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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST8| Press Your (Nintendo Direct) Luck!

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browneyes84 said:
Why would Nintendo release Metroid Prime 4 on Switch 1 when they can have it as another big release in the first year of Switch 2? From a business point of view, it makes no sense. They'll have a couple of small titles maybe, ports of old games, but a big hitter like MP4? No way.

They've seen what having an incredible year 1 of a new console does to hardware sales, and will want to repeat that. That's their whole focus atm.
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Because the game is not a Switch 2 game and if there's no hardware releasing in 2024, they still need to supply their customers and investors with software for the year to drive sales, they are not going to release nothing.

Prime 4 is likely planned as a Ghost of Tsushima/Last Of Us Part 2 style final major release for the original Switch before the new hardware releases at this point - expecting MP4 to be a next gen game is pure fantasy. I don't think Prime 4 really moves the needle on an incredible year 1 when they have a bunch of other stuff on the way - and as a big release in a quieter year it has more of a chance to have a big impact than it does around launch of Switch 2 as an original Switch game being overshadowed by next gen games like a new Mario etc...
 
browneyes84 said:
Switch 2 wasn't around the corner last year. Circumstances change. How do people expect them to have a load of software for Q3/Q4 when that was supposed to be a new console launch as of a few months ago (allegedly).
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Why not spread the releases of first half throughout the year? Why would you release Endless Ocean and Paper Mario in May, and LM2 in June, only to have the the next 6 months with barely 1-2 releases? We are getting at least 4 Nintendo games in the second half. At. Least.
 
SeaBusCBus said:
Did anyone call this? Don't recall hearing a peep about this.
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Brazil initially said his source told him there (might) be a IndieWorld before general Direct, but the timing was off (Indie World happening in April instead of March). Still, I think there's some truth to what his sources told him.
 
Ab said:
Switch 1 has 140+ million install base. They want to release the game they announced for the system on that system with those numbers
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Yes, and they will... at the same time as they release it on their brand new console.

I think some of you are living in dreamland a bit, with all these expectations.

BlackthornOrion said:
Same reason Sony put out TLoU2 and Ghost of Tsushima on PS4 in 2020 instead of holding them for the PS5 launch

Switch has a huge install base that still buys software. Metroid Prime 4 was probably fairly expensive to make, and historically its not a system selling franchise. So if Prime 4 is ready this year but Switch 2 isn't, why not put it out on Switch 1 this year to sell it to those ~140 million potential customers
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Because Nintendo want Switch 2 to be as successful as Switch 1 and set themselves up for the next 8 years. That's more important to them than selling a Metroid game for a couple more million than that series usually sells.
 
NateDrake said:
This show was not moved. It was always set for April.
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Yeah, that was kinda expected.

This Indie world doesn't feel like the Partner Direct in Feb where the reason for moving it was obvious. Nah, this show was always planned for this date, and past years had indie worlds around this date also.

It seems like Nintendo's general schedule is unmoved except for the fact they don't have as many games to show right now as a result of the focus on Switch 2 software.
 
nikdogged said:
april direct back on the menu? maybe shifted to an early may direct? im putting my bets on thursday the 2nd
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I think Wednesday is the day for this year's events; February PS was Wed Feb 21 and now Indie World is Wed April 17.

That being said, they might not do Wednesday May 1st because of time zone shenanigans with part of the world still in April and the other in May, but Wednesday May 8th (or better yet, 15th to space out events) could hold potential.

Steve said:
So would the general direct then be in May? Or will it be saved for a June showcase.
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I'd like to believe May given the above, but if May 22nd goes by without a whisper then I guess something has to happen for June, and especially so that it means it will be a light year if they have to space out events more than they do games.
 
NateDrake said:
This show was not moved. It was always set for April.
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Makes sense.

I don't post here much so I'm unsure what the prevailing theory is, but I assume that this long (7 month) drought between general, full Directs is because of the hardware delay? I mean, there's nothing on the calendar past June in terms of big first-party releases. It just feels like Nintendo was planning on marketing a new console and now they can't.
 
It’s seeming more and more like Nintendo is on essentially the same “schedule” as normal (February Direct - April Indies - June Direct - August Indies - September Direct) except they “downgraded” the Feb direct to a Partner Showcase due to not having enough substantial First Party software to announce at the time.
 
Neves said:
If the hope/belief of 3rd party support being significantly stronger on the Switch 2 becomes a reality Directs will have a much bigger focus on them than 1st party, and based on some opinions I've read here about recent presentations, I am really dreading their reactions to future ones.
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The thing is, it'll depend if these partners are willing to waste money for the direct for the switch 2, since direct can be a great way to create hype and showcase some phenomal games, but there's a risk of it being overshadowed by different games.

Since i'm in a belief that the third party competition will be massive, since third party have to compete with each others, like ,, my game is 1440p 60fps with DLSS'' or ,, my game is the definitive edition and you'll get the mario costume included''

There's also the stress of the game being overshadowed by Nintendo first party and heck, even from different developers. Like this time around Developers as to showcase why you need to rebuy our games, that you can buy for the PS5 and Xbox with higher resolution and FPS.
 
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aus89 said:
Because the game is not a Switch 2 game and if there's no hardware releasing in 2024, they still need to supply their customers and investors with software for the year to drive sales, they are not going to release nothing.
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if your expecting Prime 4 to "drive sales" this fall you are sorely mistaken.
 
Jbone916 said:
It’s seeming more and more like Nintendo is on essentially the same “schedule” as normal (February Direct - April Indies - June Direct - August Indies - September Direct) except they “downgraded” the Feb direct to a Partner Showcase due to not having enough substantial First Party software to announce at the time.
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Basically one long "It's fine, nothing is happening, just keep playing Mario you suckers".

The quieter it is, the better it is for a Switch 2. The more obvious the signs, the more people will ignore the Switch in favor of whatever comes next.
 
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It’s going to still be in June. We got an Indie almost this exact time last year with the June General one a couple months later.
 
Steve said:
Still surprised we haven't gotten a general direct, since the last one was 7 month ago.
But i'm curios if the May metroid marketing push will be right from jeff grub.
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If it has any merit, it depends what the info meant. Did it mean the marketing push starts in May or did it mean asset preparation & gathering started in May. The latter would mean the marketing starts at a later date, as they'd need to put together the materials for a presentation/tweet, etc...
 
NateDrake said:
If it has any merit, it depends what the info meant. Did it mean the marketing push starts in May or did it mean asset preparation & gathering started in May. The latter would mean the marketing starts at a later date, as they'd need to put together the materials for a presentation/tweet, etc...
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Is "X is when we need to start gathering marketing material to start showing the game off Y" the kind of thing people hear often? I feel like if I was leaking something I'd not even bother mentioning the date when we start gathering assets for marketing, I'd just say "marketing starts Y".
 
Silksong will have a trailer and at the end Hornet's head shatters revealing Samus inside, and the title changes to Metroid 6
 
NateDrake said:
If it has any merit, it depends what the info meant. Did it mean the marketing push starts in May or did it mean asset preparation & gathering started in May. The latter would mean the marketing starts at a later date, as they'd need to put together the materials for a presentation/tweet, etc...
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Definitely sounds more like the latter, with May being (at least at one point) an internal deadline for getting things ready and not necessarily when things start kicking off
As always, let me tell you exactly what I know. First, I don't know if the game is coming out this year. I do not know. As in I'm saying that I don't know, and if you agree I don't know, I won't be mad. But as of LAST YEAR, N was looking to get assets by May of this year.
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Those assets would likely include a CG trailer and possibly a gameplay trailer. Everything about this could've changed since I was last updated. And having assets in hand by May doesn't mean something happens in May. OK. Now you know everything I know. Feel free to ignore me.
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Hard to think it means anything when it comes to a general next month. I do wonder if Brazil's source said March for the indie or that was his assumption. March was kinda strange to me since Nintendo had been doing indie worlds after GDC, not before or the same week. But then again March could've been believable cause this year has been weird.

I do wonder what is to come of Nate's reporting about Nintendo asking 3rd party devs for assets for switch 2 games. I do not know the normal timetable of when Nintendo asks for assets to when they put something out with those assets ala a direct so I couldn't give an educated guess.

While I guess we have 2 signs of maybe Nintendo lining up a reveal in the coming months we're still in limbo and nothing is truly certain from my POV at least.
 
Kartina said:
The direct being in june means that we're probably not getting a july game this year also rip switch 2 reveal in june, we're probably going to see a repeat of the switch 1 announcement to release cycle.
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They could just announce something small on Twitter ala a game builder garage or kirby dream buffet.
 
Kartina said:
The direct being in june means that we're probably not getting a july game this year also rip switch 2 reveal in june, we're probably going to see a repeat of the switch 1 announcement to release cycle.
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I wouldn’t be so sure of that tbh - Nintendo has announced “smaller” titles before with a 1-month or less release date. I still feel that the rumored FE4 remake would be perfect for the July slot.
 
aus89 said:
is Prime 4 hypothetically going to drive sales more than... nothing?
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ah yes Nintendo is famous for releasing only 1 game every fall

they be fine just release a couple of smaller-scale games this fall like in 2020, probably move the needle for hardware sales as much as Prime 4 anyway, unless they got a brand new Mario platformer, zelda or animal crossing nothing going to stop what will probably be a steep drop in switch sales compared to other years
 
BlackthornOrion said:
Definitely sounds more like the latter, with May being (at least at one point) an internal deadline for getting things ready and not necessarily when things start kicking off
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There’s a possibility that having assets in hand by May could be for a possible May General Direct.

And maaaybe Prime 4 could have a dedicated themed Direct the closer we get to it’s release
 
Kartina said:
The direct being in june means that we're probably not getting a july game this year
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they could do something like Metroid Prime Remaster, where there was a digital shadowdrop and then a physical release the next month which would technically give them a July game

Or they could just announce some small e-shop game for July; maybe something like a Pushmo or Boxboy, that kind of thing
 
Jbone916 said:
I wouldn’t be so sure of that tbh - Nintendo has announced “smaller” titles before with a 1-month or less release date. I still feel that the rumored FE4 remake would be perfect for the July slot.
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I meant to write "big july game" but I forgot, yeah they could go with a smaller game announced in june but I definitely don't expect a fire emblem game for july now, a 1 month announcement to release doesn't feel right for that game unless we're getting a much smaller remake than expected (maybe a digital only budget release), I could see the fe4 remake being a game slated for july and then delayed to fill the void left by the switch 2 delay.
I just think we'll get a pretty compact september through november release slate with a june direct and then come september/october we'll finally see some switch 2 related news.
 
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SpaceGodzilla said:
ah yes Nintendo is famous for releasing only 1 game every fall

they be fine just release a couple of smaller-scale games this fall like in 2020, probably move the needle for hardware sales as much as Prime 4 anyway, unless they got a brand new Mario platformer, zelda or animal crossing nothing going to stop what will probably be a steep drop in switch sales compared to other years
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Ah yes... that's exactly what i said...

it's all relative, noone's saying (certainly not me) that it's going to sell anything crazy or be the only game they release.

Prime 4 is about as major a release as I would expect from 2024 and they would want to have a bigger game they can focus on to some extent and show some kind of anticipated release for their audience (and regardless of sales Prime 4 is likely to receive a lot of attention from the "core gamer" media and audience) - and I don't think it really does much for them as a Switch 1 game in 2025 - there is not going to be any meaningfully upgraded cross gen version and the franchise is acclaimed but not a big seller - so positioning it at the end of 2024 makes a lot of sense, especially in a year where there's not much else major releasing for other platforms.
 
Can they not Twittet announce a game before June/May and then give it a proper presentation in a Direct, for a July release
 
SoldierDelta said:
It seems like Nintendo's general schedule is unmoved except for the fact they don't have as many games to show right now as a result of the focus on Switch 2 software.
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I do wonder: Luigi's Mansion 2 HD is the last game they have releasing in june. If they don't have anything to show afterward, and the focus would be on Switch 2 releasing in 2025, that would be such a huge gap, which leds me to think if they're really not gonna release the system in Oktober/November. I know, I know, there are multiple sources saying it is moved to 2025, but it would leave such a great gap from Nintendo themselves.
 
i just want fire emblem soon... hopefully brazil's info miraculously turns out true, but i dont think theres precedent for an indie world and direct one week after another.
 
Darknut85 said:
We should make a poll about how much each of us expects the Indie World to slowdown fami.
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Somewhat during the stream because everyone wants to see if Silksong's there or not.

Afterwards, depends:

If Silksong is shown, very.

If Silksong is shown and shadow-dropped, dead.

If Silksong is now shown, not very much.
 
Bonejack said:
Somewhat during the stream because everyone wants to see if Silksong's there or not.

Afterwards, depends:

If Silksong is shown, very.

If Silksong is shown and shadow-dropped, dead.

If Silksong is now shown, not very much.
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Well, I wouldn’t be that sure if I were you, considering the slowdown when the Direct Mini didn‘t happen.
 
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BloodMoon said:
Was Brazil right all along? (Off by a couple weeks for the indie but w/e)
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Lugia667 said:
maybe brazil source was just off a couple weeks? Plans can shift like that
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Brazil did not definitively say the Indie World was in March, just that it would be before the April Direct and that maybe would put it into late March. The info was "April Direct, Indie World coming first," and March was just his speculation.

Still possible that the Direct is later in April and the info ends up all being true after all. Brazil himself has now said he doubts it, but there's technically still time for it to have all been true.
 
chocolate_supra said:
Still possible that the Direct is later in April and the info ends up all being true after all. Brazil himself has now said he doubts it, but there's technically still time for it to have all been true.
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Which prolly is next week, as april 30th ends on a tuesday, 2 weeks from now. And most Directs are on wednesday's/thursdays, so that leaves only next week as an option I assume.
 
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