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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I don't see how this correlates to TotK looking bad. Yes, the hardware is outdated, but that doesn't mean games can't be optimized on said hardware (not to mention YouTube compression can be horrendous). That article just seems moot and incendiary.
I guess I'm not good at sarcasm. I think the article mixes apples with oranges, and the claim that the Switch was outdated hardware in 2017 is absurd since there simply wasn't an equivalent offering on the market in 2017.
 
16GB of RAM with only 10 GB for games and 2GB for OS. Yeah, the math doesn't add up there lol.
It's not the biggest red flag. Could just be a devkit vs retail thing, with the extra 4GB being for debug. The amount of RAM that will be available on retail devices would be something devs would be aware of, even if it's potentially subject to change.

Not saying I think the post is necessarily trustworthy, just that those numbers aren't inherently suspicious.
 
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It's an interesting proposition, though I don't know how easy it would be to get that to work in practice. One of the properties of emulation is that the software does not know it is actually being run on a different device, but of course that doesn't prelude the possibility that you could have nascent features in there that Activate based on an OS check of some kind. It does mean you have to have a complete and separate rendering pipeline bolted onto the game, so it would require per-game manipulation, which kind of hampers the use case of software emulation versus porting.
Well, it all comes down to cost, really. Assuming [REDACTED] is backwards-compatible, then I fully expect it to fall back on a software-based solution at some point. Whether that's at launch, or years after. I assume that hardware-based BC will become expensive to keep including in every new unit as the years go on, whereas software emulation is basically a one-time cost.

I'd be happy enough if they just emulated Switch games to the best of the Switch's ability - i.e. 1080p 60fps with good post-process anti-alising - and then for select, specific games, they release a patch to add DLSS and perhaps a few other enhancements. Hardware or software, they'd need to update them anyway, even if they just want to increase resolution or framerate targets.


I'd say that the most likely scenario is that [REDACTED] runs most Switch games at 1080p with a few games recieving a boost to 60fps, and even fewer recieving a full next-gen update that could be anything from as little as a resolution increase, to something more expansive like updated textures and assets.
 
I guess I'm not good at sarcasm. I think the article mixes apples with oranges, and the claim that the Switch was outdated hardware in 2017 is absurd since there simply wasn't an equivalent offering on the market in 2017.
God damnit, I hardly even read the part about other hybrid consoles! 🤦‍♂️ My fault, I am TERRIBLE at reading sarcasm, especially through text.
 
I don't see how this correlates to TotK looking bad. Yes, the hardware is outdated, but that doesn't mean games can't be optimized on said hardware (not to mention YouTube compression can be horrendous). That article just seems moot and incendiary.
The video capture was simply not good to begin with and YouTube made it even worse. When you compare the video capture quality compared to other trailers for TotK on YouTube, its noticeably worse. Nintendo deserves some grief for this. They didn't put this 10 minute gameplay video in position to really shine. Even the video quality on the Switch News Page is sub par. Maybe a bit better than on YouTube, but still bad.
 
Hypothetically, if a compression algorithm was called HLZ, my guess is it stands for Hierarchical Lempel-Ziv. Almost all common lossless compression algorithms are based on Lempel-Ziv (and many of them have LZ in their name), and a hierarchical implementation that explicitly accounts for the block structure of texture data would make some degree of sense for a games console.

Again, I think this is almost certainly fake, but whoever made it up has at least put in a little bit of homework, and avoided common mistakes like pretending to know about every title Nintendo has in development, so I'm giving it a bit more time than I probably should. It's likely that they just searched for compression algorithms, found most of them contain the letters LZ, and just added a random letter on the start that I'm over-analysing.
Huffman coding is a common principle in information theory and in compression, and is a predecessor to the run length encoding scheme of Lempel-Ziv. In bioinformatics there are both Huffman-Lempel-Ziv variants and Hybrid-Lempel-Ziv which are referred to as HLZ. My understanding is that both are bespoke variants designed to make random access across compressed data (absolutely necessary when you're talking petabytes of genetic data) faster.
 
Ahh, that's probably what it was. Yeah, that all makes sense now.

Maybe I'm just backseating here, but it actually seems quite inefficient to have DLSS take the same amount of time regardless of image detail. I wonder if Nintendo could have their own version of DLSS that only identifies specific areas of the image where upscaling would be most noticeable? Like only applying the upscaling to distant scenery or areas of high-frequency detail - something like Variable Rate Shading but for DLSS?

While it's probably technically possible, my guess is that the overhead of such a scheme might exceed the benefit. I'd also say that, when developers are concerned about working within a fixed frame time they'd probably prefer a consistent solution over one that may have a lower average execution time, but more variability.

This is almost definitely what we're getting. The BCM4356 in the current Switch is retired. Broadcom kept it around for a long time only because it happened to be significantly lower power draw than their other chips, but they've finally moved over to this Ultra Lower Power device.

No Wifi6, as that isn't supported. BT 5, but aptX Low Latency isn't hardware, it's software, a codec from Qualcomm. What Nintendo chooses to license for it's BT audio codec is up in the air.

The BCM43013 would be pretty surprising, as it's a significant downgrade. It only supports one stream of 802.11n at 72Mbps (so not even WiFi 5, let alone 6), whereas the old chip supported dual-stream 802.11ac (WiFi 5, by modern branding). Nintendo aren't getting the most out of the chip, but a quick check on my router shows that it is using a dual-stream connection, with speeds in my case topping out at 173Mbps. A speed check on the Switch itself shows 82Mbps downloads, which would mean slower downloads on the new system even if Nintendo's CDN doesn't improve.

The BCM43013 appears to be aimed at wearables, where data rates are unlikely to go beyond the low single-digit Mbps and batteries are tiny. I'd guess Nintendo will use whatever the baseline dual-band option is, which appears to be the BCM4375 at the moment.
 
I guess I'm not good at sarcasm. I think the article mixes apples with oranges, and the claim that the Switch was outdated hardware in 2017 is absurd since there simply wasn't an equivalent offering on the market in 2017.

Lol I'm stupid sorry
 
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I asked elsewhere but I'll ask here too, when do you all think it'd be too late for the Switch 2 announcement/release? Would early 2025 be too late?
Holiday 2024 is too late. Given their software release schedule and how bad the original switch hardware is in 2024.
 
What do people think is more likely

1. 2x4GB of RAM vs 2x6GB of RAM
2. LPDDR5 or LPDDR5X

Give your answer for if the Switch 2 launches Q4 2023 and if your answer changes if you know the Switch 2 is launching Q4 2024.
2x6GB LPDDR5

Three words:

Availability, availability, availability.

6GB low to mid range phones and 12GB mid to high end phones are so, so common because 6GB modules of LPDDR5 are so available (and have been for a few years).
 
Huffman coding is a common principle in information theory and in compression, and is a predecessor to the run length encoding scheme of Lempel-Ziv. In bioinformatics there are both Huffman-Lempel-Ziv variants and Hybrid-Lempel-Ziv which are referred to as HLZ. My understanding is that both are bespoke variants designed to make random access across compressed data (absolutely necessary when you're talking petabytes of genetic data) faster.
I had considered Huffman, but I don't think Huffman Lempel-Ziv would be a particularly good name in this case, as many alternative general-purpose compression algorithms (eg DEFLATE) already combine Lempel-Ziv with a Huffman-based entropy coding. My mind just went to "hierarchical" as texture data is hierarchical in a sense (texture -> block -> shape/colour data), and rearranging or working within that hierarchy may lead to more efficient encoding, for example encoding colour data for the entire texture separately from shape data. As I said, though, I'm probably just over-analysing a random letter someone picked, so it's probably not worth putting that much thought into.
 
I'd say that the most likely scenario is that [REDACTED] runs most Switch games at 1080p with a few games recieving a boost to 60fps, and even fewer recieving a full next-gen update that could be anything from as little as a resolution increase, to something more expansive like updated textures and assets.
The most likely scenario is that any game without a specific next-gen patch will run at whatever resolution/frame rate limits it was programmed to for base Switch. If they were (or at some point in the future) doing software emulation that allowed them to ignore those resolution settings, 1080p wouldn't be a limit either.
 
The most likely scenario is that any game without a specific next-gen patch will run at whatever resolution/frame rate limits it was programmed to for base Switch. If they were (or at some point in the future) doing software emulation that allowed them to ignore those resolution settings, 1080p wouldn't be a limit either.

Unless every Switch game needs to be patched for the Switch 2 for different shader compilations and so maybe you could just do a couple adjustments anyway.
 
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The most likely scenario is that any game without a specific next-gen patch will run at whatever resolution/frame rate limits it was programmed to for base Switch. If they were (or at some point in the future) doing software emulation that allowed them to ignore those resolution settings, 1080p wouldn't be a limit either.
Software emulation is taxing, though. Assuming it'll be about on the level of the Steam Deck, I doubt even Nintendo themselves could write a Switch emulator optimised enough to push beyond 1080p at full speed.
 
Releasing after November 2024 enters into "ha ha, what the fuck?" territory.

I wouldn't really understand it at all as the Switch is clearly declining.

It really would be a historically bad decision. We have seen before how a very successful Nintendo console go from selling very well to selling very little, and there is no momentum left to carry into the next console. The impossible Switch ports are about dead and over with. Any big AAA games that haven't already been ported to Switch probably wont be, and third parties will just wait for Nintendo to put out more capable hardware. Software support outside of the Indies and simpler JRPG's are drying up. Even if Nintendo can maintain monthly releases of first party titles, I don't know how long that can keep bolstering sales. Consumer fatigue sets in as well. People who bought a Switch in 2017 are more and more likely to start looking for an upgrade elsewhere if Nintendo isn't going to offer one. For every new Switch Nintendo sells in 2023, there is probably a user from years past who grew tired of it and moved on to another platform. Nintendo is right at the critical period where their current generation console is starting to decline, and in all likelihood will decline pretty hard, and they have opportunity to reinvigorate appeal of the Switch with new more powerful hardware that gets AAA third party titles flowing to the platform again.
 
The BCM43013 would be pretty surprising, as it's a significant downgrade. It only supports one stream of 802.11n at 72Mbps (so not even WiFi 5, let alone 6), whereas the old chip supported dual-stream 802.11ac (WiFi 5, by modern branding). Nintendo aren't getting the most out of the chip, but a quick check on my router shows that it is using a dual-stream connection, with speeds in my case topping out at 173Mbps. A speed check on the Switch itself shows 82Mbps downloads, which would mean slower downloads on the new system even if Nintendo's CDN doesn't improve.
My mistake, I thought 4356 was single channel, from reading spec sheets. You're correct on BCM4375 likely being the better option
 
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What do people think is more likely

1. 2x4GB of RAM vs 2x6GB of RAM

It has to be 12 GB of RAM, right? 8 GB of RAM means the OS gets 1 and developers for the next 7+ years get around 7 GB to work with.

It reminds me of that speech Mark Cerny gave when he was talking about the development of the PS4. He said he was going around and talking to devs and gathering input, and was told multiple times that if the PS4 launched with 4 GB of RAM, it would be "DOA". So apparently Sony scrambled at the last minute and put 8 GB of RAM in the system.

I feel like that's the case here. A system coming out with 7 GB of usable RAM in 2024 is just a non-starter. And I know the Series S gives devs access to about 8.5 GB of RAM, but the Series S also has a 2.4 GB/s NVME drive to more quickly move data in and out of RAM, along with other techniques to reduce RAM usage. And even then it's still a problem on Series S.

The Switch 2 will be working with slower RAM and a slower I/O solution than the Series S. It absolutely needs 2x6 GB of RAM - 2 GB for the OS, 10 GB available for developers.
 
We have seen before how a very successful Nintendo console go from selling very well to selling very little, and there is no momentum left to carry into the next console.
I'm not praying for Nintendo's downfall, but I'd be lying if I said I would be upset if this happened again with [REDACTED]. Nintendo are at their most creative and most consumer friendly when they have to actually try, and can't just coast on free money.
 
What do people think is more likely

1. 2x4GB of RAM vs 2x6GB of RAM
2. LPDDR5 or LPDDR5X

Give your answer for if the Switch 2 launches Q4 2023 and if your answer changes if you know the Switch 2 is launching Q4 2024.
It’ll likely be 2x6GB of RAM of LPDDR5 as it would be “cheaper” in the long run considering that in the mobile space, 6GB of RAM as a simple Module isn’t uncommon and will be long lived especially by Apple product standards.


4GB will likely be short lived.

Also, people focus more on LPDDr5X and not LPDDR5T :p

I still think it’s 5, not 5X. But the most ideal scenario is of course 5T for I think >150GB/s memory bandwidth. I think, I could be mistaken of course and read it wrong.
 
2 GB for the OS, 10 GB available for developers.
It's also worth mentioning that the original BotW unloaded the Wii U OS to get access to the 1GB of RAM that it used. We could see something similar again, where super-heavy games are allowed to either fully or partially unload the OS to get more than 10GB of RAM.
 
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Software emulation is taxing, though. Assuming it'll be about on the level of the Steam Deck, I doubt even Nintendo themselves could write a Switch emulator optimised enough to push beyond 1080p at full speed.
It would not be hard at all. Running an emulator one piece of specific hardware that only runs on a one other specific piece of hardware with an almost identical architecture is a very different problem from writing an emulator that runs on lots of hardware that is a very different architecture.

Yuzu running on Steam Deck needs to emulate 4 ARM CPUs on top of 4 x86 CPUs. ARM code needs to be captured, compiled to new x86 code, and executed at the same speed that, on Switch, the ARM code natively runs. On REDACTED, you're already on an ARM machine, so the code just... runs.

On Yuzu, this x86 code need to be patched whenever it attempts to call OS services on Switch, with references to new, emulated OS services on SteamOS. Except it's not even emulated OS services on SteamOS, its generic emulated OS services designed to run anywhere Yuzu might run. On REDACTED, they just... call the OS service in the real OS. Maybe a middleware layer for translation, but no need to emulate the OS.

On Yuzu, all Nvidia Switch driver calls need to be captured and translated into AMD driver calls on SteamOS, but again, it needs to be done in a generic way that supports every possible graphics driver Yuzu might run on. REDACTED just needs to capture one set of Nvidia Switch driver calls, lightly edit them to run on the new Nvidia Switch driver, and pass them along.

On Yuzu, every shader that runs on the GPU needs to be captured, decompiled into something called an Intermediate Representation, the Intermediate Representation is compiled in a second Shader Programming language, which depends on which GPU you are using at the time, then recompile that generated shader code. On REDACTED, the shader code can skip those middle two steps and use an ultra faster translator that just updated Nvidia shadercode from version 7.5 to 8.8.

Yuzu is solving a totally different problem from a Switch emulator running on REDACTED, and is doing it while reverse engineering the Switch environment. Nintendo/Nvidia writing a Switch emulator for T239 that could outperform the original Switch by 100-200% isn't trivial exactly, but it's not rocket science.
 
Nintendo/Nvidia writing a Switch emulator for T239 that could outperform the original Switch by 100-200% isn't trivial exactly, but it's not rocket science.
It depends on which of the Big N's makes it, though. NVIDIA? Obviously. Nintendo? Not so obviously. Nintendo are yet to write an emulator that outclasses PC emulators from the 90's, so I wouldn't count on them being able to achieve better-than-native performance.

I didn't really consider the fact that [REDACTED] could be so architecturally similar to the Switch that it would be closer to simulation than emulation, though, so in that context, yeah, it seems much more achieveable to go beyond 1080p.
 
It depends on which of the Big N's makes it, though. NVIDIA? Obviously. Nintendo? Not so obviously. Nintendo are yet to write an emulator that outclasses PC emulators from the 90's, so I wouldn't count on them being able to achieve better-than-native performance.

Ouch... You're not wrong, but ouch....
 
It would not be hard at all. Running an emulator one piece of specific hardware that only runs on a one other specific piece of hardware with an almost identical architecture is a very different problem from writing an emulator that runs on lots of hardware that is a very different architecture.

Yuzu running on Steam Deck needs to emulate 4 ARM CPUs on top of 4 x86 CPUs. ARM code needs to be captured, compiled to new x86 code, and executed at the same speed that, on Switch, the ARM code natively runs. On REDACTED, you're already on an ARM machine, so the code just... runs.

On Yuzu, this x86 code need to be patched whenever it attempts to call OS services on Switch, with references to new, emulated OS services on SteamOS. Except it's not even emulated OS services on SteamOS, its generic emulated OS services designed to run anywhere Yuzu might run. On REDACTED, they just... call the OS service in the real OS. Maybe a middleware layer for translation, but no need to emulate the OS.

On Yuzu, all Nvidia Switch driver calls need to be captured and translated into AMD driver calls on SteamOS, but again, it needs to be done in a generic way that supports every possible graphics driver Yuzu might run on. REDACTED just needs to capture one set of Nvidia Switch driver calls, lightly edit them to run on the new Nvidia Switch driver, and pass them along.

On Yuzu, every shader that runs on the GPU needs to be captured, decompiled into something called an Intermediate Representation, the Intermediate Representation is compiled in a second Shader Programming language, which depends on which GPU you are using at the time, then recompile that generated shader code. On REDACTED, the shader code can skip those middle two steps and use an ultra faster translator that just updated Nvidia shadercode from version 7.5 to 8.8.

Yuzu is solving a totally different problem from a Switch emulator running on REDACTED, and is doing it while reverse engineering the Switch environment. Nintendo/Nvidia writing a Switch emulator for T239 that could outperform the original Switch by 100-200% isn't trivial exactly, but it's not rocket science.
My baseline for the backwards compatibility is just that it functions without flaws or shader compilation stutters.

The higher end of my hopes would probably be for unpatched games to have a boost mode for steadier framerates and better dynamic resolutions, and for games to use their TV Mode resolution in handheld mode. While patched games could increase the resolution, maybe significantly.
 
I asked elsewhere but I'll ask here too, when do you all think it'd be too late for the Switch 2 announcement/release? Would early 2025 be too late?
Summer 2024 or later would be pessimistic. Most realistically optimistic is that nintendo announces in June/July 2023 and releases in Nov 2023. I'm leaning towards October 2023 announcement and March/April 2024 release similar to what they did with the switch.
 
It depends on which of the Big N's makes it, though. NVIDIA? Obviously. Nintendo? Not so obviously. Nintendo are yet to write an emulator that outclasses PC emulators from the 90's, so I wouldn't count on them being able to achieve better-than-native performance.
wat
 
It’ll likely be 2x6GB of RAM of LPDDR5 as it would be “cheaper” in the long run considering that in the mobile space, 6GB of RAM as a simple Module isn’t uncommon and will be long lived especially by Apple product standards.


4GB will likely be short lived.

Also, people focus more on LPDDr5X and not LPDDR5T :p

I still think it’s 5, not 5X. But the most ideal scenario is of course 5T for I think >150GB/s memory bandwidth. I think, I could be mistaken of course and read it wrong.
We are getting 8GB LPDDR4X and we are going to have to like it! Hmph :mad:
 
Last week I was at the GDC, and I’m now just catching up on things. No, I amn’t in the game industry, but someone hooked me up with a pass. For professional reasons (don’t ask) I mainly went to product monetization talks and missed the fun sessions such as ray tracing and temporal upscaling.

Just skimming through the thread, there were quite some fireworks this past week. Ignoring the discourse around the false prophecy (Samsung 5LPP), I’d like to respond to @Thraktor's excellent post regarding the OLED model and DisplayPort. A while back I went down the same rabbit hole, but emerged with a different—admittedly less exciting—conclusion: The design of Switch OLED is less likely the remnant of a “Pro” model, but a pragmatic pandemic-era product that affords Nintendo the maximum level of adaptability. A hardware that can be enabled to support 4K on TV, HDR on OLED display and TV, and higher performance profiles if/when necessary.

Since I still have a lot to catch up on offline, I’m going to write my reasoning below rather haphazardly. Please pardon anything unclear or imprecise.

[Background]

According to Bloomberg, the mass production of the OLED model started in June 2021, and I’d guess that the product design concluded in 2H 2020 and production lines set up in 1H 2021. Note that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was only emergency-approved by the FDA in December 2020, and the world’s logistics was still in chaos during that time frame. → When the OLED was being finalized, the business risk and logistical uncertainty due to the pandemic was still at an elevated level, to put it lightly.

Thanks to @oldpuck and a Korean leaker, we know that Nintendo tested an overclocked TX1, but it obviously didn’t work out. A Chinese uncle shared that in 2020 there was a Switch prototype that wasn’t the OLED, and a Japanese uncle stated that a Pro model was planned. As @LiC pointed out, the “11 developers” report came out after the OLED announcement, therefore these disgruntled devs probably weren’t complaining about the SWOLED. → Assuming the rumors were credible, the cancellation of Pro doesn’t seem to be a last-minute decision.

[Considerations]

So if the SWOLED isn’t a repurposed “Pro” model, why is it 4K capable? (And possibly HDR ready too; I’ll explain it further down in the post.)
  • Nintendo had enough time to remove those two pins to the PI3USB30532 crossbar, and could’ve kept the original DP-to-HDMI converter instead of upgrading to the RTD2172. Since every penny saved adds up to a hill of beans at Switch’s volume, this was certainly a deliberate design choice.
  • At that moment the supply chain was still in chaos and the efficacy/availability of COVID vaccines was also in question, Nintendo probably couldn’t predict with high confidence when they’d be able to release the Switch successor.
  • Hence, the company needed the OLED model to keep the platform’s momentum going for an undetermined amount of time—it could be years before the successor reaches the market. Even when it does, the quantity might be extremely limited (see: PS5 and XSX in 2021), necessitating a prolonged service of the SWOLED in that scenario.
  • For these reasons, I believe that the OLED model was therefore spec’d with reserved hardware capabilities to cover all eventualities.

[Reserved capability: better performance]

We all know that the Mariko SoC is capable of better performance than currently allowed. It can be unlocked with higher performance profiles in exchange for a shorter battery life. Some might think that the additional profiles would be a hassle for the developers; if they are planning to build cross-gen titles, however, supporting an in-between performance tier may not need much investment.

[Reserved capability: 4K and HDR TV output]

To @Thraktor's point, four data lanes are wired from SWOLED’s Mariko to the USB matrix. Since both the TX1 and PI3USB30532 support DisplayPort 1.2, the OLED model in theory can transmit 4K/60Hz/HDR10 video to the dock via DP Alt Mode. Note that at this data rate, HDR10 content doesn’t require chroma subsampling or Display Stream Compression (DSC, which wasn’t supported until DP 1.4 anyway).

On the OG dock, the STDP2550 DP-to-HDMI converter is only capable of HDMI 1.4b output, capping out at 4K/30Hz. (Technically HDMI 1.4b can transmit 4K/60Hz/HDR10 using chroma subsampling, but that isn’t an industry standard and thus not supported by STDP2550.) The OLED dock instead contains an RTD2172, which converts DP 1.4 to HDMI 2.0b, thus permitting 4K/60Hz/no HDR, or 4K/60Hz/HDR10 with chroma subsampling.

So here we have a 4K and HDR capable output chain from the source to the sink, just waiting to be activated. And lest we forget that the OLED dock inexplicably contains an updatable firmware.

[Reserved capability: HDR on OLED display]

The model number of the OLED panel in SWOLED is AMS699VC01. “AMS” denotes a rigid AMOLED, and “V” a panel in Samsung’s V series. Other devices that I could identify using a V series rigid AMOLED include:
  • Realme X50 Pro, 90Hz, DCI-P3, HDR10+, 1,000+ nits (peak)
  • Meizu 17 and 17 Pro, 90Hz, DCI-P3, 700 nits (typical), 1100 nits (peak)
  • Vivo S9, 90Hz, 98% NTSC, HDR10+
  • Vivo V20 Pro and S7, 98.5% NTSC, HDR10
  • OnePlus Nord, 90Hz, DCI-P3
  • Honor Play5, HDR10
  • Google Pixel 4a, HDR
These are the advertised specs on the manufacturer sites, and could be exaggerated marketing numbers. Nonetheless it shows the V series’ performance range, of which the SWOLED’s panel should be capable. I know what you’re going to ask: How come there are reports claiming the OLED model is only somewhere around 350-370 cd/m2 max?

To maintain efficiency and prevent burn-in, most OLED panels feature an Auto Brightness Limiter (ABL) that dials down all individual pixels’ luminance as the video content as a whole becomes brighter. You can see the ABL in action here (pay attention to the brightness of the blue Windows background). The Alienware AS3423DW, for instance, is rated at 1013 cd/m2 when 1% of the screen is white (1% APL), but drops to 258 cd/m2 when 100% of the screen is white (100% APL):
kUpjzr6.png


To no one’s surprise, there’s no industry standard regarding how “peak brightness” is measured. Alienware advertises the aforementioned monitor’s peak brightness at 1% APL. RTINGS.com, on the other hand, only tests peak brightness down to 2% APL. Likewise, “typical brightness” can be measured at 100% APL or another condition that only the manufacturer knows.

Further muddying the water is the Auto Static Brightness Limiter (ASBL) feature. It automatically dims the whole display if the video content is mostly static. For example, If one plays a visual novel such as the Great Ace Attorney on an OLED panel with ASBL, after a few minutes the brightness will decrease because the video is mostly static. You can see the ASBL in action here.

AFAIK, there’s no ABL or ASBL on the SWOLED. Better yet, the YouTube videos that I’ve seen testing the OLED model’s brightness were all done with a 100% white screen. Under these conditions, a panel exhibiting 350-370 cd/m2 luminance is actually pretty respectable. If AMS699VC01 is similarly spec’d as the other V series panels listed above, Nintendo may be able to activate the ABL to allow for a much higher peak brightness, and in turn HDR.

The VESA DisplayHDR “True Black 600” standard seems to support my hypothesis. The “True Black” tiers are specifically for OLED displays, taking into account their superior contrast ratio and differing peak/typical brightness levels. As the table below demonstrates, an OLED panel capable of sustaining 350 cd/m2 at 100% APL (for which the SWOLED already qualifies) and reaching 600 cd/m2 at 10% APL (for which the SWOLED should be able to qualify after enabling ABL) can be considered—among other requirements—HDR capable.
wVyHV2s.png


Note that the True Black 600 is currently the highest tier of DisplayHDR for OLED, and “provides up to 50X greater dynamic range and 4X improvement in rise time compared to DisplayHDR 1000”. The output would be gorgeous if Nintendo can enable it. Even if they drop it down to True Black 400/500 to conserve battery, the result can still be enough to satisfy most gamers.

[So you're telling me there's a chance]

Eh, I don’t want to give anyone false hopes, but can see three potential paths forward.

The Drake Switch is released on time at a reasonable price, and a Drake-based Lite follows shortly: This would be the best case for Nintendo. The OLED model would likely be phased out quickly, therefore no need to activate any of these reserved capabilities.

The Drake Switch is released timely but at a higher price point; the OLED and Lite remain in the market: Some major Nintendo franchises are family friendly/oriented. I’m not sure if the Mario, Pokemon, AC, Kirby, and Yoshi series would ever release a Drake exclusive until Nintendo is able to create a Drake-based Lite. To maintain the marketability of SWOLED (maybe even Lite) and prolong its service life, the higher performance profiles for Mariko could be unleashed. For product segmentation reasons, the 4K output probably won’t be turned on. The HDR capability might go either way.

In the doomsday scenario of Drake being canceled or severely delayed, or the global supply chain going to s*** yet again: Although Nintendo certainly don’t want this to happen, IMHO they made plans for this during the height of the pandemic. The OLED model would be hard-pressed to expand its product scope, by enabling all its reserved capabilities, to ride out the storm.

P.S.: This is also a long and roundabout way of saying that if the Switch successor reuses the same OLED panel, it probably can support HDR.
 
Summer 2024 or later would be pessimistic. Most realistically optimistic is that nintendo announces in June/July 2023 and releases in Nov 2023. I'm leaning towards October 2023 announcement and March/April 2024 release similar to what they did with the switch.
Im not feeling late year announcement and release in q1. Would they really want to lose holiday sales? I think Switch 1 sales would tank hard.
 
It depends on which of the Big N's makes it, though. NVIDIA? Obviously. Nintendo? Not so obviously. Nintendo are yet to write an emulator that outclasses PC emulators from the 90's, so I wouldn't count on them being able to achieve better-than-native performance.
The GB/GBC/GBA emulators on NSO are absolutely best-in-class, and with maybe one feature that they've clearly intentionally chosen not to implement (super GameBoy support) are absolutely unrivaled. NERD is an entire arm of Nintendo dedicated to R&D including emulation, and hold a number of related patents.

Nintendo has been delivering PC emulators to developers since the late 1980s, when Nintendo delivered a high quality SNES emulator to speed up SNES development before the console even launched. Nvidia has no significant emulation experience.

Open Source emulators, when popular, often receive absolutely huge amounts of technical investment. Yuzu, for example, has more active contributors than the entirety of MonolithSoft, and is over half a billion lines of code. The standard process for estimating software development costs (COCOMO II) suggests that it would take a team of 100 people 2.8 years to write at a cost of about $27 million.

Of course Yuzu is an incredible effort, but it's unsurprising it excels at the exact sorts of edge cases that the fan community cares about, while totally lacking in the turn-key operation that is critical for a commercial software company. This isn't indicative of Nintendo's ability to deliver a quality emulator.

Considering Nintendo will 1) likely keep new hardware in the Switch family, 2) has emphasized a desire for continuity across platforms, 3) has only delivered one non-BC handheld in it's entire lifetime, 4) will likely need some level of emulation for BC, Nintendo has a combination of the skills, the platform, and the market push to make Switch on REDACTED run at high perf and quality.
 
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That 4chan thread is very blatantly a repackaging of our own rumors and speculation in the format of a (fake) leak post. There are multiple one-to-one mappings between things discussed here and statements in the post (hopefully I don't have to explain why this makes it considerably less credible, despite being more believable). Meanwhile, the only new or different thing in it is the totally out there "CCD" concept. I think someone clearly combined existing speculation with a wild guess at a StreetPass-like gimmick.
 
Software emulation is taxing, though. Assuming it'll be about on the level of the Steam Deck, I doubt even Nintendo themselves could write a Switch emulator optimised enough to push beyond 1080p at full speed.
It's not a matter of "pushing beyond" 1080p. The games have built-in maximum output resolutions, and they cannot be exceeded without modifying the games themselves. If the resolution is dynamic, then additional performance overhead may allow games to stay higher in their range than they would otherwise, but the maximum will not budge without a patch.

That said, certain games are already rendering at higher resolutions than can be output, and will benefit from higher output resolutions for free, but those are fairly rare.
 
"know"

If this doesn't release until November 2024, wouldn't that suggest that perhaps they moved on to something else or what.
"Know", as in "we can't know". Because we. Can't know. 😅 While we "know" about the SOC. 2 years is a very short amount of time to design an all-new SOC, and it's extremely unlikely T239 was scrapped due to Linux updates.
 
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That 4chan thread is very blatantly a repackaging of our own rumors and speculation in the format of a (fake) leak post. There are multiple one-to-one mappings between things discussed here and statements in the post (hopefully I don't have to explain why this makes it considerably less credible, despite being more believable). Meanwhile, the only new or different thing in it is the totally out there "CCD" concept. I think someone clearly combined existing speculation with a wild guess at a StreetPass-like gimmick.
The CCD concept was just taken from a Nintendo patent, also discussed here.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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