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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

WHEN

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Marce-chan said:
And they did 3 Metroid games 3 times quicker than the gap between Prime 3 and Prime Remake 😳.
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There is that other universe where the switch released in 2012 and prime 3 and other m was like great and both sold like 5 million copies and we got like 10 metroid games from 2010 to 2017
 
Comic Obsessed said:
Might make more sense once reviews hit.
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I mean, that highly varies. The type of game Splatoon is just isn't getting to 90+. The kind of game Zelda is and the bias and prestige on it will.

The gaps also don't mean anything as the gap between Galaxy 1 and 2 was 2.5 years and both did 97 MC.

There are games with loooooong hype cycles loooooong reveal to release and loooooong gaps that don't live up to expectations, like Final Fantasy XV(I think?).

Also, Splatoon definitely doesn't fit that category, as gap between 2 and 3 will be more than 5 years and Zelda is only experiencing that kinda gap now.
 
People really think Nintendo would wait until their next console to make another game for their fastest growing IP? When you see this kinda growth you CAPITALIZE on it, you don't just let that series sit there for like 7 years.
 
Raccoon said:
Splatoon fans and Zelda fans are actually in a very similar situation of waiting over five years for a sequel that's basically the same game

and both will defend their respective derivative sequels until the end of time
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Comic Obsessed said:
Splatoon fans are the new Pokemon fans.
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Starphanluke said:
Mods, ban this animal
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Just to add further fuel to this, one could remind that in 2019 Zelda had a sequel announced already and a new remake releasing (also true for every other year since 2013) while Splatoon fans were in the "let's cope with the support of the game being done and we not getting another Splatoon until the next console" situation.
 
karmitt said:
The main concern I’d have is whether they can shop out the next title easily. there’s no reason to assume Mercury Steam will just continue to make Metroids right?
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This will be a big issue in the future and the reason why I dont expect Metroid VI anytime soon even in a 4-5 year range. Mercury Steam already took a big deal with 505 to make a big WRPG so almost all the resources will go there at least during almost a whole console generation
 
Lucyfer said:
People really think Nintendo would wait until their next console to make another game for their fastest growing IP? When you see this kinda growth you CAPITALIZE on it, you don't just let that series sit there for like 7 years.
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I'd love to think that the new players will be interested in "just more Splatoon," but the lack of anything that's shall we say 'marketably new' gives me pause

as a new fan I'm just happy that I got into the series right before a new game with two years of support
 
Yeah I don't see how "Splatoon fans are the new Zelda/Pokemon fans" works. Both of those series get (near-)yearly releases, Splatoon hasn't had a new game for 5 (and no new content for 3+) years.
 
Raccoon said:
as a new fan I'm just happy that I got into the series right before a new game with two years of support
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A lot of the opinions I see are actually similar to this or "oh I can't wait to try out the series, I'll bite now that I know I'll be playing an actively supported game"
 
Lucyfer said:
A lot of the opinions I see are actually similar to this or "oh I can't wait to try out the series, I'll bite now that I know I'll be playing an actively supported game"
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yeah, it's a huge tossup for armchair analysts like me lol

will it be seen as more of the same by the broader audiences, or will swaths of new people give it a shot?
 
Can't wait for Zelda fans to hate on botw after the release of Botw2 (in 2024), that's just how the cycle works and the fact that's going to be a direct sequel will just make it worse
 
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Lucyfer said:
I think it's a sequel for fans and for the ~60 million people who got a switch after Splatoon 2 stopped receiving content updates :)
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Myself included!! Splatoon 2 was a launch window title and while it got legs, the Switch install base just grown insanely. They're going big with 3 and we could see by the reveal trailer alone, thematic and everything, graphical update, bigger city, etc.
It's getting an almost holiday season launch, bigger than ever reveal to release cycle and heavy promotion.
People are gonna get they head exploding when they see it's gonna sell even more than 2. And that's not even a hard prediction to make going from first quarter/year sales of games earlier on the Switch life and now.
 
I'm guessing 83-85 for Splatoon 3. The improved quantity of content and extra additions will be praised, but I doubt it has the legs to push beyond that. Splatoon has been a low 80s franchise up to this point, and nothing in Splatoon 3 really looks to break that barrier IMO.

In terms of sales, I'm guessing 10M-15M. Won't be meaningfully higher or lower than Splatoon 2.
 
Raccoon said:
yeah, it's a huge tossup for armchair analysts like me lol

will it be seen as more of the same by the broader audiences, or will swaths of new people give it a shot?
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personally I'm on team "pandemic console buyers will make this game a raging success" but we'll see, I very much acknowledge that it may not do crazy numbers but I'm not expecting anything close to what you could call "poor sales" either lol
 
Blue Monty said:
This will be a big issue in the future and the reason why I dont expect Metroid VI anytime soon even in a 4-5 year range. Mercury Steam already took a big deal with 505 to make a big WRPG so almost all the resources will go there at least during almost a whole console generation
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Oh I didn't know that... So probably there's no new 2D Metroid being made there :(

Idk how they've worked on the past tho? We're they making any other game from 2017-2021?

I think Nintendo will definitely find a way tho. Dread sold more than 3m and for less than it(Prime) Nintendo secured Metroid almost annually from 2002 to 2010.

They certainly have other capable teams for it, if they make it a priority (which they will):
  • Next Level Games: after finishing up Strikers, maybe they won't go all the way to Luigi's Mansion 4;
  • Good Feel can make it too?
  • idk what Retro will do after Prime 4 but Prime 5 looks like the logical step if it sells good;
  • Koei Tecmo. With the criticism Other M got, how Dread turned, I think they'd do greatly.
 
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Thunder84 said:
I'm guessing 83-85 for Splatoon 3. The improved quantity of content and extra additions will be praised, but I doubt it has the legs to push beyond that. Splatoon has been a low 80s franchise up to this point, and nothing in Splatoon 3 really looks to break that barrier IMO.

In terms of sales, I'm guessing 10M-15M. Won't be meaningfully higher or lower than Splatoon 2.
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Splatoon 1 and 2 suffered from the perception of being light on content at launch. This is one area where I think Splatoon 3 is going to be much better received.
 
Blue Monty said:
This will be a big issue in the future and the reason why I dont expect Metroid VI anytime soon even in a 4-5 year range. Mercury Steam already took a big deal with 505 to make a big WRPG so almost all the resources will go there at least during almost a whole console generation
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They also had a pretty negative report on their work environment come out after Dread:
https://www.thegamer.com/metroid-dread-mercurysteam-culture-of-punishment/

I just kind of work off of the assumption that Nintendo dropping them, or them not making room for another Metroid are both plenty likely.
 
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something a splatoon youtuber pointed out that I wasn't really aware of is that splatoon 2 was absolutely abysmally light at launch, far worse than 3

3 at least has the additions of 2 to rest on
 
SpookyTango said:
Splatoon 1 and 2 suffered from the perception of being light on content at launch. This is one area where I think Splatoon 3 is going to be much better received.
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This one will suffer because it's more derivative from splatoon2 so I guess a 83-85 will be the sweetspot.
Of course no 90+ because of the curse
 
Thunder84 said:
I'm guessing 83-85 for Splatoon 3. The improved quantity of content and extra additions will be praised, but I doubt it has the legs to push beyond that. Splatoon has been a low 80s franchise up to this point, and nothing in Splatoon 3 really looks to break that barrier IMO.

In terms of sales, I'm guessing 10M-15M. Won't be meaningfully higher or lower than Splatoon 2.
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I think the fact that it will release with a ton of content already, plus is fixing most of the main criticisms on 2(the advantages of being an iterative sequel, just look at Smash Ultimate) might push it to high 80s(the damned number 89 is my guess).
 
The buzz for Splatoon 3 is definitely muted from what I’ve seen. I’m sure it will do well in Japan, but I’m not sure how it will do elsewhere compared to 2. The dedicated Direct didn’t do it any huge favors by mostly presenting it as Splatoon 2 again…when they could have at least better presented it as Splatoon 2 again but you can fully enjoy all modes with friends. (“Check the website for more details!” at multiple points was a terrible decision. Those details were good! They should have just said them!)

I think we are waiting to see how the Splatfest demo is received before we get a clearer picture.
 
I really hope there's a Bayonetta 3 segment in the next General Direct at the very least. I was hoping the game would have gone kinda open world like Nier: Automata to differentiate itself from the previous entries. As it is, it doesn't seem that exciting (especially compared to something like Astral Chain that actually did pretty new stuff).
 
If there's a game that I'm actually very optimistic about is Mario+Rabbids: Sparks of Hope. It feels like an actual evolution of what was already a pretty solid game (and this is just the second entry in the series for God's sake!)
 
Just give me Advance Wars. We're getting games like WARZONE 2 and MODERN WAREFARE 2 with hyper realistic graphics and killing getting released later this year....but no, it's the cartoony strategy game that gets sidelined.

Release the damn game, Nintendo.
 
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Raccoon said:
Splatoon fans and Zelda fans are actually in a very similar situation of waiting over five years for a sequel that's basically the same game

and both will defend their respective derivative sequels until the end of time
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So then the only solution is to be a Splatoon Fan and a Zelda Fan. Nothing to defend, just happiness.
 
Sol said:
Just give me Advance Wars. We're getting games like WARZONE 2 and MODERN WAREFARE 2 with hyper realistic graphics and killing getting released later this year....but no, it's the cartoony strategy game that gets sidelined.

Released the damn game, Nintendo.
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And Xenoblade Chronicles 3 core theme is about war.

And that was reverse delayed even.

(Thanks for not delaying it Nintendo!)
 
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Sol said:
Just give me Advance Wars. We're getting games like WARZONE 2 and MODERN WAREFARE 2 with hyper realistic graphics and killing getting released later this year....but no, it's the cartoony strategy game that gets sidelined.

Released the damn game, Nintendo.
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The problem with advance wars is that the game starts with the fake russian faction invading another nation.
That's the biggest problem for the game, it does make me sad that advance wars is still MIA and I hope they'll release it at least for december. The series deserves better.
 
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xghost777 said:
The buzz for Splatoon 3 is definitely muted from what I’ve seen. I’m sure it will do well in Japan, but I’m not sure how it will do elsewhere compared to 2. The dedicated Direct didn’t do it any huge favors by mostly presenting it as Splatoon 2 again…when they could have at least better presented it as Splatoon 2 again but you can fully enjoy all modes with friends. (“Check the website for more details!” at multiple points was a terrible decision. Those details were good! They should have just said them!)

I think we are waiting to see how the Splatfest demo is received before we get a clearer picture.
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I don‘t think that the shared opinion of delusional Nintendo fans (and yes I include us too) ever was an indication how well a game will perform.

I mean it is all a question of perception.

The Splatoon IP has mainstream appeal and Nintendo knows that. Let‘s not forget they have an installbase of 100 Million Switch Users and many of them probably didn‘t even know much about Splatoon until now. With returning fans and new players I see this being a very big game in terms of sales.

Guess we‘ll see when the game releases how well it does, but I‘m optimistic.
 
This might be an unpopular idea, but I was just thinking of something that I personally would kinda like to see as a sorta "in between bigger entries" release for Mario, that being a new version of the original Super Mario All Stars. Like complete remakes of Mario 1, 2, 3, and even World with new graphics for today that still keep to the aesthetic of each game. I think that'd be fun.
 
So since pretty much no one is expecting Direct news this week... will anything at all happen this week? Maybe Indie World? Or is it going to be quiet as we roll into Direct time soon?
 
Marce-chan said:
I think the fact that it will release with a ton of content already, plus is fixing most of the main criticisms on 2(the advantages of being an iterative sequel, just look at Smash Ultimate) might push it to high 80s(the damned number 89 is my guess).
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I’d be shocked if it scores high 80s. The previous games would’ve done better if the core gameplay loop was favorable enough to critics for it to score so highly. Smash for Wii U scored pretty much identically to Ultimate.

I just don’t think critics are particularly into Splatoon like the fanbase is. They certainly enjoy it, but until there’s some crazy new additions I don’t see the score improving all that much. It’ll be received positively overall, but I just don’t envision it breaking into that next tier.
 
Thunder84 said:
I’d be shocked if it scores high 80s. The previous games would’ve done better if the core gameplay loop was favorable enough to critics for it to score so highly. Smash for Wii U scored pretty much identically to Ultimate.

I just don’t think critics are particularly into Splatoon like the fanbase is. They certainly enjoy it, but until there’s some crazy new additions I don’t see the score improving all that much. It’ll be received positively overall, but I just don’t envision it breaking into that next tier.
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splat 3 will probably get an 83 or less. There were multiple games on the switch that we all thought would score much better than their predecessors: Metroid Dread, Luigi's Mansion 3, etc.
 
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SammyJ9 said:
So since pretty much no one is expecting Direct news this week... will anything at all happen this week? Maybe Indie World? Or is it going to be quiet as we roll into Direct time soon?
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I started doubting Indie World this week because it is also Gamescom week which is going to suck up a lot of attention.

My guess:

This week Gamescom

Next week Indie World

Following week Nintendo Direct and Splatoon

Week after that TGS
 
xghost777 said:
I started doubting Indie World this week because it is also Gamescom week which is going to suck up a lot of attention.

My guess:

This week Gamescom

Next week Indie World

Following week Nintendo Direct and Splatoon

Week after that TGS
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This makes a lot of sense, although I still kind of think the Direct might be the week you have Indie World and not the following week. If that's the case, they could just flip them, I suppose. Either way I'd be very happy with that.
 
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