StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST6| It’s Prime Time For Some More Wonderful Speculation! (Spoiler Crowd, Remain In This Thread Until The Direct Ends!)

[AngryAlchemist]

holy shit the original mr bones ban is only 1 month

: (

 

[LuckyNumber69]

Not a financial expert, but compare the amount of detail in every single area in Metroid dread/ Metroid prime remaster to 3 houses and engage

Three Houses is really ugly, I'll give you that (although that was due to being developed by Koei Tecmo), but Engage definitely has a lot of polish and detail. And Prime Remastered is, well... a remaster of a 20-year-old game, so I highly doubt it cost anywhere near as much as something like Engage, even though it looks really good.

Fair questions. As always, Lets go under the hood with... DATA.

2002 - MP - 3M
2004 - MP2 - 1.1M
2006 - Metroid Prime Hunters - 1M
2007 - MP3 - 1.4M
2010 - Metroid Other M - 1.36M
2017 - Metroid Samus Returns - 500K
2021 - Metroid Dread - 3M
---
2023 - Fire Emblem Engage - 1.6M
2019 - Fire Emblem 3 houses - 4.1M
2017 - Fire Emblem Echoes - 900K
2016 - Fire Emblem Fates - 3M
2013 - Fire Emblem Awakening - 2.4M
2007 - Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn - 500K

First off, I may be wrong here regarding Fire emblem. Its sales were higher than I remember. Ill have to adjust my opinion/Analysis. Second, Obviously we do not have the financial records of Nintendo (Even though as a shareholder I could ask) so we need to do some educated guessing. From the data, We see Fire Emblem have major releases more often than Metroid so one could reasonably assume development time is much shorter and therefore with the roughly higher avg sales, comes out on top if we consider profit per IP.



No, I think its fair to say they have comparable production value in terms of Cutscenes, Music, Graphics. Voice acting clearly is more used in Fire Emblem but Graphics have more emphasis in Metroid.

I simply don't agree that Metroid has comparable production values. I mean, Dread doesn't have particularly impressive graphics as is, and I would definitely say Engage looks better than it. Cutscenes aren't comparable either. Again, FE has tons of CG cutscenes with voice acting. And music? Definitely not. Engage (for example) has a much bigger soundtrack than any Metroid game, and its soundtrack also uses tons of live instrumentation, whereas Metroid soundtracks have never used any live instruments throughout the entire series.

(P.S. FE Echoes actually crossed 1M as of Dec. 2022)

I feel like showing in the September Direct already is the better way to start the hype for the game. Whether we get another trailer during The Geoffs or another trailer in February for a spring release is another question.

I mean it just says Nintendo would release it earlier if possible. But how much earlier? If they're now aiming to release the console in Q2, then sure.


Yeah, I think it might get a second trailer at the TGA but definitely won't be revealed there. Nintendo ain't gonna want to compete for the spotlight with like tens of AAA games being shown there. They'll want to announce in their own terms and have all the lights on the game.

FE has comparable sales to Metroid. Metroid with the exception of GCN and NES has never been comparable to Zelda in sales, not even close to it.

I think FE can cost way less than Metroid due to the development cycles being shorter and usually having smaller development teams. Sure, Three Houses and Engage got their costs raised with all the voice acting and stuff, but games like Metroid Prime 4 are in for 5 year+ development cycles while TH had 2.5. I think it's not a super bold prediction to say that Metroid Dread and Prime 4 probably did cost more to make than Engage and Three Houses.

I think it's an incredibly bold prediction to say Dread and Prime 4 cost more, actually.

First of all, if you take a look over at the credits of Dread and Engage at MobyGames, you'll see a massive difference in the number of people who worked on each game: https://www.mobygames.com/game/198202/fire-emblem-engage/credits/switch/?autoplatform=true - FE Engage, 830 people - https://www.mobygames.com/game/172841/metroid-dread/credits/switch/?autoplatform=true - Metroid Dread, 220 people.

Second of all, Dread is a 10 hour long 2d game with serviceable graphics compared to a huge 3d JRPG with tons of voice acting, cutscenes, high quality battle animations, high quality character models, dozens of characters that needed to be designed, massive soundtrack with tons of live instrumentation, better graphics, etc.

Third, we haven't even seen Prime 4 yet, so there's no way to say for certain what the budget looks like right now.

 

[Koren Lesthe]

Pyro just tweeted this image out:

Spoiler

I guess Young Caddicarus is joining Smash then.

 

[EvilChameleon]

The leaks have really killed the hypotheticals game so gang

What 3 things would you like in a September Direct?

Left 4 Dead 1+2 Ports
Side Order DLC Reveal
DC Ultimate Alliance

 

[chocolate_supra]

Joshua Weissman treats all fast food as a crime against humanity so I can't imagine he rates any of these above like a 3/10.

He does but so far I disagree with the ones he gave good scores to, and he gave basement scores to my favorites

 

[Shareholder Chad]

That's a problem because those guys literally make up their numbers

Lol It does have a reputation similar to the wall street journal in the states but I've found it to be much better. Especially granted to those who spend the money to subscribe. Then there are shareholder reports I receive from Nintendo themselves. I don't read every single one of them nor attend every meeting but between all things I get a good sense of whats going on. There are benefits to owning Nintendo Stock NOT from a "ADR" (NTDOY/NTDOF are ADR's) but rather on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Nikkei gives worldwide sales numbers?

They give way more than that. The public offerings are different. I don't care to comment much on them outside what I've said here because reasons.

 

[grobla123]

Less than 3 days until Waluigi's Taco stand becomes reality. I hope that DS point and click isn't the only remaster. Although I do hope the remasters pull on good games people haven't played already. Maybe like Wario Ware Shake it, or something. I just get that excited about remasters of like Prime 2 or something. Played them to death. I'm happy like a million or so other people will pick it up, so thats good for them. Modern online could be real nice for some of the old multiplayer games though.

 

[Ryuusagi no hoshi]

As a fellow Mexican I must say that the trick with Taco Bell is that you need to approach it as junk food and not mexican food

Maybe you are right, but man every time i see whatever they think birria or quesadilla meant or are i can't.

 

[Shareholder Chad]

Three Houses is really ugly, I'll give you that (although that was due to being developed by Koei Tecmo), but Engage definitely has a lot of polish and detail. And Prime Remastered is, well... a remaster of a 20-year-old game, so I highly doubt it cost anywhere near as much as something like Engage, even though it looks really good.

I simply don't agree that Metroid has comparable production values. I mean, Dread doesn't have particularly impressive graphics as is, and I would definitely say Engage looks better than it. Cutscenes aren't comparable either. Again, FE has tons of CG cutscenes with voice acting. And music? Definitely not. Engage (for example) has a much bigger soundtrack than any Metroid game, and its soundtrack also uses tons of live instrumentation, whereas Metroid soundtracks have never used any live instruments throughout the entire series.

(P.S. FE Echoes actually crossed 1M as of Dec. 2022)

I think it's an incredibly bold prediction to say Dread and Prime 4 cost more, actually.

First of all, if you take a look over at the credits of Dread and Engage at MobyGames, you'll see a massive difference in the number of people who worked on each game: https://www.mobygames.com/game/198202/fire-emblem-engage/credits/switch/?autoplatform=true - FE Engage, 830 people - https://www.mobygames.com/game/172841/metroid-dread/credits/switch/?autoplatform=true - Metroid Dread, 220 people.

Second of all, Dread is a 10 hour long 2d game with serviceable graphics compared to a huge 3d JRPG with tons of voice acting, cutscenes, high quality battle animations, high quality character models, dozens of characters that needed to be designed, massive soundtrack with tons of live instrumentation, better graphics, etc.

Third, we haven't even seen Prime 4 yet, so there's no way to say for certain what the budget looks like right now.

I love the research you did but I would compare Metroid Prime with FE engage for a better comparison. OR Metroid Dread with Fire Emblem Awakening

 

[RealUncleNintendo]

How many people waiting for the direct just for this reaction:

 

[JackSamson]

How many people waiting for the direct just for this reaction:

That's it? That's the Nintendo Direct?

That was just a bunch of cheap walk cycles!

 

[Joe]

That's it? That's the Nintendo Direct?

That was just a bunch of cheap walk cycles!

NINTENDO BETRAYED US!!!

 

[BozPaggs]

The leaks have really killed the hypotheticals game so gang

What 3 things would you like in a September Direct?

Axiom Verge 3
Rayman Limbless Trilogy
Resi Rev 3

 

[LonkFromPA]

Been at the beach all day, did I miss anything today Fami?

 

[LuckyNumber69]

I love the research you did but I would compare Metroid Prime with FE engage for a better comparison. OR Metroid Dread with Fire Emblem Awakening

Metroid Prime - 123 people - https://www.mobygames.com/game/7783/metroid-prime/credits/gamecube/?autoplatform=true
Metroid Prime Remastered - 405 people - https://www.mobygames.com/game/199460/metroid-prime-remastered/credits/switch/?autoplatform=true
Metroid Dread - 220 people - https://www.mobygames.com/game/172841/metroid-dread/credits/switch/?autoplatform=true
Fire Emblem Awakening - 344 people - https://www.mobygames.com/game/61666/fire-emblem-awakening/credits/3ds/?autoplatform=true
Fire Emblem Engage - 830 people - https://www.mobygames.com/game/198202/fire-emblem-engage/credits/switch/?autoplatform=true

So Awakening easily beats Dread in the number of people working on it, while Engage more than doubles Prime Remastered. Prime Remastered is a bit higher than Awakening. All four easily beat the original version of Prime.

 

[ika]

I hope that we don’t get only F-Zero 99, It’d be pretty disappointing to me, even more knowing all 99 games except Tetris disappears after a few weeks (I’m still hoping that someday Mario 99 resurfaces somehow).

My dream still is a good HD treatment for GX, with some QOT additions like a easier way to unlock AX tracks and compatibility with GC controllers, and even release F-Zero X 64DD expansion/course creator on NSO.

They giving us only a temporary and gimmicky 99 version (even being potentially vey fun) is not enough for them to test the waters to see if there’s a market for a completely new entry in the franchise, in my opinion.

 

[Dark Cloud]

This topic is all kinds of swerves

 

[Supreme Overlord]

or why the Rare buyout was worse than the burning of the Library of Alexandria!

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not get too radical here.

Have you bothered to try to fathom the sheer depths of Donkey Kong lore that burned with the Library of Alexandria?

 

[AngryAlchemist]

Can we not make this into an obnoxious FE vs Metroid debate in the Direct thread of all things, jfc

You guys aren't even debating it right

 

[daybreak]

Reminder that there were numerous Nintendo titles that Pyoro didn't know about last time. They don't know the entire Direct contents. I'm skeptical that they know much about this one at all.

 

[Raccoon]

I for one am hoping that we only get F-ZERO 99

 

[Tangerine_Cookie]

Why the assumption that an F-Zero 99 would be a temporary thing, anyway?

Super Mario 35 released as a limited time thing from the get go, and I'm not sure anyone actually played Pacman 99. But IIRC Tetris 99 is still alive and fine? It also got a physical release and single player/traditional Tetris multiplayer paid DLC.

 

[BlackthornOrion]

The leaks have really killed the hypotheticals game so gang

What 3 things would you like in a September Direct?

Ignoring leaks and just posting a wishlist?

- Mario Party Superstars Party Pass: DLC pulling 2 boards from each Gamecube game, included with NSO+

- A new Wario Land

- A smaller HAL title along the lines of Boxboy or Part-Time UFO (I'd take a Boxboy trilogy collection)

 

[Raccoon]

Why the assumption that an F-Zero 99 would be a temporary thing, anyway?

Super Mario 35 released as a limited time thing from the get go, and I'm not sure anyone actually played Pacman 99. But IIRC Tetris 99 is still alive and fine? It also got a physical release and single player/traditional Tetris multiplayer paid DLC.

yeah, I see Tetris 99 as one of the big success stories on Switch

 

[sagadego20]

This topic is all kinds of swerves

Indeed good Friggin grief!

 

[neon]

Can we not make this into an obnoxious FE vs Metroid debate in the Direct thread of all things, jfc

You guys aren't even debating it right

I don’t think anyone is insulting or putting any of the series down.

We’re simply speculating on how big profit margins might be for both, not how much ‘better’ one is over the other.
Agreed on it being kinda off topic but i feel this digressions keep the thread alive personally.

 

[Apopheniac]

I use Mobygames as much as the next guy but I don't know how much you can glean from comparing staff counts across different franchises from different developers. A ton of FE is VA, outsourcing, and orchestra, which are costly but not to the extent that dedicated internal development is

 

[indospot]

Why the assumption that an F-Zero 99 would be a temporary thing, anyway?

Super Mario 35 released as a limited time thing from the get go, and I'm not sure anyone actually played Pacman 99. But IIRC Tetris 99 is still alive and fine? It also got a physical release and single player/traditional Tetris multiplayer paid DLC.

To be fair it being F-Zero means no one will play it either

 

[Bargo]

If there is an F-Zero GX HD, it would be a little odd not to show that off alongside F-Zero 99?

 

[Tangerine_Cookie]

yeah, I see Tetris 99 as one of the big success stories on Switch

How Tetris 99 did is basically why I keep thinking F-Zero 99 with a paid F-Zero game sold as DLC for it makes sense, really.

Get a bunch of people trying F-Zero for free as part of their NSO subscription, then investing on the full release for single player/extra tracks/other stuff. Heck, let people that buy the full package customize their ship for the battle royale mode and you have the obvious hook.

 

[AxkilAvenger]

where is all this f zero 99 talk coming from?
I thought we were getting GX Remaster hopefully with online.
Was something said in the last 48 hrs?

 

[AngryAlchemist]

I don’t think anyone is insulting or putting any of the series down.

We’re simply speculating on how big profit margins might be for both, not how much ‘better’ one is over the other.
Agreed on it being kinda off topic but i feel this digressions keep the thread alive personally.

I know you guys aren't putting any other series down but the discussion isn't even high-quality

Like, once you start using VA to inflate staff count (which is usually very inexpensive on an individual basis and only expensive as a macro level total cost)) to make one series look way more expensive than the other, you've gone off the plot.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Prime 4+Prime Remastered is 6 years of Austin salaries+tons of outsourcing which is probably like $150m to $200m pre-marketing.

 

[Deleted member 3433]

where is all this f zero 99 talk coming from?
I thought we were getting GX Remaster hopefully with online.
Was something said in the last 48 hrs?

Pyoro liking tweets that had F-ZERO 99 in them. Doesn't really say much anyway IMO.

 

[Tangerine_Cookie]

Also now realizing that if F-Zero 99 is real, and with Battle 64 returning in Super Bomberman R2, I'm gonna be playing two different battle royale games at the same time starting next week

 

[Smash Kirby]

Everytime the lists come up, I take as a redflag.. actual leaks are like this (no, seriously)

Just to show people at Nintendo is just people like us, using Microsoft Excel 97

The file is more than likely an .xls file which is know in Office as a 97-2003 Excel file.

 

[Raccoon]

How Tetris 99 did is basically why I keep thinking F-Zero 99 with a paid F-Zero game sold as DLC for it makes sense, really.

Get a bunch of people trying F-Zero for free as part of their NSO subscription, then investing on the full release for single player/extra tracks/other stuff. Heck, let people that buy the full package customize their ship for the battle royale mode and you have the obvious hook.

oh yeah I'd love to see it be an original game, maybe with a stylized low poly art style

 

[Deleted member 2]

holy shit the original mr bones ban is only 1 month

wish it were permanent

 

[BlackthornOrion]

man you are gonna hate this direct...

The picture got me thinking about how Nintendo presents itself as this cutesy, cozy, friendly company, and they're the only console-holder I've never seen post those cringey "welcome to the family" graphics.

Like, they have the most corporate, impersonal "today Nintendo Co. Ltd. is announcing the acquisition of (insert company here)" press releases and I unironically find that way preferable to pretending "oh gosh, our tight-knit family here at Business Incorporated just got a little bit bigger".

 

[RealUncleNintendo]

 

[Apopheniac]

Why the assumption that an F-Zero 99 would be a temporary thing, anyway?

I don't see F-Zero 99 as something that would end up being more successful than Pac-Man 99. Even if you argue that it rolls into another F-Zero release, I'm not convinced it could have more appeal than Pac-Man

Tbh I think most of the audience for this kind of thing bought into Tetris 99 and getting them into anything else 99 long-term is both a difficult proposition and a sum-zero game

 

[Deleted member 2]

Been at the beach all day, did I miss anything today Fami?

nope, just aimless mayhem

 

[Supreme Overlord]

we need the return of metroid prime pinball tbh, that would also be a perfect game for a mini

I say this every time, but not including Metroid Prime Pinball as a bonus with the remastered Metroid Prime was a real missed opportunity.

 

[AlwaysOnDeck]

If there is an F-Zero GX HD, it would be a little odd not to show that off alongside F-Zero 99?

F-Zero GX HD is going to be a remaster of the GameCube game, likely with the Pikmin 1+2 treatment (upressed, no online). F-Zero 99 will be a short-lived online experience.

Why the assumption that an F-Zero 99 would be a temporary thing, anyway?

IIRC Tetris 99 is still alive and fine? It also got a physical release and single player/traditional Tetris multiplayer paid DLC.

Tetris is the most accessible, and arguably the most popular, video game ever created. F-Zero is a cult classic that even Nintendo doesn't believe will ever commercially successful.

As a fellow Mexican I must say that the trick with Taco Bell is that you need to approach it as junk food and not mexican food

Taco Bell is literally junk food, and not Mexican food. Very bad, garbage junk food, at that.

Mario Party Superstars Party Pass: DLC pulling 2 boards from each Gamecube game, included with NSO+

As someone who purchased, and hated, Mario Party Superstars, I would very much welcome this, if it leans into the GameCube games and mostly ignores the N64 ones.

 

[anderson64]

Kimishima underrated imo

 

[tender]

Please don't ruin Hatsune Miku like this. Rhythm Heaven is poison.

???

What?

Is this a bit?

 

[RealUncleNintendo]

What if the closer for the direct is to look forward to a future date for new hardware?

 

[chocolate_supra]

nope, just aimless mayhem

does it count as aimless mayhem if mayhem was what we were aiming for?

 

[james]

Please don't ruin Hatsune Miku like this. Rhythm Heaven is poison.

 

[Supreme Overlord]

THOSE ARE JOYCON COLORS

WE'E HAD THE ANSWER ALL ALONG!!!!

Oh sweet! New hardware reveal!