I haven't been following the rumours at all, but this feels like such a win-win direct. If it's great, great.
If it's weak, that just means the Switch 2 reveal will be even better with whatever games they're holding back.
Hoping to see F-Zero GX and Prime 2, but not Prime 4. Save that for the Switch 2 reveal.
BUUUTTT... If they were to show MP4, and show it running at an obviously better-than-Switch fidelity (like, very obvious, 4k resolution and lighting/texturing way beyond MP Remastered) that would be such a sick way to soft-confirm the imminent reveal of a new console. Just date it "2024" and leave people guessing.
They would 100% not do that, but I can dream.