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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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I’m pretty sure this is actually related to this:

1E1A68D2-936C-467D-8307-ABC492E67ADB.jpg



It was meant to be a point of comparison between the two to convince them to go for the TX1 over the TK1.
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Here's an idea. What if Nintendo offers a cheaper SKU...wait for it....without a dock? Think about it. The new 3DS XL didn't include an AC adapter out of the box in an effort to cut costs. Especially since there won't be a lite model until 2025 at the earliest. They already offer a dockless configuration of the Switch in Japan, so what if we get:
  • A normal SKU at $449
  • A dockless SKU at $399 or less
They could say something like, "You can use any dock with the new Switch 2, but it you happen to have an OLED dock, a firmware update will allow for 4K/30 output. The Switch 2 dock will allow for 4k60. Additionally, all previous Switch and OLED systems will be compatible with Switch 2 dock."
 
How long do you think that relaxation will last?

I assume you’re asking how long I’ll be content? The biggest reason I’m invested is because I want Switch games in 4K / 30 or 1440p / 60, assuming we hit that I’ll be probably out of the speculation thread for years. This is especially true with my recent 65” Samsung QD-OLED purchase - 720p Switch titles don’t look too hot.

I’d never once taken part in one of these threads, but the Switch is so close to delivering my ideal gaming experience that I couldn’t help but get get into the weeds a bit.
 
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Here's an idea. What if Nintendo offers a cheaper SKU...wait for it....without a dock? Think about it. The new 3DS XL didn't include an AC adapter out of the box in an effort to cut costs. Especially since there won't be a lite model until 2025 at the earliest. They already offer a dockless configuration of the Switch in Japan, so what if we get:
  • A normal SKU at $449
  • A dockless SKU at $399 or less
They could say something like, "You can use any dock with the new Switch 2, but it you happen to have an OLED dock, a firmware update will allow for 4K/30 output. The Switch 2 dock will allow for 4k60. Additionally, all previous Switch and OLED systems will be compatible with Switch 2 dock."
Considering the OLED dock’s chip supports 4K60 and comes with an HDMI 2.0 cable, limiting it to 4K30 would be some petty shit from Nintendo lol
 
Considering the OLED dock’s chip supports 4K60 and comes with an HDMI 2.0 cable, limiting it to 4K30 would be some petty shit from Nintendo lol
Oh it does? Sorry, I had no idea. Then yeah, I guess they would update the dock firmware for full compatibility.
 
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I spend some time outside and I find that it has been discovered that they have done performance tests that go up to 2,027TFLOP undocked mode and 3,456TFLOP in dock mode.

How is it possible that we have managed to know this data? And how is it possible that we know this data but we are not sure when it will be announced or when it will be launched?
 
I spend some time outside and I find that it has been discovered that they have done performance tests that go up to 2,027TFLOP undocked mode and 3,456TFLOP in dock mode.

How is it possible that we have managed to know this data? And how is it possible that we know this data but we are not sure when it will be announced or when it will be launched?
Because this data may not even correlate to the Switch 2 Electric Boogaloo. It tells you about Drake itself and that's not too useful
 
So, ultimately, what Nintendo is able to do will be dictated by the physics of "how much heat and electricity can we shove through this thing before it melts and/or has zero battery life." But if you're thinking about what Nintendo would do, I'd like you to consider how DLSS works.

The PS4 was a 1080p machine. 4K is 4x as many pixels. The Pro is a 4k machine, but it used a technique called "checkerboarding" to make a 4x as big an image with only 2x as much power.

DLSS only needs 10% extra power to make a 4K image. So if Nintendo lands at just ever so slightly more power than the PS4, they can give you a PS4 Pro experience.

The Xbox One was not a 1080p console. It tried, but it almost never delivered. That One X also used checkerboarding, but the One X had to be way way more powerful than the OG Xbox One, because it not only needed the extra power to get to 4k from 1080p, it needed more power just to get to 1080p in the first place.

So, if a 4k Switch hits the Xbox One level of power, then last gen games will still need to get some cuts in order to get up to 1080p, plus a little extra if you actually want the "4k" part of your 4k Switch. At the PS4's level of power, you need just need enough cuts to find that 10% of power. And if you manage 110%, you can still be well, well, well behind the PS4 Pro, but offer every last gen game in 4K.

Like I said, physics will determine if Nintendo can cross that gap. But if they can, then the benefit is unusually high
Additionally, and someone please correct me if I’m wrong, RT cores (and the low-effort BVH method they use to generate a ray-traced frame and get Tensor cores to de-noise into something pretty) mean that you save GPU processing that would go toward rendering lights and shadows while producing an image that would never be possible on a PS4 or PS4 Pro. That GPU processing savings can then therefore go to other rendering techniques.
When people say it's comparable to PS4 or something, I sometimes get the impression that the amount of brute-force work pulled off of the CPU and GPU by these hardware-accelerated techniques is not factored in at all. And to a degree, I can understand why, these techniques aren't terribly well understood yet and we have no basis to understand how these techniques perform in dedicated gaming hardware yet.

But when one combines DLSS and RT via RT and Tensor cores, if you're rendering a game natively at 1080p60 on Drake, from what I've read (and please someone correct me if I'm wrong), these accelerators (so long as you have enough of them to render a particular scene) seem like they'd potentially be capable of pushing that native render up to 4K with ray tracing without a framerate dip at a fraction of the GPU power consumption you'd use to do it all natively. Not even PS5 can make claims of being able to achieve a 4K image with RT and no frame rate cut in several games (Demon's Souls, Ratchet & Clank, Spider-Man and DMC5SE being four prime examples, pushing the resolution to UHD 4K with RT on brings the frame rate down to 30fps).
Devil May Cry 5:SE in particular stands out on this list, as that was a 1080p60 game on PS4 and the Special Edition re-release on PS5 does not have any notable visible changes to scene/character geometry or visual effects that I was able to see in comparisons, but even with PS5 being what it is and the game being what it is, Capcom was forced to choose between giving up 4K rendering, ray tracing or 60fps, because it was seemingly not possible to have all 3 simultaneously. Imagine what it means that, in certain circumstances, Nintendo hardware could present fewer sacrifices to visual fidelity than the most recent consoles from Sony and Microsoft. (with the obvious counterpoint that PS5 and XBSX will always be able to push more geometry, of course)

I'm not here to make people overly hopeful, but it's still something worth factoring in, that when we talk about raw base performance, we may be effectively underselling what this can do.
 
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I spend some time outside and I find that it has been discovered that they have done performance tests that go up to 2,027TFLOP undocked mode and 3,456TFLOP in dock mode.

How is it possible that we have managed to know this data? And how is it possible that we know this data but we are not sure when it will be announced or when it will be launched?
We don't have enough context to know what this means. It's a test done on the chip itself, or possibly a virtualized version of the chip, not necessarily in a console environment and not necessarily using real world numbers, possibly just theoretical models.

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That's a good point, I should have said at least an approximation of the chip itself.
I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm almost certain these measurements are a desktop SIMULATING the expected graphical output of the device in handheld and TV mode, + an in-between (light TV, media app?) mode.

While these aren't on final hardware, they appear to be targets for it. The target for the device appears to be 1-2TF in handheld mode and 3-4 in TV mode. If they had those targets in mind back in February, then they probably had a decent idea of the node this chip would be on.

While I don't think we can take this for absolute certain about the final hardware, and we shouldn't, these are probably indicative of Nvidia's own goals for the hardware, and I have little reason to believe they would deviate hugely from these.

Given the power consumption listed at the given performance targets, this thing is, to me, almost certainly more efficient than Samsung 8nm in existing chips. It could still be 8nm, just optimised in different ways.

Personally I think it's most likely the same node as Ada, given the Linux commits imply final hardware production had begun by time Ada Lovelace cards started being sold, or close enough. If they have capacity on that node, and need a power efficient chip for a handheld, and a handheld they will lay their legacy on as the sole Nvidia powered console on the market, I don't see why they wouldn't. It remains however that they may not have.

As for whether this is just GPU power consumption, given these are the power consumptions of the whole (current) Switch system listed, I'd say these are just that, target power consumption of the whole NEXT Switch. When the system consumes 12W, the expected frequency is THIS. Etc.
 
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Well December, considering Christmas, season is almost ending guys.

January is crucial for leaks, be it insiders like Nate, Imran, Emily, bloomberg, nikkei, whatever, we don’t really care.

If their isn’t any news in january or mid february at most, I think new HW for first half 2023 dream is mostly dead.
 
Well December, considering Christmas, season is almost ending guys.

January is crucial for leaks, be it insiders like Nate, Imran, Emily, bloomberg, nikkei, whatever, we don’t really care.

If their isn’t any news in january or mid february at most, I think new HW for first half 2023 dream is mostly dead.
The First Half of 2023 has always been a pipe dream, we would have known a lot by now. I think the earliest the system is out by holiday 2023.
 
The First Half of 2023 has always been a pipe dream, we would have known a lot by now. I think the earliest the system is out by holiday 2023.
Everything is really a dream until we get a credible report from a good source.

Meanwhile, enjoy your switch titles and future games like next Zelda or Fire Emblem.
 
Additionally, and someone please correct me if I’m wrong, RT cores (and the low-effort BVH method they use to generate a ray-traced frame and get Tensor cores to de-noise into something pretty) mean that you save GPU processing that would go toward rendering lights and shadows while producing an image that would never be possible on a PS4 or PS4 Pro. That GPU processing savings can then therefore go to other rendering techniques.
When people say it's comparable to PS4 or something, I sometimes get the impression that the amount of brute-force work pulled off of the CPU and GPU by these hardware-accelerated techniques is not factored in at all. And to a degree, I can understand why, these techniques aren't terribly well understood yet and we have no basis to understand how these techniques perform in dedicated gaming hardware yet.

But when one combines DLSS and RT via RT and Tensor cores, if you're rendering a game natively at 1080p60 on Drake, from what I've read (and please someone correct me if I'm wrong), these accelerators (so long as you have enough of them to render a particular scene) seem like they'd potentially be capable of pushing that native render up to 4K with ray tracing without a framerate dip at a fraction of the GPU power consumption you'd use to do it all natively. Not even PS5 can make claims of being able to achieve a 4K image with RT and no frame rate cut in several games (Demon's Souls, Ratchet & Clank, Spider-Man and DMC5SE being four prime examples, pushing the resolution to UHD 4K with RT on brings the frame rate down to 30fps).
Devil May Cry 5:SE in particular stands out on this list, as that was a 1080p60 game on PS4 and the Special Edition re-release on PS5 does not have any notable visible changes to scene/character geometry or visual effects that I was able to see in comparisons, but even with PS5 being what it is and the game being what it is, Capcom was forced to choose between giving up 4K rendering, ray tracing or 60fps, because it was seemingly not possible to have all 3 simultaneously. Imagine what it means that, in certain circumstances, Nintendo hardware could present fewer sacrifices to visual fidelity than the most recent consoles from Sony and Microsoft. (with the obvious counterpoint that PS5 and XBSX will always be able to push more geometry, of course)

I'm not here to make people overly hopeful, but it's still something worth factoring in, that when we talk about raw base performance, we may be effectively underselling what this can do.
there's a lot of hope in this post. as much as magic DLSS and RT cores are not, games still rely heavily on rasterization and compute performance, which Drake will be lacking in compared to PS5 and even series s. if you want 1080p/60fps with RT on drake, you're gonna have to design for it. likewise, 1080p/60fps with RT isn't going scale to Drake just because you have DLSS and better RT cores. for example, Metro Exodus EE might be 1080p/30 after dlss on Drake, compared to Series S's 1080p/60 after upscaling

The First Half of 2023 has always been a pipe dream, we would have known a lot by now. I think the earliest the system is out by holiday 2023.
it's not like we had anything definitive in the first place. calling it a pipedream isn't the slander you think it is
 
Well December, considering Christmas, season is almost ending guys.

January is crucial for leaks, be it insiders like Nate, Imran, Emily, bloomberg, nikkei, whatever, we don’t really care.

If their isn’t any news in january or mid february at most, I think new HW for first half 2023 dream is mostly dead.


I think it will be best to wait until the end of the upcoming quarter. That way we can get empirical data(i.e. tidbits from Execs or increase is parts etc.) to match whatever leaks people come up with.
 
Well December, considering Christmas, season is almost ending guys.

January is crucial for leaks, be it insiders like Nate, Imran, Emily, bloomberg, nikkei, whatever, we don’t really care.

If their isn’t any news in january or mid february at most, I think new HW for first half 2023 dream is mostly dead.
Yay, more doom.

If Nintendo's plugged the leaks there won't be leaks. Not only that but there's already BEEN so many leaks. Obviously they can't release it until they announce it, but come on. They can announce it any time before launch and it'll still sell out.
 
I wouldn't expect leaks or reports as something that will necessarily happen.

Bloomberg was burned by the OLED fiasco. They'll be extra careful.

Then there's the possibility that the next Switch has the same form factor and reuses a lot of parts from the OLED, including the screen and the dock. Any movement from the supply chain would be ambiguous.

Maybe Nintendo got better at dealing with leaks. Maybe they consolidated the supply chain, reshaped their contracts to tighten NDAs. If there is an anti-leak bonus for all factory workers, any potential leaker would think twice before leaking anything or risk loosing the bonus and the respect of his peers.

By the end of 2021, we had a solid idea of 2022's schedule. Now we know very little about 2023's line-up. They announced Pikmin 4 but couldn't show gameplay, which is odd for a game that releases in less than a year.

I think only the next Direct will give answers. If they reveal a lot more about 2023 and there's no mention of Switch 2, it's safe to assume it's not coming out until at least holiday 2023. If we get a very early Direct to show mostly 3rd-parties and still don't fully reveal TotK and Pikmin, we'll be in doubt for a couple more months.
 
But wouldn't it too good to be true? :p
no? a chip that started design in 2019, releasing in 2023 is about nominal as you can expect. I don't recall Series or PS5 taking longer and they didn't have to contend with Covid. anything longer and you have to start assuming shit went wrong
 
no? a chip that started design in 2019, releasing in 2023 is about nominal as you can expect. I don't recall Series or PS5 taking longer and they didn't have to contend with Covid. anything longer and you have to start assuming shit went wrong
Sorry I realised that wasn't clear, but it was just a joke message
 
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Well December, considering Christmas, season is almost ending guys.

January is crucial for leaks, be it insiders like Nate, Imran, Emily, bloomberg, nikkei, whatever, we don’t really care.

If their isn’t any news in january or mid february at most, I think new HW for first half 2023 dream is mostly dead.
Was August not good enough for you ;) How quickly they forget!
 
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Since i'm about to leave into my holiday vacation until January 9th, and won't be around on the same level as right now for the next two weeks, i'd like to gift everyone in this thread something:

Basilisk-stare---Tommy-Le-012.jpg


The pre-emptive Tommy post. Even if i'm not here, he's always watching you.
Menancingly.
 
I understand that our expectations and speculations are very much focused on performance issues. However, fixing the joy con drift is probably my main expectation for the next console.

It's simply unimaginable that Nintendo wouldn't fix this problem for good.
 
I understand that our expectations and speculations are very much focused on performance issues. However, fixing the joy con drift is probably my main expectation for the next console.

It's simply unimaginable that Nintendo wouldn't fix this problem for good.
I hope they also fix the ergonomics of the joy con or at least release a pro version of it like Hori has but with the HD rumble and such.
 
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I understand that our expectations and speculations are very much focused on performance issues. However, fixing the joy con drift is probably my main expectation for the next console.

It's simply unimaginable that Nintendo wouldn't fix this problem for good.
There is no "for good" solution. Controller drift has always been with us. It has become more common though, across the industry. Joy-Cons are especially vulnerable to it because they're not very thick. It'll be interesting to see if they come up with a solution that is cost effective and small.
 
It's going to be a few heavy days of trying to answer people's questions by sharing information from here that until now most people/places would just respond to with "SHUT UP ABOUT SWITCH PRO".

True, I probably won’t back out immediately after the announcement. I’ll stick around here for a few weeks to see how the conversation pans out here. Fingers crossed it doesn’t get too self righteous in here. It’s been a mess every time something rumored doesn’t come to pass.
 
True, I probably won’t back out immediately after the announcement. I’ll stick around here for a few weeks to see how the conversation pans out here. Fingers crossed it doesn’t get too self righteous in here. It’s been a mess every time something rumored doesn’t come to pass.
We're all going to have heads as big as elephants if all the leaks and subsequent speculation play out as expected. 👽
 
There is no "for good" solution. Controller drift has always been with us. It has become more common though, across the industry. Joy-Cons are especially vulnerable to it because they're not very thick. It'll be interesting to see if they come up with a solution that is cost effective and small.
time to go magnetic or optical!

$100 joy con boyz!
 
If they do fix the analog sticks that's gonna be a drop in replacement that doesn't require further redesign of the Joy-con I think. I really don't expect anything too drastic to happen with the Joy-Cons or any other Nintendo Switch controllers, if they do any sort of redesign I expect it to be a aesthetic change only, with maybe a few minor internal changes. If the system has backwards compatibility, and I see no reason why they wouldn't, they're logically gonna want that hardware to carry over as well. They had no issue selling Wii remotes and accessories under Wii U branding, so frankly I'd expect the same to happen here.

Really the only thing that could be improved I think's the addition of analog triggers, but I just don't see Nintendo doing that. The Joy-cons are already pretty cramped as is, I don't think a analog trigger would be easy to add to that design. And there's little point adding it to the Pro Controller if so few games need it on Switch anyways. Not to mention it's not like they're a new thing, Nintendo have not been putting them into new controllers since the CC Pro, if they wanted them they'd probably have them already.
 
If we had thicker joycons maybe my hands wouldn't fall asleep with pins and needles everytime I played handheld mode, and as an added bonus have analog triggers 😒

Maybe then Smash could finally retire GC controllers too by bringing back analog triggers
 
What do you expect from Drake in regards to ray tracing? That there will be compatibility we know that very likely, but in third parties, on consoles, there are games that don't even give the option on the Series S, or give very limited options even on the X or PS5.
 
What do you expect from Drake in regards to ray tracing? That there will be compatibility we know that very likely, but in third parties, on consoles, there are games that don't even give the option on the Series S, or give very limited options even on the X or PS5.
My expectations are low, like you said memory bandwidth is an issue with RT even on the series S. It will definitely be in Drake, no matter how much better Nvidias RT hardware is.

Stuff like Ray Traced sound like forza horizon is doing, is probably a good use on Drake. And the occasional title using RT shadows.
 
There is no "for good" solution. Controller drift has always been with us. It has become more common though, across the industry. Joy-Cons are especially vulnerable to it because they're not very thick. It'll be interesting to see if they come up with a solution that is cost effective and small.
I have no idea about cost effectiveness but the (rather pricey) Aya Neo Air has contactless sticks and analog triggers in a Switch Lite form factor.
 
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I don't think magnetic Hall sticks are that expensive in reality. I have two GuliKit king kong 2 pro controllers that use them and they are fantastic, they also cost less than a Nintendo Pro controller. Gulikit also has a magnetic Hall joy con stick in testing so it's possible in that form factor. Now this Retroflag gamecube grip has released in China with magnetic Hall sticks and its £42. Retroflag Grip

Also relevant, GuliKit make a set of steam deck hall sensing sticks for £23. This is price to the consumer and it does seem a little high but I'm sure the manufacturing volumes Nintendo would require would result in a far cheaper price per unit.

It's a bit embarrassing that Chinese manufacturing is moving toward this standard before anyone else.

The deadzones on these controllers are fantastic too, almost non existent and some even feature a zero deadzone mode.

Yes, I am a fan boy, not touched the switch pro controller since using these.

Do I think Nintendo will do it? Hell no, but they could.
 
I don't think magnetic Hall sticks are that expensive in reality. I have two GuliKit king kong 2 pro controllers that use them and they are fantastic, they also cost less than a Nintendo Pro controller. Gulikit also has a magnetic Hall joy con stick in testing so it's possible in that form factor. Now this Retroflag gamecube grip has released in China with magnetic Hall sticks and its £42. Retroflag Grip

Also relevant, GuliKit make a set of steam deck hall sensing sticks for £23. This is price to the consumer and it does seem a little high but I'm sure the manufacturing volumes Nintendo would require would result in a far cheaper price per unit.

It's a bit embarrassing that Chinese manufacturing is moving toward this standard before anyone else.

The deadzones on these controllers are fantastic too, almost non existent and some even feature a zero deadzone mode.

Yes, I am a fan boy, not touched the switch pro controller since using these.

Do I think Nintendo will do it? Hell no, but they could.
The reality isn't that it's expensive. It's that all three console makers, wants to keep their crazy high profit margins on accessories.
 
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