Very late here, but I wanted to give my input lol
Locks:
Likely*:
Wild cards:
- Starfield
- Diablo IV
- SF6
- Silksong
*I think Spider-man 2 is pretty much a lock
if it releases. I think XVI has a very good shot but I don't have the pre-release confidence in it that I do Zelda and Spider-man
As for the others; I don't think Jedi or Octopath really have a shot given the stacked year and the fact their predecessors did not get the nod. Dead Space feels like it didn't make enough of an impact, but I could be wrong.
I've seen people mention Hades 2, but AFAIK that's only releasing early access this year. It will have a very good shot of getting nominated whenever it gets a full release though.