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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST8| Press Your (Nintendo Direct) Luck!

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I'm not sure on a Direct this month (as much as I can see some sense in that, like announcing the July title and separating some Switch 1 announcements from a Switch 2 summer showcase), but I am sure we get news on the new console at the investor briefing for the new fiscal year. It does also make me wonder if Nintendo will want a Direct before then too, so I think the window from next week to the first week of May is my first "maybe now yeah" window.

Gonna look weak if Nintendo throw out their fiscal year forecast and their product slate for the year ends in June at Luigi's Mansion 2, though Metroid Prime 4 would be TBA and Pokemon Legends ZA 2025. But that's still an awfully empty slate when Switch is so old and clearly slowing down, so I do expect a formal announcement of new hardware in early May; though I think this will simply be a "new hardware by the end of this fiscal year, please wait for further information" rather than anything else.
 
Kaizo said:
True chaos can only be unlocked if we get no news for Switch software or the next console by the end of June. As fun as it can be to doom, it’s almost a sure thing we will be getting some exciting new stuff within a coupleish months.
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This is what we were all thinking at the beginning of the year😞
 
MisterSpo said:
I'm not sure on a Direct this month (as much as I can see some sense in that, like announcing the July title and separating some Switch 1 announcements from a Switch 2 summer showcase), but I am sure we get news on the new console at the investor briefing for the new fiscal year. It does also make me wonder if Nintendo will want a Direct before then too, so I think the window from next week to the first week of May is my first "maybe now yeah" window.

Gonna look weak if Nintendo throw out their fiscal year forecast and their product slate for the year ends in June at Luigi's Mansion 2, though Metroid Prime 4 would be TBA and Pokemon Legends ZA 2025. But that's still an awfully empty slate when Switch is so old and clearly slowing down, so I do expect a formal announcement of new hardware in early May; though I think this will simply be a "new hardware by the end of this fiscal year, please wait for further information" rather than anything else.
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it is supposed to report their prediction for their entire financial year AKA to march 2025 so a formal announcement of new hardware in may is a near 100% for me
 
They did wait until October to formally reveal the Switch but I feel like they want to continue the momentum of the current console's success.

In short... they'll reveal it when they do.
 
Mekanos said:
They did wait until October to formally reveal the Switch but I feel like they want to continue the momentum of the current console's success.

In short... they'll reveal it when they do.
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what if they reveal it when they don't instead?

like a tweet saying it's releasing in 2028 and then another tweet a week later saying it's in stores now
 
Marce-chan said:
Tbh I think Donkey Kong and Metroid Prime 4 are way more needed this year than they'd be needed next year as cross gen titles. Mario will carry the launch day and first couple of months, Mario Kart will be the absolute biggest exclusive release on holiday 2025, Pokémon Legends Z-A will carry the summer or another fall month, there will probably be something from Monolith Soft, a new IP and stuff we don't expect.

Nintendo is definitely saving all system selling software for next gen exclusivity or cross gen, but niche stuff that sells well and reviews outstandingly (MP4) and big sellers that don't really move a lot of hardware (Donkey Kong and Mario Party) would greatly benefit from releasing on a huge install base and be more useful on a year that's more about selling software than hardware.
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That's an excellent point. But even if we'd all be jumping for joy if Nintendo's end-of-year program consisted of WWHD/TPHD, Prime 4 and EPDK, in commercial terms, the combined sales of Tropical Freeze, Metroid Dread and Skyward Sword HD are barely higher than the total sales of Mario Party Superstars, not to mention the 20 million copies sold by Super Mario Party.

Even though Mario Party has come up a lot in the conversation lately as a possibility, I'm a bit lukewarm because it's an absolute evergreen , which makes me question the relevance of releasing one at the very end of a life cycle.

However, variety and complementarity count for a lot at a console launch, and that's the big argument that makes me think Prime 4 would be useful when the Switch 2 comes out. So, we'll see. In short, I'm convinced that there will be at least one big new game for the end of 2024, although I have no idea which one it will be.

If I were a bit cynical, I'd say that even DKCR HD, and WW/TP HD could sell better than Princess Peach Showtime.
 
boodream said:
That's an excellent point. But even if we'd all be jumping for joy if Nintendo's end-of-year program consisted of WWHD/TPHD, Prime 4 and EPDK, in commercial terms, the combined sales of Tropical Freeze, Metroid Dread and Skyward Sword HD are barely higher than the total sales of Mario Party Superstars, not to mention the 20 million copies sold by Super Mario Party.

Even though Mario Party has come up a lot in the conversation lately as a possibility, I'm a bit lukewarm because it's an absolute evergreen , which makes me question the relevance of releasing one at the very end of a life cycle.

However, variety and complementarity count for a lot at a console launch, and that's the big argument that makes me think Prime 4 would be useful when the Switch 2 comes out. So, we'll see. In short, I'm convinced that there will be at least one big new game for the end of 2024, although I have no idea which one it will be.

If I were a bit cynical, I'd say that even DKCR HD, and WW/TP HD could sell better than Princess Peach Showtime.
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Releasing a new Mario party game, make so much sense, it makes me want to cry and the worst part they'll add 4 boards and sell it for 60 bucks and call it a day.

stare-christian-bale.gif
 
Nintendo will shadowdrop the April Direct as Springsteen belts the final line of Thunder Road at my concert on 4/18, "IT'S A TOWN FULL OF LOSERS, AND I'M PULLING OUT OF HERE TO WIIIIIIIIIN," and the opener is Mario Kart 9 for Spring 2025.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
it is supposed to report their prediction for their entire financial year AKA to march 2025 so a formal announcement of new hardware in may is a near 100% for me
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Exactly. Difficult to see a forecast for hardware without new hardware accounted for. And I do wonder if Nintendo want more Switch software announced before then, too, because 2024's slate is the weakest since 2016, commercially speaking. And right now only 1 quarter of the new fiscal year has products in it.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
it is supposed to report their prediction for their entire financial year AKA to march 2025 so a formal announcement of new hardware in may is a near 100% for me
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Except if they are to release on April 2025, then it enters just on the next fiscal year, what makes them free to announce it just at the end of year.
 
We will all be fine in the end, but man, this is boring. I'll be quiet and play my switch when TTYD comes out, but I hope Nintendo has plans to share before then.
 
tetsugo said:
Except if they are to release on April 2025, then it enters just on the next fiscal year, what makes them free to announce it just at the end of year.
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The production, management , pre-sales, and a bit of marketing will still happen would begin in the FY, which would have significant impacts, so they would probably still need to inform their shareholders anyway. Unless it's further out than we expected like Summer/Fall 2025, then we won't hear anything.
 
My original hope for a Direct was this week, but I don't mind it being next week. I just wanted it in Early-April because I don't have a lot of things to look forward to until the end of the month, and I was hoping the news cycle and hype could get me to then. But life will go on regardless, and I'm sure I'll be fine.

Nintendo will be fine, obviously, and we will too once we get more information, whenever it comes.
 
bixente said:
If you're desperate for something to play, there's some amazing games on sale atm.

Yooka Laylee and the Impossible Lair is $3.

Sparks of Hope is 70% off.

Some really good Metroidvanias on sale:
Vernal Edge
Haiku, the Robot
Islets
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Impossible Lair rules. For $3, anyone who likes platformers (esp. Donkey Kong Country) should absolutely give it a shot
 
BassForever said:
In what ways do you think the marketing is bad? How exactly can you prove that the current Switch marketing strategies aren't working, or that they didn't work during the Wii and DS era?
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This kind of statement is hard to prove either way, but
1) last year the only time I even saw a Nintendo advertisement outside of gaming spheres (directs, Nintendo’s YouTube page, Nintendo’s Twitter page) was just for Zelda
2) the commercials themselves are just bad imo, that’s subjective but advertising’s success is kind of subjective by definition. Just my opinion!
 
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Number1000DKFan said:
This kind of statement is hard to prove either way, but
1) last year the only time I even saw a Nintendo advertisement outside of gaming spheres (directs, Nintendo’s YouTube page, Nintendo’s Twitter page) was just for Zelda
2) the commercials themselves are just bad imo, that’s subjective but advertising’s success is kind of subjective by definition. Just my opinion!
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This comes off as super subjective on your part, especially in an era where so much of the advertisements we see are algorithm driven. This isn't even considering the fact many people use ad blockers, pay for no ad premium services, or avoid places where advertisements are still common like broadcast tv or radio.

Also when the only marketing you saw was for a game that sold 10+ million copies in 3 days and 20 million copies by December 2023, I think we can say the marketing did its job of getting the word out :p
 
Dragoncaine said:
Nintendo will shadowdrop the April Direct as Springsteen belts the final line of Thunder Road at my concert on 4/18, "IT'S A TOWN FULL OF LOSERS, AND I'M PULLING OUT OF HERE TO WIIIIIIIIIN," and the opener is Mario Kart 9 for Spring 2025.
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If I was seeing Springsteen and a direct shadowed dropped during Thunder Road it would be one of the greatest nights of my life. Thunder Road is my favorite song of all time.
 
bixente said:
If you're desperate for something to play, there's some amazing games on sale atm.

Yooka Laylee and the Impossible Lair is $3.

Sparks of Hope is 70% off.

Some really good Metroidvanias on sale:
Vernal Edge
Haiku, the Robot
Islets
Click to expand...
If it doesnt have Belda in the title I dont care for it
 
The earth is flat. Having people in space looking at earth, confirming it's round, and sending pictures proving it doesn't mean it's remotely true. I've never seen a round earth myself. It's all subjective by definition.
 
BassForever said:
This comes off as super subjective on your part, especially in an era where so much of the advertisements we see are algorithm driven. This isn't even considering the fact many people use ad blockers, pay for no ad premium services, or avoid places where advertisements are still common like broadcast tv or radio.

Also when the only marketing you saw was for a game that sold 10+ million copies in 3 days and 20 million copies by December 2023, I think we can say the marketing did its job of getting the word out :p
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Okay but I don’t use ad blockers, pay for no ad premium services, or avoid places where advertisements are still common like tv

So yeah the advertising should have reached me

Also Zelda is one the most famous game series ever and TOTK was a direct sequel to an enormously successful game, so again it’s hard to say how much advertising actually did (but I do acknowledge that there was real effort there)
 
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HockeyBird said:
The earth is flat. Having people in space looking at earth, confirming it's round, and sending pictures proving it doesn't mean it's remotely true. I've never seen a round earth myself. It's all subjective by definition.
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If you can’t tell the difference between a science and an art I really don’t know what to tell you
 
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Number1000DKFan said:
This kind of statement is hard to prove either way, but
1) last year the only time I even saw a Nintendo advertisement outside of gaming spheres (directs, Nintendo’s YouTube page, Nintendo’s Twitter page) was just for Zelda
2) the commercials themselves are just bad imo, that’s subjective but advertising’s success is kind of subjective by definition. Just my opinion!
Click to expand...
I see so many Nintendo advertisements. Several per week on youtube (not Nintendo's channel, just youtube in general), and they play before maybe every other movie I go see (when I go to the big theater in the city that actually plays commercials).

As far as how "bad" they are, they seem to be pretty much in-line with the types of slightly corny commercials I see on TV all the time. They aren't as cool as, like, an E3 trailer or something, but outside of Directs Nintendo is mostly marketing to the mainstream audiences so cutesy commercials that make it seem like a family toy make sense.

I mean just while I was typing this the TV had a commercial where a CGI penguin in glasses jumped around like a cheerleader spelling the name of something to do with eyewear. Hell, Nintendo commercials are actually often less cringey than what I tend to see 😅
 
The marketing was also criticized in spring 2020 when the internet was upset because Nintendo left it in the dark about the rest of the year and its future plans. Nintendo instead just decided to release what's to become the best selling videogame ever in Japan.
 
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