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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

WHEN

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SirShorse said:
if nothing happens this week?
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I was talking about September 1st Direct as soon as middle of August. They laughted at me. You are loosing hope once again it seems. Patience is a skill some of you must master better.
 
After handing out over 10k Yeahs I've come to realize a few things:
  • My Yeah count hasn't gone down, in fact it feels like it has only grown since I started giving out more Yeahs
  • Giving people more Yeahs has only marginally improved their lives
  • Me giving out Yeahs and receiving Yeahs does nothing to address the fundamental issues with the Yeah-system, if anything it further reinforces and legitimizes it
  • The most tangible benefit is that I get to feel good about giving people many Yeahs and get praised in return

It's basically like billionaire philantropy
 
We countin' Yeah! statistics?

3875 received, 9208 given. I'm feeling pretty good for giving out as much love as I do.

LonkFromPA said:
🤔 🤔 🤔
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Has anyone cross referenced these numbers with other unknown titles that received server side updates? I'm curious if they're all individual unique titles or if they're the same ones that keep getting updated periodically.

Baobab said:
the next crossover is here:

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Masterful
 
Guys... I admire your optimism, but.. we're not getting a Direct on the 1st of September. I'm sorry to break the bad news to you all. Here, have a cookie as an apology. 🍪
 
Brofield said:
We countin' Yeah! statistics?

3875 received, 9208 given. I'm feeling pretty good for giving out as much love as I do.


Has anyone cross referenced these numbers with other unknown titles that received server side updates? I'm curious if they're all individual unique titles or if they're the same ones that keep getting updated periodically.


Masterful
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Have another yeah
 
Did not realize that posting my Yeah! ratio would spur a conversation about the fundamentals of Yeah!ing, but I am honoured nonetheless. I was laughing while I made that post cuz I was thinking, “damn this is such a stupid post.”

With that being said, I am happy to announce that I am becoming Fami’s version of MrBeast:

WHATS UP GUYS it’s me MRSWITCHUM and today I’ll be handing out 100,000 YEAH!S to whoever can BEST COMPLIMENT ME because I am DEEPLY INSECURE and RELY ON INTERNET POINTS to boost my SELF-ESTEEM
 
I’m legitimately started to get really excited about a Direct now. Up until now it’s been a fun conversational topic but I can feel my hype level starting to rise for real
 
LukasManak22 said:
Why there is going to be a Nintendo Direct on September 1st

Having Direct in September is not matter of if but rather when. In this post I will tell you why will team September 1st win.

There has been September Direct every single year since 2016, I am listing here every date when Direct happened and next to it when Tokyo Game Show was taking place in that year.
September 1st 2016​
TGS starting on September 15th
September 13th 2017TGS starting on September 21st
September 13th* 2018TGS starting on September 20th

*Direct was delayed due to earthquake in Japan, it was pushed back by one week to September 13th from September 6th.

September 4th 2019TGS starting on September 14th
September 17th 2020TGS starting on September 23st
September 23th 2021TGS starting on September 30th
September xx 2022TGS starting on September 15th



As you can all see, all of the Directs took place before the TGS started so that Nintendo could announce games from their partners that they can showcase at TGS. So we are looking for a Direct that takes place before September 15th. All the Directs took place around 1 or 2 weeks before TGS started.

But we can’t just look at past dates and figure out what will happen, that’s not how Nintendo works.

This week is empty, yes some might say that the Direct this week will interrupt Splatoon’s marketing and that might be true but am not really supporting this logic. Because if the Direct takes place on September 1st (2nd in Japan and EU) that is one whole week before Splatoon launches. Usually when Direct ends Nintendo will tweet about the games that were featured there for one or two days and that’s it. They don’t look back and say „Hey look, here is another reminder that you saw new BOTW2 trailer 4 days ago“ and so on.

I would say the Direct taking place in the Splatoon week this is also not a good spot, since you need to put out reviews for Splatoon. Going by last of their major releases the embargo for Strikers dropped on Wednesday while the Xenoblade Chronicles 3 was Tuesday so it will be either 6th Tuesday or 7th Wednesday for reviews. That leaves a very little possibility to announce or air Direct on these dates. There is also a Apple Event happening on 7th and rumored Sony showcase on 8th. I would guess that Nintendo don’t care since they held a Direct in September 2017/8 day after Apple event but am just posting this for full context. The Direct also can't take place on 8th since that would already be 9th in JP and EU and I think doing Direct on Splatoon 3 release date is literally out of the question that's for sure.

One last week that is possible is second week of September from Monday 12th to Wednesday 14th (TGS starts on the 15th but Direct imo can’t take place in JP the same date as TGS starts). Some people say it will happen since Splatoon 3 will be out by then. If we exclude all possible days that week we really come out with one single date and that is.

Announcement on Monday 12th.

Direct taking place on Tuesday 13th in US (14th midnight in most of Europe and 14th in the morning in Japan).

Sounds good.

But I have one big problem with this date.

Direct would take place just one single day before TGS starts. One day imo isn’t enough for a titles announced in the Direct to then showcase at TGS next day. If it would be 3 to 4 days I would be on team that week, but the one day window is just so small that this opporunity is basically non existent.

And that brings me to the actual date of the Direct.

September 1st.

Announcement taking place on August 31st at 23:00 JST for a show on September 1st in NA, 2nd midnight CEST and 2nd morning in Japan.

If you may be wondering if it's problem that the Direct announcement will be different month than the Direct itself. This isn't the problem. As shown in the past:
September 1st 2016 Direct announced last day of August, April 1st 2015 Direct announced last day in March, Smash Ultimate Direct on November 1st 2018 announced in last day of October and list goes on and on.

Also it will never be week of Splatoon because of reviews. If the reviews drop on Tuesday they can't announce Direct on Tuesday 6th. And if they try to announce Direct on Wednesday 7th that will already be air date 9th in Japan (fucking Splatoon's release date).

Last but not least shout out to all of the other 65 people who also voted for team this week. We got this. See you on Wednesday.
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for anyone who hasn’t read this post yet
 
Nintendo has been announcing a LOT of stuff 2 days in advance recently. I would say an announcement tomorrow is entirely possible.
 
switchum said:
Hey. Please don’t feel stupid.

If there’s anything I’ve learned about Famiboards, it’s that it is genuinely one of the most uplifting, kind, safe places I’ve ever been to on the Internet.

I know you won’t be judged here. So just post to your heart’s content and know that your posts (no matter how you may feel about them) are always welcome here.
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Thank you for your post. I really like Famiboards for being the best forum I ever could imagine. I just really have low self esteem. I often feel as if I annoy everyone I interact with and should just shut up and stop giving my opinion that I perceive as naive and stupid. I know that this is a irrational feeling and that I should be more positive about myself but it‘s sometimes not easy.

I‘m sorry to get so personal to an otherwise fun initial post you made.

Don‘t want to interrupt the excitement around the direct and I hope @LukasManak22 and his believers get all their dreams fulfilled.
 
lexony said:
Thank you for your post. I really like Famiboards for being the best forum I ever could imagine. I just really have low self esteem. I often feel as if I annoy everyone I interact with and should just shut up and stop giving my opinion that I perceive as naive and stupid. I know that this a irrational feeling and that I should be more positive about myself but it‘s sometimes not easy.

I‘m sorry to get so personal to an otherwise fun initial post you made.

Don‘t want to interrupt the excitement around the direct and I hope @LukasManak22 and his believers get all their dreams fulfilled.
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I can relate to this more than you think. Check your private messages
 
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In 2021 the Nintendo Direct was 165 hours before TGS.

In 2020 the Nintendo Direct Mini: Partner Showcase was 60 hours before TGS.

In 2019 the Nintendo Direct was 213 hours before TGS.

In 2018 the Nintendo Direct was 189 hours before TGS.

In 2017 the Nintendo Direct was 213 hours before TGS.

On average in the last five years, Directs have occurred 195 hours before TGS, with a standard deviation of 22.978, sans the 2020 outlier. This year's TGS begins at 6:00 PM PT on September 14. Therefore, the Direct will occur between Monday, September 5 at 4:01 PM PT and Wednesday, September 7 at 1:59 PM PT, or on Tuesday, September 6 at 3:00 PM PT if you would like a precise date.
 
I just want to know if toothpaste chan is real, is that too much to ask, Nintendo?

Well, that, and Prime.
 
At this rate, if the Direct gets announced for the 1st, I'll be happier for LukasManak more than for the Direct itself
 
I think it would be helpful to remember that there are more things than one source (Nate) pointing to a September Direct:

  • firstly, most obviously, the 2 weeks before TGS have been the most consistent single point on the calendar for Nintendo Directs for six consecutive years now. Nintendo like that spot and use that spot every year.
  • while Nintendo didn't hold a general Direct this June, following E3's cancellation, there's zero indication they've dropped the Direct branding. They've done the Partner Showcase as well as game specific Directs over the summer. I've not really seen this as a common suggestion, but sometimes people are quick to assume that the general presentation format is dead, or that Nintendo actively want to kill it off, especially after 2020. Even when they don't do a general presentation, Nintendo go out of their way to keep using the Direct branding.
  • Jeff Grubb has been talking about a Direct, including first party announcements he expects very soon, which indicates a general presentation.
  • less directly and more speculatively, Nintendo haven't made any major software announcements since February and, bar Zelda, their 2023 release calendar is empty. At some point, they need to make their own announcements, including announcements for games that would launch in the final quarter of their fiscal year (January to March 2023).

Really, the first point has remained the important one all along. TGS is happening and Nintendo have held a Direct before it every year for six years.
 
frog said:
In 2021 the Nintendo Direct was 165 hours before TGS.

In 2020 the Nintendo Direct Mini: Partner Showcase was 60 hours before TGS.

In 2019 the Nintendo Direct was 213 hours before TGS.

In 2018 the Nintendo Direct was 189 hours before TGS.

In 2017 the Nintendo Direct was 213 hours before TGS.

On average in the last five years, Directs have occurred 195 hours before TGS, with a standard deviation of 22.978, sans the 2020 outlier. This year's TGS begins at 6:00 PM PT on September 14. Therefore, the Direct will occur between Monday, September 5 at 4:01 PM PT and Wednesday, September 7 at 1:59 PM PT, or on Tuesday, September 6 at 3:00 PM PT if you would like a precise date.
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Before anybody does the "NINTENDO BREAK PATTERNS THO" response: it is the logic underlying and informing the pattern that is important.
 
Linkie3 said:
Whatever happens this week, I will forever be proud to have been part of the 18.6%
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Even if there's no Directs ever again, I will have just been happy to have joined in on the hype with all of you. It's so much fun to be a part of this community.
 
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