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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

WHEN

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Do Nintendo launch GameBoy and GameBoy Color as a combined, single app? They always list the cumulative sales of the systems as one hardware family, so mayhaps they do. Assuming a combined library, I'll guess at 30 launch games. I calculated Nintendo could find a minimum of 70 GB/GBC games without running into rights issues

Before you dig in, remember a few things that makes picking a list difficult: a) third-party contributors to NSO are pretty limited so far b) regional variation on GB/GBC is enormous c) third-parties like Sunsoft (who have released on NSO) did a bunch of licensed games on GameBoy, so might not release much on NSO. I've added a couple of new third parties to NSO, and I've deliberately avoided putting in too many of the same franchise because I think Nintendo will save them so they have some 'high profile' launches coming later down the line; so while Super Mario, Kirby, Donkey Kong, Zelda , Pokemon etc are represented on day one, Nintendo still have other entries in those franchises to add down the line. The addition of Pokemon Gold/Silver, for example, or Super Mario Land 2, or Oracle of Ages/Seasons, or (praise be) Wario Land 3 would be cause for excitement.

Alleyway (GB, 1989/90) [Nintendo]
Atomic Punk/Bomber Boy/Dynablaster (GB, 1990/91) [Hudson Soft]
Blaster Master Boy (GB, 1991/92) [Sunsoft]
Donkey Kong (GB, 1994) [Nintendo]
Donkey Kong Land (GB, 1995) [Nintendo]
Dr. Mario (GB, 1990/91) [Nintendo]
Kid Icarus: Of Myths & Monsters (GB, 1991/92 US/Europe) / Yakuman (GB, Japan-only, 1989) [Nintendo]
Kirby's Dream Land (GB, 1992) [Nintendo]
Mega Man: Dr Wily's Revenge (GB, 1991/92) [Capcom]
Metroid II: Return of Samus (GB, 1991/92) [Nintendo]
Mole Mania (GB, 1996/97) [Nintendo]
Ms. Pac-Man (GB, 1993, US/Europe) / Battlespace (GB, 1992, Japan-only) [Namco]
Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon (GB, 1997/98) [Konami]
Ninja Gaiden Shadow (GB, 1991/92) [Koei-Tecmo]
Pinball: Revenge of the 'Gator (GB, 1989/90) [HAL Laboratory]
Pokemon Red and Blue Versions (GB, 1998/99, US/Europe) / Pokemon Red and Green Versions (GB, Japan-only, 1996) [Nintendo]
Super Mario Land (GB, 1989/90) [Nintendo]
Super Mario Land 3: Wario Land (GB, 1994) [Nintendo]
Wave Race (GB, 1992/97, US/Europe) / GameBoy Wars (GB, Japan-only, 1991) [Nintendo]
Yoshi's Cookie (GB, 1992-94) [Nintendo]
GBC is actually pretty difficult, if I keep following the rule that restricts the number of sequels from Nintendo franchises appearing; without licensed games and without much third-party support, GBC is actually pretty slim pickings. Makes me think we'll get one combined GB/GBC app as well as potentially GBA launching as its own app at the same time. Because of this, I've included some er, interesting choices... By now, I'm also bored of listing/looking for different regional choices, so yeah.
Game & Watch Gallery 3 (GBC, 1999/2000) [Nintendo] only Game & Watch Gallery that was the same globally
Kirby Tilt 'n' Tumble (GBC, 2000/01) [Nintendo] first ever release in Europe
Mario Golf (GBC, 1999) [Nintendo]
Mega Man Xtreme (GBC, 2000/01) [Capcom]
Pokemon Trading Card Game (GBC, 1998/2000) [Nintendo]
Rayman (GBC, 2000) [Ubisoft]
Street Fighter Alpha (GBC, 1999-2001) [Capcom]
Super Mario Bros Deluxe (GBC, 1999/2000) [Nintendo]
Survival Kids (GBC, 1999) [Konami]
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening DX (GBC, 1998) [Nintendo]
Top Gear Pocket (GBC, 1999) [Kemco]

Looking at how limited Nintendo's choices are with GBC especially, I do wonder if we'll see GBA launch at the same time.
 
lucapfstr said:
I think a direct this week is off the cards by now anyway, because I couldn't see it happening on Wednesday or Friday (Apple event and Splatoon). Today was the day they could have announced one for Tuesday, so seems like it's next week. Again I think it'll be on tuesday
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200.gif
 
HeyItsPulse said:
I don’t understand why people think Nintendo couldn’t do a direct right before Splatoon drops. It’s not like Metroid or Zelda being announced for November/December would dissuade anyone from buying Splatoon a day after the direct. It’d actually be more beneficial for them as they would get as many eyes as possible on the game right before it drops, leading to even more sales.

I don’t think we will see a direct this week, because people in the know are saying it’s next week, but we can’t outright rule out this week just because Splatoon releases.
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don't think in terms of why not, think in terms of why. sure, they could have a major marketing event days before the launch of their new flagship software, but why?
 
lucapfstr said:
I think a direct this week is off the cards by now anyway, because I couldn't see it happening on Wednesday or Friday (Apple event and Splatoon). Today was the day they could have announced one for Tuesday, so seems like it's next week. Again I think it'll be on tuesday
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Unless Nintendo is announcing new hardware or is in the apple presentation, they aren’t worried about Apple. Two completely different fields with little overlap in the demographics that are viewing the presentations.
 
True Direct prediction experts know that Nintendo doesn't want to do an event before Splatoon 3. However, Nintendo doesn't want to do an event so close to TGS either.

Hence, Direct is on saturday.
 
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HeyItsPulse said:
Unless Nintendo is announcing new hardware or is in the apple presentation, they aren’t worried about Apple. Two completely different fields with little overlap in the demographics that are viewing the presentations.
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You're totally right, but Apple will dominate the news cycle with their new announcements. So, I really doubt they'd have a direct on the same day
 
Not visited Twitter for few days because of Splatoon 3. Might do the same when Direct is announced next week to not see anything, if something leaks. This is the way to do it.
 
Raccoon said:
don't think in terms of why not, think in terms of why. sure, they could have a major marketing event days before the launch of their new flagship software, but why?
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Nintendo directs, especially generals, bring in way more new eyes than people would think. Putting out a direct with a Splatoon 3 trailer ending with “Out Tomorrow!” will push people that didn’t know about Splatoon 3, forgot about it, or just weren’t going to buy it at launch into a mindset of “Wow this new game releases real soon, I should get it” especially while they are still hyped from the direct itself. It’s similar to shadow drops in indie worlds. People that weren’t typically going to buy this game will likely do so because it’s fresh and available right now/soon.

lucapfstr said:
You're totally right, but Apple will dominate the news cycle with their new announcements. So, I really doubt they'd have a direct on the same day
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Oh yea, I wouldn’t think that they would. If there is one this week it would be Thursday.
 
chocolate_supra said:
Plus I'm sure Holland would appreciate a role where he could use his normal accent for once. 😅


Yeah, he actually was. And not just about Origins, but about the reason it took Sega so long to re-release S3K (which the community sorta assumed) and that they had found a way to overcome that issue (which they did, by using the beta music).

So he must have some connections.
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Was he now...
Screenshot-20220905-134721.jpg
 
Dragoncaine said:
Splatoon 3, my birthday, and an Elton John concert this week, Nate's podcast and the Direct next week, and a trip to Ireland a couple weeks after that. Life is good.
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Dragoncaine…

Um…

I am also going to an Elton John concert this week

PM me
 
To be honest, looking through GB/GBC again has made me think that:

a) GB/GBC will be a single app and will launch alongside GBA
b) all GB/C/A content will be in the Expansion Pack

I don't think Nintendo see the need to add anything to the base tier at this point: NES/SNES, 99 games and online multiplayer has been the fixed offering since 2019. Equally, I think given Nintendo have seemingly worked harder to get third-party licenses on NSO, I suspect that'll apply to the GameBoy family (especially for some higher profile titles from the big Japanese publishers) and so the systems going in to the Expansion Pack is a way of making it pay. Finally, I think Nintendo's primary interest now will be to sell more of the higher cost subscription.

I'd also guess that GBA gets a relatively slim launch line-up - maybe 10 to 12 games - with monthly additions of 1 to 3 games per month, depending on what else is launching across other systems.
 
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tee said:
Not mine, but these mockups seem pretty close to what we'll probably get
gba-switch-online.large.jpg
1280x720.jpg
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Why are the third versions of Gen 1 and 3 included but not Red/Blue and Sapphire/Ruby? Or Gen 2 for that matter?

Getting the original GBC/GBA Pokemon games on NSO with Home integration would be absolutely incredible.
 
Quoted by: tee
1
Sol said:
Why are the third versions of Gen 1 and 3 included but not Red/Blue and Sapphire/Ruby? Or Gen 2 for that matter?

Getting the original GBC/GBA Pokemon games on NSO with Home integration would be absolutely incredible.
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Not my mockup, no clue
 
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GBA is the only system I'll subscribe to NSO for, even with the expansion pack, but I know it won't happen any time soon.

We're mostly getting monochromatic GB games for this year.
 
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HeyItsPulse said:
I don’t understand why people think Nintendo couldn’t do a direct right before Splatoon drops. It’s not like Metroid or Zelda being announced for November/December would dissuade anyone from buying Splatoon a day after the direct. It’d actually be more beneficial for them as they would get as many eyes as possible on the game right before it drops, leading to even more sales.

I don’t think we will see a direct this week, because people in the know are saying it’s next week, but we can’t outright rule out this week just because Splatoon releases.
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We can rule out this week completely because Nintendo almost never does General Directs in the week of a game release. Especially not a franchise as huge as Splatoon.

And I say almost never because I haven't fact checked this but I can't remember any instance of that happening, maybe ARMS and the E3 2017 Direct but apart from that, no idea.
 
GBA NSO launch line-up, deliberately weird style:

F-Zero: Maximum Velocity (2001, Nintendo)
Golden Sun (2001, Nintendo)
Kirby & the Amazing Mirror (2004, Nintendo)
Mario Kart: Super Circuit (2001, Nintendo)
Metroid Fusion (2001, Nintendo)
Pokemon Ruby & Sapphire (2002, Nintendo)
Sonic Advance (2001, Sega)
Super Mario Advance (2001, Nintendo)
Sword of Mana (2003/04, Square Enix)
The Legend of Zelda: Minish Cap (2004/05, Nintendo)
WarioWare Inc: Mega Microgame$! (2003, Nintendo)
Zone of the Enders: The Fist of Mars (2001/02, Konami)
 
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One set of GBA games that would be nice to see again, partly because many never got to experience them because they were Japan only despite having literally zero Japanese text outside of the initial warning screen, are the Bit Generation games.

csj1motovke71.jpg

Some of these games had remakes for WiiWare too, but those are lost to time now (even more so since they were digital only). The series even continued for DSiWare, but since then these quirky minimalist games have been forgotten. Obviously, a collection featuring them all would be best so they could include later games, but I'd be happy with the initial batch on a hypothetical GBA NSO service. Who knows, maybe if they prove popular again we could see Nintendo return to the concept.
 
SirShorse said:
We can rule out this week completely because Nintendo almost never does General Directs in the week of a game release. Especially not a franchise as huge as Splatoon.

And I say almost never because I haven't fact checked this but I can't remember any instance of that happening, maybe ARMS and the E3 2017 Direct but apart from that, no idea.
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They also did it in 2017 with a September Direct the same week as Metroid Samus Returns.
I really don't think it means much anyway, 5 years is a long time and all the most recent Directs happened after big releases, so we should all expect one next week.
 
Quoted by: tee
1
Homura said:
They also did it in 2017 with a September Direct the same week as Metroid Samus Returns.
I really don't think it means much anyway, 5 years is a long time and all the most recent Directs happened after big releases, so we should all expect one next week.
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Samus Returns is a much smaller release compared to Splatoon 3
 
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frog said:
Was he now...
Screenshot-20220905-134721.jpg
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Wait when was that??

I was referring to this one:

zippospeaks.blogspot.com

CONFIRMED! The Next Game In The Sonic Collection Is...

Well well. What do we have here? Told you so. It's back . And I promise you that I'm not shitting you. It was thought to be impossible, b...
zippospeaks.blogspot.com zippospeaks.blogspot.com

where he described the issues with 3K and how they solved them. And this was before the reveal of Origins during the Sonic Central. And that's not a backdate he pulled, I remember reading it before the game was revealed and hoping it was true.

btw his update at the top of "Well well. What do we have here? Told you so." Is exactly the kind of attitude I'm referring to when I say that it's not his track record that bothers me.
 
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When it comes to NSO news, i'm not expecting Pokémon, but i do expect pretty much everything else. DK 94, Minish Cap, a bunch of Metroid games, Golden Sun, Advance Wars, WarioLand etc etc. Probably not all of these at once, but a roadmap containing all of them, sure
 
0
HeyItsPulse said:
Nintendo directs, especially generals, bring in way more new eyes than people would think. Putting out a direct with a Splatoon 3 trailer ending with “Out Tomorrow!” will push people that didn’t know about Splatoon 3, forgot about it, or just weren’t going to buy it at launch into a mindset of “Wow this new game releases real soon, I should get it” especially while they are still hyped from the direct itself. It’s similar to shadow drops in indie worlds. People that weren’t typically going to buy this game will likely do so because it’s fresh and available right now/soon.
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in theory that makes sense, but it's just not something they do. they in fact conspicuously avoid it
 
Imagine if the Nintendo Direct is post-TGS for the first time in 5 years just because lol
 
BY2K said:
It can't be this week, right? Splatoon 3 is right there. Reviews are probably dropping Thursday.
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It’s not this week. This weeks focus is on Splatoon 3. If Nintendo didn’t care about Splatoon 3, to a big degree, they wouldn’t be squeezing the direct in right before TGS next week.
 
HeyItsPulse said:
Nintendo directs, especially generals, bring in way more new eyes than people would think. Putting out a direct with a Splatoon 3 trailer ending with “Out Tomorrow!” will push people that didn’t know about Splatoon 3, forgot about it, or just weren’t going to buy it at launch into a mindset of “Wow this new game releases real soon, I should get it” especially while they are still hyped from the direct itself. It’s similar to shadow drops in indie worlds. People that weren’t typically going to buy this game will likely do so because it’s fresh and available right now/soon.


Oh yea, I wouldn’t think that they would. If there is one this week it would be Thursday.
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Unfortunately that’s not how it would most likely work. It boils down to instead of Nintendo marketing their next big game only it’s launch week-they would be marketing a bunch of other games, and taking away the spotlight from Splatoon. They also would be showing people other games they may want to spend their $60 on instead of Splatoon.
 
Wondering if it could be very early next week. TGS opens on Thursday in Japan right? So maybe Tuesday in the US / Wednesday Japan time for the Direct. (Would be a quick 24 hour notice on Monday but they can make it work)

I am starting to doubt this week if only because in Japan I think Splatoon 3 will be a massive black hole of all consuming hype and maybe Nintendo could be thinking that some big announcements could not gain as much traction in that. (But I really want the Direct sooner lol)
 
Gartooth said:
Wondering if it could be very early next week. TGS opens on Thursday in Japan right? So maybe Tuesday in the US / Wednesday Japan time for the Direct. (Would be a quick 24 hour notice on Monday but they can make it work)

I am starting to doubt this week if only because in Japan I think Splatoon 3 will be a massive black hole of all consuming hype and maybe Nintendo could be thinking that some big announcements could not gain as much traction in that. (But I really want the Direct sooner lol)
Click to expand...
yeah, I'm totally in the camp of Tuesday for the US
 
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