Which movies in particular?
At least for me, Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, and Don't Look Up all scare me as potential heavyweights. Don't Look Up is for sure getting nominated for Picture and Original Screenplay - it has a ton of support in the industry and of course its message is widely admired. For me, it was way too smug in its supposed cleverness and about half an hour too long. And I loved The Big Short, but I think McKay really overswung here.
House of Gucci was a tonal and acting nightmare imo that never figured out what kind of movie it should be. Being the Ricardos was fine, but also not something I would personally champion by any stretch, but I think Kidman will win her 2nd Oscar for it.
To focus on these films when, IMO of course, we have Spencer, Pig, The Green Knight, Mass, Zola, No Time to Die for blockbuster representation, C'mon C'mon, The Last Duel, The Mitchells vs. The Machines, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and Passing is really unfortunate.
The ones that I'm okay with or thrilled about (in order) are:
The Power of the Dog
Coda
West Side Story
Dune
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
Tick Tick Boom
King Richard
How are you feeling about the Oscars this year?