy have a track record?
 
omniryu said:
So Xbox plans on making the biggest leap in hardware. How can they pull that off? If it isn't cloud then what could it be?
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This could be just word games (eg, a 2.1x leap would be a bigger TFLOP leap than any previous leap but would be a much smaller relative leap as previous consoles were 6-8x stronger). If not, it will be hard to pull off. 7nm to 2nm is a minuscule leap.

If AMD can match the RT and tensor cores by 2028 and Microsoft can match DLSS 3.5 by 2028, combining that with a minor hardware leap would provide a very substantial graphical leap though and all of that seems reasonable.
 
That Brazilian tweet doesn't seem too trustworthy imo.
Just look at the first comment which seems to be someone putting him on the spot.

BTW why are we so certain that Switch electric boogaloo won't use an NVME instead of UFS etc? I've read about the whole energy consumption thing but is it really that much of a significant increase in power consumption when a lot of other similar handheld devices seem to use it without issue?
 
Jake said:
IDK but I don’t think we should trust what they say unless they mean FY 2025, which is this year
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We shouldn't trust anything anyone says with 100% confidence. But this guy's pretty legit, roughly similar to Necro and Nate I think. And we know that that does not mean they will never be wrong about anything, but we should also not just put it aside just because it's a rather unpopular message.

It is difficult to rhyme this with a reveal on March unless it is a JPEG with the text "Switch 2 will release this FY", so that is a moment in time during which we can recalibrate what is and is not plausible, depending on what does and does not happen.

Edit: it should be considered that Brazil is citing another reporter it seems, so perhaps that weakens things a bit depending on how legit this reporter is and how much Brazil is placing his weight behind it. Edit 2: Or it is different still, I can't really tell...
 
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Concernt said:
It was in leaked slides that it is cloud dependent, yes. Honestly I don't think it's that impossible an ask.
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😬 I see so that make sense on why they are doing both a console and handheld.
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
If AMD can match the RT and tensor cores by 2028 and Microsoft can match DLSS 3.5 by 2028, combining that with a minor hardware leap would provide a very substantial graphical leap though and all of that seems reasonable.
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I think that is something AMD would be working on, right?
Hermii said:
Corporations always say this.

Sony said the same about the ps5. It sure isn't to me.
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Sony also concerns me. Why are they considering a handheld when they barely have games on their platform?
 
VagrantValmar said:
That Brazilian tweet doesn't seem too trustworthy imo.
Just look at the first comment which seems to be someone putting him on the spot.

BTW why are we so certain that Switch electric boogaloo won't use an NVME instead of UFS etc? I've read about the whole energy consumption thing but is it really that much of a significant increase in power consumption when a lot of other similar handheld devices seem to use it without issue?
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UFS has high speed that would be satisfying for a handheld. Also, I think it is cheaper.
 
VagrantValmar said:
That Brazilian tweet doesn't seem too trustworthy imo.
Just look at the first comment which seems to be someone putting him on the spot.

BTW why are we so certain that Switch electric boogaloo won't use an NVME instead of UFS etc? I've read about the whole energy consumption thing but is it really that much of a significant increase in power consumption when a lot of other similar handheld devices seem to use it without issue?
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On NVME, it's not really about power consumption or formfactor, iPhone uses it, but UFS has acceptable performance at extraordinary scale and reasonable prices.
 
IMG-2635.jpg

No end in sight
 
Id buy an Xbox or Sony handheld if it were smaller, like Vita sized. I have a portable collection and that's a niche I don't own. Would it make some games uncomfortable? Absolutely. Is it unrealistic to expect since their handhelds would most likely be x86? Yup. But I would still like a tiny sleek thing that's closer to a cell phone than a tablet. The Switch Lite is close, but still bigger than a Vita.
 
HockeyBird said:
Nintendo was prepping a 2024 release but then Sony and Microsoft showed off their lineup for the year and said "Nah, we good for now".
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But that's precisely when you should attack...the others look incredibly weak. I just don't buy this because it would effectively nuke their holiday sales.
 
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Zedark said:
Edit: it should be considered that Brazil is citing another reporter it seems, so perhaps that weakens things a bit depending on how legit this reporter is and how much Brazil is placing his weight behind it. Edit 2: Or it is different still, I can't really tell...
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Was the reporter mentioned by name?
 
VagrantValmar said:
That Brazilian tweet doesn't seem too trustworthy imo.
Just look at the first comment which seems to be someone putting him on the spot.

BTW why are we so certain that Switch electric boogaloo won't use an NVME instead of UFS etc? I've read about the whole energy consumption thing but is it really that much of a significant increase in power consumption when a lot of other similar handheld devices seem to use it without issue?
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What does the first comment says? For those who don't have an x account
 
VagrantValmar said:
That Brazilian tweet doesn't seem too trustworthy imo.
Just look at the first comment which seems to be someone putting him on the spot.

BTW why are we so certain that Switch electric boogaloo won't use an NVME instead of UFS etc? I've read about the whole energy consumption thing but is it really that much of a significant increase in power consumption when a lot of other similar handheld devices seem to use it without issue?
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Those other devices tend to lower the speed to reduce the power consumption. UFS is also smaller and cheaper. There isn’t really a reason to go with nvme over ufs outside of replaceability.
 
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LuckyLuke said:
I don't understand the point of the incoming patner if the new console comes out in 2025. Without considering the absence of big games in 2024.
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Yeah, I'm having troubles trying to fit the pieces together (something I know I do too much of sometimes). We don't know what the rest of 2024 is going to look like beyond Princess Peach Showtime and a bunch of remakes & remasters, which will not be enough to carry 2024.

And now they're coming out with a partner showcase?

If 2025 truly is the plan for Switch 2 release, I'd be very interested to see what the new fiscal plan is when Nintendo discusses it at their first FY2025 meeting, which is May 2024.

"Please understand..."
 
The thing with the Switch delay from Holiday 2016 to March 2017 is that they were in a rush. Nintendo teams had just published its games two or three years before in the Wii U, and having a catalogue for the first year of the system was hard.

With Switch 2, they've had more than 7 years to prepare themselves while sitting in a pile of money. 3D Mario team has not released anything significant since 2017, Mario Kart team has been developing the next entry for who knows how much time, Retro Studios should have Metroid Prime 4 done soon, NDCube hasn't launched a Mario Party since 2021...I don't know, Nintendo development teams and partners have had all the time and the resources to prepare. If they really can't manage to reach the Holiday 2024 date, then they've made some cuestionable management. Switch delay is the exception, not the norm.
 
Serif said:
Id buy an Xbox or Sony handheld if it were smaller, like Vita sized. I have a portable collection and that's a niche I don't own. Would it make some games uncomfortable? Absolutely. Is it unrealistic to expect since their handhelds would most likely be x86? Yup. But I would still like a tiny sleek thing that's closer to a cell phone than a tablet. The Switch Lite is close, but still bigger than a Vita.
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Just give up traditional consoles and focus on a hybrid and sure, I will get it. I don't see Sony benefitting from a traditional dedicated handheld. Xbox a bit more than Sony. But the real money is in new content and if games are taking 5 to 6 years minimum.... then how can they manage two separate consoles?
 
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HockeyBird said:
If it's in 2025, then I don't see the point in revealing it in March.
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Thing is they are not alone on this boat : partners needs to communicate about this too. The sooner the cat is out of the bag, the sooner they can explain on their financial forecast that they invest the next Nintendo Console.

Also, would be a whole lot easier to employ people for specific projets.

SimplyCinnamon said:
Why would they show it off at Gamescom a full year and a half before release??
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Actually, no one ever reported they showed the switch 2 : they reported they show what it can do. But as far as I know, the actual device wasn't showed -- the devkit can be a litteral Software DEvellopment Kit, a technical frame; but not the actual device. And as far as I can tell, it can be for selected partners to receive devkit as early as 2 years before a release, so....

Whatever happens, we have to factor in that, even for Nintendo, games takes more and more times to devellop.

I'm team 2024, actually I was even team 2023. But I've also heard someone I value saying that he also thinks more and more 2025 as a likely target, and darn I need reassurance ^^
 
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darthdiablo said:
Yeah, I'm having troubles trying to fit the pieces together (something I know I do too much of sometimes). We don't know what the rest of 2024 is going to look like beyond Princess Peach Showtime and a bunch of remakes & remasters, which will not be enough to carry 2024.

And now they're coming out with a partner showcase?

If 2025 truly is the plan for Switch 2 release, I'd be very interested to see what the new fiscal plan is when Nintendo discusses it at their first FY2025 meeting, which is May 2024.

"Please understand..."
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yakuza-ichiban.gif
 
"Switching" from a Partner Showcase to a General Direct or Direct Mini would've been "easy" enough in case Nintendo would've already decided for a delay some time ago.

And given we all know that at a certain point of time it's not easy to delay such things, i doubt this would be a "spontaneous" and recent decision.
 
If they truly wait until March of 2025 it’s going to be such a blunder. It felt like they were timing everything perfectly to match the declining sales numbers.

I’m calling bullshit, just seems like this guy is trying to get attention by creating a narrative to get everyone nervous.

If it’s fiscal year 2025 then that makes sense but a reveal in March and not being released for an entire year??? Seems fishy to me.

I’d love to get @Shareholder Chad opinion on this, I feel like if he truly knows some things he can shoot this down.
 
I think FY2025 is still the plan. That said, we've all seen rumblings that Nintendo's worried about all the layoffs across the industry. One of the reasons the Wii U was such a flop was the lack of big first AND third party releases. If Switch 2 is pushed back, it won't be a hardware issue -- it'll be making sure software is lined up.

Bamco just released earning info that they've cancelled 5 previously-unannounced games that were in production, and Nintendo's leaned hard on Bamco during the Switch.

That said I do still think we'll see a launch in calendar year 2024.
 
For all that is holy I hope the 2025 rumor is wrong. Not because I want this to come out sooner rather than later, but I worry about the state of this thread if we have to wait another year for it.
 
omniryu said:
UFS has high speed that would be satisfying for a handheld. Also, I think it is cheaper.
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I'm guessing it's UFS, unless they're doing a NVMe in BGA package, but I think it is. I think it could be UFS 2.1, but possibly higher. The power draw is tied to the speed at which the storage is read or written to in a lot of ways, and I think that 2.1 is still out there. I don't know that Nintendo would be convinced that they need to support more that 1200 MB/s.

I see three options at this point for expandable storage. My favorite is m.2 NVMe in a 2230 package. I don't know that they'd see that as user friendly though.

Another is CFExpress Type A or B. They could basically bootstrap that to 100mm potential users from it's current market of high end camera owners and people that are trying to buy extra storage for the series S or X on the cheap (this still pisses me off that MS didn't just use straight CFE Type B). Type B is 2 lanes of PCIe 3.0 and should be up to 1700 MB/s. Plenty faster than UFS. Cool people can just pick the right 2230 M.2 and put it in a Type B case.

Last is MicroSD. I honestly think this is a possibility, and not necessarily a terrible one. It does mean that games have to support storage that's only 90 MB/s. This hasn't seemed to have hurt the Steam Deck though.
 
HockeyBird said:
Nintendo was prepping a 2024 release but then Sony and Microsoft showed off their lineup for the year and said "Nah, we good for now".
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MS has Hellblade 2, Indiana Jones, Avowed, Ara slated for this year. if I wasn't confident about Nintendo releasing Switch 2 this year MS should be a lock for publisher of the year like in 2021 dunno why they would be grouped with Sony who has nothing this year
 
TamazonX said:
I think FY2025 is still the plan. That said, we've all seen rumblings that Nintendo's worried about all the layoffs across the industry. One of the reasons the Wii U was such a flop was the lack of big first AND third party releases. If Switch 2 is pushed back, it won't be a hardware issue -- it'll be making sure software is lined up.

Bamco just released earning info that they've cancelled 5 previously-unannounced games that were in production, and Nintendo's leaned hard on Bamco during the Switch.

That said I do still think we'll see a launch in calendar year 2024.
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There are enough teams at Nintendo who had well enough time to prepare a new game, and we're talking about multiple years at this point.

If software isn't ready, i think questions about what those teams did ever since the release of their last game are in order.
Sure, it won't launch with a new mainline Zelda. It won't launch with a new 2D Mario.

But a 3D Mario? How long has it been since Odyssey?
 
Concernt said:
On NVME, it's not really about power consumption or formfactor, iPhone uses it, but UFS has acceptable performance at extraordinary scale and reasonable prices.
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My understanding is that NVMe is fine, and the difference on power draw is that it's often capable of higher speeds. The interface may be slightly less power efficient, but it's really the speed at which the storage is read that accounts for the power usage.
 
omniryu said:
Sony also concerns me. Why are they considering a handheld when they barely have games on their platform?
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My only assumption would be because of Nintendo’s success globally, but more specifically in Japan where Switch software held every position in the year-end Top 10 and in its 7th year sold 1.5 million more consoles in the country than PS5.

But yeah, they stated they don’t have a single big first party developed game releasing on their console this year when this should be the period of the console’s life where it’s firing on all cylinders. So I’d think if they are thinking handhelds, they’d have to take some sort of hybrid route (be it either like Nintendo or a standalone version of the Portal that can still play the same games as their home console.)
 
CeramicPigeon said:
For all that is holy I hope the 2025 rumor is wrong. Not because I want this to come out sooner rather than later, but I worry about the state of this thread if we have to wait another year for it.
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If Nintendo waits til 2025, they’re just asking for the Switch to crash and burn like what happened with the Wii by 2011-2012. They will have learned nothing and will only have themselves to blame if Switch 2 fails due to it coming out too late.
 
This seems very weird. If they weren't going to launch the console this year, then when Furukawa was asked about the console he would have just said something like "we have no plans for hardware this year". Not to mention all the shipping info, Sharp's shipment promises, etc. If this thing got pushed back this late, it would kill their entire Holiday season if the H2 crew is right. If H1 crew was right then it would kill most of their year's release schedule...

To me this sounds like:
  1. Nintendo is cracking down hard and has circulated fake dates internally to shut down leaks
  2. People were told FY 2025 and misinterpreted that
  3. Nintendo's entire year has been destroyed last minute (I don't find this very likely)
 
Bonejack said:
There are enough teams at Nintendo who had well enough time to prepare a new game, and we're talking about multiple years at this point.

If software isn't ready, i think questions about what those teams did ever since the release of their last game are in order.
Sure, it won't launch with a new mainline Zelda. It won't launch with a new 2D Mario.

But a 3D Mario? How long has it been since Odyssey?
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This October will be 7 years since Odyssey. They have to have something by now. Only GTA 6 has been in development for as long as the next 3D Mario.
 
nitroplum said:
This seems very weird. If they weren't going to launch the console this year, then when Furukawa was asked about the console he would have just said something like "we have no plans for hardware this year". Not to mention all the shipping info, Sharp's shipment promises, etc. If this thing got pushed back this late, it would kill their entire Holiday season if the H2 crew is right. If H1 crew was right then it would kill most of their year's release schedule...

To me this sounds like:
  1. Nintendo is cracking down hard and has circulated fake dates internally to shut down leaks
  2. People were told FY 2025 and misinterpreted that
  3. Nintendo's entire year has been destroyed last minute (I don't find this very likely)
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I think they are creating false rumors more than we know, I wouldn’t be surprised if they have an entire team that is doing this.

Nintendo is so secretive and weird about their technology it could be very likely.
 
omniryu said:
I think that is a must.
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I think there's a strong likelihood that it's the way it goes. I don't think it's necessary. M.2 is probably not going to happen for it's lack of perceived userfriendlyness. I think CFExpress is still a possibility though. I think there are probably companies that would love it to be a real thing past high end cameras.
 
DDark said:
My only assumption would be because of Nintendo’s success globally, but more specifically in Japan where Switch software held every position in the year-end Top 10 and in its 7th year sold 1.5 million more consoles in the country than PS5.

But yeah, they stated they don’t have a single big first party developed game releasing on their console this year when this should be the period of the console’s life where it’s firing on all cylinders. So I’d think if they are thinking handhelds, they’d have to take some sort of hybrid route (be it either like Nintendo or a standalone version of the Portal that can still play the same games as their home console.)
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Yeah, but they would need Nintendo games for that to happen. Sony lost Japan. They need stop holding the main FF hostage and just focus on bringing their games out.

A hybrid would solve the lack of game issue and would give Nintendo a challenge. The big win for us, is it further stray from cloud gaming.


Wait... back to Xbox... didn't they try a cloud-local mixture game with Crackdown 3? It didn't work so they went change the gane drastically?
 
HockeyBird said:
Nintendo was prepping a 2024 release but then Sony and Microsoft showed off their lineup for the year and said "Nah, we good for now".
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Seems like opposite would be true, that a pretty weak year for Sony/Microsoft would allow Nintendo to suck up a lot of people's available entertainment dollars this year (so to speak).
 
Bonejack said:
There are enough teams at Nintendo who had well enough time to prepare a new game, and we're talking about multiple years at this point.

If software isn't ready, i think questions about what those teams did ever since the release of their last game are in order.
Sure, it won't launch with a new mainline Zelda. It won't launch with a new 2D Mario.

But a 3D Mario? How long has it been since Odyssey?
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There's a reason I said first and third party. Do I think Nintendo would have games ready at launch? Of course I do. Do I know if they'll be able to keep that momentum up for the first, let's say, 2 years in light of all the layoffs across 2023 and so far in 2024? That's where I get anxious.
 
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