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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST4| Tears of the Speculation

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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Makes very little sense to me. Nintendo first party software is what will separate this from the Steam Deck. Nintendo releasing a new console where

3D Zelda isn't until early 2028 at the earliest
3D Mario isn't until late 2027 at the earliest
Who knows about Mario Kart because of the current DLC plans
Who knows about Smash

With the launch in late 2024? Does not seem likely at all.
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devil's advocate, if they have some sort of plan for smash in the works that would be a very compelling day one exclusive
 
Raccoon said:
you'll be less smug when 3D Mario stays MIA
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In all seriouness I was strong doubter of Zelda with Drake or whatever that was on launch date, and after reading countless theories that Zelda was postponed only because hardware etc. My understanding was late 2023 with new 3D Mario, but that seems like it's not happening.
 
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Raccoon said:
devil's advocate, if they have some sort of plan for smash in the works that would be a very compelling day one exclusive
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The licensing issues, the struggle for Smash to develop more compelling online and single player content, and the situation with Sakurai make it very difficult to determine what they're going to do for the next Smash.

But it is possible they have something planned for 2024 and 2025.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Makes very little sense to me. Nintendo first party software is what will separate this from the Steam Deck. Nintendo releasing a new console where

3D Zelda isn't until early 2028 at the earliest
3D Mario isn't until late 2027 at the earliest
Who knows about Mario Kart because of the current DLC plans
Who knows about Smash

With the launch in late 2024? Does not seem likely at all.
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There's other games the system could launch with? Mario Kart is probably in early production right now. Pokemon will have a game in 2025 guarenteed. Xenoblade could be ready in late 2025/early 2026. Splatoon and Animal Crossing would be done in time for launch. Nintendo Switch Sports 2, Luigi's Mansion 4, Metroid 6, who knows how far DK is along right now, 2D Mario, 3D Kirby, any Mario Sports game. Should I go on?
 
2025 seems absurd to me but hey, I trust in Nate. we shall wait and see i guess, without holding our breath
 
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I feel like if there's a new 3D Mario on the Switch this year, it would be Odyssey 2 or something else but nothing actually brand new, cause I'd imagine they'd be saving that for next generation. Odyssey is the best selling 3D Mario by an incredible margin so I don't see them doing a brand new 3D Mario on a system that already has one.

So... definitely betting new 3D Mario within the first 2 years of the next gen console, whenever that is.
 
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Switch 2 commercial song lyrics

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Tears of the kingdom will look good on Switch who care. And when the next console will be backward compatible it will be amazing to replay the 2 games.

And for ToTK marketing cycle. God of War R got it's marketing started pretty late and it worked. 3D all star same thing. Information gets out so much faster now they could start only 2 months before the game releases and it would be fine.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The licensing issues, the struggle for Smash to develop more compelling online and single player content, and the situation with Sakurai make it very difficult to determine what they're going to do for the next Smash.

But it is possible they have something planned for 2024 and 2025.
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yeah, I see it as an outsourced project with no resemblance to ultimate and little involvement from sakurai

just a brand new smash from somewhere (though probably still bandai namco)
 
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Magic-Man said:
There's other games the system could launch with? Mario Kart is probably in early production right now. Pokemon will have a game in 2025 guarenteed. Xenoblade could be ready in late 2025/early 2026. Splatoon and Animal Crossing would be done in time for launch. Nintendo Switch Sports 2, Luigi's Mansion 4, Metroid 6, who knows how far DK is along right now, 2D Mario, 3D Kirby, any Mario Sports game. Should I go on?
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I see almost none of those games except Pokemon and Animal Crossing being massive system sellers though (Splatoon will probably be around 2026 though it will sell systems) and Pokemon will surely be cross-gen. These are like 5m sellers or games that don't push hardware.

The Switch 2 just not having any of its 25m+ selling franchises on it (except maybe Animal Crossing?) until late 2027 or later? Baffling plan when Nintendo relies so much on first-party software.
 
LukasManak22 said:
Splatoon 3 getting new catalogue until September 2024. It was in front of as all long.
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In all honesty I 100% agree, no way we get new hardware until Splatoon support is over, if anything, I see the game's support ending, and Splatoon 4 launching a few short months later for the new system
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I see almost none of those games except Pokemon and Animal Crossing being massive system sellers though (Splatoon will probably be around 2026 though it will sell systems) and Pokemon will surely be cross-gen. These are like 5m sellers or games that don't push hardware.

The Switch 2 just not having any of its 25m+ selling franchises on it (except maybe Animal Crossing?) until late 2027 or later? Baffling plan when Nintendo relies so much on first-party software.
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Mario Kart? Maybe Smash as well (although that is a LOT more uncertain). There's also the possibility of remakes to fill the gap. Ocarina of Time being the big one.
 
Raccoon said:
y'know I feel like I did suggest this at some point

holiday 2024 always made more sense than holiday 2023
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I mean, if anything it was weird to me that they were launching new Splatoon game in 9.2022 when the new hardware would come 8 months after that (May 2023). Holiday 2023 at least made some sense with possible 3D Mario(?).
 
You all laughed at us when we said late 2024/early 2025 for next console, yet here we are !

I think 2D Mario is this holiday title and a big ass 3D Mario game will be the next console launch title, but I won't be surprised if it's the other way around.

People in enthusiast forums underestimate the power of 2D Mario. A good, interesting new 2D Mario tied with the launch of an interesting new console could make for an insane launch. (Along with another more core-focused first party game)

The instance of Wii U/NSMBU doesn't count. It was the fucking Wii U and fucking New Super Mario Bros again lol

And like Raccoon said, I wouldn't be surprised if they have a Smash game for around launch. Ultimate was in december 2018. And DLC ended in october 2021.
And Mario Kart shouldn't be that far off. 8 Deluxe DLC is very obviously just there to make us wait until the next one tied to the new console. It's mostly reworked Tour races. Mario Kart is 100% a launch year title imo.

So I won't be surprised if 3D Mario is this year. They still have options for a new console that is 2 years off.
 
LukasManak22 said:
Splatoon 3 getting new catalogue until September 2024. It was in front of as all long.
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Raccoon said:
y'know I feel like I did suggest this at some point

holiday 2024 always made more sense than holiday 2023
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I'm lowkey feeling kinda vindicated right now. I've been bringing the DLC argument up for months but everyone told me the system would be backwards compatible so it didn't matter. It made me feel like an idiot. But now....
 
Magic-Man said:
Mario Kart? Maybe Smash as well (although that is a LOT more uncertain). There's also the possibility of remakes to fill the gap. Ocarina of Time being the big one.
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yeah I think a lot of people are underestimating when Mario Kart NeXt is at the stage of development. The releasing of Booster Course Pass means absolutely nothing in this respect, since the courses are obviously not developed that long. New Hardware could very well launch with Mario Kart in 2024.
 
Magic-Man said:
Mario Kart? Maybe Smash as well (although that is a LOT more uncertain). There's also the possibility of remakes to fill the gap. Ocarina of Time being the big one.
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Mario Kart and Smash are possible, but both are in a weird place right now that make it hard to speculate.

But even with Mario Kart and Smash, 3D Mario and 3D Zelda are Nintendo's two defining prestige franchises and it does feel weird to release a new console that doesn't have either until... late 2027 at the absolute earliest?
 
I think the fact Sakurai is taking the long needed break he deserves makes me feel like the next Smash Bros isn't for another 3 years at the absolute earliest. They COULD get someone else but I don't know, I don't see that being easy and I doubt one's in development now. Series itself kinda needs a break too.
 
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Magic-Man said:
I'm lowkey feeling kinda vindicated right now. I've been bringing the DLC argument up for months but everyone told me the system would be backwards compatible so it didn't matter. It made me feel like an idiot. But now....
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nobody wanted to believe the resident doomer was right

but it's your world, we're just living in it
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Mario Kart and Smash are possible, but both are in a weird place right now that make it hard to speculate.

But even with Mario Kart and Smash, 3D Mario and 3D Zelda are Nintendo's two defining prestige franchises and it does feel weird to release a new console that doesn't have either until... late 2027 at the absolute earliest?
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The TotK was scheduled to launch in 2022 or maybe even Holiday 2021 (pre-covid). So the reasoning is kinda out of place. If the TotK had launched in 2022 (as publicly intended) it would still launch without hardware and when the new hardware would come out people will still be waiting years for the next entry.
 
9-Volt said:
My own guess for this year's big Mario game is Mario vs DK, simply named as Mario vs Donkey Kong 23. An ode to one of the best Game Boy games ever made, a true successor. Will have both 3D and 2D stages and option to play as Movie Mario and Movie DK. And a custom stage maker.
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Throwing all of my money at the screen rn
 
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LukasManak22 said:
The TotK was scheduled to launch in 2022 or maybe even Holiday 2021 (pre-covid). So the reasoning is kinda out of place. If the TotK had launched in 2022 (as publicly intended) it would still launch without hardware and when the new hardware would come out people will still be waiting years for the next entry.
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... Yes?

I'm just talking about why I don't expect 3D Mario to launch before the Switch 2.

I don't think Nintendo would be comfortable with both of those franchises being off the Switch 2 for so long.
 
Sunshinemario said:
If we get a new 3D Mario for Switch, it’s 100% Odyssey 2. Don’t see why else they wouldn’t just wait for the next console otherwise
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That would really not be on my bingo card. But I don't think it's really possible. They haven't made DLC for it or anything, they are aparently switching to LunchPack engine too.
 
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
... Yes?

I'm just talking about why I don't expect 3D Mario to launch before the Switch 2.

I don't think Nintendo would be comfortable with both of those franchises being off the Switch 2 for so long.
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A new Mario Kart would sell better than a new 3D Mario
9-Volt said:
My own guess for this year's big Mario game is Mario vs DK, simply named as Mario vs Donkey Kong 23. An ode to one of the best Game Boy games ever made, a true successor. Will have both 3D and 2D stages and option to play as Movie Mario and Movie DK. And a custom stage maker.
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You’ll get March of the Minis 6 and you’ll like it.
 
Mario Kart is an ESSENTIAL year 1 game. If the next console releases Holiday 2024, there will be a MK game before the 2nd holiday for sure. It is their biggest IP afterall. I do think they started working on the next Mario Kart game but since the pro was shelved/postponed for a successor, they probably just realized they will need to support the Switch longer and decided to make new tracks for it.

Zelda BoTW and ToTK will probably have remasters for the launch. It will have a new MK launch year. It will probably have Metroid Prime 4 as a big title for the more mature audience. You add the smaller titles and it's fine.

They don't need a huge Odyssey/Botw combo year one. Before Switch they were in the TRANCHES. General public's perception of Nintendo was awful and they laughed at the Switch reveal and the price point. They changed that big time that we don't even realize that.

Right now, many people are already expecting the successor and just carrying on what Switch started with the titles i mentioned will succeed. Mario 3D could come year 2 and new Zelda game around Year 3 and it would be fine. But i think they will do another Zelda remake to showcase the 4K graphics like they did with the 3D and Oot and the HD with WW. Like Ocarina of Time or Twilight Princess in 4K in the first 2 years would be great.
 
If they have Mario Kart for launch (which they would have) then they won. Launch it with something singleplayer too (Luigi's Mansion 4) and you are good to go.
 
Magic-Man said:
Sometimes the bad news is directly in front of you all along. You just don't want to believe it's real.
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I feel you. For me the bad news right in front of us is TOTK sucking. Making the game that lags when you glide long distance have sky islands was a baffling approach. Underground areas would've been a lot more appropriate for the hardware
 
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Sunshinemario said:
A new Mario Kart would sell better than a new 3D Mario

You’ll get March of the Minis 6 and you’ll like it.
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Cool, so

1. We don't know how far into development that is
2. Even if game X would sell better than 3D Mario, you generally want as many of your 25m+ selling IPs on new hardware as fast as is reasonable

Right now, we're looking at

Pokemon Gen 10: November 2025 or November 2026 (possibly cross-gen)
Next mainline 3D Zelda: 2028-2029

Then we have these other IPs

Massive tier:

Animal Crossing (unclear)
Mario Kart (unclear)

Huge tier:

3D Mario (unclear)
Smash Bros (VERY unclear)

Very big tier:

RingFit
Splatoon (would guess 2026-2027)
Mario Party (next one is probably 2024 and will definitely be cross-gen at most)
Luigi's Mansion (next one is probably late 2025-2026)

Basically, Nintendo has 10 really big franchises. The more of these have late entries on the Switch, the fewer can push Switch 2. This isn't as big of an issue if none of these franchises have development issues, but a lot of AAA games do. It seems like a pretty big risk to release the next 3D Mario before the Switch 2.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Cool, so

1. We don't know how far into development that is
2. Even if game X would sell better than 3D Mario, you generally want as many of your 25m+ selling IPs on new hardware as fast as is reasonable

Right now, we're looking at

Pokemon Gen 10: November 2025 or November 2026 (possibly cross-gen)
Next mainline 3D Zelda: 2028-2029

Then we have these other IPs

Massive tier:

Animal Crossing (unclear)
Mario Kart (unclear)

Huge tier:

3D Mario (unclear)
Smash Bros (VERY unclear)

Very big tier:

RingFit
Splatoon (would guess 2026-2027)
Mario Party (next one is probably 2024 and will definitely be cross-gen at most)
Luigi's Mansion (next one is probably late 2025-2026)

Basically, Nintendo has 10 really big franchises. The more of these have late entries on the Switch, the fewer can push Switch 2. This isn't as big of an issue if none of these franchises have development issues, but a lot of AAA games do. It seems like a pretty big risk to release the next 3D Mario before the Switch 2.
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I’m not saying I think it makes much sense to release 3D Mario on current hardware either. What I am saying is that Mario Kart is more than capable of handling a console launch all by itself.
 
Sunshinemario said:
I’m not saying I think it makes much sense to release 3D Mario on current hardware either. What I am saying is that Mario Kart is more than capable of handling a console launch all by itself.
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It's not so much a console launch in particular (that probably doesn't matter much as the Switch sold so much that it will sell out for a few months right away), but just having a consistent lineup of games that keep up sales and interest.
 
Y'all the next Smash game will probably be Smash Ultimate with a new mode added. Don't expect anything more tbh. They clearly made the game so they could take a break of it for a few years and unless it comes at the end of the life of the next console, i don't think it's necessary to go through the whole Smash thing again.
 
Golden said:
Y'all the next Smash game will probably be Smash Ultimate with a new mode added. Don't expect anything more tbh. They clearly made the game so they could take a break of it for a few years and unless it comes at the end of the life of the next console, i don't think it's necessary to go through the whole Smash thing again.
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I think Smash Ultimate + would be very good, but Smash has so many licensing pitfalls that it's hard to speculate on it.
 
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Golden said:
Y'all the next Smash game will probably be Smash Ultimate with a new mode added. Don't expect anything more tbh. They clearly made the game so they could take a break of it for a few years and unless it comes at the end of the life of the next console, i don't think it's necessary to go through the whole Smash thing again.
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Yeah, I think this is exactly what will happen. And pack in with all the DLC fighters.
 
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Golden said:
Y'all the next Smash game will probably be Smash Ultimate with a new mode added. Don't expect anything more tbh. They clearly made the game so they could take a break of it for a few years and unless it comes at the end of the life of the next console, i don't think it's necessary to go through the whole Smash thing again.
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I feel like the DLC passes are already "Ultimate+" tbh? I think the next Smash game will be a new one but like you I don't expect it to happen for a long time.
 
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So we've got more hardware doom and gloom, huh?

I won't pretend to know what to think at this juncture, but I do hope we get a Direct in the next few weeks so the software picture is filled out a little more. I'm really more than sorted until Zelda - Fire Emblem Engage and Octopath 2 preordered; A Space for the Unbound and Chained Echoes to be bought on payday next week.
 
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