OK another possibility has arrived:
This summer Nintendo tweets out the announcement of a Blue Ocean / casual game (e.g. Tomadachi Life 3, 1-2 Switch sequel) for release in August or September. Then around August they do a larger showcase announcing games for the rest of the fiscal year.
- with Switch slowing down, it makes sense they might not have enough for two more full directs this year. Those two Directs were always the two closest and a bit of a stretch to fill out at times anyway. This strategy would cover the same time frame in one direct.
- we already know they tweet Blue Ocean stuff separately from Directs
- leaves a lot of attention on Zelda, the mainstay which will continue to drive interest as long as people continue to make gundams on twitter, and Pikmin, the brand they have been trying to grow (Pikmin Bloom)
- gets something on the release calendar so they are not going 3+ months without releasing a game, not waiting too long to announce games that are coming later this year, and leaves them enough time to market holiday title(s)
This would also fit with the more pessimistic mood set by some insider types (e.g. Chris Dring saying he heard Nintendo is going later in the year, Andy Robinson and Jeff Grubb personally speculating that Nintendo is not going to do anything this summer).
