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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Dark Cloud said:
That makes no sense. These people so caught up in some fantasy instead of reality. Nintendo isn’t launching the next gen system with Metroid Prime 4 over 3D Mario ffs
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I mean, it could launch a month later at the earliest.
 
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D36 said:
I'm not that far into the video and I'm already disagreeing with him? The Switch 2 won't happen and will fail????? BRUH
I'll keep watching and see if I can stomach it enough to form a better opinion.
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I watched the whole thing and it’s about what I expected so that was my time wasted lol.
 
The Switch launched with Zelda in early march then late April brought in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Is there any reason why They can't launch with 3D Mario and then the month after launch MP4? So much 1 or the other here. Launch windows can have tight placement of titles. You're trying to keep initial interest high after all.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
The Switch launched with Zelda in early march then late April brought in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Is there any reason why They can't launch with 3D Mario and then the month after launch MP4? So much 1 or the other here. Launch windows can have tight placement of titles. You're trying to keep initial interest high after all.
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since MP4 would be for Switch as well, I think they would want to have it out first and have another game that isn't Mario as a headliner
 
oldpuck said:
That just leaves the Opacity Micromap and MicroMesh engines. One of these is laying the ground work for a fully path traced future which no 9th gen console is going to be able to reach, and the other accelerates specific edge cases in RT workloads that I suspect are out of REDACTED's reach 99.9% of the time anyway.
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I wouldn't rule out micro-meshes for Drake (conceptually). the way Nvidia talks about it, it's more of an alternative to things like Nanite. they're not going to implement it into NVRTX branch of UE5 because Nanite exists already. same reason why they're not going to update RTXGI 1.0 for UE5, because Lumen, essentially, does the same thing. DMM is more for studios that don't have a nanite-like solution or want one that can work in conjunction with mesh shaders and hardware acceleration
 
D36 said:
Yeah, but it'd be a safe assumption, right? At least for Prime 4, whatever the next big Mario is gonna be and whether or not it'll be cross-gen is still up in the air, imo.
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I don't think it is. The development timelines between the restarted version of Metroid Prime 4 and 3D Mario should mostly overlap, which would imply both are either cross gen or both are exclusive to the successor device. The only potential evidence I can think of is Prime 4's announcement (vs. a new 3D Mario's lack of), and I don't believe that implies anything since that announcement was a mistake that Nintendo has had to stick with. And Prime 4 has been mentioned so little since 2019 that Nintendo can effectively make it exclusive for the next console and it wouldn't change much in terms of marketing.
 
D36 said:
Yeah, but it'd be a safe assumption, right? At least for Prime 4, whatever the next big Mario is gonna be and whether or not it'll be cross-gen is still up in the air, imo.
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MP4 being a cross-gen title heavily relies on when they want to launch each. MP4 will always be a Switch game so they don't really have to care about hitting Drake launch
 
As much as I want to keep watching that video for a more informed opinion on it, I don't think I can go through it without my eyes rolling over the back of my head. The few arguments that I saw just seem to lack nuance and are made in bad faith, even going over stuff that was already debunked in this thread. And the comments, oh GOD the comments! It seems like people genuinely believe that Nintendo's next system won't take after the Switch form factor and will fail if it did otherwise because the Wii U was a sequel and it failed or how the SNES underperformed. Maybe he makes some more convincing arguments, but i dunno, man; felt like I was in a Bizzaro dimension reading those comments. Maybe I've made a bubble for myself by staying in this thread for so long, but still. If any of y'all have watched the video to its completion, feel free to tell me how crazy/right I was, cuz I just can't do it.......
 
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carbonaxiom said:
I don't think it is. The development timelines between the restarted version of Metroid Prime 4 and 3D Mario should mostly overlap, which would imply both are either cross gen or both are exclusive to the successor device. The only potential evidence I can think of is Prime 4's announcement (vs. a new 3D Mario's lack of), and I don't believe that implies anything since that announcement was a mistake that Nintendo has had to stick with. And Prime 4 has been mentioned so little since 2019 that Nintendo can effectively make it exclusive for the next console and it wouldn't change much in terms of marketing.
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I don't think Prime 4 is a Drake exclusive. Regardless of how long it was, Nintendo aren't just gonna burn Switch owners who've been anticipating this game like that. This ain't Halo Infinite.
 
kvetcha said:
Feels like you’re using ‘consensus’ a bit liberally
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Sorry 😅 I meant it like: the general opinion
Not as a “matter of fact”

—————

My two cents about the Switch form factor:
What’s the problem? Why can it not be used for posterity? Why can’t the Switch be Nintendo’s PlayStation? Sony has five PlayStation consoles. Why can’t Nintendo have a second Switch? And another one? The Switch form factor is perfect and is backed up by a vast library of first party properties, both made by Nintendo and 3rd parties.

Does the Switch need a gimmick? No. Why can it not ride on the portable, home console experience tag? “It’s getting old”? Sony constantly giving a more powerful machine isn’t getting old.

Whatever gimmick Nintendo wants to give the Switch, they can do it via accessories (as they’ve done).
 
D36 said:
I don't think Prime 4 is a Drake exclusive. Regardless of how long it was, Nintendo aren't just gonna burn Switch owners who've been anticipating this game like that. This ain't Halo Infinite.
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That might be where my fundamental disagreement here is. I do think they would do that if they thought the game would serve well as a long term technical showcase for Drake, which would also help boost the game's sales. I think it's established that the current hardcore audience for Metroid isn't as big as many of Nintendo's other franchises, and a significant portion of those people would probably go out of their way to buy the new console for the new Metroid Prime game.

Of course, this is ultimately all hypothetical, but I don't think the position that Prime 4 must have been developed for Switch and not Drake is any less hypothetical.
 
Quoted by: D36
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I really don’t think Prime 4 for launch is a safe assumption at all. We know it’s a Switch game, that’s it. We also have no idea what else Nintendo is cooking.

Edit: And no, they aren’t going to make it Switch 2 exclusive. It was announced for Switch ages ago, and that’s not changing. It would be an absolute shit move for current owners. At best it’s greatly enhanced on the new platform later down the line.
 
Dark Cloud said:
That makes no sense. These people so caught up in some fantasy instead of reality. Nintendo isn’t launching the next gen system with Metroid Prime 4 over 3D Mario ffs
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Mario will sell well anyway, and Switch 2 will also sell well with or without a big game launch, this is the chance to get Metroid into the mainstream again.
 
carbonaxiom said:
That might be where my fundamental disagreement here is. I do think they would do that if they thought the game would serve well as a long term technical showcase for Drake, which would also help boost the game's sales. I think it's established that the current hardcore audience for Metroid isn't as big as many of Nintendo's other franchises, and a significant portion of those people would probably go out of their way to buy the new console for the new Metroid Prime game.

Of course, this is ultimately all hypothetical, but I don't think the position that Prime 4 must have been developed for Switch and not Drake is any less hypothetical.
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That might be true, but how many are willing to shell out for what many of us assume to be a premium system, even if both Drake and Prime 4 release during the holidays (albeit one month apart at most)? I think you can advertise it's improvements on new hardware while still having it on the system that it was initially promised for.
 
D36 said:
That might be true, but how many are willing to shell out for what many of us assume to be a premium system, even if both Drake and Prime 4 release during the holidays (albeit one month apart at most)? I think you can advertise it's improvements on new hardware while still having it on the system that it was initially promised for.
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This is all true. My point is that we just don't know. In fact, we know almost as little about Metroid Prime 4 as we do about the 3D Mario game that we assume must be in development. The assumption is that it must be a Switch game because it was announced in 2019, but we don't know if Nintendo would have held back on ever announcing the game if the first iteration from 2017 had never been announced.

And if in 2019/2020, the decision was between committing to making the game for the original Switch vs. designing it for the successor device, then it's also not clear that Nintendo wouldn't have chosen the latter. Precisely because this is Metroid, the backlash to making such a move would not be as significant as it would be if they did that with, say, Zelda.
 
Quoted by: D36
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carbonaxiom said:
This is all true. My point is that we just don't know. In fact, we know almost as little about Metroid Prime 4 as we do about the 3D Mario game that we assume must be in development. The assumption is that it must be a Switch game because it was announced in 2019, but we don't know if Nintendo would have held back on ever announcing the game if the first iteration from 2017 had never been announced.

And if in 2019/2020, the decision was between committing to making the game for the original Switch vs. designing it for the successor device, then it's also not clear that Nintendo wouldn't have chosen the latter. Precisely because this is Metroid, the backlash to making such a move would not be as significant as it would be if they did that with, say, Zelda.
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I get that, but I don't think a series like Metroid could even afford to be an exclusive without relying on a huge install base that might not readily commit to upgrading. That would be kneecapping what little sales potential it would have had.
 
D36 said:
I get that, but I don't think a series like Metroid could even afford to be an exclusive without relying on a huge install base that might not readily commit to upgrading. That would be kneecapping what little sales potential it would have had.
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That I'm not sure of. It all depends on what kind of game Prime 4 is. The fundamental question here is why no Metroid game has ever sold well (relative to Nintendo's other big franchises). I don't have the answer to that.

But because the franchise is where it is, it also leaves room to set up Prime 4 as a game that new people to the franchise can jump into without having played previous games (I expect the 4 to be dropped from the official title if this is the case). While there are no guarantees, this is one possible way to try to break through previous sales ceilings, and in such a scenario, the cross gen aspect wouldn't be as important as making the game as presentable as possible, which could also mean making the game a successor exclusive.

It'll be interesting to see what they end up doing with the game.
 
Quoted by: D36
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carbonaxiom said:
That I'm not sure of. It all depends on what kind of game Prime 4 is. The fundamental question here is why no Metroid game has ever sold well (relative to Nintendo's other big franchises). I don't have the answer to that.

But because the franchise is where it is, it also leaves room to set up Prime 4 as a game that new people to the franchise can jump into without having played previous games (I expect the 4 to be dropped from the official title if this is the case). While there are no guarantees, this is one possible way to try to break through previous sales ceilings, and in such a scenario, the cross gen aspect wouldn't be as important as making the game as presentable as possible, which could also mean making the game a successor exclusive.

It'll be interesting to see what they end up doing with the game.
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Fair enough. I just feel like making it exclusive is too great of a risk, when having it on Switch can at least give it more than Dread's numbers. Plus, with Remastered, I can trust Retro to make it look as presentable as possible on dated hardware (even if Prime 4 isn't cross-gen, I can see it getting patched to look better on Drake).
 
Dark Cloud said:
That makes no sense. These people so caught up in some fantasy instead of reality. Nintendo isn’t launching the next gen system with Metroid Prime 4 over 3D Mario ffs
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They did once launch with the big game being a Mario spinoff where Luigi couldn't even jump. Even though Metroid is a relatively niche series, I can imagine a scenario where being pretty and being ready were enough, especially if a system's SOC was its biggest difference from its predecessor. Luigi's Mansion at least had its excuse of "Here's our way of easing people into two sticks".
 
JorgenRaft said:
I don't know why the next Switch launching with a 3D Mario would be such a sure thing when that's only ever happened once.

Seems that usually comes around 6-12 months after their consoles launches.
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I think it would be better to say that most Nintendo systems launched with a Mario game, which would be true. A 3D Mario would be the perfect launch title to showcase what the new system would be capable of. Of course, that doesn't discount other candidates, but as it stands: TotK is right around the corner, so that's out, Switch Sports came out last year, so I doubt we'd get a sequel that quickly, and other launch games like a Nintendogs probably wouldn't do well on their own without being a companion. Honestly, the only other option I can think of is a new IP; one tailor made for Drake. Or just launch with a sequel to Ring Fit, that game did stupidly well.
 
Announcing a game for a platform then changing it is extremely frowned upon. MP4 will be a Switch game. Nintendo wouldn't have announced the reboot going to Retro after all that time to then have to do a second reversal and say the game wont release on the announced platform.

It's not logical. A game that isn't announced doesn't have a target platform. A game that is does and going back on it is a huge breach of consumer trust.
 
JorgenRaft said:
I don't know why the next Switch launching with a 3D Mario would be such a sure thing when that's only ever happened once.

Seems that usually comes around 6-12 months after their consoles launches.
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It’s not just because it’s a nice game to launch with Switch, but also because the development team in charge of 3D Mario hasn’t done anything since Oddyssey, so the theory is that they’re making a new 3D Mario, and in the veins of Bowser’s Fury
 
ziggyrivers said:
It’s not just because it’s a nice game to launch with Switch, but also because the development team in charge of 3D Mario hasn’t done anything since Oddyssey, so the theory is that they’re making a new 3D Mario, and in the veins of Bowser’s Fury
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Oh they are for sure working on something, there's no doubt about that. I was just saying it doesn't have to launch with the next system and that Mario typically comes a few months after.

There's also the whole Donkey Kong mystery going on which they may be involved in as well.
 
JorgenRaft said:
Oh they are for sure working on something, there's no doubt about that. I was just saying it doesn't have to launch with the next system and that Mario typically comes a few months after.

There's also the whole Donkey Kong mystery going on which they may be involved in as well.
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I think when “launch titles” are discussed here they mean games released within several months of new hardware release.
E.g. MK8D is often considered a switch launch title.
 
Erika said:
I think when “launch titles” are discussed here they mean games released within several months of new hardware release.
E.g. MK8D is often considered a switch launch title.
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For sure, but I think the context of the discussion above when comparing it to MP4 was implying to it as launch day.
 
I'm really surprised to see the discussions about MP4 being a Drake exclusive. That is one thing we can actually completely rule out. It was announced as a Switch game and the Switch sold incredibly well. So in my mind, it's a Switch title till further notice.

Whether or not it launches with Drake is mere speculation and I don't rule that out, however.

Keep in mind "launch window" is used pretty liberally by Nintendo and the other console manufacturers/publishers if we're being honest. From what I remember, the launch window can mean 6-8 months from the device launch. So an MP4 Drake port isn't crazy or hard to believe. It's really just a matter of when the game releases and when the console releases. I do not think whether or not Metroid is a huge system seller is much of a factor here.

The more games on Drake to show off the new tech and improvements, the better. BoTW on Switch was really a "holy shit I can play this game on the go" moment. I feel like MP4 at 4k 60fps would be a great sell on top of a much improved portable experience as well.

3D Mario is most certainly undergoing development. Idk what to expect but I am going to say 12 to 24 months out from the new hardware release. Obviously, I'd love for it to be sooner but I am not holding my breath lol.
 
Erika said:
I think when “launch titles” are discussed here they mean games released within several months of new hardware release.
E.g. MK8D is often considered a switch launch title.
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I often see launch title as “game the system launched with as the headliner”

While anything else that also isn’t the same day is, to me, Launch Window (approx 1 year).

So the launch title for the switch is BOTW, the launch window games are MK8 and Mario Odyssey for example.

First year is a crucial moment as it can make or break a platform, but other years are important too if they can can build upon it or if the first year wasn’t as great. Not bad just not as great as they had hoped. So the second year can be a “backup” year in a sense.
 
Z0m3le said:
I think the bigger issue is the Odyssey team should be ready to reveal their next big Mario game, Miyamoto has already stated that we will see Mario in an upcoming direct, and that Drake not getting botw sequel, means that Mario is almost certainly the launch title, also it's likely that totk patch via DLC will probably be there for Drake, likely coming in the first 12 months of totk's release. Then the only insider to leak real information and tying it into Switch 2 info, is the Pokemon dev who said the Drake patch for pokemon is coming this winter. I'd place the end of winter for Nintendo at March 1st 2024, which is a friday, but the pokemon patch can come AFTER Switch 2's launch, and doesn't have to be that far into "winter". It's also known that Drake is physically complete, and is publically still being worked on via Linux patch notes, so we know it was never canceled.

Thraktor's discovery of expensive circuitry in Switch OLED model, only done to allow 4K output, along with Mariko's known higher clocks (650GFLOPs, near double CPU speed) was most likely the "pro" that was canceled, as you and I both heard about it way back in 2019? and we knew something had been in the works for years at that point, which we know Drake's origins is late 2019/2020 from the Nvidia hack, it doesn't fit with the original Pro information we had both heard about, so tying the canceled project to Drake is a fools errand IMO.

Drake as far as we know is ready for mass production, almost certainly launching with a Mario game, and now you have Metroid Prime 4 estimated out by the end of this FY, but possibly late by a few months. We've also clearly seen that Switch has peaked and been in decline for 3 years straight now, there is no reason for Nintendo to delay Drake that we are aware of, and as many of us have brought up, Nintendo has nothing scheduled publically after July, and only 1 known title after that, with a Direct in June, I don't see how they avoid announcing a bunch of titles, and they are very clearly avoiding the 2H of this year, releasing games with built in million seller audiences with no fan fare or marketing push, like Metroid Prime being a shadow drop or XBC3 DLC having a week from announced date to release. Why anyone without inside knowledge of Nintendo's reasoning/release schedule for Drake, would believe that it is coming any later than this FY, is far beyond me. It's also just not surprising that it would come in 2023, 3 years after Ampere and A78 hit the market, that is the same time frame as Maxwell in the Switch.

Anyways, you'll likely be pleasantly surprised, hope you enjoy the summer direct, as I'm confident (via speculation and some insider chatter saying they have heard it is this year) that the summer direct will have Mario shown off for the new generation hardware and we will see it launch this FY, likely this calendar year to fully take advantage of the Mario movie and the cleared calendar Nintendo has opened up for new games that haven't been announced for this holiday.
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