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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Mendinso said:
That said, take what I say with a grain of salt, but I feel DF's been pretty negative about the idea for a bit.
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Trying to play safe, you don't want to be in clickbait articles for something that might or might not happen, which is why they'll never give real info (implying they even have anything) or confirm anything.
 
arsen said:
Trying to play safe, you don't want to be in clickbait articles for something that might or might not happen, which is why they'll never give real info (implying they even have anything) or confirm anything.
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That's what John literally just did though.

Paraphrasing John "From talking to developers, there was a mid gen more powerful model, but it seems to be canned"
 
arsen said:
I see you bring that often but did we get anything serious about something getting canned?
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we literally just did

maybe the idea is that it got indefinitely delayed to be positioned as switch 2 but that's still an indefinite amount of time in which your work is in limbo
 
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The idea that a mid-gen refresh was canned isn't something new. We discussed it in this very thread when we got the Drake data leak and we realized it was way stronger than expected.

The canned chip is obviously not Drake which was being worked through 2022 and is, for all intent and purposes, the next-gen chip Nikkei alluded to in 2019 (when work for it started, as per the Nvidia leak).
 
Raccoon said:
when attached to the assertion that 2023 is off the table I think the claim goes beyond dane to drake

unless this has been the plan for a very long time
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If you believe Drake is canned, then I don't know what to tell you. It was the only chip in the works for Nintendo by Nvidia as of February 2022 and we a Linux commit on the chip last September.

So you either believe:

  • Nintendo is working with another partner than Nvidia
  • Nintendo is restarting the dev of the chip, making a release before 2025/2026 unlikely.
 
Successor, pro or even just a Lite OLED, they're definitely launching something this year. Nintendo has never gone 2 whole years without releasing a handheld iteration and they won't stop now.
 
So it's possible the next Switch is getting the Metroid Prime 4 treatment
 
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Hermii said:
John is not talking about a theory, he is saying it as a matter of fact from devs mouth. Anyone can make up a theory.
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I know, and it does fill up some of the gap we had until know (for example the devkits rumors that started in Late 2020).

My main point is that the "canned" bit adds context but doesn't change the chip we are talking about (Drake). The only relevant info to it is "2023" being apparently off the table but it sounded more speculation than anything.
 
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Truno said:
DF was one of the few channels that correctly covered the Switch OLED's reveal. They absolutely have contacts
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I mean, so did Mochizuki. no one doubts they have contacts, but they would speak more definitively about the topic if they had something worth reporting rather than tack it onto a Q&A video
 
Lelouch0612 said:
If you believe Drake is canned, then I don't know what to tell you. It was the only chip in the works for Nintendo by Nvidia as of February 2022 and we a Linux commit on the chip last September.

So you either believe:

  • Nintendo is working with another partner than Nvidia
  • Nintendo is restarting the dev of the chip, making a release before 2025/2026 unlikely.
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they don't have to can a chip design to cancel a product, right? drake could still be used much later
 
Soralink91 said:
Interesting development. Looks like 2023 will be another standard year for Switch.
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What development? There hasn't been significant news in months.

Why are people so quick to jump to "Alright, one statement from someone we can't confirm means it definitely isn't happening."
 
Mendinso said:
Unless I'm wrong, but hasn't DF been off the mark regarding the Drake for a bit? Plus if they're still mentioning the mid-generation refresh, this is obviously not what the Drake is (regardless if Nintendo markets it as such). There's also the fact Nintendo has had huge bursts of Raw Materials between Summer and Winter this year in their inventory that still hasn't been explained (on top of the hiring for new hardware, accessory testing and distribution). Not sure what that would be unless it was the Drake.

That said, take what I say with a grain of salt, but I feel DF's been pretty negative about the idea for a bit.
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The irony is they've also explicitly teased it and used it in titles. I think things have just gone quiet... Because it's the holiday period.

A mid gen refresh being canned isn't that surprising, that happens all the time.

Drake however... Isn't that.

You don't can something after already manufacturing the chips, building the API, buying up raw materials to manufacture it, run test manufacturing runs, tell developers to prepare for launch and then release support for its new resolution and memory I/O system to the public stream of the OS it'll use.

Balance of probability, it's coming. Only it won't be a "mid-gen". It'll be next gen.
 
ILikeFeet said:
the product would be designed around the chip. and since this was billed as a "mid-gen update", Drake doesn't reasonably fit the bill.
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we've spent a third of this thread talking about all the different approaches an iterative model could take, why draw a hard line now? Everyone has sworn up and down the distinction is meaningless, and I see no reason that Drake couldn't be the "mid gen refresh" that they're talking about

if the Switch 1 got games for another five years the new model could have absolutely qualified as mid gen. Now we seem to be looking at a more traditional hard line that, given the enduring software sales on Switch, could easily be further in the future than any of us expect.
 
Concernt said:
A mid gen refresh being canned isn't that surprising, that happens all the time.

Drake however... Isn't that.
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look at the context though, a viewer asked about 2023 and they say whatever was happening seemingly isn't and 2023 is off the table

Drake will absolutely live but with this info it's likely not the product we've been talking about
 
Raccoon said:
we've spent a third of this thread talking about all the different approaches an iterative model could take, why draw a hard line now? Everyone has sworn up and down the distinction is meaningless, and I see no reason that Drake couldn't be the "mid gen refresh" that they're talking about

if the Switch 1 got games for another five years the new model could have absolutely qualified as mid gen. Now we seem to be looking at a more traditional hard line that, given the enduring software sales on Switch, could easily be further in the future than any of us expect.
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You wouldn't tend to manufacture a customised chip several years in advance of the device it's for. Which we're fairly certain they did, given Linux commits. What are they going to do, sit on billions worth of stock for 18-36 MONTHS? Storing materials costs money. Security costs money. They're not a religious institution peddling mythos and hope, they're a company that has a legal mandate to cut costs and ship products.
 
Could John be referring to a Mariko pro which we have heard had been in the works before? I'm pretty sure we've heard that existed at one time and was canned.
 
Raccoon said:
look at the context though, a viewer asked about 2023 and they say whatever was happening seemingly isn't and 2023 is off the table

Drake will absolutely live but with this info it's likely not the product we've been talking about
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A YouTube viewer asked a YouTuber about it, and we're taking that as gospel over Nintendo's own financial reports? Linux kernel commits? Verifiable leaks?

I respect John, and Digital Foundry, but everyone can be wrong. Or mistaken, or overcautious, or nervous, etc. Why would this one statement from someone not involved in its development dissaude anyone?
 
Raccoon said:
oh shit, something really did get canned

I assume that if that's the case Drake will still be used eventually as Switch 2, right?
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Richard doesn’t seem sure but John does. He’ll have a ton of sources at various devs and he seems to think it’s not happening - at least in 2023.

In my opinion the next update we receive will be one to say this expected 2023 device is awol and that Nintendo will refocus on any new hardware being 100% a successor.

I really hope John is wrong but I don’t think the signs are good. Nate obvious wants to tell us all something, Bloomberg have barely mentioned anything for over a year, DF don’t think anything is imminent despite their developer sources.
 
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Hermii said:
It's definitely something new. We never heard about anything being canned before.
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The nikkei article from April 2019 said pro was canceled and switch next gen was in development. Pro was just an over clocked Mariko chip, the clocks still exist, it would have been 650GFLOPs (instead of 393GFLOPs) and 1.728GHz CPU. It wasn't fast enough for Nintendo to bother with, so they killed the trademark that they were ready to submit and we ended up with the red box model instead.
 
Raccoon said:
we've spent a third of this thread talking about all the different approaches an iterative model could take, why draw a hard line now? Everyone has sworn up and down the distinction is meaningless, and I see no reason that Drake couldn't be the "mid gen refresh" that they're talking about

if the Switch 1 got games for another five years the new model could have absolutely qualified as mid gen. Now we seem to be looking at a more traditional hard line that, given the enduring software sales on Switch, could easily be further in the future than any of us expect.
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I'm not making the distinction now. my position has been the same since we learned of drake. the distinction is purely semantical when it comes to marketing but the hardware is "Switch 2" in all but name. the jump from Switch to drake is larger than the Xbox One to One X

the problem is that DF is not being specific. they just say a "mid gen refresh" without any context on how that's defined. are they talking about drake? are they talking about something else? if you don't draw lines, then it's an ultimately meaningless comment that they're throwing out there
 
Z0m3le said:
The nikkei article from April 2019 said pro was canceled and switch next gen was in development. Pro was just an over clocked Mariko chip, the clocks still exist, it would have been 650GFLOPs (instead of 393GFLOPs) and 1.728GHz CPU. It wasn't fast enough for Nintendo to bother with, so they killed the trademark that they were ready to submit and we ended up with the red box model instead.
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Hmm. You have the link?
 
Concernt said:
A YouTube viewer asked a YouTuber about it, and we're taking that as gospel over Nintendo's own financial reports? Linux kernel commits? Verifiable leaks?

I respect John, and Digital Foundry, but everyone can be wrong. Or mistaken, or overcautious, or nervous, etc. Why would this one statement from someone not involved in its development dissaude anyone?
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any of the facts can be explained by our limited perspective. an insider's perspective is obviously not verifiable and factual, but it is complete. everything we know is incomplete
 
Raccoon said:
any of the facts can be explained by our limited perspective. an insider's perspective is obviously not verifiable and factual, but it is complete. everything we know is incomplete
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No, their perspective is not complete.

Not even the 3rd party software developers have a "complete" perspective. The only people who have a "complete" perspective, objectively, would be the product managers. It would be lovely if one of them walked on in here to dazzle us with a broken NDA and a picture of the motherboard, but let's be real. That won't happen. Until this thing comes out we can only have an incomplete picture. Some people may have more pieces. Some may have many but are unwilling to share. Some are legally bound to not so much as hint that they might know something. Unless we get a leak in the vein of the Nvidia breach, or a full on reveal, all details are speculation, just some more informed, and some less.
 
Hermii said:
Hmm. You have the link?
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Here, it was never translated correctly, but the original article said that a pro model was considered and canceled, that a new Switch generation is beginning development, with a new OS and cpu/components.

The clocks for the Mariko model can still be seen in the firmware. It's been known for quite some time that the pro model existed, and is why we've had so much fun all these years waiting for a pro model.

Also, we know Drake started development at this time, early 2019. I personally knew of a second switch trademark that was coming alongside the Switch lite, but it was canceled.
 
Concernt said:
No, their perspective is not complete.

Not even the 3rd party software developers have a "complete" perspective. The only people who have a "complete" perspective, objectively, would be the product managers. It would be lovely if one of them walked on in here to dazzle us with a broken NDA and a picture of the motherboard, but let's be real. That won't happen. Until this thing comes out we can only have an incomplete picture. Some people may have more pieces. Some may have many but are unwilling to share. Some are legally bound to not so much as hint that they might know something. Unless we get a leak in the vein of the Nvidia breach, or a full on reveal, all details are speculation, just some more informed, and some less.
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well sure but what I'm saying is that our pieces suck and theirs suck less
 
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Hermii said:
@John_DF Do you have anything to elaborate about this canned model? Is it the one that was meant for late 2022/early 23? Is it the diss model? Or could it be something like an upclocked Mariko.
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I respect the @ but he absolutely means whatever we've been talking about based on the context
 
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I don't know if their info on a mid gen refresh being cancelled is right but what's sure is that they know nothing about a new console in 2023 which is pretty telling, especially since they were pretty ahead of the curve in 2016 when reporting on the NX.
 
Charamiwa said:
I don't know if their info on a mid gen refresh being cancelled is right but what's sure is that they know nothing about a new console in 2023 which is pretty telling, especially since they were pretty ahead of the curve in 2016 when reporting on the NX.
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yep. regardless of how we split the hairs, 2023 is dead

pikmin 4 my beloved...
 
Charamiwa said:
I don't know if their info on a mid gen refresh being cancelled is right but what's sure is that they know nothing about a new console in 2023 which is pretty telling, especially since they were pretty ahead of the curve in 2016 when reporting on the NX.
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That's not even true, they've been talking about it for MONTHS. 😅

Plus, leaks can be plugged.
 
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