StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST6| It’s Prime Time For Some More Wonderful Speculation! (Spoiler Crowd, Remain In This Thread Until The Direct Ends!)

[Gartooth]

RE: Star Fox Zero

The game would've always sold bad as a 2016 Wii U exclusive even if it turned out differently just because whatever audience the Wii U had was already moving on by that late in its life. But if I'm Nintendo I think the bigger disappointment isn't so much the sales but instead the response from fans and critics not liking the game and what that means for the IP's reputation.

Zero should've been the "Star Fox is back!" moment for the series given the amount of marketing push (for a Wii U game) and the names involved like Miyamoto and Platinum Games. Basically at the end of Wii U's life the two biggest games hyped up for the platform by Nintendo were BotW (before it became cross-gen) and SFZ.

 

[Dark Cloud]

I hope Wonder will feature secret exits, a fun world map to explore & uncover and lots of levels.
That's all I'm asking for a 2D Mario.

I’m going to make sure this happens.

 

[Ozzie]

Capcom expects to sell 600k physical games by the end of the fiscal year so this is unlikely to be a multiplatform title. Sounds more like a platform exclusive but 600k physical is a little low for a MH game to be out on Switch. Rise's launch week sales was over 1.3m and World was very similar. Both platforms should make higher physical debuts than 600k. And on top of all, that 600k number should be for ALL Capcom games, we also have a Apollo Justice game coming up.

We'll have both Direct and State of Play this month, Capcom had made huge debuts on both in the past. If it's MH6, State of Play sounds like a better candidate. But if it's that super secret Megaman game, my money is on Direct. This sounds more like a Megaman RPG, tbh.

Is it actually 600k? because I did see this tweet:



Also, if they plan to sell mollions from an unannounced game, it could be MH at the end of March/end fiscal year because MH anniversary is also in March plus it wouldn't be MASSIVE numbers since it would be at the end of the fiscal year.

But if it's 600k then nevermind lol.

 

[Dark Cloud]

The Peach game, Splatoon’s Side Order, Mario RPG, Capcom game or something new I can see starting the direct.

 

[MisterSpo]

I'm a big fan of the new Smash DLC theory, but regardless of whether the detailed amiibo research checks out, 2023 is very clearly a year in which Nintendo have had to gradually refresh the subscription offering and they may need to go further in the next few months:

• Base tier NSO drops have been increasingly sporadic, so GameBoy was added to provide easy NSO fodder for that tier.
• Pacman 99 closes on October 8th 2023. The game launched 6 days after Super Mario Bros 35 was shuttered, so we may well have a new 99 game or a new NSO-only game in mid-October.
• On the Expansion Pack front, Nintendo are running out of N64 games. Once this year's releases are complete, we'll have 29 titles on the service, with only Donkey Kong 64 and Super Smash Bros as 'easy' additions in the future (31 titles being a decent improvement over the ~20 titles on VC). Presumably, Nintendo have secured further licenses (Diddy Kong Racing?), but the addition of GBA earlier this year is obviously one way to mitigate having fewer N64 titles launching in future.
• Mario Kart 8 DLC comes to an end later this year, so Nintendo may want replacement content either this autumn or early next year

Now, on the last point, there's zero guarantee Nintendo find a 'replacement' offering (like Smash DLC), but look at the other examples above: they've added another system to the base tier after SNES and NES titles dried up; Pacman 99 was a 'replacement' for Super Mario Bros 35 back in 2021 and may be replaced itself this October; GBA has launched as N64 releases slowed down and became increasingly difficult to secure.

Nintendo also seem unwilling to include single-player DLC in the Expansion Pack offering, unless they've already made their money from it (Splatoon 2's DLC was added to the Expansion Pack, but Splatoon 3's DLC is only available as a stand-alone purchase for now). Even if a high profile title like Zelda gets DLC, we can assume Nintendo will want to make their money from it and position it as a stand-alone purchase outside the subscription. As @Paraspikey pointed out, Nintendo have the pre-existing DLC for Smash which they could potentially roll into the subscription alongside adding some new content. Additional content this autumn would mark 5 years since the game's original launch, as well as two years since previous DLC support wrapped up. Importantly, that means Nintendo have had a meaningful amount of time to sell the DLC and profit from it as a stand-alone purchase.

Fighter's Pass 3 would be the simplest, highest profile way of Nintendo going about this, but maybe we'll see something else. Extra returning stages would be neat, but I can't see that being a particularly big draw - certainly not the way extra fighters would be. Perhaps a mix of content - returning stages, more echo fighters, more bosses; personally I'd have loved a boss rush mode and a 'proper', reconfigured All-Stars Mode. Nintendo could also easily stop at the Easy Mode option of rolling the two Fighter Passes - and perhaps the Mii Fighter costumes - into the Expansion Pack without providing further DLC support.

 

[9-Volt]

Is it actually 600k? because I did see this tweet:



Also, if they plan to sell mollions from an unannounced game, it could be MH at the end of March/end fiscal year because MH anniversary is also in March plus it wouldn't be MASSIVE numbers since it would be at the end of the fiscal year.

But if it's 600k then nevermind lol.

600k PHYSICAL. Someone here in this thread made the calculation and only 600k physical sales left in Capcom's target.

600k physical is too low for both Playstation and Nintendo exclusive MH games. Both World and Rise opened with 1.3 physical copies...

And it's supposed to be for ALL of their physical sales.

 

[Ozzie]

600k PHYSICAL. Someone here in this thread made the calculation and only 600k physical sales left in Capcom's target.

600k physical is too low for both Playstation and Nintendo exclusive MH games. Both World and Rise opened with 1.3 physical copies...

And it's supposed to be for ALL of their physical sales.

Ahh that make sense then. Oh well, it was fun to speculate lol.

 

[Beansy]

What’s everyone looking forward to the most seeing in the Mario Direct?

Elephant Peach...

 

[Gartooth]

For NSO Expansion Pack they're in a weird situation. For base tier they've at least finished the content road map for GameBoy (other than 1 Japan-only game) that it would make sense to market new perks for that service in September. Particularly with Pac-Man 99 near the end of its life.

Expansion Pack though? Nintendo still has months of content planned and advertised to get them through until the beginning of next year with 1 more Mario Kart wave and a handful of N64 and GBA games left that were promised.

The question they've gotta ask is if that road map is compelling enough to drive renewals through this holiday, or if they are gonna hit the panic button and prematurely announce more N64/GBA games coming in the future even if it would be like another 6 months before customers would actually see those games released.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Someone said they’d like to see a Shark transformation in Mario Wonder would be cool. Because Nintendo can create completely unique levels designed on an animal transformation.

Elephant
Shark
Giraffe or horse
Monkey
Lion
Yoshi as a dragon would most likely be

 

[MisterSpo]

For NSO Expansion Pack they're in a weird situation. For base tier they've at least finished the content road map for GameBoy (other than 1 Japan-only game) that it would make sense to market new perks for that service in September. Particularly with Pac-Man 99 near the end of its life.

Expansion Pack though? Nintendo still has months of content planned and advertised to get them through until the beginning of next year with 1 more Mario Kart wave and a handful of N64 and GBA games left that were promised.

The question they've gotta ask is if that road map is compelling enough to drive renewals through this holiday, or if they are gonna hit the panic button and prematurely announce more N64/GBA games coming in the future even if it would be like another 6 months before customers would actually see those games released.

One simple solution this Christmas would be just to add some pre-existing DLC - like the existing Fighters Pass stuff for Smash - as a way to increase the value of the Expansion Pack without Nintendo needing to do all that much themselves. I do think it'll be interesting to see if Nintendo wait until February to detail 2024 titles for GBA and N64; they actually ran out of previously announced games before they updated the N64 roadmap in 2022.

For the base tier I don't think announcing forthcoming GB titles is all that important to them; unless they had something genuinely high profile like the Pokemon RPGs. Outside of Pokemon, I think that'll just be a case of random drops from now on.

 

[NintendoMariah]

Bunning

Animal Crossing was already mainstream even pre-New Horizons, just not "capital G gamer" mainstream.

New Leaf sold ~13 million on 3DS; it was the 6th best-selling game on the platform, and the only 3DS games that sold more were Mario Kart, some (but not all) of the Pokemon RPGs, and NSMB2. More people bought Animal Crossing New Leaf than Smash or any Zelda game on that system, and it's not even really close. I don't know what you could call that besides mainstream.

You didn’t play Zelda, Pikmin or Metroid Prime

Wowwwwwwwwww

 

[Zumikoi]

Someone said they’d like to see a Shark transformation in Mario Wonder would be cool. Because Nintendo can create completely unique levels designed on an animal transformation.

Elephant
Shark
Giraffe or horse
Monkey
Lion
Yoshi as a dragon would most likely be

Yoshi will be a pangolin.

 

[Evil Lucario]

TLDR:
Amiibo restocks have historically 99% been related to upcoming Nintendo software announcements or releases. These restocks can not relate to Nintendo Live, and they weren't announced the day they went live, meaning they relate to future announcements and releases.
Here are the upcoming restocks and what they could relate to:
-August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [New Content Reveal?] (1 month before reveal?)
-November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content Release?] (Same month as release?)
-August 28th: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Mario Wonder Direct]
-Fall 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [Mario Wonder] (Could be same month?)
-Fall 2023: Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [TOTK DLC/Wind Waker and Twilight Princess] (Could be same month?)
-Fall 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal] (Could be same month/1 month after?) (Can't be Prime 2 and/or 3 since they don't have Amiibo Functionality)

Sora Amiibo being expected by retailers, the Gamecube controller restocks, and the Smash site updating removing the accessories tab makes me think it's more likely we'll get something Ultimate related than not, and if they want to sell a long-running DLC pass on NSO since MK8's DLC is about to end, a Fighter's Pass 3, and putting Fighter's Pass 1 and 2 on there would be perfect.

If this turns out true, the speculation game is gonna be great going forward.

 

[MrBones]

I really hope they're not mean. That's not why I play Animal Crossing and could potentially turn some of the younger audience away. Just give them more dialogue and make gifts harder to obtain.

IIRC I think it's only Cranky villagers who will say mean stuff. Idk I like the variety, I think kids can take it.

Animal Crossing was already mainstream even pre-New Horizons, just not "capital G gamer" mainstream.

New Leaf sold ~13 million on 3DS; it was the 6th best-selling game on the platform, and the only 3DS games that sold more were Mario Kart, some (but not all) of the Pokemon RPGs, and NSMB2. More people bought Animal Crossing New Leaf than Smash or any Zelda game on that system, and it's not even really close. I don't know what you could call that besides mainstream.

Wild World sold 11.75m on the DS too. Animal Crossing hasn't been niche for decades. The only games that had lower sales are Population Growing (GameCube game, also cross-gen port in Japan) and City Folk, which was essentially was just a port of WW. And those were only 2-4 million sellers, terrible numbers obviously. /s

 

[palemire]

Super Smash Bros.: amiibo Festival confirmed

 

[Beansy]

Super Smash Bros.: amiibo Festival confirmed

Death or therapy, you must choose.
Or maybe Gex too ig...

 

[CypressFX]

Hello! I'm not super sure where this belongs, though since this relates to Nintendo Directs and announcements/releases happening in the near future, I thought this would fit here.
Since late July, I've been looking into Amiibo, Amiibo restocks, and the connections they have to their announcements and reveals, and I wanted to present what I've found so far and what it has related to so I can get some possible feedback on my research (I've mostly been researching this in more closed off Discord communities, so I've been trying to reach out to others without a general bias to see if they think this has much ground).
This is going to be a bit long, though there is a lot to say on the matter. I'll provide a TLDR at the end.

----

• On July 25th, there was a massive Greece retailer who listed a bunch of Amiibo restocks happening.
  (Source)

The first 2 waves relate to Smash Brothers, the first wave being on August 28th, and the second wave being on November 10th, Rosalina and Boo (SMB Line) were restocked on August 28th, and Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser, Samus (Metroid Line), Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link I don't have exact dates for, so I'd assume "Fall - Holiday 2023."

This stood out to me. In 2020, there was a Polish Amiibo leak that happened, and all of those restocks pointed to Nintendo announcements being made from May 2020 - February 2021.
These included...
SMB Mario: Restocked in September 2020 (SMB 35th Anniversary)
The Zelda Line: Restocked in September 2020 (Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity's announcement)
The Splatoon Line: Restocked in June 2020 and in February 2021 (Splatoon 2 Support coming back, Splatoon 3's announcement)
Cloud and Cloud P2: Restocked in late September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
Ryu: Restocked in early September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
The Pokemon Smash Line: Restocked in late November 2020 (Sephiroth's Smash reveal)

After remembering this, since the Smash line was getting restocked, I decided to look into the Amiibo restocks I could and see what I connected to, and after digging, I realized that I've looked through most, if not all, of the restocks that has happened since the Switch era, and ALL of them has connected to software announcements and releases.
I wrote a document with all of the restocks I could find.

(When the restocks happen late in the month, when the announcement happens early the next month, I just put "1 month [X]" to make it simpler.)
(The last 2 Animal Crossing ones could also just be them selling off pre-existing stock since I found those on reddit, though both posts were in early April.)
(Some of these are also rough estimates due to the exact date being unavailable and the article only referring to it happening on a specific month.)
After looking at reputable Aliexpress retailer "ArtSwift"'s account, there's a lot more than this that has connected, like Smash restocks being before Sora's reveal and before his release, alongside the Metroid Smash line being restocked alongside Metroid Dread's release.

I think I looked as much as I did due to being in part disbelief that Smash news could be happening soon due to the restocks. But I couldn't find one that wasn't related to an announcement, release, or big push for that specific brand (Mar10 day, which had a Switch Bundle of "Pick 1 out of 3 Mario games" and Bowser with the Mario Movie)
Long story short, all of the Amiibo restocks they've done are related to software announcements and releases related to the line they're restocking. It's a bit of a crazy pattern.
This means all of the restocks they're doing should also connect to stuff.
So, in this same document, I wrote down what can be concluded about the restocks, New Amiibo in general, and what the restocks could be related to.

At first thought, I assumed the Smash restocks needed to be for Nintendo Live, but on their FAQ page, they specifically say that there will be no new product announcements at the event. (Source)
Then I thought Nintendo would announce them on August 28th since that's the date they go on sale. They would have to announce them then to make sure the demand for the Amiibo is there, much like how they announced the Skyward Sword Link restock on June 20th, since that didn't directly connect to a new announcement (though it did connect to TOTK's release) (Source)
But they didn't do that. This follows the pattern of what they normally do to prep up an announcement/release to silent stock stores so there is enough Amiibo stock demand for people who are interested in using them for new software.
These restocks also aren't happening in the Americas, and they have brand new packaging, which specifically excludes the American and Canadian websites. (Source)
This is due to the fact NoA is the global center of marketing for Nintendo since it is Nintendo's biggest financial market. They hold off on having Amiibo restocked in the Americas, specifically when they want to tie it into something.
For 2 examples, they restocked Kirby's Amiibo in Japan a couple of weeks after Super Kirby Clash was announced/released, and they restocked Fire Emblem Amiibos in Australia on December 16th, the day they announced the Engage Expansion Pass at The Game Awards 2022.
(Fire Emblem Source) (Kirby Source)

Of course, despite researching this extensively, I wasn't convinced anything was happening until they didn't announce it yesterday, but today, they announced the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, which directly connects with the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks that happened on the 28th.
To me, this pretty much soft-confirms something Smash-related, software-wise, is going to happen. They've never done restocks specifically for Amiibo announcements, and speaking of which...

• On July 4th, Artswift, the Amiibo retailer I referred to earlier, said that they expect a Sora Amiibo announcement "in the near future."
  (Source)

This is probably the strongest piece of evidence relating to something Smash Brothers happening in this direct, for 2 main reasons.
1. They've never announced new Amiibo on their own during the Switch generation, especially for a 5-year-old game. It has always been announced alongside or shortly after new content, announcement, or release. The only time they've announced an Amiibo unrelated to new content day and date were Marine and Pearl, which...

• It was announced 2 days after the Splatoon 2 Concert that happened in February, which happened on a weekend, which means they couldn't of announced it
• The day after, we got the Splatoon 2 Starter Kit announced
• Not even a month later, we got the Octo Expansion announced on the March 8th Direct.

(This is a good source to find when they've announced a brand new Amiibo.)
2. The Sora Amiibo wasn't announced in the Sora Sakurai presents. If they were planning on just revealing it 2 months after Pyra/Mythra's Amiibo release with nothing tied to it, why not announce it alongside everyone else?
3. The Sora Amiibo code isn't in the game, which means if they randomly announce it, they would have to go back into the game after 2 years and program the Amiibo AI and roll out the update, which isn't an easy task nor is something any company nor developer would willingly do. They updated the game to have Amiibo support from Min Min to Kazuya. If they weren't saving it for something, why not include it? It'll be a waste of resources on Nintendo to do it randomly. Sakurai said the team "disbanded" in October 2021, and they would have to come back together ONLY to patch the game with Sora Amiibo support, something very unlikely if they're not working on a new game, like how they were able to patch Sm4sh to add Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta Amiibo support in 2017 since they were working on Ultimate, which was after they were announced in the December 2015 Smash Presentation, due to them knowing they wouldn't have the chance to announce it sooner.
(Source on Smash Ultimate updates)
4. They've never done restocks for new Amiibo specifically. Sometimes, a release could align with a new Amiibo being announced, though there has never been a case where a game, after being dormant for years, gets a new Amiibo announced with nothing new tied to it.
5. Since Sora would have to have the Smash Ultimate branding, it is very unlikely for it to be announced alongside content for a game that isn't Ultimate.

• There is a lot more that points to something happening, though I would only like to point out a couple more things.

- They restocked the Smash Gamecube controller in Japan. The last time they did this was in January 2020, 3 weeks before Fighters Pass 2's reveal.
(Source for 2023 Restock) (Source for 2020 Restock)
-Smash Amiibo tend to be stocked, on average, 16 days from the restock to their reveal (Fatmanonice's research). 16 days from now would be September 13th, the probable date of the direct.
-The Smash Site updated, seemingly removing the Accessories page that was there (Internet Archive shows it was removed by December 2022 - April 2023)
(What the Smash site looks like since April 2023) (What the Smash site looked like from before April 2023))
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's DLC is ending in September with its last wave, much like how they announced it when Sora was announced. Nintendo needs to announce DLC with content waves like how they did with Smash and Mario Kart so they can put it on their NSO service.
- Restocks happen in waves ONLY with releases (TOTK, BOTW, Fire Emblem, and Kirby). This means the content the line is for has to be released at some point this year, which means it can't be for a new game or a "port" to a newer generation.

----
This is about everything I wanted to share and have possible feedback on. Apologies for the long read, but there is so much here that points to more content for Ultimate being announced in the probable September direct. Even if we don't get anything Smash, it was fun looking into all of this, and at least we have something to use that could relate to new software.

• TLDR:
  Amiibo restocks have historically 99% been related to upcoming Nintendo software announcements or releases. These restocks can not relate to Nintendo Live, and they weren't announced the day they went live, meaning they relate to future announcements and releases.
  Here are the upcoming restocks and what they could relate to:
  -August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [New Content Reveal?] (1 month before reveal?)
  -November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content Release?] (Same month as release?)
  -August 28th: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Mario Wonder Direct]
  -Fall 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [Mario Wonder] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [TOTK DLC/Wind Waker and Twilight Princess] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal] (Could be same month/1 month after?) (Can't be Prime 2 and/or 3 since they don't have Amiibo Functionality)
  
  Sora Amiibo being expected by retailers, the Gamecube controller restocks, and the Smash site updating removing the accessories tab makes me think it's more likely we'll get something Ultimate related than not, and if they want to sell a long-running DLC pass on NSO since MK8's DLC is about to end, a Fighter's Pass 3, and putting Fighter's Pass 1 and 2 on there would be perfect.

Wait, so these Zelda amiibos are related to Wind Waker and TP (the games) and thus could be released this year?

I dont get this one, dont hate me guys!

 

[Beansy]

Wait, so these Zelda amiibos are related to Wind Waker and TP (the games) and thus could be released this year?

I dont get this one, dont hate me guys!

Zelda news = more interest in Zelda = more opportunities for sales = more product being manufactured = more Zelda Amiibo. Doesn't matter what kind of Amiibo it is as long as it's Zelda. Wolf link could mean wolf link companion is back, archer could just be generic and LA is a brand new armor set for TotK.

 

[SirShorse]

I honestly just want the Sora amiibo so I can finally be happy in life

Also, nobody picked this up AFAIK but Grubb doesn't think there's a General Direct in September because of the Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, due to if there WERE to be a General, they could've just done the Mario Wonder stuff in that.

But I think it's because Mario Wonder is playable at Nintendo Live and they just need to get this info out there before that event.

 

[PixelKnight]

Capcom expects to sell 600k physical games by the end of the fiscal year so this is unlikely to be a multiplatform title. Sounds more like a platform exclusive but 600k physical is a little low for a MH game to be out on Switch. Rise's launch week sales was over 1.3m and World was very similar. Both platforms should make higher physical debuts than 600k. And on top of all, that 600k number should be for ALL Capcom games, we also have a Apollo Justice game coming up.

We'll have both Direct and State of Play this month, Capcom had made huge debuts on both in the past. If it's MH6, State of Play sounds like a better candidate. But if it's that super secret Megaman game, my money is on Direct. This sounds more like a Megaman RPG, tbh.

Maybe an outside shot, but how about Monster Hunter Stories 3?

 

[MisterSpo]

Wait, so these Zelda amiibos are related to Wind Waker and TP (the games) and thus could be released this year?

I dont get this one, dont hate me guys!

It could simply be Nintendo reprinting the amiibos to tie in with DLC for Tears of the Kingdom, as well as the fact it's the first holiday season for TotK and it will likely be a big seller. I would be very surprised if Wind Waker or Twilight Princess - let alone both - released in the next few months.

I honestly just want the Sora amiibo so I can finally be happy in life

Also, nobody picked this up AFAIK but Grubb doesn't think there's a General Direct in September because of the Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, due to if there WERE to be a General, they could've just done the Mario Wonder stuff in that.

But I think it's because Mario Wonder is playable at Nintendo Live and they just need to get this info out there before that event.

Eh, we see these kinds of guesses all the time, including the repeated insistence earlier this year Nintendo couldn't possibly do a June Direct without E3. That was the received wisdom among a chunk of journalists despite the absence of any second half software line up for Nintendo.

Pretty simply the case that 15 minutes of news on one game doesn't really happen in a Direct any more. As you say, it's more likely related to Nintendo Live and there were some clear hints last week Nintendo held a preview event for Mario Bros Wonder. Wouldn't surprise me to see previews of the game go live after tomorrow's Direct.

Maybe an outside shot, but how about Monster Hunter Stories 3?

Fits the sales expectations I guess and I'd wondered if it could be the missing game. I wanted to like Stories 2 more than I did and gave up on it, but I'd be rooted for Stories 3 to come along and be an excellent game.

 

[xghost777]

I think the only thing the Mario Wonder Direct shifts is the potential likelihood of timing of the next Direct. The first week of September is looking less likely to me to give presentations room to breathe. I still think they’ll avoid Pokemon week to give Pokemon its time in the spotlight (DLC for a game that sold 20 million plus copies is a big deal), so TGS week is seeming even more likely to me. Regardless, the next three weeks are the most likely candidates by far in case anything that shows up there is present at TGS.

 

[Dark Cloud]

I don’t see a direct next week anymore. This isn’t how Nintendo rolls with 2 directs in 2 straight weeks. They’ll give it a “breather”.

Pyoro already liked a tweet that said September 13th and @Dragoncaine did analysis from previous years which lined up for September 13th. Pokémon dlc will be shown and announced to release after the direct.

 

[Koren Lesthe]

Nintendo the 13th
(screaming)

 

[Bonejack]

Nintendo the 13th
(screaming)

 

[SammyJ9]

As of now, IIRC literally the only 100% fullproof pattern that has never been broken in the Switch era is that there's a Nintendo Direct in September sometime before the start of TGS, and it's on more than just one game. Even in 2020, we got the Mario Direct and Monster Hunter. I don't see any reason to doubt that now, it's going to happen. It's just a question of when they do it.

 

[Dragoncaine]

I don’t see a direct next week anymore. This isn’t how Nintendo rolls with 2 directs in 2 straight weeks. They’ll give it a “breather”.

Pyoro already liked a tweet that said September 13th and @Dragoncaine did analysis from previous years which lined up for September 13th. Pokémon dlc will be shown and announced to release after the direct.

I'm waiting for that sweet vindication, brother the only question that really remains for me is whether it's a 10am ET or 6pm ET direct.

 

[SammyJ9]

I'm waiting for that sweet vindication, brother the only question that really remains for me is whether it's a 10am ET or 6pm ET direct.

That's my concern, too. I would hate to get the date right and lose the avatar bet because it's in the morning! Plus I just prefer to have them in the afternoon anyway.

 

[Dragoncaine]

That's my concern, too. I would hate to get the date right and lose the avatar bet because it's in the morning! Plus I just prefer to have them in the afternoon anyway.

At the end of a workday is always preferable to at the start, but that's just me being selfish with timezones lol

 

[Bonejack]

Team "Whatever Time is best for Europeans"

 

[MisterSpo]

13th would be disappointing because we already have the Pokemon DLC that day and Nintendo make things too easy for both the Legitimate Speculation Society and the Alliance of Trolls and Fakes by doing the Direct the same day as that.

September's the easiest one to call because of TGS, but still. At least do the 6th or 20th to keep people on their toes.

 

[entut1]

Hello! I'm not super sure where this belongs, though since this relates to Nintendo Directs and announcements/releases happening in the near future, I thought this would fit here.
Since late July, I've been looking into Amiibo, Amiibo restocks, and the connections they have to their announcements and reveals, and I wanted to present what I've found so far and what it has related to so I can get some possible feedback on my research (I've mostly been researching this in more closed off Discord communities, so I've been trying to reach out to others without a general bias to see if they think this has much ground).
This is going to be a bit long, though there is a lot to say on the matter. I'll provide a TLDR at the end.

----

• On July 25th, there was a massive Greece retailer who listed a bunch of Amiibo restocks happening.
  (Source)

The first 2 waves relate to Smash Brothers, the first wave being on August 28th, and the second wave being on November 10th, Rosalina and Boo (SMB Line) were restocked on August 28th, and Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser, Samus (Metroid Line), Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link I don't have exact dates for, so I'd assume "Fall - Holiday 2023."

This stood out to me. In 2020, there was a Polish Amiibo leak that happened, and all of those restocks pointed to Nintendo announcements being made from May 2020 - February 2021.
These included...
SMB Mario: Restocked in September 2020 (SMB 35th Anniversary)
The Zelda Line: Restocked in September 2020 (Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity's announcement)
The Splatoon Line: Restocked in June 2020 and in February 2021 (Splatoon 2 Support coming back, Splatoon 3's announcement)
Cloud and Cloud P2: Restocked in late September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
Ryu: Restocked in early September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
The Pokemon Smash Line: Restocked in late November 2020 (Sephiroth's Smash reveal)

After remembering this, since the Smash line was getting restocked, I decided to look into the Amiibo restocks I could and see what I connected to, and after digging, I realized that I've looked through most, if not all, of the restocks that has happened since the Switch era, and ALL of them has connected to software announcements and releases.
I wrote a document with all of the restocks I could find.

(When the restocks happen late in the month, when the announcement happens early the next month, I just put "1 month [X]" to make it simpler.)
(The last 2 Animal Crossing ones could also just be them selling off pre-existing stock since I found those on reddit, though both posts were in early April.)
(Some of these are also rough estimates due to the exact date being unavailable and the article only referring to it happening on a specific month.)
After looking at reputable Aliexpress retailer "ArtSwift"'s account, there's a lot more than this that has connected, like Smash restocks being before Sora's reveal and before his release, alongside the Metroid Smash line being restocked alongside Metroid Dread's release.

I think I looked as much as I did due to being in part disbelief that Smash news could be happening soon due to the restocks. But I couldn't find one that wasn't related to an announcement, release, or big push for that specific brand (Mar10 day, which had a Switch Bundle of "Pick 1 out of 3 Mario games" and Bowser with the Mario Movie)
Long story short, all of the Amiibo restocks they've done are related to software announcements and releases related to the line they're restocking. It's a bit of a crazy pattern.
This means all of the restocks they're doing should also connect to stuff.
So, in this same document, I wrote down what can be concluded about the restocks, New Amiibo in general, and what the restocks could be related to.

At first thought, I assumed the Smash restocks needed to be for Nintendo Live, but on their FAQ page, they specifically say that there will be no new product announcements at the event. (Source)
Then I thought Nintendo would announce them on August 28th since that's the date they go on sale. They would have to announce them then to make sure the demand for the Amiibo is there, much like how they announced the Skyward Sword Link restock on June 20th, since that didn't directly connect to a new announcement (though it did connect to TOTK's release) (Source)
But they didn't do that. This follows the pattern of what they normally do to prep up an announcement/release to silent stock stores so there is enough Amiibo stock demand for people who are interested in using them for new software.
These restocks also aren't happening in the Americas, and they have brand new packaging, which specifically excludes the American and Canadian websites. (Source)
This is due to the fact NoA is the global center of marketing for Nintendo since it is Nintendo's biggest financial market. They hold off on having Amiibo restocked in the Americas, specifically when they want to tie it into something.
For 2 examples, they restocked Kirby's Amiibo in Japan a couple of weeks after Super Kirby Clash was announced/released, and they restocked Fire Emblem Amiibos in Australia on December 16th, the day they announced the Engage Expansion Pass at The Game Awards 2022.
(Fire Emblem Source) (Kirby Source)

Of course, despite researching this extensively, I wasn't convinced anything was happening until they didn't announce it yesterday, but today, they announced the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, which directly connects with the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks that happened on the 28th.
To me, this pretty much soft-confirms something Smash-related, software-wise, is going to happen. They've never done restocks specifically for Amiibo announcements, and speaking of which...

• On July 4th, Artswift, the Amiibo retailer I referred to earlier, said that they expect a Sora Amiibo announcement "in the near future."
  (Source)

This is probably the strongest piece of evidence relating to something Smash Brothers happening in this direct, for 2 main reasons.
1. They've never announced new Amiibo on their own during the Switch generation, especially for a 5-year-old game. It has always been announced alongside or shortly after new content, announcement, or release. The only time they've announced an Amiibo unrelated to new content day and date were Marine and Pearl, which...

• It was announced 2 days after the Splatoon 2 Concert that happened in February, which happened on a weekend, which means they couldn't of announced it
• The day after, we got the Splatoon 2 Starter Kit announced
• Not even a month later, we got the Octo Expansion announced on the March 8th Direct.

(This is a good source to find when they've announced a brand new Amiibo.)
2. The Sora Amiibo wasn't announced in the Sora Sakurai presents. If they were planning on just revealing it 2 months after Pyra/Mythra's Amiibo release with nothing tied to it, why not announce it alongside everyone else?
3. The Sora Amiibo code isn't in the game, which means if they randomly announce it, they would have to go back into the game after 2 years and program the Amiibo AI and roll out the update, which isn't an easy task nor is something any company nor developer would willingly do. They updated the game to have Amiibo support from Min Min to Kazuya. If they weren't saving it for something, why not include it? It'll be a waste of resources on Nintendo to do it randomly. Sakurai said the team "disbanded" in October 2021, and they would have to come back together ONLY to patch the game with Sora Amiibo support, something very unlikely if they're not working on a new game, like how they were able to patch Sm4sh to add Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta Amiibo support in 2017 since they were working on Ultimate, which was after they were announced in the December 2015 Smash Presentation, due to them knowing they wouldn't have the chance to announce it sooner.
(Source on Smash Ultimate updates)
4. They've never done restocks for new Amiibo specifically. Sometimes, a release could align with a new Amiibo being announced, though there has never been a case where a game, after being dormant for years, gets a new Amiibo announced with nothing new tied to it.
5. Since Sora would have to have the Smash Ultimate branding, it is very unlikely for it to be announced alongside content for a game that isn't Ultimate.

• There is a lot more that points to something happening, though I would only like to point out a couple more things.

- They restocked the Smash Gamecube controller in Japan. The last time they did this was in January 2020, 3 weeks before Fighters Pass 2's reveal.
(Source for 2023 Restock) (Source for 2020 Restock)
-Smash Amiibo tend to be stocked, on average, 16 days from the restock to their reveal (Fatmanonice's research). 16 days from now would be September 13th, the probable date of the direct.
-The Smash Site updated, seemingly removing the Accessories page that was there (Internet Archive shows it was removed by December 2022 - April 2023)
(What the Smash site looks like since April 2023) (What the Smash site looked like from before April 2023))
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's DLC is ending in September with its last wave, much like how they announced it when Sora was announced. Nintendo needs to announce DLC with content waves like how they did with Smash and Mario Kart so they can put it on their NSO service.
- Restocks happen in waves ONLY with releases (TOTK, BOTW, Fire Emblem, and Kirby). This means the content the line is for has to be released at some point this year, which means it can't be for a new game or a "port" to a newer generation.

----
This is about everything I wanted to share and have possible feedback on. Apologies for the long read, but there is so much here that points to more content for Ultimate being announced in the probable September direct. Even if we don't get anything Smash, it was fun looking into all of this, and at least we have something to use that could relate to new software.

• TLDR:
  Amiibo restocks have historically 99% been related to upcoming Nintendo software announcements or releases. These restocks can not relate to Nintendo Live, and they weren't announced the day they went live, meaning they relate to future announcements and releases.
  Here are the upcoming restocks and what they could relate to:
  -August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [New Content Reveal?] (1 month before reveal?)
  -November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content Release?] (Same month as release?)
  -August 28th: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Mario Wonder Direct]
  -Fall 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [Mario Wonder] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [TOTK DLC/Wind Waker and Twilight Princess] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal] (Could be same month/1 month after?) (Can't be Prime 2 and/or 3 since they don't have Amiibo Functionality)
  
  Sora Amiibo being expected by retailers, the Gamecube controller restocks, and the Smash site updating removing the accessories tab makes me think it's more likely we'll get something Ultimate related than not, and if they want to sell a long-running DLC pass on NSO since MK8's DLC is about to end, a Fighter's Pass 3, and putting Fighter's Pass 1 and 2 on there would be perfect.

Amazing amount of work right here. This could become a potential new tool for more informed speculation going forward.

 

[Marce-chan]

Hello! I'm not super sure where this belongs, though since this relates to Nintendo Directs and announcements/releases happening in the near future, I thought this would fit here.
Since late July, I've been looking into Amiibo, Amiibo restocks, and the connections they have to their announcements and reveals, and I wanted to present what I've found so far and what it has related to so I can get some possible feedback on my research (I've mostly been researching this in more closed off Discord communities, so I've been trying to reach out to others without a general bias to see if they think this has much ground).
This is going to be a bit long, though there is a lot to say on the matter. I'll provide a TLDR at the end.

----

• On July 25th, there was a massive Greece retailer who listed a bunch of Amiibo restocks happening.
  (Source)

The first 2 waves relate to Smash Brothers, the first wave being on August 28th, and the second wave being on November 10th, Rosalina and Boo (SMB Line) were restocked on August 28th, and Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser, Samus (Metroid Line), Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link I don't have exact dates for, so I'd assume "Fall - Holiday 2023."

This stood out to me. In 2020, there was a Polish Amiibo leak that happened, and all of those restocks pointed to Nintendo announcements being made from May 2020 - February 2021.
These included...
SMB Mario: Restocked in September 2020 (SMB 35th Anniversary)
The Zelda Line: Restocked in September 2020 (Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity's announcement)
The Splatoon Line: Restocked in June 2020 and in February 2021 (Splatoon 2 Support coming back, Splatoon 3's announcement)
Cloud and Cloud P2: Restocked in late September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
Ryu: Restocked in early September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
The Pokemon Smash Line: Restocked in late November 2020 (Sephiroth's Smash reveal)

After remembering this, since the Smash line was getting restocked, I decided to look into the Amiibo restocks I could and see what I connected to, and after digging, I realized that I've looked through most, if not all, of the restocks that has happened since the Switch era, and ALL of them has connected to software announcements and releases.
I wrote a document with all of the restocks I could find.

(When the restocks happen late in the month, when the announcement happens early the next month, I just put "1 month [X]" to make it simpler.)
(The last 2 Animal Crossing ones could also just be them selling off pre-existing stock since I found those on reddit, though both posts were in early April.)
(Some of these are also rough estimates due to the exact date being unavailable and the article only referring to it happening on a specific month.)
After looking at reputable Aliexpress retailer "ArtSwift"'s account, there's a lot more than this that has connected, like Smash restocks being before Sora's reveal and before his release, alongside the Metroid Smash line being restocked alongside Metroid Dread's release.

I think I looked as much as I did due to being in part disbelief that Smash news could be happening soon due to the restocks. But I couldn't find one that wasn't related to an announcement, release, or big push for that specific brand (Mar10 day, which had a Switch Bundle of "Pick 1 out of 3 Mario games" and Bowser with the Mario Movie)
Long story short, all of the Amiibo restocks they've done are related to software announcements and releases related to the line they're restocking. It's a bit of a crazy pattern.
This means all of the restocks they're doing should also connect to stuff.
So, in this same document, I wrote down what can be concluded about the restocks, New Amiibo in general, and what the restocks could be related to.

At first thought, I assumed the Smash restocks needed to be for Nintendo Live, but on their FAQ page, they specifically say that there will be no new product announcements at the event. (Source)
Then I thought Nintendo would announce them on August 28th since that's the date they go on sale. They would have to announce them then to make sure the demand for the Amiibo is there, much like how they announced the Skyward Sword Link restock on June 20th, since that didn't directly connect to a new announcement (though it did connect to TOTK's release) (Source)
But they didn't do that. This follows the pattern of what they normally do to prep up an announcement/release to silent stock stores so there is enough Amiibo stock demand for people who are interested in using them for new software.
These restocks also aren't happening in the Americas, and they have brand new packaging, which specifically excludes the American and Canadian websites. (Source)
This is due to the fact NoA is the global center of marketing for Nintendo since it is Nintendo's biggest financial market. They hold off on having Amiibo restocked in the Americas, specifically when they want to tie it into something.
For 2 examples, they restocked Kirby's Amiibo in Japan a couple of weeks after Super Kirby Clash was announced/released, and they restocked Fire Emblem Amiibos in Australia on December 16th, the day they announced the Engage Expansion Pass at The Game Awards 2022.
(Fire Emblem Source) (Kirby Source)

Of course, despite researching this extensively, I wasn't convinced anything was happening until they didn't announce it yesterday, but today, they announced the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, which directly connects with the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks that happened on the 28th.
To me, this pretty much soft-confirms something Smash-related, software-wise, is going to happen. They've never done restocks specifically for Amiibo announcements, and speaking of which...

• On July 4th, Artswift, the Amiibo retailer I referred to earlier, said that they expect a Sora Amiibo announcement "in the near future."
  (Source)

This is probably the strongest piece of evidence relating to something Smash Brothers happening in this direct, for 2 main reasons.
1. They've never announced new Amiibo on their own during the Switch generation, especially for a 5-year-old game. It has always been announced alongside or shortly after new content, announcement, or release. The only time they've announced an Amiibo unrelated to new content day and date were Marine and Pearl, which...

• It was announced 2 days after the Splatoon 2 Concert that happened in February, which happened on a weekend, which means they couldn't of announced it
• The day after, we got the Splatoon 2 Starter Kit announced
• Not even a month later, we got the Octo Expansion announced on the March 8th Direct.

(This is a good source to find when they've announced a brand new Amiibo.)
2. The Sora Amiibo wasn't announced in the Sora Sakurai presents. If they were planning on just revealing it 2 months after Pyra/Mythra's Amiibo release with nothing tied to it, why not announce it alongside everyone else?
3. The Sora Amiibo code isn't in the game, which means if they randomly announce it, they would have to go back into the game after 2 years and program the Amiibo AI and roll out the update, which isn't an easy task nor is something any company nor developer would willingly do. They updated the game to have Amiibo support from Min Min to Kazuya. If they weren't saving it for something, why not include it? It'll be a waste of resources on Nintendo to do it randomly. Sakurai said the team "disbanded" in October 2021, and they would have to come back together ONLY to patch the game with Sora Amiibo support, something very unlikely if they're not working on a new game, like how they were able to patch Sm4sh to add Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta Amiibo support in 2017 since they were working on Ultimate, which was after they were announced in the December 2015 Smash Presentation, due to them knowing they wouldn't have the chance to announce it sooner.
(Source on Smash Ultimate updates)
4. They've never done restocks for new Amiibo specifically. Sometimes, a release could align with a new Amiibo being announced, though there has never been a case where a game, after being dormant for years, gets a new Amiibo announced with nothing new tied to it.
5. Since Sora would have to have the Smash Ultimate branding, it is very unlikely for it to be announced alongside content for a game that isn't Ultimate.

• There is a lot more that points to something happening, though I would only like to point out a couple more things.

- They restocked the Smash Gamecube controller in Japan. The last time they did this was in January 2020, 3 weeks before Fighters Pass 2's reveal.
(Source for 2023 Restock) (Source for 2020 Restock)
-Smash Amiibo tend to be stocked, on average, 16 days from the restock to their reveal (Fatmanonice's research). 16 days from now would be September 13th, the probable date of the direct.
-The Smash Site updated, seemingly removing the Accessories page that was there (Internet Archive shows it was removed by December 2022 - April 2023)
(What the Smash site looks like since April 2023) (What the Smash site looked like from before April 2023))
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's DLC is ending in September with its last wave, much like how they announced it when Sora was announced. Nintendo needs to announce DLC with content waves like how they did with Smash and Mario Kart so they can put it on their NSO service.
- Restocks happen in waves ONLY with releases (TOTK, BOTW, Fire Emblem, and Kirby). This means the content the line is for has to be released at some point this year, which means it can't be for a new game or a "port" to a newer generation.

----
This is about everything I wanted to share and have possible feedback on. Apologies for the long read, but there is so much here that points to more content for Ultimate being announced in the probable September direct. Even if we don't get anything Smash, it was fun looking into all of this, and at least we have something to use that could relate to new software.

• TLDR:
  Amiibo restocks have historically 99% been related to upcoming Nintendo software announcements or releases. These restocks can not relate to Nintendo Live, and they weren't announced the day they went live, meaning they relate to future announcements and releases.
  Here are the upcoming restocks and what they could relate to:
  -August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [New Content Reveal?] (1 month before reveal?)
  -November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content Release?] (Same month as release?)
  -August 28th: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Mario Wonder Direct]
  -Fall 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [Mario Wonder] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [TOTK DLC/Wind Waker and Twilight Princess] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal] (Could be same month/1 month after?) (Can't be Prime 2 and/or 3 since they don't have Amiibo Functionality)
  
  Sora Amiibo being expected by retailers, the Gamecube controller restocks, and the Smash site updating removing the accessories tab makes me think it's more likely we'll get something Ultimate related than not, and if they want to sell a long-running DLC pass on NSO since MK8's DLC is about to end, a Fighter's Pass 3, and putting Fighter's Pass 1 and 2 on there would be perfect.

Wow, that was an amazing post!! Thank you for the research and findings!!

I've been predicting for awhile that Ultimate would get more content eventually. I don't see a new Smash game coming anytime soon in the Succ's life, and as it'll probably be BC, a port would make little sense, so a patch and a new Fighters Pass seems to be the way to go.

I think we might get as much as a non-announcement as "Sora amiibo will be releasing in spring 2024! And we'd also like to announce that... Fighters Pass 3 is coming!! Stay tuned for more details at a later date" and it has pre-orders opened and on eShop it's detailed 6 characters coming until December 31st 2025(placeholder date).

We get our first character announced at The Game Awards with a teaser trailer like that of Joker, and that one doesn't release until spring 2024. The second character reveal happens at the Switch 2 event/Direct in summer 2024, after the graphical enhancements are detailed and the patch announced, and it's Geno, releasing in Fall 2024 - Super Mario RPG 2 is announced for 2025 in the same event.

Or hey, maybe they go super nuts and have a CGI Geno trailer this Direct already to ride the hype for Wonder and Super Mario RPG, and announce that Smash Ultimate is going to get a new Fighters Pass as a shocking news.

I think Smash might skip the next gen and Ultimate getting two more passes and/or a repackage is what we get, much like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Booster Course Pass for Switch. But maybe they make the next game/reboot a cross gen game or even a final year megaton like TotK and Wonder this year.

I have been thinking...someone remind me or correct me but apparently there was a rumour that Nintendo will distribute a game for a 3rd party and many speculated that it may be Capcom.

Furthermore, Capcom is forecasted to release an unannounced that would sell mollions by the end of this fiscal year (March 2024).

Now...I remember some people speculating that it could be Resident Evil or Monster Hunter (Or Ace Attorney 7 via hopes and dreams lol). But many disagreed with Monster Hunter as we know that the next mainline MH game is MH6 for current gen (PS5/Series X/PC) and obviously not Switch.

But, what if it is MH? Next year will be the 20th anniversary of MH. What if the next title isn't MH6 but rather a remake or a MH game based on MH1 celebrating the history of MH with updated graphics and gameplay? Remember how on Nvidia leak that leaked insane amount of games which has been correct about 90%? Well on that list was Monster Hunter G.

I don't know about you guys, but I could see this General Direct announce a MH remake/celebrate game with gen 5 gameplay/graphics and on ALL platforms.

Or...I could be wrong but it's fun to speculate lol.


Also, 4 will be a special number in this General Direct: FE4 Remake and MP4

Hmmmm I wasn't thinking of this scenario yet. I think that it's a mix of my hope that a brand new Resident Evil game comes to Switch and the feeling that maybe they make a quick sequel to Rise for Switch/Switch 2 before dropping MH6 made me not even consider a Monster Hunter remake. Would be a pretty big deal imo. Maybe they can do a remakester of one of the favorite MH games in RE Engine? Idk if it's 4 Ultimate or Tri or something.

I always thought a Smash Bros. stage booster pack made sense for NSO

-You wouldn't need to bring back a big development (or Sakurai) to develop new fighters. Stages would require design and testing.
-There are some Smash Wii U and 3DS stages that weren't in Ultimate and so they could more easily be brought over to Ultimate
-More content for Smash Ultimate would of course bolster subs for NSO but also it would get Smash back in the news cycle. Plus, NSO sub owners that don't own Smash Ultimate would now have DLC that they can't use, making them more likely to buy the game

Obviously a new fighter pack would be huge and if it were on NSO, that would be big as well. But if it's not fighters, then I think a stage pack would fit the NSO model well.

I very much like this suggestion too!!
Bringing back everything from Wii U/3DS would make for a way less costly development than introducing new characters and as it's mostly/all Nintendo content they can make all the money and add that to NSO, which probably wouldn't happen with a Fighters Pass with third party characters.

I can see they doing a mix of both, bringing back a lot of stages and adding some first party characters or even doing a Stage Booster Pass with old stages and a new Fighters Pass separately

 

[HockeyBird]

I don't know why Nintendo needs to dedicate a whole Direct to these things

 

[BlackthornOrion]

So just an idea I've been kicking around to try and tie some disparate things together. Probably wildly off base, but ...

With the unnannounced Capcom game, Nintendo allegedly having some involvement in a 3rd party game, and now the Smash amiibo reprints, how would people feel about Nintendo vs Capcom?

 

[lemonfresh]

I don’t see a direct next week anymore. This isn’t how Nintendo rolls with 2 directs in 2 straight weeks. They’ll give it a “breather”.

Pyoro already liked a tweet that said September 13th and @Dragoncaine did analysis from previous years which lined up for September 13th. Pokémon dlc will be shown and announced to release after the direct.

Was anyone even expecting the direct to be around the start of sep? don't think I have seen anyone say that I thought it was always epxected mid sep around tgs

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

RE: Star Fox Zero

The game would've always sold bad as a 2016 Wii U exclusive even if it turned out differently just because whatever audience the Wii U had was already moving on by that late in its life. But if I'm Nintendo I think the bigger disappointment isn't so much the sales but instead the response from fans and critics not liking the game and what that means for the IP's reputation.

Zero should've been the "Star Fox is back!" moment for the series given the amount of marketing push (for a Wii U game) and the names involved like Miyamoto and Platinum Games. Basically at the end of Wii U's life the two biggest games hyped up for the platform by Nintendo were BotW (before it became cross-gen) and SFZ.

Star fox zero will always be a good example of Nintendo being stubborn, complaints about the controls go all the way back to the 2015 tech demo yet they never changed or gave the options for regular controls, it's the third retelling of the same story which no one asked for, and when properly shown off their were consistent complaints about the subpar visuals and despite be delayed half a year they didn't improve from the first trailer

 

[Dark Cloud]

Was anyone even expecting the direct to be around the start of sep? don't think I have seen anyone say that I thought it was always epxected mid sep around tgs

Going by the poll the first full week of September has the second most votes.

 

[Semi Lazy Gamer]

Nintendo the 13th
(screaming)

This got me thinking about possible Directs on Friday the 13th, and the next possible one is September next year, when there's less of a chance to have one depending on when next gen comes out.

The next possible ones after that are June 2025 and February 2026.

 

[Joe]

This year has been very weird for me. I've barely touched my Switch

It's the opposite for me. Between Metroid Prime Remastered, TotK, Pikmin 4, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe DLC, this year is the most I've played my Switch in years. With Wonder and Super Mario RPG on their way, it's bound to get even more playtime from me.

 

[Paraspikey]

Wow, that was an amazing post!! Thank you for the research and findings!!

I've been predicting for awhile that Ultimate would get more content eventually. I don't see a new Smash game coming anytime soon in the Succ's life, and as it'll probably be BC, a port would make little sense, so a patch and a new Fighters Pass seems to be the way to go.

I think we might get as much as a non-announcement as "Sora amiibo will be releasing in spring 2024! And we'd also like to announce that... Fighters Pass 3 is coming!! Stay tuned for more details at a later date" and it has pre-orders opened and on eShop it's detailed 6 characters coming until December 31st 2025(placeholder date).

We get our first character announced at The Game Awards with a teaser trailer like that of Joker, and that one doesn't release until spring 2024. The second character reveal happens at the Switch 2 event/Direct in summer 2024, after the graphical enhancements are detailed and the patch announced, and it's Geno, releasing in Fall 2024 - Super Mario RPG 2 is announced for 2025 in the same event.

Or hey, maybe they go super nuts and have a CGI Geno trailer this Direct already to ride the hype for Wonder and Super Mario RPG, and announce that Smash Ultimate is going to get a new Fighters Pass as a shocking news.

I think Smash might skip the next gen and Ultimate getting two more passes and/or a repackage is what we get, much like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Booster Course Pass for Switch. But maybe they make the next game/reboot a cross gen game or even a final year megaton like TotK and Wonder this year.

I didn't try to speculate much on what the content would be in the post beyond me thinking it could be a Pass 3, though if we get another 5 fighters, that'll line up perfectly with Nintendo's next generation, which is rumored/speculated to release in late H1 - September 2024. (Source)
-
FP12: September reveal, November release (Lines up with restocks)
FP13: TGA/December reveal, December/January release (ArtSwift has said they expect Joker to be a part of the big restock waves, yet they aren't in Wave 1 and 2, which to me implies another third wave by the end of the year with Joker, which will probably be in December)
(Source)
FP14: February reveal, March/April Release (I don't expect a full reveal of Nintendo's next generation until after Nintendo Live 2024, which is Late January; it being the focus of a big February direct makes the most amount of sense to me currently, this would also be the middle character of the pass, aka the "poster boy", meaning it would probably be one of the most mainstream characters like how Banjo was)
FP15: June reveal, June/July release (Just based on past patterns with June reveals)
FP16: September reveal, September/October release (I suspect they would launch a complete edition of Smash Ultimate at launch; launching it alongside the last DLC fighter makes a ton of sense IMO, and would probably need to be a request on the same level as Sora)
-
About Geno, I was just looking into something that could mean something. I'm not sure. It could mean literally nothing, but I think it's interesting enough to share.
When SMRPG was announced, Square Enix didn't acknowledge it at all on their social media pages, despite being in the copyright for SMRPG (Meaning they still own the characters), which really stood out to me. I decided to look back at previous direct software announcements during the Switch era they've promoted, and from what I could find, the only one they didn't promote was Dragon Quest 11 S, when that was announced in the February 13th, 2019 direct.
(Internet Archive of their page on Feb. 15th, 2019)
I first thought that maybe since they didn't publish the game, they wouldn't promote it (They've promoted other stuff they don't have a direct hand in development in, despite the fact they clearly worked on the CGI cutscenes for SMRPG), but they've promoted other stuff that they didn't publish nor develop. The fact this has seemingly only happened once before with DQ11S, something they did fully develop and publish, and they only started promoting it at their E3 2019 show, which was one day before Hero got into Smash at Nintendo's show...
Once again, it could very well not mean anything, though I think since we could very well get something Smash, and now this is happening with SMRPG, things look a bit weird right now, weird enough to make it hard for me to ignore.

 

[Derachi]

Hello! I'm not super sure where this belongs, though since this relates to Nintendo Directs and announcements/releases happening in the near future, I thought this would fit here.
Since late July, I've been looking into Amiibo, Amiibo restocks, and the connections they have to their announcements and reveals, and I wanted to present what I've found so far and what it has related to so I can get some possible feedback on my research (I've mostly been researching this in more closed off Discord communities, so I've been trying to reach out to others without a general bias to see if they think this has much ground).
This is going to be a bit long, though there is a lot to say on the matter. I'll provide a TLDR at the end.

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• On July 25th, there was a massive Greece retailer who listed a bunch of Amiibo restocks happening.
  (Source)

The first 2 waves relate to Smash Brothers, the first wave being on August 28th, and the second wave being on November 10th, Rosalina and Boo (SMB Line) were restocked on August 28th, and Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser, Samus (Metroid Line), Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link I don't have exact dates for, so I'd assume "Fall - Holiday 2023."

This stood out to me. In 2020, there was a Polish Amiibo leak that happened, and all of those restocks pointed to Nintendo announcements being made from May 2020 - February 2021.
These included...
SMB Mario: Restocked in September 2020 (SMB 35th Anniversary)
The Zelda Line: Restocked in September 2020 (Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity's announcement)
The Splatoon Line: Restocked in June 2020 and in February 2021 (Splatoon 2 Support coming back, Splatoon 3's announcement)
Cloud and Cloud P2: Restocked in late September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
Ryu: Restocked in early September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
The Pokemon Smash Line: Restocked in late November 2020 (Sephiroth's Smash reveal)

After remembering this, since the Smash line was getting restocked, I decided to look into the Amiibo restocks I could and see what I connected to, and after digging, I realized that I've looked through most, if not all, of the restocks that has happened since the Switch era, and ALL of them has connected to software announcements and releases.
I wrote a document with all of the restocks I could find.

(When the restocks happen late in the month, when the announcement happens early the next month, I just put "1 month [X]" to make it simpler.)
(The last 2 Animal Crossing ones could also just be them selling off pre-existing stock since I found those on reddit, though both posts were in early April.)
(Some of these are also rough estimates due to the exact date being unavailable and the article only referring to it happening on a specific month.)
After looking at reputable Aliexpress retailer "ArtSwift"'s account, there's a lot more than this that has connected, like Smash restocks being before Sora's reveal and before his release, alongside the Metroid Smash line being restocked alongside Metroid Dread's release.

I think I looked as much as I did due to being in part disbelief that Smash news could be happening soon due to the restocks. But I couldn't find one that wasn't related to an announcement, release, or big push for that specific brand (Mar10 day, which had a Switch Bundle of "Pick 1 out of 3 Mario games" and Bowser with the Mario Movie)
Long story short, all of the Amiibo restocks they've done are related to software announcements and releases related to the line they're restocking. It's a bit of a crazy pattern.
This means all of the restocks they're doing should also connect to stuff.
So, in this same document, I wrote down what can be concluded about the restocks, New Amiibo in general, and what the restocks could be related to.

At first thought, I assumed the Smash restocks needed to be for Nintendo Live, but on their FAQ page, they specifically say that there will be no new product announcements at the event. (Source)
Then I thought Nintendo would announce them on August 28th since that's the date they go on sale. They would have to announce them then to make sure the demand for the Amiibo is there, much like how they announced the Skyward Sword Link restock on June 20th, since that didn't directly connect to a new announcement (though it did connect to TOTK's release) (Source)
But they didn't do that. This follows the pattern of what they normally do to prep up an announcement/release to silent stock stores so there is enough Amiibo stock demand for people who are interested in using them for new software.
These restocks also aren't happening in the Americas, and they have brand new packaging, which specifically excludes the American and Canadian websites. (Source)
This is due to the fact NoA is the global center of marketing for Nintendo since it is Nintendo's biggest financial market. They hold off on having Amiibo restocked in the Americas, specifically when they want to tie it into something.
For 2 examples, they restocked Kirby's Amiibo in Japan a couple of weeks after Super Kirby Clash was announced/released, and they restocked Fire Emblem Amiibos in Australia on December 16th, the day they announced the Engage Expansion Pass at The Game Awards 2022.
(Fire Emblem Source) (Kirby Source)

Of course, despite researching this extensively, I wasn't convinced anything was happening until they didn't announce it yesterday, but today, they announced the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, which directly connects with the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks that happened on the 28th.
To me, this pretty much soft-confirms something Smash-related, software-wise, is going to happen. They've never done restocks specifically for Amiibo announcements, and speaking of which...

• On July 4th, Artswift, the Amiibo retailer I referred to earlier, said that they expect a Sora Amiibo announcement "in the near future."
  (Source)

This is probably the strongest piece of evidence relating to something Smash Brothers happening in this direct, for 5 main reasons.
1. They've never announced new Amiibo on their own during the Switch generation, especially for a 5-year-old game. It has always been announced alongside or shortly after new content, announcement, or release. The only time they've announced an Amiibo unrelated to new content day and date were Marine and Pearl, which...

• It was announced 2 days after the Splatoon 2 Concert that happened in February, which happened on a weekend, which means they couldn't of announced it
• The day after, we got the Splatoon 2 Starter Kit announced
• Not even a month later, we got the Octo Expansion announced on the March 8th Direct.

(This is a good source to find when they've announced a brand new Amiibo.)
2. The Sora Amiibo wasn't announced in the Sora Sakurai presents. If they were planning on just revealing it 2 months after Pyra/Mythra's Amiibo release with nothing tied to it, why not announce it alongside everyone else?
3. The Sora Amiibo code isn't in the game, which means if they randomly announce it, they would have to go back into the game after 2 years and program the Amiibo AI and roll out the update, which isn't an easy task nor is something any company nor developer would willingly do. They updated the game to have Amiibo support from Min Min to Kazuya. If they weren't saving it for something, why not include it? It'll be a waste of resources on Nintendo to do it randomly. Sakurai said the team "disbanded" in October 2021, and they would have to come back together ONLY to patch the game with Sora Amiibo support, something very unlikely if they're not working on a new game, like how they were able to patch Sm4sh to add Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta Amiibo support in 2017 since they were working on Ultimate, which was after they were announced in the December 2015 Smash Presentation, due to them knowing they wouldn't have the chance to announce it sooner.
(Source on Smash Ultimate updates)
4. They've never done restocks for new Amiibo specifically. Sometimes, a release could align with a new Amiibo being announced, though there has never been a case where a game, after being dormant for years, gets a new Amiibo announced with nothing new tied to it.
5. Since Sora would have to have the Smash Ultimate branding, it is very unlikely for it to be announced alongside content for a game that isn't Ultimate.

• There is a lot more that points to something happening, though I would only like to point out a couple more things.

- They restocked the Smash Gamecube controller in Japan. The last time they did this was in January 2020, 3 weeks before Fighters Pass 2's reveal.
(Source for 2023 Restock) (Source for 2020 Restock)
-Smash Amiibo tend to be stocked, on average, 16 days from the restock to their reveal (Fatmanonice's research). 16 days from now would be September 13th, the probable date of the direct.
-The Smash Site updated, seemingly removing the Accessories page that was there (Internet Archive shows it was removed by December 2022 - April 2023)
(What the Smash site looks like since April 2023) (What the Smash site looked like before April 2023)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's DLC is ending in September with its last wave, much like how they announced it the earliest they could after Sora was announced. Nintendo needs to announce DLC with content waves like how they did with Smash and Mario Kart so they can put it on their NSO service.
- Restocks happen in waves ONLY with releases (TOTK, BOTW, Fire Emblem, and Kirby). This means the content the line is for has to be released at some point this year, which means it can't be for a new game or a "port" to a newer generation.

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This is about everything I wanted to share and have possible feedback on. Apologies for the long read, but there is so much here that points to more content for Ultimate being announced in the probable September direct. Even if we don't get anything Smash, it was fun looking into all of this, and at least we have something to use that could relate to new software.

• TLDR:
  Amiibo restocks have historically 99% been related to upcoming Nintendo software announcements or releases. These restocks can not relate to Nintendo Live, and they weren't announced the day they went live, meaning they relate to future announcements and releases.
  Here are the upcoming restocks and what they could relate to:
  -August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [New Content Reveal?] (1 month before reveal?)
  -November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content Release?] (Same month as release?)
  -August 28th: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Mario Wonder Direct]
  -Fall 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [Mario Wonder] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [TOTK DLC/Wind Waker and Twilight Princess] (Could be same month?)
  -Fall 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal] (Could be same month/1 month after?) (Can't be Prime 2 and/or 3 since they don't have Amiibo Functionality)
  
  Sora Amiibo being expected by retailers, the Gamecube controller restocks, and the Smash site updating removing the accessories tab makes me think it's more likely we'll get something Ultimate related than not, and if they want to sell a long-running DLC pass on NSO since MK8's DLC is about to end, a Fighter's Pass 3, and putting Fighter's Pass 1 and 2 on there would be perfect.

This forum doesn’t do Post of the Year awards but if we did I’d nominate this. Great work

Fighters Pass 3 LET’S GOOOOOOOO

 

[Gamer_G]

How the hell did you all start speculating Fighter Pass 3 during the one day in between the announcement and airing of a Mario Wonder Direct

 

[palemire]

And after all
You're my

 

[Derachi]

oh my god you know they’re gonna announce Yakuza 0 and Kiwami are coming to Switch

And that announcement is gonna conclude with Kiryu getting an invite to Smash and THAT’S how they reveal Fighter Pass 3

oh my god

fam I’ll cry if that happens

Spoiler

let me get my hopes up lol

 

[Derachi]

I would buy like 4 Kiryu Amiibo

 

[Cyrus]

How the hell did you all start speculating Fighter Pass 3 during the one day in between the announcement and airing of a Mario Wonder Direct

Time passes differently here in the Nintendo Direct speculation thread

 

[entut1]

How the hell did you all start speculating Fighter Pass 3 during the one day in between the announcement and airing of a Mario Wonder Direct

Somebody has made a pretty solid case for it having at least an ounce of chance to happen

 

[Gamer_G]

Somebody has made a pretty solid case for it having at least an ounce of chance to happen

Understandable, we all have a Smash addiction, remember when people immediately jumped on Smash Switch a mere 6 months after 4's DLC concluded? Of we couldn't last 2 years after they released the final fighter without speculating that there's actually 6 more lmaoooo