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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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SpaceGodzilla said:
been wondering if the drake really is nintendo's next-gen console if they'll reveal it during a direct or e3, or if they just choose a random day like sometimes
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Usually the latter. They'll usually issue a press release, alongside a video, and then maybe have a proper unveiling separate from typical expos. Usually it's a press event. They may not do too much depending on how Nintendo markets the Drake/Switch 2 (or whatever they call it), but we'll see.
 
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Concernt said:
Now there's been time to refine the design and let old parts get cheaper, I'd say there's a good chance they'd consider superior sticks. However if they DO move to hall-effect sticks in the next Switch, I doubt they'll announce it. That would essentially lose them every lawsuit on the matter instantly, since it would admit fault. If they do it silently and market them as "no deadzone" or "more accurate" analogue sticks, maybe they'd get away with it. My expectation is that they simply won't fix it, and if they do, they'll remain silent on the matter for legal reasons.
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Making something better isn't admitting fault in what was there before. When Wii MotionPlus happened, they didn't come out saying "And now you can pay to upgrade to real motion control, not that old crap we were pushing on you!" The launch of Mariko with its better battery life didn't need "We screwed up, now you can REALLY take this thing wherever!"

And there's got to be some financial incentive in being able to get rid of the "Yes, we'll fix your stick drift forever at no cost" policy.
 
Reading this Orin Nano PCI Lanes thread, it seems the Orin nano at 15W is limited to gen 4 speeds for one lane and gen 3 for other lanes.

I think Nintendo will use one gen 4 Lane and possibly an additional lane for the USB C port, as 4k60@8b uses 14.4Gb/s using the HDMI standard, which is almost an entire gen 4 lane at 2GB/S. If they want to use HDR I think two lanes is the minimum, HDR would be a great addition with an OLED Panel.

With the left over lanes likely being limited to Gen 3 speeds at 985MB/s I would imagine that if Nintendo uses UFS 2.1 or UFS 3.0 985MB/s could be its max speed, same for external and cartridge. This is before considering how much data the CPU can push.

Either way, I hope I can do Resident Evil speed runs on the switch finally. Haha.
 
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Well if we are getting Samsung, I hope Nintendo and Nvidia can get some kind of "value bundle" deal out of them. If they're getting the SOC, screen, RAM, UFS storage among other things, it'd be nice if they can negotiate something that turns out to be more affordable than we think.
 
Thugstas said:
Happy Xmas eve friends and non friends 😉.
Joyeux réveillon de Noel aux francophones.
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T'as fini avec tes clins d'œil, toi... 😜
mariodk18 said:
Well if we are getting Samsung, I hope Nintendo and Nvidia can get some kind of "value bundle" deal out of them. If they're getting the SOC, screen, RAM, UFS storage among other things, it'd be nice if they can negotiate something that turns out to be more affordable than we think.
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Good point! I don't think it was ever mentioned but sourcing components from the same company can give them the necessary leeway to negociate lower prices. That's something TSMC couldn't do.
 
Thugstas said:
Happy Xmas eve friends and non friends 😉.
Joyeux réveillon de Noel aux francophones.
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Joyeux réveillon de Noël.
Je parle aussi français;)

Kenka said:
T'as fini avec tes clins d'œil, toi... 😜

Good point! I don't think it was ever mentioned but sourcing components from the same company can give them the necessary leeway to negociate lower prices. That's something TSMC couldn't do.
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I think Z0m3le mentioned something like that back in the Era days. It is definitely possible.
 
Hermii said:
My expectations are low, like you said memory bandwidth is an issue with RT even on the series S. It will definitely be in Drake, no matter how much better Nvidias RT hardware is.

Stuff like Ray Traced sound like forza horizon is doing, is probably a good use on Drake. And the occasional title using RT shadows.
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RT for switch level games might just be okay though. Totk with RT would look really interesting.

Terrell said:
I mean, the process node was important only in deriving estimates based on what each process node could theoretically achieve at a certain thermal envelope and SoC die size (which we assumed would be similar to Erista). If you have the clocks and the TFLOPs and the number of SMs and cores, the only thing the process node will tell you at that point is how big the chip is and how power-hungry it is, which means nothing to compute performance. It's only relevant when talking about how they'll cram everything into the chassis based on how large the SoC die is and how big the battery will have to be to power it all. Good questions, sure, but nothing that impacts compute performance.
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I'm confused when people say process doesn't matter in the end... ? A newer, more advanced rocess node is important though cause it allows for a lower power draw and more battery life for the same clock speed as a older node. But this also gives more room for higher clock speeds.

Nintendo is likely aiming for a certain power draw range in power draw in handheld and docked mode. Perhaps similar to the switch. With an newer node, Nintendo can go higher in clock speeds in handheld and docked mode while balancing out battery life (At bare minimum, they match OG Switch battery life for Launch Drake).

So in short.. A 1 GHz GPU should be much more likely on 5nm vs 8nm, because the former would take less power draw and is closer to reaching reach it's theoretical max. And again, we can bet Nintendo wants to have a good battery life.

Oh and of course, smaller nodes means smaller SOC. Could an 8nm Samsung fit in a switch shell? Who knows. Weknow the camera and automated stuff will be absent.

Other than that, I'm not convinced 8nm Samsung is possible for Drake with 3 tflops at a reasonable power draw. Would Nintendo be okay with a higher power draw in docked mode .. Like 25 watts? I dunno. But I bet handheld they want to keep less than 10 watts..
 
ShadowFox08 said:
I'm confused when people say process doesn't matter in the end... ? A newer, more advanced rocess node is important though cause it allows for a lower power draw and more battery life for the same clock speed as a older node. But this also gives more room for higher clock speeds.
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But if you have the clock speeds and the number of cores, etc, as I said in that post, there's no higher or lower, the number is there. That's the point, it becomes irrelevant to talking about potential compute performance, you KNOW the performance then, so the process node will only tell you how big the chip is and how much power it consumes based on the clock speeds you already have. That is its only remaining value to the discussion once you have a good idea of what cores are there and what clock speed they operate at.
 
We are actually running out of things to speculate on. So how about that battery huh?

Being serious, given it appears Nintendo is targeting original erista power draw, do you think Nintendo will carry on using the same switch battery? This would have the benefit of using existing production and if Nintendo continues making tx1 switches it makes their production simpler.

Or do they go with a denser battery to achieve longer battery life than erista models? Battery densities have improved enough to get the 2.5 - 6.5 hour battery life of erista up to 3 - 7 hours, and whilst it may not seem like much, the message of greater than 3 hours of battery life does send a more positive message.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
We are actually running out of things to speculate on. So how about that battery huh?

Being serious, given it appears Nintendo is targeting original erista power draw, do you think Nintendo will carry on using the same switch battery? This would have the benefit of using existing production and if Nintendo continues making tx1 switches it makes their production simpler.

Or do they go with a denser battery to achieve longer battery life than erista models? Battery densities have improved enough to get the 2.5 - 6.5 hour battery life of erista up to 3 - 7 hours, and whilst it may not seem like much, the message of greater than 3 hours of battery life does send a more positive message.
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If they're willing to use a new battery for Nintendo Switch Lite, my hope is very much that the new battery is a little bigger and a good bit denser. I think the power draw is more because it'll use the same AC adaptor and dock.
 
Hermii said:
Imo the odds that they somehow made Drake twice as efficient as any other ampere card, without changing the process is slim to none.
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I agree completely.

What I'm saying is those frequencies are likely not even close to what the final will be.
 
ShaunSwitch said:
We are actually running out of things to speculate on. So how about that battery huh?

Being serious, given it appears Nintendo is targeting original erista power draw, do you think Nintendo will carry on using the same switch battery? This would have the benefit of using existing production and if Nintendo continues making tx1 switches it makes their production simpler.

Or do they go with a denser battery to achieve longer battery life than erista models? Battery densities have improved enough to get the 2.5 - 6.5 hour battery life of erista up to 3 - 7 hours, and whilst it may not seem like much, the message of greater than 3 hours of battery life does send a more positive message.
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They could keep using the same battery if the cost savings of doing so is substantial enough and they don't think they'll get any blowback for stepping back to 2017 Switch battery life at launch. But I'd think that the cost savings would have to be really good to consider that.
 
mariodk18 said:
Wasn't someone saying that Drake could be on Samsung 7nm? Which was apparently more like an 8nm+ or something? Maybe that will actually be what we end up getting.
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this immediately came to mind as it seemed to be a random forum post pulled out of thin air but maybe in hindsight there was something to it.

anyway who cares about node can i get a Zelda? Samsung Uncles go forth and give us that new year present we've all been waiting for.
 
Although not directly related to Nintendo, in the spirit of the holidays, I present a cursed video from Nvidia. ☠️
 
HankyPanky said:
this immediately came to mind as it seemed to be a random forum post pulled out of thin air but maybe in hindsight there was something to it.

anyway who cares about node can i get a Zelda? Samsung Uncles go forth and give us that new year present we've all been waiting for.
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Samsung 7nm is dead
 
there will be a ray tracing benchmark for mobile coming as well as expected performance

IV_Screenshot_03.png

IV_Screenshot_01.png

Basemark admits that users of 2022 mobile devices aren’t going to experience stellar results in this benchmark. Current ray tracing capable devices will do well to hit 15fps in In Vitro, according to the software developer, with official benchmark runs/scores always being rendered at FHD.
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hothardware.com

Basemark Teases GPUScore: In Vitro, The Industry's First Mobile Ray Tracing Benchmark

The medieval 3D ray-traced scene won’t render faster than about 15fps on 2022 devices, but is built for the future.
hothardware.com hothardware.com
www.basemark.com

GPUScore: In Vitro | Basemark

GPUScore: In Vitro is the world's first raytracing graphics benchmark for mobile devices.
www.basemark.com www.basemark.com
 
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During this 2022 I understood a lot of circulating information is fake news, that many create baseless rumors, affecting official information.

I hope ethics is the gift for everyone this Christmas, Happy Holidays!
 
iNess said:
During this 2022 I understood a lot of circulating information is fake news, that many create baseless rumors, affecting official information.

I hope ethics is the gift for everyone this Christmas, Happy Holidays!
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Everything here is speculation until it is confirmed by officials
 
Hello my favorite Famiboard fams, it is I, the guy you don't know here to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holidays while all of you work diligently to construct the Nintendo Switch 2.

I hope everyone has a great holidays and may the Nintendo Gods bring all of us faithful and non-faithful glorious new Nintendo hardware and games in the new year. Also stay warm, it's like death out there! :coffee:
 
Raccoon said:
wait, we've been over this possibility before...

christ maybe it really is bigger

that's the only dealbreaker for me so it'd be sort of cosmically funny to me if that's the concession they made
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Wait what do you mean? I've been kinda out of the loop
 
mariodk18 said:
Mochizuki of WSJ/Bloomberg got the manufacturing timing for the OLED model and the v2 about 4.5 months before its release, which would place us around end of December to mid January. Which makes sense because Nintendo likely planned this thing to start production just at the tail end of the holiday season (New Year's in Japan), so they don't have to answer questions to investors about a new Switch until they got their end of year sales in. So I would give about a week, maybe even more (because of the holidays) before we start hearing leaks on that front.
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Great point on the OLED info leaking 4.5 months before release! Next month should be interesting looks like we still got time
 
Leviraps said:
Great point on the OLED info leaking 4.5 months before release! Next month should be interesting looks like we still got time
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And if Drake ends up sharing some components with the SWOLED, like the screen, housing, or dock, then it could potentially take a bit longer for manufacturing to start or leak.
SirShorse said:
Oh, and what's this I'm reading about potential manufacturing leaks in January??
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Just based on extrapolating previous hardware manufacturing and leak times. Could differ and come a bit later (see above reply).
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
In this thread

Switch 2 will launch in 2023 on a worse node than the 2019 consoles but it’s not bad news

🤔
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The current-gen consoles released in 2020.
We're extrapolating from header files that specify a manufacturer. It doesn't confirm a size.
Most of us assume Samsung 8nm because it's already used by Orin. The Orin AGX devkits released this year.
The RTX 30 series from 2020 uses Samsung 8nm too.

Even if 8nm is confirmed, which it still isn't, I don't see how it'd be bad news.
 
Serif said:
The current-gen consoles released in 2020.
We're extrapolating from header files that specify a manufacturer. It doesn't confirm a size.
Most of us assume Samsung 8nm because it's already used by Orin. The Orin AGX devkits released this year.
The RTX 30 series from 2020 uses Samsung 8nm too.

Even if 8nm is confirmed, which it still isn't, I don't see how it'd be bad news.
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8 nm on a chip that size, would almost certainly mean slow clock speeds and poor battery life going by the performance/ watt ratio of any other ampere card. So it would be pretty baffling. So it would be pretty baffling that they didn't go with a smaller soc.

That's unless they disable sm in portable mode, and the full chip is meant for 4k in docked mode.
 
To the occasional lurker: Samsung 8nm is fine. It is not a node as cutting edge as TSMC 5nm (by far not actually) but it does the job.

However, there were instances in the past in which this reference didn't reflect accurately the final node used.

So take everything you have read so far with a big pinch of salt!
 
Kenka said:
To the occasional lurker: Samsung 8nm is fine. It is not a node as cutting edge as TSMC 5nm (by far not actually) but it does the job.

However, there were instances in the past in which this reference didn't reflect accurately the final node used.

So take everything you have read so far with a big pinch of salt!
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It is fine in isolation, but not in the context of the chip size imo, assuming the whole chip is used in portable mode.
 
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I don't mean to go full because Nintendo on you guys but the system being on a slightly disappointing chip sounds right on brand here. Like, it fits perfectly. Remember where we were hanging on to our hope of a Pascal chip or the Tegra X2 for the NX... If they can get their hands on a more available and cheaper chip I think they won't think twice about it.
 
is there any chance Drake is a TV only device now and we'll get a die shrink in a hybrid after a few years?

I really hope they don't try to make this work in a dramatically bigger tablet and leave it at that
 
Charamiwa said:
I don't mean to go full because Nintendo on you guys but the system being on a slightly disappointing chip sounds right on brand here. Like, it fits perfectly. Remember where we were hanging on to our hope of a Pascal chip or the Tegra X2 for the NX... If they can get their hands on a more available and cheaper chip I think they won't think twice about it.
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It being ampere and a78 (3 year old cpu and gpu arch in 2023) is on brand.

The chip having too much silicon to work efficiently as a handheld for the node being chosen, is just poor design.
 
Leviraps said:
Great point on the OLED info leaking 4.5 months before release! Next month should be interesting looks like we still got time
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Yes we're near the deadline. At this point if there's leak, it will be close to the announcement.
Though if the next thing is a standard nintendo direct by february, brace yourselves.
 
Charamiwa said:
I don't mean to go full because Nintendo on you guys but the system being on a slightly disappointing chip sounds right on brand here. Like, it fits perfectly. Remember where we were hanging on to our hope of a Pascal chip or the Tegra X2 for the NX... If they can get their hands on a more available and cheaper chip I think they won't think twice about it.
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This comparison is very flawed, and this makes absolutely zero sense, and I’m not gonna go into detail as to why. This is something has repeated ad nauseam so many times, and always fails to understand the context of the situation.
 
Hermii said:
It being ampere and a78 (3 year old cpu and gpu arch in 2023) is on brand.

The chip having too much silicon to work efficiently as a handheld for the node being chosen, is just poor design.
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I would not say that ampere is old. It's true that it was released in 2020 but the successor just got released this year and not even every model of those architecture is realeased until now. Just the high end stuff
 
woodhead said:
I would not say that ampere is old. It's true that it was released in 2020 but the successor just got released this year and not even every model of those architecture is realeased until now. Just the high end stuff
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I agree I didn't say so either, this will be even more modern than OG switch was at release date imo. Which was the most cutting edge Nintendo has been, since gamecube? Still there's newer stuff out.

However my point about too large chip to be efficient at 8nm in handheld mode, I stand by.
 
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