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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST3| Speculate Chronicles 3

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So, will September finally threat us with the cult classic?


horsemask.png
 
switchum said:
The ultimate shitpost enters its next phase tomorrow. I’ve got others helping me (some are even professionals if that gives you a hint.)

It may seem stupid to work this hard on a shitpost but it’s starting to mean a lot to me, and it’s becoming very special. You will see what I mean when I release it :)
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Oh great, now we’re the shitpost speculation thread :D
 
Hope you guys are having a nice weekend. I've been too busy with work while XC3 basically took over the rest of my spare time, so i haven't been following all the Direct speculation, but a presentation a week before TGS sounds more likely... And i don't believe we'll have to wait until next year for the full BOTW2 blowout
 
We will probably have an indie world soon enough.
That damn September direct better deliver cuz wew it's been a silent few months on news. If they have a trailer for Zelda and one for the Mario movie... oh god.
 
carlosfilho said:
Hope you guys are having a nice weekend. I've been too busy with work while XC3 basically took over the rest of my spare time, so i haven't been following all the Direct speculation, but a presentation a week before TGS sounds more likely... And i don't believe we'll have to wait until next year for the full BOTW2 blowout
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September 8th birthday direct for me please :) Birthday week would be equally good
 
Golden said:
We will probably have an indie world soon enough.
That damn September direct better deliver cuz wew it's been a silent few months on news. If they have a trailer for Zelda and one for the Mario movie... oh god.
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In the last two months:

  • A Partner Nintendo Direct
  • Mario + Rabbids 2 Showcase
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Direct
  • Bayonetta 3 Release Date trailer
  • Pokemon Presents
  • Splatoon 3 Direct
  • Kirby's Dream Buffet reveal
  • Mario Kart Wave 2 announcement and Release

From a marketing standpoint, Nintendo has not been more active this year than now.
 
SpookyTango said:
In the last two months:

  • A Partner Nintendo Direct
  • Mario + Rabbids 2 Showcase
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Direct
  • Bayonetta 3 Release Date trailer
  • Pokemon Presents
  • Splatoon 3 Direct
  • Kirby's Dream Buffet reveal
  • Mario Kart Wave 2 announcement and Release

From a marketing standpoint, Nintendo has not been more active this year than now.
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While this is true and I fully agree with you, there is one definite thing that's been lacking: Nintendo 1st-party new announcements (and BOTW2). While we've been given quite a few updates and good info lately, it's all been 3rd-party or updates for things we already know are coming (other than Kirby I suppose). I don't think there's been anything new announced since... the February Direct? Maybe? Again sans Kirby.

Don't get me wrong, I feel like things have been great lately and we've been getting fed well with all this stuff. But I also understand the people who really just want Metroid Prime, Fire Emblem, new Mario, or BOTW2 news, and why they'd feel like it's been a very slow summer.
 
My dream September Direct

  • Direct Opens with a new Pushmo game dropping on NSO+
  • The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HDer
  • The Sequel to the Sequel of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild is now in development.
  • Direct closes with the announcement of Animal Crossing Amiibo Festival 2 coming to Switch this holiday.
 
The fact that Nintendo's biggest teams are taking this long to deliver new games is disappointing and concerning.

The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal and Odyssey was reportedly finished in time for the Switch's launch and shelved for marketing reasons. Meaning the team has nothing to show for nearly 6 years.
Zelda Team will have taken 6+ years to release BOTW2, a same-engine sequel with heavy asset reuse.
Retro has been working on Prime 4 for 3+ years without any reveal, with one this year seeming more and more unlikely due to the lack of a big summer Direct.

I would have expected EPD8 to have a new title released by now, let alone have anything announced (especially if it is a same-engine sequel to Odyssey). I also would have expected BOTW2 to be out years earlier considering it's a same-engine sequel, with heavy asset reuse, that was announced over 3 years ago. And I would have expected Prime 4 to have been revealed last year at the earliest and this year at the latest.

These protracted development cycles are very concerning. COVID disruptions and HD dev costs only explain away so much.
 
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BigBoss said:
The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal
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Are people actually concerned? Probably just waiting for the movie trailer.
 
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BigBoss said:
The fact that Nintendo's biggest teams are taking this long to deliver new games is disappointing and concerning.

The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal and Odyssey was reportedly finished in time for the Switch's launch and shelved for marketing reasons. Meaning the team has nothing to show for nearly 6 years.
Zelda Team will have taken 6+ years to release BOTW2, a same-engine sequel with heavy asset reuse.
Retro has been working on Prime 4 for 3+ years without any reveal, with one this year seeming more and more unlikely due to the lack of a big summer Direct.

I would have expected EPD8 to have a new title released by now, let alone have anything announced (especially if it is a same-engine sequel to Odyssey). I also would have expected BOTW2 to be out years earlier considering it's a same-engine sequel, with heavy asset reuse, that was announced over 3 years ago. And I would have expected Prime 4 to have been revealed last year at the earliest and this year at the latest.

These protracted development cycles are very concerning. COVID disruptions and HD dev costs only explain away so much.
Click to expand...
BOTW2 and 3D Mario I get, but Prime has had a normal dev cycle so far. They were still hiring people two years ago. The game just isn't ready yet.
 
BigBoss said:
The fact that Nintendo's biggest teams are taking this long to deliver new games is disappointing and concerning.

The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal and Odyssey was reportedly finished in time for the Switch's launch and shelved for marketing reasons. Meaning the team has nothing to show for nearly 6 years.
Zelda Team will have taken 6+ years to release BOTW2, a same-engine sequel with heavy asset reuse.
Retro has been working on Prime 4 for 3+ years without any reveal, with one this year seeming more and more unlikely due to the lack of a big summer Direct.

I would have expected EPD8 to have a new title released by now, let alone have anything announced (especially if it is a same-engine sequel to Odyssey). I also would have expected BOTW2 to be out years earlier considering it's a same-engine sequel, with heavy asset reuse, that was announced over 3 years ago. And I would have expected Prime 4 to have been revealed last year at the earliest and this year at the latest.

These protracted development cycles are very concerning. COVID disruptions and HD dev costs only explain away so much.
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I totally get the sentiment but I feel the concerns online recently are unwarranted. We can speculate all we want but you are just giving yourself more anxiety.

The narrative that "it uses previous assets ergo it should come out sooner" is uninformed, specially if you are not in the dev team. I code as part of my work/research and trust me that even using previously known code/assets/formulas it only speeds up so much if you are trying something new. Optimization is a pain.

In the end take it easy, the games will come out when they come out. And if you know Nintendo they dont announce games till they are at most 1 year away, exceptions being BOTW and Prime 4 (that a whole can of worms).
 
BigBoss said:
The fact that Nintendo's biggest teams are taking this long to deliver new games is disappointing and concerning.

The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal and Odyssey was reportedly finished in time for the Switch's launch and shelved for marketing reasons. Meaning the team has nothing to show for nearly 6 years.
Zelda Team will have taken 6+ years to release BOTW2, a same-engine sequel with heavy asset reuse.
Retro has been working on Prime 4 for 3+ years without any reveal, with one this year seeming more and more unlikely due to the lack of a big summer Direct.

I would have expected EPD8 to have a new title released by now, let alone have anything announced (especially if it is a same-engine sequel to Odyssey). I also would have expected BOTW2 to be out years earlier considering it's a same-engine sequel, with heavy asset reuse, that was announced over 3 years ago. And I would have expected Prime 4 to have been revealed last year at the earliest and this year at the latest.

These protracted development cycles are very concerning. COVID disruptions and HD dev costs only explain away so much.
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It's most likely due to the relatively small of amount developers Nintendo has for working on the equivalent of late 7th gen and early 8th gen AAA titles. With that in mind, 6+ years accounting for COVID makes sense seeing as that lost them many months of work. I'd imagine with BotW2 it is designing the expansions to the world + tweaking the new abilities that could be very problematic with old content such as phasing through floors/ceilings. Prime 4 has spent the majority of its dev time in a pandemic at this point, but I do agree that seeing nothing of it by the end of this year would be very concerning.
 
I've said it before but you guys need to stop looking at hypothetical development times for games you've made up in your mind. No point in being concerned about supposed development issues Nintendo have had when nobody here even knows what Nintendo EPD at large is even working on and what those games look like.
 
Magic-Man said:
BOTW2 and 3D Mario I get, but Prime has had a normal dev cycle so far. They were still hiring people two years ago. The game just isn't ready yet.
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I agree, it's the most normal dev cycle out of the bunch. But if Retro goes this year without showing anything I'll start being more concerned, and that's increasingly looking like the case considering the lack of a big Summer Direct. Could they show it off in a September Direct? Sure but they usually save those type of prestige, far-off announcements for Summer events.
 
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Dardan Sandiego said:
I've said it before but you guys need to stop looking at hypothetical development times for games you've made up in your mind. No point in being concerned about supposed development issues Nintendo have had when nobody here even knows what Nintendo EPD at large is even working on and what those games look like.
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The lack of announcements is a justification in of itself. EPD8 has gone 5+ years without a single announcement, that's unusual and a cause for concern.

It's not any different from the speculation around Retro when they went MIA from 2014-2019.
 
BigBoss said:
The fact that Nintendo's biggest teams are taking this long to deliver new games is disappointing and concerning.

The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal and Odyssey was reportedly finished in time for the Switch's launch and shelved for marketing reasons. Meaning the team has nothing to show for nearly 6 years.
Zelda Team will have taken 6+ years to release BOTW2, a same-engine sequel with heavy asset reuse.
Retro has been working on Prime 4 for 3+ years without any reveal, with one this year seeming more and more unlikely due to the lack of a big summer Direct.

I would have expected EPD8 to have a new title released by now, let alone have anything announced (especially if it is a same-engine sequel to Odyssey). I also would have expected BOTW2 to be out years earlier considering it's a same-engine sequel, with heavy asset reuse, that was announced over 3 years ago. And I would have expected Prime 4 to have been revealed last year at the earliest and this year at the latest.

These protracted development cycles are very concerning. COVID disruptions and HD dev costs only explain away so much.
Click to expand...

Buddy do you know how long it takes for games to be made these days? 4 to 6 years is about typical. Then you throw Covid into the mix. So yes, Covid disruptions and HD development explain a lot, in fact, they explain all of it. I know you want to hand wave these things but things like facts get in the way of concern trolling but they shouldn't be ignored because they are obvious reasons for the things you are complaining about.
 
SirArthur said:
I totally get the sentiment but I feel the concerns online recently are unwarranted. We can speculate all we want but you are just giving yourself more anxiety.

The narrative that "it uses previous assets ergo it should come out sooner" is uninformed, specially if you are not in the dev team. I code as part of my work/research and trust me that even using previously known code/assets/formulas it only speeds up so much if you are trying something new. Optimization is a pain.

In the end take it easy, the games will come out when they come out. And if you know Nintendo they dont announce games till they are at most 1 year away, exceptions being BOTW and Prime 4 (that a whole can of worms).
Click to expand...
Same engine sequels with reused asset taking less time has been the standard/expectation since the dawn of the games industry. Majora's Mask was made in a year, Vice City was made a year, Galaxy 2 only took 2 and a half, etc. Obviously game development takes longer now and anything can happen during any game's individual development. But the expectation that a same-engine sequel, especially one that's reusing the entire overworld, should take less time to develop is absolutely reasonable.
 
HockeyBird said:
Buddy do you know how long it takes for games to be made these days? 4 to 6 years is about typical. Then you throw Covid into the mix. So yes, Covid disruptions and HD development explain a lot, in fact, they explain all of it. I know you want to hand wave these things but things like facts get in the way of concern trolling but they shouldn't be ignored because they are obvious reasons for the things you are complaining about.
Click to expand...
Just because you disagree with an argument doesn't make it "concern trolling", that's BS. COVID disruptions and HD development don't explain all of it, even if they are a big factor. Nintendo's lack of man power to consistently handle their marquee projects is the bigger issue.
 
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BigBoss said:
Same engine sequels with reused asset taking less time has been the standard/expectation since the dawn of the games industry. Majora's Mask was made in a year, Vice City was made a year, Galaxy 2 only took 2 and a half, etc. Obviously game development takes longer now and anything can happen during any game's individual development. But the expectation that a same-engine sequel, especially one that's reusing the entire overworld, should take less time to develop is absolutely reasonable.
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Yup, I agree. Covid is one reason why such expectations couldn’t be met.

I believe the other one is that BotW2 and the next Mario game just aren’t the iterative sequels that people think they are. In the case of Zelda, they haven’t communicated this well yet (people are still in the mindset that it’s just fancier DLC for BotW) and as for Mario, it’s fans awaiting Odyssey 2 when the next thing is probably something different. Of course it’s all speculation on my part, but I think that when they properly reveal both titles, we’ll see how different they are from BotW and Odyssey and completely understand their lengthy developments.
 
BigBoss said:
Same engine sequels with reused asset taking less time has been the standard/expectation since the dawn of the games industry. Majora's Mask was made in a year, Vice City was made a year, Galaxy 2 only took 2 and a half, etc. Obviously game development takes longer now and anything can happen during any game's individual development. But the expectation that a same-engine sequel, especially one that's reusing the entire overworld, should take less time to develop is absolutely reasonable.
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Bringing examples of pre HD-era games is hilarious because its what everyone uses as an argument. FF 1-6 came out in the less time than 15 is from 16. So please shelve those comments.

Again, unless you are in the dev team you have no idea how the engine, mechanics and systems works and what their goal is. We barely know the goal of the game outside the floating islands. Plus scope always changes during development, and since they are in no hurry to release the game they can experiment away.
 
BigBoss said:
The fact that Nintendo's biggest teams are taking this long to deliver new games is disappointing and concerning.

The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal and Odyssey was reportedly finished in time for the Switch's launch and shelved for marketing reasons. Meaning the team has nothing to show for nearly 6 years.
Zelda Team will have taken 6+ years to release BOTW2, a same-engine sequel with heavy asset reuse.
Retro has been working on Prime 4 for 3+ years without any reveal, with one this year seeming more and more unlikely due to the lack of a big summer Direct.

I would have expected EPD8 to have a new title released by now, let alone have anything announced (especially if it is a same-engine sequel to Odyssey). I also would have expected BOTW2 to be out years earlier considering it's a same-engine sequel, with heavy asset reuse, that was announced over 3 years ago. And I would have expected Prime 4 to have been revealed last year at the earliest and this year at the latest.

These protracted development cycles are very concerning. COVID disruptions and HD dev costs only explain away so much.
Click to expand...
You are making a lot of assumptions here.
 
BigBoss said:
The lack of announcements is a justification in of itself. EPD8 has gone 5+ years without a single announcement, that's unusual and a cause for concern.

It's not any different from the speculation around Retro when they went MIA from 2014-2019.
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This argument hinges on the idea that EPD8 is a singular, isolated entity that has to put out a new game in a set amount of time "because it's always been that way". But this thinking in groups is outdated and has been for a while. Several people who were credited on Odyssey have worked on other projects like Ring Fit Adventure, Super Mario Maker 2, Labo etc. depending on their priority. Clearly Nintendo wasn't stressed about getting out a new 3D Mario after Odyssey, the 3D World port, Bowser's Fury and 3D All-Stars.

It might be a hard pill to swallow for some people invested in Nintendo development speculation but we simply cannot infer from the limited information we have what people and "teams" are working on, for how long and in what capacity. We often only find out after games have been released and people can go through the credits or can somewhat piece it together through interviews. That Nintendo is lacking in manpower is obvious but we know that because they've announced big expansion plans, not because they can't hit an arbitrary number of games.
 
So today we rest and tomorrow the pre-TGS Direct speculation kicks off, right? I’m excited, it’s been a while since checks notes June?
 
For as much hiring nintendo is doing, their teams are definitely small if compared to other AAA teams, so its not a surprise that these games take long. Also pandemic, no experience in doing AAA titles at nintendo mostly, etc
 
Magic-Man said:
There's absolutely no way Odyssey 2/New 3D Mario has been in development for the same amount of time as BOTW2. There's just no shot. Especially if it's a sequel and not a brand new thing.
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I can't know for sure of when any of them entered development tho.
Breath of the Wild 1 started development January 2013(Skyward Sword released November 2011, probably it was completed before then).
We got Breath of the Wild 2 announced E3 2019, for all we know it could've started development like late 2018. Wouldn't be unheard of as BotW was at development less than 1.5 years when it was revealed, we got Shin Megami Tensei V revealed before it entered full development, probably the same thing with Bayonetta 3 and etc.
Super Mario Odyssey 1 and Breath of the Wild had roughly the same development time too, around 4 years each. EPD Tokyo could have spent the time from 2017-2019(the hirings) just on pre production and prototyping and the game only entering full development in 2019. COVID happened, they are probably also working at another game at the same time, so it taking more time definitely isn't far fetched. BotW 2 is taking more time than 1 to develop, Odyssey 2 could take too - nevermind if it's a brand new type of 3D Mario.
No matter how it is I don't think it would be shelved for Switch 1, just like Xbox games weren't shelved for Xbox One. It could come in 30fps tho which would be acceptable for an open world game. But again we never no, it's not like Bowser's Fury was too much from the Switch, just that game was a side game not even developed by EPD Tokyo, Odyssey was massive and was 60FPS.
 
Mr Doggo said:
For as much hiring nintendo is doing, their teams are definitely small if compared to other AAA teams, so its not a surprise that these games take long. Also pandemic, no experience in doing AAA titles at nintendo mostly, etc
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In Japan you can’t get bigger than Nintendo EPD, is the biggest studio in the country. The fact that almost all their studios are Japan only limits how much they can grow to some degree and Nintendo has shown no interest in growing outside of Japan more than expanding their already existing studios.
 
Blue Monty said:
In Japan you can’t get bigger than Nintendo EPD, is the biggest studio in the country. The fact that almost all their studios are Japan only limits how much they can grow to some degree and Nintendo has shown no interest in growing outside of Japan more than expanding their already existing studios.
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Yep, they're definitely making the right call by expanding EPD instead of throwing money at the west. It's much better to grow internally and maintain the company's identity than taking the shorter path of acquisitions and western investment
 
BigBoss said:
The fact that Nintendo's biggest teams are taking this long to deliver new games is disappointing and concerning.

The 3D Mario Team has been missing since 2017 with zero announcements. Especially concerning since their involvement in Bowser's Fury was very minimal and Odyssey was reportedly finished in time for the Switch's launch and shelved for marketing reasons. Meaning the team has nothing to show for nearly 6 years.
Zelda Team will have taken 6+ years to release BOTW2, a same-engine sequel with heavy asset reuse.
Retro has been working on Prime 4 for 3+ years without any reveal, with one this year seeming more and more unlikely due to the lack of a big summer Direct.

I would have expected EPD8 to have a new title released by now, let alone have anything announced (especially if it is a same-engine sequel to Odyssey). I also would have expected BOTW2 to be out years earlier considering it's a same-engine sequel, with heavy asset reuse, that was announced over 3 years ago. And I would have expected Prime 4 to have been revealed last year at the earliest and this year at the latest.

These protracted development cycles are very concerning. COVID disruptions and HD dev costs only explain away so much.
Click to expand...
The thing is: besides the fact that development times for Switch games are already higher, COVID happening and the same engine sequels also being more ambitious than their predecessors, we have the fact that most of the games we get concerned about development time didn't start development when we thought they did.

It would be concerning if BotW 2 started development in early 2017 and took 6 years of full development. But it probably didn't. Just like Breath of the Wild didn't have 5.5 years of development, it had 4. Nor did Super Mario Galaxy have 5.5 years, it had 3.

We saw again and again Switch games being announced even before entering full development (Bayonetta 3, SMT V).
I know, at E3 2019 we got excited on the Zelda trailer looking like they already had been developing it for awhile. But they probably weren't, just like hirings suggested. Full development of it must've started like late 2018. Just like BotW started January 2013 and not November 2011.

EPD Tokyo games, for all we know, must've started full development sometime in 2019.

After Odyssey and Breath of the Wild 3D Mario and 3D Zelda are much bigger than they've ever been, and expectations for whatever is coming next is sky high. The sequels can use the same engine, assets and still take forever to develop because their scope and overall content is much bigger than the game they're building upon.

Metroid Prime 4 is just a case of it starting early development in 2018 and they taking their time with a not gigantic team, and that game having to share staff with Remakester until late 2021.
 
Magic-Man said:
BOTW2 and 3D Mario I get, but Prime has had a normal dev cycle so far. They were still hiring people two years ago. The game just isn't ready yet.
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We were kinda expecting it to be completed earlier because we didn't get the whole picture of what was happening until late last year when we got to know Retro was handling a full remaster/remake of Prime 1 alongside Prime.
If they were developing only Prime 4, 5 years is kind of a lot of time for a non-open world game, but as not only COVID happened but they were also developing another game until last year, (also we don't know the scope of the game) they're doing just fine, taking their time and having a healthy dev cycle.
 
BigBoss said:
Same engine sequels with reused asset taking less time has been the standard/expectation since the dawn of the games industry. Majora's Mask was made in a year, Vice City was made a year, Galaxy 2 only took 2 and a half, etc. Obviously game development takes longer now and anything can happen during any game's individual development. But the expectation that a same-engine sequel, especially one that's reusing the entire overworld, should take less time to develop is absolutely reasonable.
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I think God of War Ragnarok and Horizon Forbidden West were both same engine sequels(with the first not even being open world) and those took ~5 years to make. And that's because they had immense dev teams working on them. We see the super AAA games taking like 3.5 years to make, but those have like 400+ people working on the game at the same time. With Nintendo it's like ~100. With the sole exception of leads, staff is fluid and go where they're needed the most to complete games. Animal Crossing New Horizons took a lot of people from 2017-2019, Splatoon 3 took a lot of people from 2019-2021, Breath of the Wild 2 and Odyssey 2 maybe had tighter teams for some time, and those sure will take a good chunk of personpower from EPD from 2020-2022.
 
DrDave said:
Yup, I agree. Covid is one reason why such expectations couldn’t be met.

I believe the other one is that BotW2 and the next Mario game just aren’t the iterative sequels that people think they are. In the case of Zelda, they haven’t communicated this well yet (people are still in the mindset that it’s just fancier DLC for BotW) and as for Mario, it’s fans awaiting Odyssey 2 when the next thing is probably something different. Of course it’s all speculation on my part, but I think that when they properly reveal both titles, we’ll see how different they are from BotW and Odyssey and completely understand their lengthy developments.
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Exactly!!
BotW has an open world sky and probably underground too. There's new abilities for Link, it can be like 3x bigger than the original. We were wrong to assume it would be a Majora's Mask/Galaxy 2 kind of iterative sequel just based on the information that we'll revisit the world and the assets reusing.
 
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I still think it’s funny how many times in the last 5 years I’ve thought Metroid Prime would for sure appear on Switch in some way and then the year comes to and end as I begin the cycle anew.

Is the remake of MP1 this year still the prevailing rumor? Feels highly unlikely at this point.
 
I definitely think it's possible BOTW2 hit a snag in development that caused internal delays, but Nintendo obviously got hit with issues in general due to COVID. I'm not fussed, games will come out when they do, but the recent strategy of only marketing in the last few months before release has its downsides I suppose.

As for 3D Mario, I'm not expecting it any earlier than late 2023. 3D World + Bowser's Fury is definitely meant to be the flagship 3D Mario for a good while.
 
Mekanos said:
I definitely think it's possible BOTW2 hit a snag in development that caused internal delays, but Nintendo obviously got hit with issues in general due to COVID. I'm not fussed, games will come out when they do, but the recent strategy of only marketing in the last few months before release has its downsides I suppose.

As for 3D Mario, I'm not expecting it any earlier than late 2023. 3D World + Bowser's Fury is definitely meant to be the flagship 3D Mario for a good while.
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I prefer not knowing when EPD X will release a game than having a Prime 4 situation in which we have been waiting for the game 5+ years and it will probably end up being 6/7 years :(
 
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