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StarTopic Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST|

When will the next general Direct (full or mini) be?

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bellydrum said:
Man, we have so many things tailored for me coming out this month and in the following several weeks, and I still feel like it's so far away

  • We don't know the exact release date for Banjo even though it's most likely imminent
  • Pokemon Legends: Arceus feels as far away as possible while still technically being "this month"
  • Kirby, Trifecta Stratagem, and Advance Wars are soon, but unfortunately on the other side of the desert we call February
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I’m hoping to get all of that though March is packed with things I want as someone who also owns the other consoles. At least I have horizon forbidden west for February
 
I accidentally posted this in the other thread, but it was meant for this one. So here's a cross-post:

I find it so fascinating that Nintendo could have a February Direct that has no (or almost no) new first-party games and it could still be a baller Direct. Like, they could show more Splatoon 3, Bayo 3, give us a Zelda title and window, an Advance Wars release date, a Kirby date and blowout, and maybe some third party stuff sprinkled in... and it'd be a great Direct.

And yet they'll probably have at least one new thing to show. Hype
 
ToniC139 said:
January: Pokemon Legends Arceus
February:
March: Advance Wars
April: Kirby and the Forgotten Land
May: Metroid Prime Remake, Pikmin Spin Off
June: new Mario (3D / 2D)
July: Splatoon 3, new Mario spin off
August: Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope, WWHD or TPHD
September: Bayonetta 3
October: Ring Fit 2, Donkey Kong
November: Breath of the Wild 2, Let's Go Johto
December: Xenoblade 3

:cool:
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It's so good that won't happen but oh my,... May, June, September, October, November and December...
 
Starphanluke said:
I accidentally posted this in the other thread, but it was meant for this one. So here's a cross-post:

I find it so fascinating that Nintendo could have a February Direct that has no (or almost no) new first-party games and it could still be a baller Direct. Like, they could show more Splatoon 3, Bayo 3, give us a Zelda title and window, an Advance Wars release date, a Kirby date and blowout, and maybe some third party stuff sprinkled in... and it'd be a great Direct.

And yet they'll probably have at least one new thing to show. Hype
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They will update their upcoming lineup but usually directs are reserved for new announcements, sometimes to a fault. The existing launches like triangle strategy may get a twitter/video in-depth deep dives instead. They can't help themselves reminding people about their big releases, but it's very rare they spend a lot of time (collectively) on reminding people of existing releases. I think it's going to be boring for the people who aren't interested in the game and isn't going to push more sales, and the people who are interested are already sold. At most we'll get a few minutes of trailer /voice over each for existing upcoming titles as a reminder on release dates, pre-order windows, special editions and such.
 
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Okay, Team January is the only answer. 11 pages discussing how we feel we don't know anything about Legends (despite they showing footage regularly) and it releases in days.

There got to be a Pokemon direct at the very least.

Yeah.

Team January won.
 
Long shot, but still hoping for a New Star Fox, Pilot Wings, or Wave Race this year lol

Even longer shot… SNES Sim City on NSO :D
 
Sorry friends.....but no more leaks until further notice.

I slipped on the ice and fell on my "source".....and I'm in some serious pain.
 
Marizza Pia Spiritto said:
Okay, Team January is the only answer. 11 pages discussing how we feel we don't know anything about Legends (despite they showing footage regularly) and it releases in days.

There got to be a Pokemon direct at the very least.

Yeah.

Team January won.
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It’s not Pokémon Direct Speculation, it’s NINTENDO Direct Speculation. And with that: Team Feb ALL day
 
ITSMILNER said:
Out of interest, is anyone expecting we will get a new Pokemon Let's Go game based on Gold/Silver or was the first one a one off? I quite enjoyed the first game
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Depends how it ends up performing relative to the other pokemon games on switch, I think. In direct comparison to SwSh, the ratio of sales is a bit low compared to past remakes, being
LetsGo/Swsh = 0.61.

Whereas on 3DS:
ORAS/XY=0.87

On DS :
HGSS/DP = 0.72

On GBA:
FRLG/RS = 0.74.

Now, of course, SwSh has almost certainly inflated sales because of not having a third version a year later like RS,DP did (though XY did not!)

I feel like it depends on how well the DP remakes do; if they significantly outperform LetsGo, then that spin off series will be quietly shelved for traditional remakes again. It still sold more than 13m copies though, so if they think they can outsource it to someone who can handle it on a good timescale, I can easily imagine seeing it again.
 
Linkstrikesback said:
Depends how it ends up performing relative to the other pokemon games on switch, I think. In direct comparison to SwSh, the ratio of sales is a bit low compared to past remakes
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Why would ratio matter. It's still one of the best selling remakes. They care about how much money their games make, and Let's Go made a lot. I agree that if BDSP does significantly better (which I doubt) we'll see more of that though. Or they could just have both lines of games
 
Lord Azrael said:
Why would ratio matter. It's still one of the best selling remakes. They care about how much money their games make, and Let's Go made a lot. I agree that if BDSP does significantly better (which I doubt) we'll see more of that though. Or they could just have both lines of games
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Because if the development time could be spent on a traditional remake that sells millions of copies more by default, there's basically not much reason to make a Let's go style one.

BDSP opened very strongly, stronger than past remakes, and were around the same as SwSh, at 6m first week sales.

Unless something seriously cataclysmic happened to mean it has no legs (we have no reason currently to think that's the case), it should cruise past Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee easily.
 
3 different types of Pokémon RPGs per generation i think it’s likely the future:

  • 3D Linear mainline game
  • 2D top down view remake
  • 3D big areas with action elements

Though, imo, for gen 9 would like they evolve the mainline games into a semi-linear rpg (like DQXI or SMTV) and the next Legends a fully 3D open world game.
 
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@Raccoon is it too late to solemnly and formally pledge myself to #TeamMarch?

It's going to be a release date announcement tweet year with extremely chibiroburn vibes.
 
Derachi said:
yup
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giphy.gif
 
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can't wait to order my celebratory subway sandwich on feb 8 when they announce their direct on February 9th
 
Linkstrikesback said:
Because if the development time could be spent on a traditional remake that sells millions of copies more by default, there's basically not much reason to make a Let's go style one.

BDSP opened very strongly, stronger than past remakes, and were around the same as SwSh, at 6m first week sales.

Unless something seriously cataclysmic happened to mean it has no legs (we have no reason currently to think that's the case), it should cruise past Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee easily.
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You were talking about the ratio of new gen to remakes.
 
Lord Azrael said:
You were talking about the ratio of new gen to remakes.
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... yes?

I'm not sure what part wasn't clear. My.line of thought was that there's a functional maximum audience size on the given platforms who will buy Pokémon games. But not everyone buys the remakes, and the new games give an idea as to what this maximum is. If a significant chunk of those don't want to then buy a let's go style game (as I think is the case suggested by the significantly worse performance of let's go relative to previous remakes Vs the current gen titles on the previous platforms), then it's an inefficient use of development time to do a remake in that style.

Previously between 72-87% of the audience picked up the remakes on the same hardware. Only 61% (and dropping with each sales update) of such did for let's go. Obviously assuming everyone who bought a remake bought a mainline game is handwavy and not exactly true, but it gives a ballpark.

There's enough reason to think that, with that combined with the strong performance of BDSP, that a let's go style game follow up would be throwing away a million+ sales for not much discernable reason
 
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Look, here is the post I will point to to say I'm right:

The Direct will be in February.

It will be either February 9th or 10th, with the announcement being the day before.

It MIGHT be the week after this. Maybe. But it's definitely within this window.

BOOK IT.
 
ika said:
It's so good that won't happen but oh my,... May, June, September, October, November and December...
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Looking at what is already announced, that schedule still seems too packed and they could push stuff out into 2023 (don't want that).

Ring Fit 2 is tricky IMO. You would have to sell game-only for people with the Ring-con already, as well as the full bundle for new players. Unless they go a route where the sequel has some new fitness peripheral (joy-con + kettle bell, joy-con + resistance bands) you get split SKUs. Maybe they go with digital-only and bundles have a pack-in code, IDK.
 
This is a March year. At whatever time people are expecting the February direct announcement tweet, that's when Nintendo tweet the release date for Advance Wars Rebootmake
 
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My second scenario after the most likely scenario of a February Direct after some sort of Pokemon presentation in January would be a Mini in January followed by a general in March, as in 2018. Mini to confirm dates for Kirby and Advance Wars, perhaps reveal a game(s) for May/June, then a March Direct which shows most of the year's remaining first-party line-up.

But I feel, given the titles we've already got confirmed, it makes more sense for Nintendo take the approach from 2019/21 - February Direct concentrating mostly, but not exclusively on first half games, followed by E3 to finalise things.
 
MisterSpo said:
a Mini in January followed by a general in March, as in 2018. Mini to confirm dates for Kirby and Advance Wars, perhaps reveal a game(s) for May/June, then a March Direct which shows most of the year's remaining first-party line-up.
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this is the Mina timeline and I think it's kind of likely

ironic that TeamJanuary is so weak this year when they have a better chance than usual
 
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All this fuss about a Direct when we are really waiting for the February Dane Showcase
 
Raccoon said:
the OP explains this in excruciating detail, actually

for the purposes of this thread derachi is right, we're only concerned about general directs, mini or full
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we'll see.

there's no dated game after Legends. we know nothing about Legends. they said they were showing more Zelda up from the coming months (after E3 2021) to the next year (2022)...which by the description sounds a lot like January 2022 (me being delulu). and we know this year is stacked. Plus, there are Dane games and apparently some devs were angry at them not announcing it last year or something.

so I wrote "at the very least" a Pokemon Direct should air in January. But that's not all there is within the realm of possibility. They're due a Direct!

#derachiisnotright

#TeamJanuary
 
Marizza Pia Spiritto said:
we'll see.

there's no dated game after Legends. we know nothing about Legends. they said they were showing more Zelda up from the coming months (after E3 2021) to the next year (2022)...which by the description sounds a lot like January 2022 (me being delulu). and we know this year is stacked. Plus, there are Dane games and apparently some devs were angry at them not announcing it last year or something.

so I wrote "at the very least" a Pokemon Direct should air in January. But that's not all there is within the realm of possibility. They're due a Direct!

#derachiisnotright

#TeamJanuary
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They’re gonna use Twitter to date a single game (probably Kirby) before their financial report at the very end of the month. There might be a day or two where we have zero dated games.
 
Derachi said:
They’re gonna use Twitter to date a single game (probably Kirby) before their financial report at the very end of the month. There might be a day or two where we have zero dated games.
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I don't know. Those weird Twitter drops were really prominent in 2020 when, you know, COVID dropped as well. Not saying they're not gonna do it again or that COVID has been flopping or that there's no more games being affected by COVID, but I assume that this is the year they're gonna organize their announcements a bit more evenly spread, considering they started doing so in 2021.
 
Kirby is the only game I could see Nintendo providing a release date for because it is probably the only game they have which could release in what's left of their current financial year, barring eShop surprises or NSO games.
 
hey remember the Yoshi release date Tweet?
  • Index
    • Marizza Pia Spiritto said:
    I don't know. Those weird Twitter drops were really prominent in 2020 when, you know, COVID dropped as well. Not saying they're not gonna do it again or that COVID has been flopping or that there's no more games being affected by COVID, but I assume that this is the year they're gonna organize their announcements a bit more evenly spread, considering they started doing so in 2021.
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    don't forget

     
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    • Raccoon said:
    don't forget

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    Was just about to edit my last post to point this out. 2019 has some interesting parallels to 2022 - big seller in January (Mario Bros v Pokemon Legends), a release schedule with multiple games without specific dates (2019 had Daemon x Machina, Fire Emblem, Luigi, Animal Crossing, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, 2022 has Zelda, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Mario + Rabbids (Japan), Advance Wars (RoW)), and a potential last release for the fourth quarter of the financial year (Yoshi's Crafted World v Kirby & the Forgotten Land).
     
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