I agree with that. I don’t really believe in the theory that Nintendo is panicking after deciding to postpone the switch 2. As you say very well, it’s not at all like them not to have an alternative solution to deal with all eventualities.
That’s why I find it exciting to try to guess what they’re going to do. With Nintendo it’s all about allocating resources.
There are certainly games that are not ready yet, there are certainly games that must be exclusives to push the next console.
Apart from that, what will be absolutely exciting to follow in the coming weeks is to see how Nintendo will manage what it has in stock. We all have in mind about fifteen titles candidates for ports or remasters.
But it is a resource that will be useful throughout the lifecycle of switch 2 as the Wii U ports have been useful throughout the lifecycle of switch 1. That’s why I personally think that for the second half of 2024 we will have a mix between titles that In any case also had to come out on switch 1 whatever happens and ports. But neither only one nor only the other.
Yeah, that's exactly where I'm at!!
I think Switch 2 will do great with what it'll have next year(specially after the delay), so H2 this year can have a mix of stuff that wouldn't push hardware, with stuff that will sell greatly throughout the next console life even if released before it and stuff that's niche and would sell on a big install base but be burned on a year with a handful of blockbusters(like 2025 is looking to be with Pokémon Legends and almost surely Mario and Mario Kart).
These two games could’ve been set in stone before the Switch 2 delay. I honestly don’t think Nintendo would care a lot about having a nearly empty H2. It doesn’t make a big difference imo.
I don't think that's the case when we just basically saw Xenoblade Chronicles 3 and Splatoon 3 swapping months in 2022.
Also, in 2020, Nintendo released Pikmin 3 DX as its October game, and that was supposed to have come in the spring per insiders.
I don't think they'd just release 3 undated games in 2 months(with one of them unannounced) if they felt like they'd have nothing for fall.
This right here, they won’t really start marketing the console until near the end of the year anyway, so why try splitting the audience’s attention between a stellar lineup and what comes next?
Genuinely, I believe Prime 4 is the only realistic H2 game we can expect that isn’t an easy port or remake.
I don't think it works like that specially when in 2016 they released a megaton for 3DS in Pokémon Sun and Moon and basically waited until the last minute to reveal the Switch.
Nintendo sells best on holiday months and not having stuff to sell in the last quarter of the year is something they definitely wouldn't do. They won't just think they'll get everything back next year and kill the last holiday season of their best selling console when they absolutely don't need to.
Metroid Prime 4 can be heavily marketed as the holiday title, just like Dread was, but that year also had Pokémon remakes and Mario Party. I think we see Donkey Kong or Mario Party this year as well.
From November 4th 2023 to July 1st 2024, they released/have scheduled 2-3 original games (Princess Peach, Endless Ocean, and Side Order) and released/have scheduled 5 remakes (SMRPG, Another Code, Mario vs. DK, TTYD, Luigi's Mansion 2) so it has been pretty remake heavy for a minute here, lol.
We can say the same thing about January 2018 until August 2018 when they released Bayonetta 1+2, Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors Definitive Edition and Captain Toad Treasure Tracker as ports and only Kirby Star Allies, Labo and Mario Tennis as new games.
January-July 2021 was super port heavy too with that period being carried by 3D World + Bowser's Fury and Skyward Sword HD.
But the second half and holiday months of those years were absolutely stacked.
The only thing I question about this, and I don't question it very much, is that if the 2witch delay is real then that means the sizable releases being prepped for H2 2024 were sizable 2witch games. So if we aren't getting those, then.. what is gonna pop up in that slot? Some of those oft-mentioned sat-on games that Nintendo has completed and are just waiting to release? That's all I can think of. Unless there were already gonna be some Switch games hitting this holiday alongside the 2witch and its games, which sounds.. I mean, possible, but they wouldn't be sizable.
I believe that before the delay they were expecting to release the console with 3D Mario as an exclusive (September maybe?) and a new IP(maybe Monolith Soft? December?) and heavily rely on cross gen stuff until Mario Kart by next spring (6 months later). I do wonder if Fire Emblem 4 Remake and DK were expected to come to Switch only this summer and receive patches later, but afterwards got positioned as August-December releases. The other way around could also have happened, like them planning to sit on DK until early next year(because the holidays would already be packed with 3D Mario, new IP(exclusives), Metroid Prime 4 and Mario Party (cross gen).
They were expecting to release both hardware and a megaton(3D Mario) in the fall, but that isn't happening anymore, so to not pass the holidays without big software sales, they'll delay stuff that would come in the summer, maintain stuff that was meant for fall(Mario Party? Metroid Prime 4?) and possibly push forward stuff that would be cross gen anyways but come next year because the fall would be packed before the delay(Donkey Kong? Metroid Prime 4? 2D Zelda?).
I will once again recall how amazing September-November of 2019 and 2022 were, despite the biggest games coming in that timeframe being delayed(Animal Crossing New Horizons and Tears of the Kingdom).
the Zelda HAGIs will sell more than Donkey Kong would've anyway
Why make Zelda HAGI ports when they have remasters on Wii U already tho
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But... I gotta say that DKCTF sold more than SSHD on Switch... And I believe a brand new DK game can sell in the same range as Returns Wii+3DS or the first game(~10m) so pretty much better than the best Zelda ever sold before BotW.
Pokemon being 2025 makes me inclines to believe that Metroid Prime 4 is the big game this year.
If Nintendo saves Pokemon and 3D Mario as Switch 2 launch titles, that is an insanely powerful and smart move.
However, if Metroid Prime 4 is also a launch title, exclusive or not, then Nintendo just shot Prime 4’s sales in the foot.
Prime 4, imo, needs to be the uncontested focus whenever it launches. Sure there can be other games coming out around the same time, but they should be stuff like Fire Emblem or Mario Party. Not 3D Mario and Pokemon.
Yeah, I'm kinda split on that. I often think that being cross gen would benefit the game, and that maybe coming on the last holiday of a console with another one coming shortly after can harm it, BUT, I don't think that releasing in spring 2025 between 3D Mario and Mario Kart can help it in any way.
Both Fire Emblem and especially Mario Party would probably outsell Prime 4
Mario Party definitely, but the Fire Emblem we're talking about is a 4 remake, and so far only Three Houses(which sold exceptionally well, 4m+) and Fates sold more than Prime(OG) and Dread. It's a more consistent seller because it has more regular releases tho, which is a big plus.
But Engage sold pretty much in line with Prime Remastered, tho we have to see where both ended. I think holiday spot and heavy marketing can make Prime 4 a 4m seller, just like it made Dread a 3m seller.
As a huge Metroid fan I will be VERY surprised if a Metroid game ever breaks 5 million, and both Mario Party games on Switch have sold over 12 million. Mario Party is not the series you want it to go up against.
But Metroid isn't really running against Mario Party, the releases are complementary, each appeal to a different demographic. It worked pretty well in 2021 when they released Dread and Superstars on the same month.
3D Mario tho is very core gamer appealing, and Mario Kart is everyone appealing, so I don't think releasing near to those on a console launch when the install base is tiny is a good idea...
Metroid isn't as terrible of a seller as people think it is. It doesn't push Mario numbers but it also doesn't sell like 20 copies per entry. I think most franchises would be thrilled to have multiple games that sold at least a million units like Metroid does.
Also, contrary to popular belief, Nintendo is unlikely ever to just drop Metroid forever due to sales. The reason entries are infrequent is because either technology or the lack of dedicated teams held them back over the years.
That said, if Metroid Prime 4 has a holiday release slot this year, the series will probably have its best shot at sales ever.
Yeah, I think holiday 2024 is the absolute best time to release it, UNLESS Switch active base craters which is definitely not what the last FY sales, software sales and more tell us. There was a lot of the same feeling back in 2022 and early 2023, people were thinking that Switch by holiday 2023 would be like Wii in 2012, Wii U in 2017 or something. But last year it was still looking like peak on software sales of TotK and Wonder, and hardware sales nowhere near anything really on its 7th year. At the very very worst we're getting to 3DS 2016 or PS3 2013 or PS4 2020 in terms of potential of software sales, so a very good term since best sellers from those consoles came out shortly before their successors.
I'm not saying that MP4 can be compared to TLOU and Pokémon and where releasing mere months before the successor is gonna make it the best selling game on the platform tho, but I believe Nintendo will be more careful, I mean, they only revealed Switch late October 2016 and I believe it's probably because they were worried about 3DS holiday sales.
