Never underestimate a kid from JerseyHow the hell did you all start speculating Fighter Pass 3 during the one day in between the announcement and airing of a Mario Wonder Direct
Seconding nomination for Post of the Year awards. Paraspikey coming in hot outta nowhere to bless our community with his presence and we are immediately richer with speculation for it.This forum doesn’t do Post of the Year awards but if we did I’d nominate this. Great work
Fighters Pass 3 LET’S GOOOOOOOO
You've long since sold me on Yakuza as soon as it comes to Switch. We'll be delulu together; Kiryu is coming to Smash, by golly!oh my god you know they’re gonna announce Yakuza 0 and Kiwami are coming to Switch
And that announcement is gonna conclude with Kiryu getting an invite to Smash and THAT’S how they reveal Fighter Pass 3
oh my god
fam I’ll cry if that happens
let me get my hopes up lol
They did say Sora was the final fighter for Ultimate, though they did a very similar thing with Splatoon 2. In July 2019, they hosted the "final Splatfest," and they made a whole video about them ending support since they were working on Splatoon 3.Understandable, we all have a Smash addiction, remember when people immediately jumped on Smash Switch a mere 6 months after 4's DLC concluded? Of we couldn't last 2 years after they released the final fighter without speculating that there's actually 6 more lmaoooo
I think they're going to save Wii Rainbow Road until the release trailer. I'm betting on Piranha Plant Cove and Piranha Plant Pipeline being shown off with some joke about the names.of course, they are going to be a September direct, When Wii Rainbow Road gets announced it must have the most eyes possible on it
I think about the Nintendo NY store reaction to the Metroid Prime 4 reveal, where voices throughout the crowd said "Smash?" at the Nintendo Switch logo, when there was literally no reason whatsoever to believe it would be Smash.Understandable, we all have a Smash addiction, remember when people immediately jumped on Smash Switch a mere 6 months after 4's DLC concluded? Of we couldn't last 2 years after they released the final fighter without speculating that there's actually 6 more lmaoooo
Peach SMW Transformation has leaked.
Peach SMW Transformation has leaked.
If I created a spectrum of Smash news it would run:I refuse to believe we're getting a Fighters Pass 3. There has to be some other reason, like the Fighters Pass coming to NSO + Expansion Pack.
Peach SMW Transformation has leaked.
this post is making me vibrate intenselyHello! I'm not super sure where this belongs, though since this relates to Nintendo Directs and announcements/releases happening in the near future, I thought this would fit here.
Since late July, I've been looking into Amiibo, Amiibo restocks, and the connections they have to their announcements and reveals, and I wanted to present what I've found so far and what it has related to so I can get some possible feedback on my research (I've mostly been researching this in more closed off Discord communities, so I've been trying to reach out to others without a general bias to see if they think this has much ground).
This is going to be a bit long, though there is a lot to say on the matter. I'll provide a TLDR at the end.
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- On July 25th, there was a massive Greece retailer who listed a bunch of Amiibo restocks happening.
(Source)
The first 2 waves relate to Smash Brothers, the first wave being on August 28th, and the second wave being on November 10th, Rosalina and Boo (SMB Line) were restocked on August 28th, and Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser, Samus (Metroid Line), Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link I don't have exact dates for, so I'd assume "Fall - Holiday 2023."
This stood out to me. In 2020, there was a Polish Amiibo leak that happened, and all of those restocks pointed to Nintendo announcements being made from May 2020 - February 2021.
These included...
SMB Mario: Restocked in September 2020 (SMB 35th Anniversary)
The Zelda Line: Restocked in September 2020 (Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity's announcement)
The Splatoon Line: Restocked in June 2020 and in February 2021 (Splatoon 2 Support coming back, Splatoon 3's announcement)
Cloud and Cloud P2: Restocked in late September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
Ryu: Restocked in early September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
The Pokemon Smash Line: Restocked in late November 2020 (Sephiroth's Smash reveal)
After remembering this, since the Smash line was getting restocked, I decided to look into the Amiibo restocks I could and see what I connected to, and after digging, I realized that I've looked through most, if not all, of the restocks that has happened since the Switch era, and ALL of them has connected to software announcements and releases.
I wrote a document with all of the restocks I could find.
(When the restocks happen late in the month, when the announcement happens early the next month, I just put "1 month [X]" to make it simpler.)
(The last 2 Animal Crossing ones could also just be them selling off pre-existing stock since I found those on reddit, though both posts were in early April.)
(Some of these are also rough estimates due to the exact date being unavailable and the article only referring to it happening on a specific month.)
After looking at reputable Aliexpress retailer "ArtSwift"'s account, there's a lot more than this that has connected, like Smash restocks being before Sora's reveal and before his release, alongside the Metroid Smash line being restocked alongside Metroid Dread's release.
I think I looked as much as I did due to being in part disbelief that Smash news could be happening soon due to the restocks. But I couldn't find one that wasn't related to an announcement, release, or big push for that specific brand (Mar10 day, which had a Switch Bundle of "Pick 1 out of 3 Mario games" and Bowser with the Mario Movie)
Long story short, all of the Amiibo restocks they've done are related to software announcements and releases related to the line they're restocking. It's a bit of a crazy pattern.
This means all of the restocks they're doing should also connect to stuff.
So, in this same document, I wrote down what can be concluded about the restocks, New Amiibo in general, and what the restocks could be related to.
At first thought, I assumed the Smash restocks needed to be for Nintendo Live, but on their FAQ page, they specifically say that there will be no new product announcements at the event. (Source)
Then I thought Nintendo would announce them on August 28th since that's the date they go on sale. They would have to announce them then to make sure the demand for the Amiibo is there, much like how they announced the Skyward Sword Link restock on June 20th, since that didn't directly connect to a new announcement (though it did connect to TOTK's release) (Source)
But they didn't do that. This follows the pattern of what they normally do to prep up an announcement/release to silent stock stores so there is enough Amiibo stock demand for people who are interested in using them for new software.
These restocks also aren't happening in the Americas, and they have brand new packaging, which specifically excludes the American and Canadian websites. (Source)
This is due to the fact NoA is the global center of marketing for Nintendo since it is Nintendo's biggest financial market. They hold off on having Amiibo restocked in the Americas, specifically when they want to tie it into something.
For 2 examples, they restocked Kirby's Amiibo in Japan a couple of weeks after Super Kirby Clash was announced/released, and they restocked Fire Emblem Amiibos in Australia on December 16th, the day they announced the Engage Expansion Pass at The Game Awards 2022.
(Fire Emblem Source) (Kirby Source)
Of course, despite researching this extensively, I wasn't convinced anything was happening until they didn't announce it yesterday, but today, they announced the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, which directly connects with the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks that happened on the 28th.
To me, this pretty much soft-confirms something Smash-related, software-wise, is going to happen. They've never done restocks specifically for Amiibo announcements, and speaking of which...
This is probably the strongest piece of evidence relating to something Smash Brothers happening in this direct, for 5 main reasons.
- On July 4th, Artswift, the Amiibo retailer I referred to earlier, said that they expect a Sora Amiibo announcement "in the near future."
(Source)
1. They've never announced new Amiibo on their own during the Switch generation, especially for a 5-year-old game. It has always been announced alongside or shortly after new content, announcement, or release. The only time they've announced an Amiibo unrelated to new content day and date were Marine and Pearl, which...
(This is a good source to find when they've announced a brand new Amiibo.)
- It was announced 2 days after the Splatoon 2 Concert that happened in February, which happened on a weekend, which means they couldn't of announced it
- The day after, we got the Splatoon 2 Starter Kit announced
- Not even a month later, we got the Octo Expansion announced on the March 8th Direct.
2. The Sora Amiibo wasn't announced in the Sora Sakurai presents. If they were planning on just revealing it 2 months after Pyra/Mythra's Amiibo release with nothing tied to it, why not announce it alongside everyone else?
3. The Sora Amiibo code isn't in the game, which means if they randomly announce it, they would have to go back into the game after 2 years and program the Amiibo AI and roll out the update, which isn't an easy task nor is something any company nor developer would willingly do. They updated the game to have Amiibo support from Min Min to Kazuya. If they weren't saving it for something, why not include it? It'll be a waste of resources on Nintendo to do it randomly. Sakurai said the team "disbanded" in October 2021, and they would have to come back together ONLY to patch the game with Sora Amiibo support, something very unlikely if they're not working on a new game, like how they were able to patch Sm4sh to add Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta Amiibo support in 2017 since they were working on Ultimate, which was after they were announced in the December 2015 Smash Presentation, due to them knowing they wouldn't have the chance to announce it sooner.
(Source on Smash Ultimate updates)
4. They've never done restocks for new Amiibo specifically. Sometimes, a release could align with a new Amiibo being announced, though there has never been a case where a game, after being dormant for years, gets a new Amiibo announced with nothing new tied to it.
5. Since Sora would have to have the Smash Ultimate branding, it is very unlikely for it to be announced alongside content for a game that isn't Ultimate.
- They restocked the Smash Gamecube controller in Japan. The last time they did this was in January 2020, 3 weeks before Fighters Pass 2's reveal.
- There is a lot more that points to something happening, though I would only like to point out a couple more things.
(Source for 2023 Restock) (Source for 2020 Restock)
-Smash Amiibo tend to be stocked, on average, 16 days from the restock to their reveal (Fatmanonice's research). 16 days from now would be September 13th, the probable date of the direct.
-The Smash Site updated, seemingly removing the Accessories page that was there (Internet Archive shows it was removed by December 2022 - April 2023)
(What the Smash site looks like since April 2023) (What the Smash site looked like before April 2023)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's DLC is ending in September with its last wave, much like how they announced it the earliest they could after Sora was announced. Nintendo needs to announce DLC with content waves like how they did with Smash and Mario Kart so they can put it on their NSO service.
- Restocks happen in waves ONLY with releases (TOTK, BOTW, Fire Emblem, and Kirby). This means the content the line is for has to be released at some point this year, which means it can't be for a new game or a "port" to a newer generation.
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This is about everything I wanted to share and have possible feedback on. Apologies for the long read, but there is so much here that points to more content for Ultimate being announced in the probable September direct. Even if we don't get anything Smash, it was fun looking into all of this, and at least we have something to use that could relate to new software.
- TLDR:
Amiibo restocks have historically 99% been related to upcoming Nintendo software announcements or releases. These restocks can not relate to Nintendo Live, and they weren't announced the day they went live, meaning they relate to future announcements and releases.
Here are the upcoming restocks and what they could relate to:
-August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [New Content Reveal?] (1 month before reveal?)
-November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content Release?] (Same month as release?)
-August 28th: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Mario Wonder Direct]
-Fall 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [Mario Wonder] (Could be same month?)
-Fall 2023: Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [TOTK DLC/Wind Waker and Twilight Princess] (Could be same month?)
-Fall 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal] (Could be same month/1 month after?) (Can't be Prime 2 and/or 3 since they don't have Amiibo Functionality)
Sora Amiibo being expected by retailers, the Gamecube controller restocks, and the Smash site updating removing the accessories tab makes me think it's more likely we'll get something Ultimate related than not, and if they want to sell a long-running DLC pass on NSO since MK8's DLC is about to end, a Fighter's Pass 3, and putting Fighter's Pass 1 and 2 on there would be perfect.
I bought that set for an... inflated price. If people can get it at reasonable cost again, that'd be great. I think Nintendo should be careful not to overproduce them though, like with the Metroid Dread amiibo. I still see plenty of those in stores, and it's been nearly two years since Dread's release.Just saw the amiibo post
Samus (Metroid Line). Samus Returns amiibo reprint? Am I fooling myself? Is hopium poisoning my mind?
I meant to clarify this in the big post, but the software that relates to the restocks is just speculation based on what is already rumored/likely to appear and Smash. I think it probably relates to Metroid Prime 4, though a Samus Returns port/remaster is completely possible, and it would make sense to do more 3DS remasters while they're transitioning to the next generation. Zelda Amiibo could also be for TOTK again because the game launched only a couple of months ago.Just saw the amiibo post
Samus (Metroid Line). Samus Returns amiibo reprint? Am I fooling myself? Is hopium poisoning my mind?
would totally be a Nintendo thing to port samus returns to switch but still force people to buy a amiibo for fusion modeJust saw the amiibo post
Samus (Metroid Line). Samus Returns amiibo reprint? Am I fooling myself? Is hopium poisoning my mind?
I bought that set for an... inflated price. If people can get it at a reasonable cost again, that'd be great. I think they should be careful not to overproduce them though, like with the Metroid Dread amiibo. I still see plenty of those at stores, and we're nearly two years out from the game's release.
You'll sit through mid first before you get 4 and you'll like it!Why are we talking about Samus returns port when Metroid Prime 4 is sitting right there? I’m just wondering lol
I made that post based on Capcom's presentation and forecasts from the most recent fiscal quarter, but just FYI I'm not really all that knowledgeable of those topics and I could have misunderstood some things, so don't take my words as gospel.600k PHYSICAL. Someone here in this thread made the calculation and only 600k physical sales left in Capcom's target.
600k physical is too low for both Playstation and Nintendo exclusive MH games. Both World and Rise opened with 1.3 physical copies...
And it's supposed to be for ALL of their physical sales.
Pessimistic/Realistic: Fighter Pass 1 & 2 join NSO Expansion Pack
to get every Metroid (mainline) game on switch before prime 4 Release?Why are we talking about Samus returns port when Metroid Prime 4 is sitting right there? I’m just wondering lol
Luigi's Mansion 2 is getting one next year, Rune Factory 4, Resident Evil Revelaitons 1&2, Hyrule Warriors (technically Wii U, but it had the 3DS bonus content on Switch iirc), Rune Factory 4, Sushi Striker: Way of Sushido, and far as I can tell mostly indies. A couple lists I'm looking at are including the Wii/Wii U ports to 3DS that eventually made their way to Switch so it's a little difficult to sus outHow many 3DS games in total have gotten Switch ports?
so it's a little difficult to sus out
Thanks! I'm honestly surprised there haven't been more! I'd really love a Samus Returns port, but I'd assume it's far from a priority for Nintendo right now, considering their clear and understandable focus on the Prime games at the moment.Luigi's Mansion 2 is getting one next year, Rune Factory 4, Resident Evil Revelaitons 1&2, Hyrule Warriors (technically Wii U, but it had the 3DS bonus content on Switch iirc), Rune Factory 4, Sushi Striker: Way of Sushido, and far as I can tell mostly indies. A couple lists I'm looking at are including the Wii/Wii U ports to 3DS that eventually made their way to Switch so it's a little difficult to sus out
Not that many.How many 3DS games in total have gotten Switch ports?
Yeah Nintendos focus is on Metroid Prime + I think people tend to believe we should be getting all the ports now. No, Nintendo will give you some now and save some for the Switch 2 and the end of its life.Thanks! I'm honestly surprised there haven't been more! I'd really love a Samus Returns port, but I'd assume it's far from a priority for Nintendo right now, considering their clear and understandable focus on the Prime games at the moment.
This is a very good point.I'm not entirely convinced on this being a thing that could happen. Too much of smash bros dlc is tied up in 3rd party characters, with only 3 of the 11 season pass characters actually belonging to Nintendo.
The DLC that's been put up there is stuff that belongs to Nintendo and they can keep in perpetuity with nobody else having a say, if they put the smash passes up, suddenly Sega/Atlus/Square/Disney/Namco/Microsoft/Mojang/SNK all have to be placated with their chunk of the sub every year
Thoughts on that Fashion Dreamer game coming up?Port all the Style Savvy 3DS games dang it.
TBH Fighters Pass 3 would be a solid closer. Nothing gets folks more hype than new Smash news hahawhat game could be the septembre 2023 closer? i leaning towards a 20/30 second teaser for Metroid Prime 4
There’s alot going on. It’s like a confluence of so many good Nintendo news all around.anyone else kinda getting hyped lately?
I wonder if they'd go as far as implementing Dread's QOL improvements in a potential Samus Returns port. Being able to do a running counter, things like that.Yeah Nintendos focus is on Metroid Prime + I think people tend to believe we should be getting all the ports now. No, Nintendo will give you some now and save some for the Switch 2 and the end of its life.
do a second Booster Course Pass and this will incentize a lot of people to have NSOI'm a big fan of the new Smash DLC theory, but regardless of whether the detailed amiibo research checks out, 2023 is very clearly a year in which Nintendo have had to gradually refresh the subscription offering and they may need to go further in the next few months:
- Base tier NSO drops have been increasingly sporadic, so GameBoy was added to provide easy NSO fodder for that tier.
- Pacman 99 closes on October 8th 2023. The game launched 6 days after Super Mario Bros 35 was shuttered, so we may well have a new 99 game or a new NSO-only game in mid-October.
- On the Expansion Pack front, Nintendo are running out of N64 games. Once this year's releases are complete, we'll have 29 titles on the service, with only Donkey Kong 64 and Super Smash Bros as 'easy' additions in the future (31 titles being a decent improvement over the ~20 titles on VC). Presumably, Nintendo have secured further licenses (Diddy Kong Racing?), but the addition of GBA earlier this year is obviously one way to mitigate having fewer N64 titles launching in future.
- Mario Kart 8 DLC comes to an end later this year, so Nintendo may want replacement content either this autumn or early next year
Now, on the last point, there's zero guarantee Nintendo find a 'replacement' offering (like Smash DLC), but look at the other examples above: they've added another system to the base tier after SNES and NES titles dried up; Pacman 99 was a 'replacement' for Super Mario Bros 35 back in 2021 and may be replaced itself this October; GBA has launched as N64 releases slowed down and became increasingly difficult to secure.
Nintendo also seem unwilling to include single-player DLC in the Expansion Pack offering, unless they've already made their money from it (Splatoon 2's DLC was added to the Expansion Pack, but Splatoon 3's DLC is only available as a stand-alone purchase for now). Even if a high profile title like Zelda gets DLC, we can assume Nintendo will want to make their money from it and position it as a stand-alone purchase outside the subscription. As @Paraspikey pointed out, Nintendo have the pre-existing DLC for Smash which they could potentially roll into the subscription alongside adding some new content. Additional content this autumn would mark 5 years since the game's original launch, as well as two years since previous DLC support wrapped up. Importantly, that means Nintendo have had a meaningful amount of time to sell the DLC and profit from it as a stand-alone purchase.
Fighter's Pass 3 would be the simplest, highest profile way of Nintendo going about this, but maybe we'll see something else. Extra returning stages would be neat, but I can't see that being a particularly big draw - certainly not the way extra fighters would be. Perhaps a mix of content - returning stages, more echo fighters, more bosses; personally I'd have loved a boss rush mode and a 'proper', reconfigured All-Stars Mode. Nintendo could also easily stop at the Easy Mode option of rolling the two Fighter Passes - and perhaps the Mii Fighter costumes - into the Expansion Pack without providing further DLC support.
Feels quite good to be a Nintendo fan lately!There’s alot going on. It’s like a confluence of so many good Nintendo news all around.
I haven’t played the game in 6 years so I don’t quite remember. I would like some QOL improvements now that we have a controller with more buttons. I think the map was on the bottom screen of the 3DS, which is something you’d lose.I wonder if they'd go as far as implementing Dread's QOL improvements in a potential Samus Returns port. Being able to do a running counter, things like that.
I've never actually owned a 3DS, instead having played SR on a 2DS a couple years back. Let me tell ya, those curved L and R buttons were of the same naff design philosophy as the DualShock 3's L2 and R2. The build quality of the unit as a whole was posh Tiger Electronics, roughly speaking. Def highly interested in a playthrough of the game with the comfy Switch Pro Controller and no touch screen antics.
Feels quite good to be a Nintendo fan lately!
Thoughts on that Fashion Dreamer game coming up?
New hardware is coming and sounds like it’s gonna be good.
Yes direct I'm a few weeks, hardware rumors ramping up and new smash speculation today its Hard not to get hype tbh.anyone else kinda getting hyped lately?
Smash speculation?Yes direct I'm a few weeks, hardware rumors ramping up and new smash speculation today its Hard not to get hype tbh.
you wanna know something?New hardware is coming and sounds like it’s gonna be good.
New software is coming and is quite exciting.
This year’s games so far have been some of Nintendo’s all time best, with Zelda and Pikmin being instant classics.
The only thing that doesn’t feel right is feeling so optimistic about Nintendo. It’s a new feeling.
Smash speculation?